Jimmy Two Hands
Team Captain
Well, here we are! Given this is a game between two expansion clubs without a tonne of history (noting the Jeremy Cameron hit and Alex Witherden's heat death) I was going to use this opportunity to muse on GWS's standing in the game as this new, post-expansion, self-aware ironic club. However given that this game has suddenly become the fulcrum point for the Fagan era Lions and this current premiership window, better save those musings for the off season eh?!
Lots of conjecture around GWS suspensions but this is a Lions board and a Lions preview, so I think we would all be in agreeance that our best footy beats theirs, we match up up pretty well on them which is shown by our recent H2H record and also play Manuka well. So lets focus on us.
WHERE ARE WE AT
Emotionally
I don't know about you, but I was spent after the GF. The rollercoaster of the previous years, the MCG 'hoodoo', the Demons and Tiger 'hoodoos', the finals 'hoodoos', it felt like every season we were pushing uphill against some intangible resistance and narrative. And then things opened up finally, the fixture, the opponents and then it was GF day and we were playing against an over-achieving Pies whose luck was surely going to run out and who lost a KPD early on in the piece. But the relief and the release never came. I left tighter, angrier, imbalanced - was that it? I couldn't think about it anymore. I've never seen a single minute of that game again. When the season came around I looked way beyond Round 1 - I just wanted to get straight back to finals and get revenge. And maybe so did the players? We are playing frustrated, like we are owed something, like we deserve to skip all this home and away nonsense and get back to the peak where we belong. There's no one week at a time, no learnings. Lets skip through this as quickly as we can. Alas, here come the losses, the injuries, the suspensions and sure enough, the off field controversies. We are cranky.
Status: FRUSTRATED
Gameplan
For the Fagan era, we have stuck doggedly to a relatively unpopular gameplan of tall timber, long kicking, contests and contested marking. However, when it worked, it worked well - we have generally been the no.1 or no.2 scoring side for each of the last 4-5 years, despite numerous criticisms of our forward setup and Jed Adcock's involvement. There's also been some key flaws in our game plan - our defensive run (or lackthereof) and response to turnover/counter, and lack of fluidity/reactivity when plan A of attack isnt working. We've relied on individual brilliance (Kiddy, McKenna) to break up our predictable ball movement and some defensive minded mids (Dunkley) to arrest these flaws to a point where we can overcome them, if not exactly fix them. And then of course, the big change in the off-season was more handballs, more chains of movement, more forward momentum. However, you might notice that two players I just named haven't played beyond a half so far and the handball plan is now being held up as the reason we lost last week. On a cold, night in Canberra, we just need to get back to basics - contested footy, clearance ascendency and forward half possession and pressure. Take them on line by line and believe we can beat them line by line, like we all previously agreed we can.
Status: CONFUSED
Team
Its funny how after the Demons win, the 22 seems perfect - not a single flaw or gap in the lines, talent everywhere. After a loss, its where do the solutions come from - there's no depth, we lost in the VFL, there's nobody knocking on the door, we aren't playing guys in the right spots. While we have some devastating injuries (Kiddy, Doedee, Ashcroft) and frustrating ones (McKenna, Bailey), this isn't anything new for an AFL club and a premiership side should have 25+ guys who can rotate in when needed and do a job. In reality, the make-up of our team is relatively set, changes are largely forced and there's really just some tweaking at the fringes. Fagan will back the core squad in to get the job done so lets strap in for the ride. Sorry Shadeau, sorry Bruce, sorry Logan, the window is still open and we are gonna stick with what got us there.
In: Fort, McKenna
Out: Big O, Tunstill
Sub: Lyons
Status: OK
Form
The million dollar question eh? Was the Big O concussion and rain the variable that just took us off our steady resurgence back to premiership favouritism? Or was an out of form Demons a false dawn, and last Saturday was a return to the out of sorts, slow, angry Lions of weeks 1-3. My money (and hope) is on the former and I do an exercise where I try and list who I think is playing in-form and who is out of form and look at the balance.
In Form: Harris, Froggy, Noah, Berry, Zorko, Linc, Kai
Out of Form: Eric, Charlie, Jaspa, Payne, Big O (although looked great against Cats pre-injury)
This tells me our backline is playing well together and holding up, but out forward line isn't really humming. Our midfield is good enough to provide the forwards with enough opportunities for them to turn the tide, and they are too talented not too. The Darcy third forward experiment is seemingly here to stay but he's acquitted himself well enough and should only improve as the forward 6 play together more.
STATUS: TBD
Final Prediction
Hugh to make himself the million dollar man with another vintage performance at a regional stadium during primetime. 10 coaches votes as we scrape out a tight contested win against a plucky Giants. Lions by 8.
Lots of conjecture around GWS suspensions but this is a Lions board and a Lions preview, so I think we would all be in agreeance that our best footy beats theirs, we match up up pretty well on them which is shown by our recent H2H record and also play Manuka well. So lets focus on us.
WHERE ARE WE AT
Emotionally
I don't know about you, but I was spent after the GF. The rollercoaster of the previous years, the MCG 'hoodoo', the Demons and Tiger 'hoodoos', the finals 'hoodoos', it felt like every season we were pushing uphill against some intangible resistance and narrative. And then things opened up finally, the fixture, the opponents and then it was GF day and we were playing against an over-achieving Pies whose luck was surely going to run out and who lost a KPD early on in the piece. But the relief and the release never came. I left tighter, angrier, imbalanced - was that it? I couldn't think about it anymore. I've never seen a single minute of that game again. When the season came around I looked way beyond Round 1 - I just wanted to get straight back to finals and get revenge. And maybe so did the players? We are playing frustrated, like we are owed something, like we deserve to skip all this home and away nonsense and get back to the peak where we belong. There's no one week at a time, no learnings. Lets skip through this as quickly as we can. Alas, here come the losses, the injuries, the suspensions and sure enough, the off field controversies. We are cranky.
Status: FRUSTRATED
Gameplan
For the Fagan era, we have stuck doggedly to a relatively unpopular gameplan of tall timber, long kicking, contests and contested marking. However, when it worked, it worked well - we have generally been the no.1 or no.2 scoring side for each of the last 4-5 years, despite numerous criticisms of our forward setup and Jed Adcock's involvement. There's also been some key flaws in our game plan - our defensive run (or lackthereof) and response to turnover/counter, and lack of fluidity/reactivity when plan A of attack isnt working. We've relied on individual brilliance (Kiddy, McKenna) to break up our predictable ball movement and some defensive minded mids (Dunkley) to arrest these flaws to a point where we can overcome them, if not exactly fix them. And then of course, the big change in the off-season was more handballs, more chains of movement, more forward momentum. However, you might notice that two players I just named haven't played beyond a half so far and the handball plan is now being held up as the reason we lost last week. On a cold, night in Canberra, we just need to get back to basics - contested footy, clearance ascendency and forward half possession and pressure. Take them on line by line and believe we can beat them line by line, like we all previously agreed we can.
Status: CONFUSED
Team
Its funny how after the Demons win, the 22 seems perfect - not a single flaw or gap in the lines, talent everywhere. After a loss, its where do the solutions come from - there's no depth, we lost in the VFL, there's nobody knocking on the door, we aren't playing guys in the right spots. While we have some devastating injuries (Kiddy, Doedee, Ashcroft) and frustrating ones (McKenna, Bailey), this isn't anything new for an AFL club and a premiership side should have 25+ guys who can rotate in when needed and do a job. In reality, the make-up of our team is relatively set, changes are largely forced and there's really just some tweaking at the fringes. Fagan will back the core squad in to get the job done so lets strap in for the ride. Sorry Shadeau, sorry Bruce, sorry Logan, the window is still open and we are gonna stick with what got us there.
In: Fort, McKenna
Out: Big O, Tunstill
Sub: Lyons
Status: OK
Form
The million dollar question eh? Was the Big O concussion and rain the variable that just took us off our steady resurgence back to premiership favouritism? Or was an out of form Demons a false dawn, and last Saturday was a return to the out of sorts, slow, angry Lions of weeks 1-3. My money (and hope) is on the former and I do an exercise where I try and list who I think is playing in-form and who is out of form and look at the balance.
In Form: Harris, Froggy, Noah, Berry, Zorko, Linc, Kai
Out of Form: Eric, Charlie, Jaspa, Payne, Big O (although looked great against Cats pre-injury)
This tells me our backline is playing well together and holding up, but out forward line isn't really humming. Our midfield is good enough to provide the forwards with enough opportunities for them to turn the tide, and they are too talented not too. The Darcy third forward experiment is seemingly here to stay but he's acquitted himself well enough and should only improve as the forward 6 play together more.
STATUS: TBD
Final Prediction
Hugh to make himself the million dollar man with another vintage performance at a regional stadium during primetime. 10 coaches votes as we scrape out a tight contested win against a plucky Giants. Lions by 8.
