Autopsy AFL 2024 Round 7 - Cats v Blues Sat April 27th 4:35pm AEST (MCG)

[Mr Meow]

Posting facts isn't whinging. Enjoy the win but you aint winning the flag.

It sure is whinging.

We won the flag 2 years ago and were pencilled in for bottom 4 this year. Just happy for the likes of Holmes, Bruhn, Dempsey and O.Henry to get exposure while those aged 25 take a step up.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Missing;
McGovern
Saad
Cerra
Motlop
Cunningham
Fogarty
Marchbank
Martin
Fantasia
Docherty - season
Silvagni - season

Definite Outs;
Young
Owies
Cory Durdin
Binns
Ollie Hollands
Cowan
Carroll

Other outs dependant on team balance / oppo.

Honestly a few like for likes.

McGovern, saad, cerra, Martin are good players, the rest are horses for courses.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

We didn't play great at all.
We were well down in most key areas when it comes to season averages. Of course the opposition had a major say in that but a lot of players were down for long periods of the game.
Hawkins took one mark! Kicked a solitary behind.

Carlton will welcome back Saad and McGovern but their back-line is effectively set. Geelong get back Stewart and they lost a pretty handy midfielder 13 minutes into the third quarter.

If Voss plays both Pittonet/De Koning in the rematch, I think we see Conway/Stanley pairing up which should be an upgrade based on today's performances.

You did play great. It's two in form, top 6 sides playing. You can't expect to dominate or be perfect for 4 quarters.
Despite our poor kicking/decision making, we also played great at times. Just not for as long as Cats did.
When you've got Cameron, Hawk and now Henry, you don't have to worry about one of them having an off night if the others can pick up the slack. Some credit probably goes to Weitering there, but the sheer presence of Hawk prevents us from moving Weiters to one of the other two, especially when that would mean playing Young or Kemp on Hawk.

I'm not sure what you're implying about the missing players? Nobody's denying that Stewart isn't a huge out and losing Danger for a quarter and a bit is big too, but it's crazy not to think that we'd also be a different side with Doc (who we obviously won't get back this year), Cerra, Saad, Gov and Fogarty (Fog is far from a star, but so important to our structure and forward pressure this year and probablyour best role player). Less important players are Cuningham, Motlop, Silvagni, Marchbank and Martin, but they would all be in consideration for the best 23, or would be next in line to replace the previous 5 players if they were available. It would mean that we didn't have to play Young, Cowan, Carroll, Binns, or even an Owies or Durdin.

The win is a good one for you guys. The loss isn't the end of the world for us though and there are positives to take from it.
We've got a tough run for the next 6 or so weeks until we meet you guys again, so hopefully we've got some confidence out of this game, while understanding what it is we need to get better at before we get some players back.
Look forward to the rematch.

 

[Mr Meow]

I am stating the facts...which in this game Carlton had 24 tackles inside 50 for zero holding the ball.

And? Geelong had about 2 HTB's all game and caught Carlton players cold several times. They did not want to adjudicate on that decision and it went both ways.

 

[Bagger72]

It sure is whinging.

We won the flag 2 years ago and were pencilled in for bottom 4 this year. Just happy for the likes of Holmes, Bruhn, Dempsey and O.Henry to get exposure while those aged 25 take a step up.

Against a depleted side - congrats enjoy it.

 

[Bagger72]

And? Geelong had about 2 HTB's all game and caught Carlton players cold several times. They did not want to adjudicate on that decision and it went both ways.

Keep telling yourself that.

 

[CCurnow3votes]

7, of which 5 are difference makers but one will be out all season anyway. Bring 4 in and lose Cripps or Curnow, and Carlton face a bigger handicap.

Geelong with Stewart back, Guthrie and Stanley getting a stretch of games (both rusty today), Rohan integrated and Dangerfield in that form able to run out a game will help us too.

I’m not talking about what ifs - only the players missing from our best team.

Don’t forget we’ve only just got Walsh & Weitering back .

Again - we only lost tonight because we couldn’t convert our opportunities.

21 more inside 50’s!

I don’t see much upside for Geelong - your efficiency was brilliant tonight.

Ours cost us the game.

 

[Mr Meow]

You did play great. It's two in form, top 6 sides playing. You can't expect to dominate or be perfect for 4 quarters.
Despite our poor kicking/decision making, we also played great at times. Just not for as long as Cats did.
When you've got Cameron, Hawk and now Henry, you don't have to worry about one of them having an off night if the others can pick up the slack. Some credit probably goes to Weitering there, but the sheer presence of Hawk prevents us from moving Weiters to one of the other two, especially when that would mean playing Young or Kemp on Hawk.

I'm not sure what you're implying about the missing players? Nobody's denying that Stewart isn't a huge out and losing Danger for a quarter and a bit is big too, but it's crazy not to think that we'd also be a different side with Doc (who we obviously won't get back this year), Cerra, Saad, Gov and Fogarty (Fog is far from a star, but so important to our structure and forward pressure this year and probablyour best role player). Less important players are Cuningham, Motlop, Silvagni, Marchbank and Martin, but they would all be in consideration for the best 23, or would be next in line to replace the previous 5 players if they were available. It would mean that we didn't have to play Young, Cowan, Carroll, Binns, or even an Owies or Durdin.

The win is a good one for you guys. The loss isn't the end of the world for us though and there are positives to take from it.
We've got a tough run for the next 6 or so weeks until we meet you guys again, so hopefully we've got some confidence out of this game, while understanding what it is we need to get better at before we get some players back.
Look forward to the rematch.

Dangerfield had 46% game time and is usually 70%. He would've been very important for the last 1.5 quarters. The boys completely ran out of legs in the last 5-10 minutes after Monsoon Brisbane.

Otherwise, great post and points. If Carlton tidy up their disposals they will be a force.

 

[FootyLad0]

I am stating the facts...which in this game Carlton had 24 tackles inside 50 for zero holding the ball.

Yep,those are the breaks. I also stated facts for not just this game but the entire 2024 season.
Cats have yet to win a single FK count this year yet are 7-0

It’s almost like wins and losses are not dictated by umpiring.
Cats are the best transition team in the league, they’ll punish teams from end to end if you don’t capitalise on scoring.

Blues didn’t, Cats killed them on turnover.

 

[My Tilly]

Cerra, Saad, Gov, Doch and (potentially) Martin are the difference makers missing. And Fogarty's forward pressure would be very useful.

Collectively it amounts to more than Stewart missing, Dangerfield going down mid-game after starring and Stanley being rusty in his first game back. But that did leave us with three fairly sizable structural weaknesses today. Without Selwood, leadership alone from the first two is critical.

It isn't apples for apples with Carlton's deep midfield missing Cerra, to Geelong's B-cast losing Dangerfield mid-game.

It amounts to more than Stewart's absence but do they ultimately make them a better team in the grand scheme of things?

They still look like a team heavily reliant on a select few. This is why Collingwood will beat them next week as they will be team focused and get the most out of their role players to get it done.
Carlton feel a lot like Port Adelaide. The only difference is the MCG home factor which will help during September.

 

[joe444]

Against a depleted side - congrats enjoy it.

Sure are. It's getting a bit hard to read your posts from way up here in first place after nobody gave us a chance of being in it again this year.

But if Lachie F-f-f-fumble-ogarty is on your list of key players missing, I can still see the wishful thinking.

 

[Mr Meow]

I’m not talking about what ifs - only the players missing from our best team.

Don’t forget we’ve only just got Walsh & Weitering back .

Again - we only lost tonight because we couldn’t convert our opportunities.

21 more inside 50’s!

I don’t see much upside for Geelong - your efficiency was brilliant tonight.

Ours cost us the game.

No worries, I'm just letting you know that Curnow out would have neutrals toasting the effects of your absentees more than all of Martin, Fogarty, Gov and Cerra. Keep your midfield stars on the field and A grade KPP's, then you will keep having strong performances.

Inefficiency is bad football. That's what separates the best from the good, so often.

Good luck for your future games.

 

[carlton_99]

Cats have yet to win a single FK count this year yet are 7-0

The free kick stat is meaningless - more meaningless then metres gained which imo is the worst stat the media hype up. Teams have less free kicks and get absolutely murdered most weeks.

 

[CCurnow3votes]

Honestly a few like for likes.

McGovern, saad, cerra, Martin are good players, the rest are horses for courses.

Wrong - Cunningham and Fogarty are huge for our defensive forward needs - stop the ball walking out of our F50 as Geelong did tonight.

Marchbank when not injured, is our best intercepting tall back. He lets Weitering & Gov off the chain.

Fantasia is all class & will only get better.

 

[CCurnow3votes]

No worries, I'm just letting you know that Curnow out would have neutrals toasting the effects of your absentees more than all of Martin, Fogarty, Gov and Cerra. Keep your midfield stars on the field and A grade KPP's, then you will keep having strong performances.

Inefficiency is bad football. That's what separates the best from the good, so often.

Good luck for your future games.

Right you are.

All the best to you & yours

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Haven’t won the free kick count all year

Meanwhile Carlton….

Can you tell us the league wide correlation between winning the free kick count and winning the game?
Over say a 5 year period? I'd hazard a guess that it's around 50%
There can be genuine questions about specific calls or missed frees, but the actual count in any given game is virtually useless.

 

[carlton_99]

But if Lachie F-f-f-fumble-ogarty is on your list of key players missing, I can still see the wishful thinking.

Fogarty actually been great since coming into the team - been probably the best pressure forward in the comp this year. Also has very clean hands below his knees - thought he was going to be delisted until he turned it around late last year

 

[Mr Meow]

Keep telling yourself that.

Ironic, given the immense efforts by you to convince yourself today's result was a write-off.

5-2 is still a strong start. Losing two games to opposition playing away from their preferred venue is not ideal, but Carlton remain right in the top 4 race.

Collingwood next week now becomes an important game. Lose and Carlton would be in a 1-3 rut, with the only win against a Cogs/Taylor-less Giants at Telstra Dome.

 

[FootyLad0]

The free kick stat is meaningless - more meaningless then metres gained which imo is the worst stat the media hype up. Teams have less free kicks and get absolutely murdered most weeks.

Just like when you blokes mentioned inside 50 lack of HTB?
People keep cherry picking when you want to use it and not use it.

Umpiring does not determine wins and losses.
You know what does?

Bad kicking is bad footy

Carlton kicked poorly, Cats kicked brilliantly.
That’s what matters.

 

[CCurnow3votes]

Interesting and entertaining game.

My assessment of Carlton is that they are very good, but they are not hard to play against. A bit of a paradox if that makes sense.

Helps when we kick lots of points .

Our defensive pressure was terrible - missing a few who are our best at this.

 

[carlton_99]

Just like when you mentioned inside 50 lack of HTB?
You can’t cherry pick when you want to use it and not use it.

Umpiring does not determine wins and losses.
You know what does?

Bad kicking is bad footy

Carlton kicked poorly, Cats kicked brilliantly.
That’s what matters.

I never mentioned lack of HTBs in relation to that stat - I used it to indicate that our pressure was great and not the difference in the result. And regardless how is that "cherry picking when to use free kick stats" - there were a number of tackles that were clearly HTB not paid. We could have had 6 free kicks or 86 - and my opinion on that wouldn't have changed. That is why I think raw free kick numbers are meaningless when evaluating quality of umpiring

Personnel also has an impact. Our defensive line is severely undermanned at the moment - we were one of the strongest defences in 2023. And I think the pressure was massive from both sides - Carlton had 24 tackles i50 to 8. Still think ball use and execution in front of goal was where the game was won and lost.

 

[FootyLad0]

Ironic, given the immense efforts by you to convince yourself today's result was a write-off.

I’m waiting for the next excuse why Geelong shouldn’t be 7-0.

There’s been a hecktonne at this point.
I think people are starting to realise that 2023 was an aberration.

 

[Mr Meow]

I never mentioned lack of HTBs in relation to that stat - I used it to indicate that our pressure was great and not the difference in the result. And regardless how is that "cherry picking when to use free kick stats" - there were a number of tackles that were clearly HTB not paid. We could have had 6 free kicks or 86 - and my opinion on that wouldn't have changed. That is why I think raw free kick numbers are meaningless when evaluating quality of umpiring

Here is the identified excuse.

 

[carlton_99]

Here is the identified excuse.

Someone put words in my mouth again - was just clarifying that is not at all what I said. I don't use free kick numbers to evaluate quality of umpiring - I prefer to just watch the game and judge umpiring on that

 

[Mr Meow]

I’m waiting for the next excuse why Geelong shouldn’t be 7-0.

There’s been a *tonne at this point.
I think people are starting to realise that 2023 was an aberration.

Yep, disclaimers both against Geelong and for opposition - week in, week out.

Still haven't beaten a decent side unless there's a monsoon or corrupt umpires and a WWII hospital ward-esque injury list are involved.