I would still only go as far as saying Geelong are one of about 7 sides that could win it. Every win banked at least makes top 4 more likely, which is an essential requirement. Sydney, GWS, Carlton and Geelong are probably in the first group (in that order) for now - but not much separates them. Collingwood, Melbourne and Port I'd consider slightly more on the "smokey" scale.Whilst I wouldn’t have Carlton ranked first (would have us around 3rd-5th) I don’t see how that is a massive issue. Are Sydney any less of a contender because they lost to Richmond? Are Adelaide any more of a contender because they beat Carlton? The rankings are just a projection. Geelong will lose games to lesser sides this year but it won’t change much come finals time.
Personally I would have GWS first. They lost to us and looked shakey against St Kilda. This time 2 years ago Melbourne were everyone’s pick and Geelong were 7th on the ladder.
If Geelong or Carlton get top 2 and don't play each other in week 1 they could become favourites. But it's still very possible for any of those sides to miss top 4.
The top 8 is almost always set at this time of year outside of maybe one team. The rest of the season will be shuffling within those 8 sides.