caesar88
Moderator
- Apr 26, 2016
- 36,159
- 71,703
- AFL Club
- Sydney
- Moderator
- #101
Here's the compilation of all the first-possession numbers from the first five weeks of the season.
Team Stats:
These figures don't seem too disparate, although there are a few things that stand out. For the most part, we get less first possession than our opposition, but we are more efficient with the first possessions we get. However, this scenario seems to reverse in second halves, as we've had more first possessions in our second halves than our opposition, but the opposition have been more efficient with their first possessions. This would appear to be at odds with the general vibe that we're getting better the longer games go on, though I think that has more to do with our run and spread getting over the top of teams, more so than our contest work.
The other area that stands out to me as an outlier from the general efficiency vs inefficiency trend is our centre bounces. Not only do we win less first possessions than our opposition at centre bounces, but we also struggle to contain the opposition's efficiency with their first possessions.
Individual Stats:
For the individual data, I observed all of the same categories as for the team stats above ^, but I also wanted to try and get a clearer idea of just who was doing the most damage for us in terms of first possessions. Total first touches weren't enough, as that would obviously skew towards players who were simply in the midfield the most, while efficiency % wasn't enough, as that would obviously skew towards the guys who have only had one or two first touches that happened to be efficient. So I multiplied each players' total first touches by the efficiency of those first touches to create something of a ranking that was as fair as possible.
I know what you might be thinking - Tom McCartin?! Dane Rampe?! Nick Blakey?! Yes, they have all won first possessions at stoppages. Release them into the midfield!
As for some of the other names in that mid-table range - Campbell, Florent, Roberts, and, the one occasion they've each done so, Wicks & Mitchell - it can be tempting to think... "Could we?" But I can also say that from looking at these replays and collating these numbers, it seems to be easier for these guys to sneak up to stoppages and win a loose ball here or there, because no one's onto them. So not to say that they'd be bad if they were used as full-time mids, but I don't think their numbers here are a true reflection of how they'd go if any of them were full-time mids.
Now, onto more of the big names.
- For Heeney to have the same number of first possessions as Grundy is insane. Watching Grundy, he just gets his hands to so many balls (stay focused) and clearly being in the ruck helps with this, so for Heeney to be on par with him shows how incredible Heeney's really been. Getting hands on it is one thing, but being clean with it is another, and Heeney's 84% efficiency shows just how far ahead of all our other mids he really is.
- Warner gets the next-most first possessions out of all our midfielders (excluding Grundy, who is like a fourth mid), but Warner's inefficiency hurts him, as he had three more first touches than Gulden & Rowbottom, but less effective first touches than either of those two.
- I think there's enormous upside for Gulden. I've seen Swans fans get a bit sensitive when Gulden's size is mentioned, as I think it brings back him being snubbed by recruiters at draft time. But let's call a spade a spade, Gulden is tiny compared to some of the guys he's playing with and going up against. So for him to be producing quite positively in this area is a testament to him as a footballer.
- I also think there's huge upside for Rowbottom as well, considering he is still yet to string together two good halves of footy in a game this year. I'm not sure why - if it's fitness-related that would be particularly disappointing - but if he starts doing so, he will explode in this area, as he's hanging in there with the more attacking mids and that is with him also clearly offering the most defensively, as well.
- Interestingly, McLean had more first possessions at centre bounces than stoppages, which is pretty hard to do, considering there are more stoppage situations in games than there are centre bounces. What this says about him, I'm not really sure. It could just be a purely quirky outcome. Probably too small a sample size to know.
- Speaking of centre bounce first possessions vs stoppage first possessions, to be honest I expected Papley's to resemble McLean's. He's considered something of a centre bounce specialist, but is clearly doing most of his damage in stoppages. Although this can easily be explained by him winning first possession at forward stoppages the same way that Florent, Roberts etc. are winning first possession at defensive stoppages.
And finally, it will be interesting tracking Adams' numbers the more midfield time he gets, whilst we can also expect to see one 'L. Parker' added into the mix. That'll be fun for us mods.
Team Stats:
These figures don't seem too disparate, although there are a few things that stand out. For the most part, we get less first possession than our opposition, but we are more efficient with the first possessions we get. However, this scenario seems to reverse in second halves, as we've had more first possessions in our second halves than our opposition, but the opposition have been more efficient with their first possessions. This would appear to be at odds with the general vibe that we're getting better the longer games go on, though I think that has more to do with our run and spread getting over the top of teams, more so than our contest work.
The other area that stands out to me as an outlier from the general efficiency vs inefficiency trend is our centre bounces. Not only do we win less first possessions than our opposition at centre bounces, but we also struggle to contain the opposition's efficiency with their first possessions.
Individual Stats:
For the individual data, I observed all of the same categories as for the team stats above ^, but I also wanted to try and get a clearer idea of just who was doing the most damage for us in terms of first possessions. Total first touches weren't enough, as that would obviously skew towards players who were simply in the midfield the most, while efficiency % wasn't enough, as that would obviously skew towards the guys who have only had one or two first touches that happened to be efficient. So I multiplied each players' total first touches by the efficiency of those first touches to create something of a ranking that was as fair as possible.
I know what you might be thinking - Tom McCartin?! Dane Rampe?! Nick Blakey?! Yes, they have all won first possessions at stoppages. Release them into the midfield!
As for some of the other names in that mid-table range - Campbell, Florent, Roberts, and, the one occasion they've each done so, Wicks & Mitchell - it can be tempting to think... "Could we?" But I can also say that from looking at these replays and collating these numbers, it seems to be easier for these guys to sneak up to stoppages and win a loose ball here or there, because no one's onto them. So not to say that they'd be bad if they were used as full-time mids, but I don't think their numbers here are a true reflection of how they'd go if any of them were full-time mids.
Now, onto more of the big names.
- For Heeney to have the same number of first possessions as Grundy is insane. Watching Grundy, he just gets his hands to so many balls (stay focused) and clearly being in the ruck helps with this, so for Heeney to be on par with him shows how incredible Heeney's really been. Getting hands on it is one thing, but being clean with it is another, and Heeney's 84% efficiency shows just how far ahead of all our other mids he really is.
- Warner gets the next-most first possessions out of all our midfielders (excluding Grundy, who is like a fourth mid), but Warner's inefficiency hurts him, as he had three more first touches than Gulden & Rowbottom, but less effective first touches than either of those two.
- I think there's enormous upside for Gulden. I've seen Swans fans get a bit sensitive when Gulden's size is mentioned, as I think it brings back him being snubbed by recruiters at draft time. But let's call a spade a spade, Gulden is tiny compared to some of the guys he's playing with and going up against. So for him to be producing quite positively in this area is a testament to him as a footballer.
- I also think there's huge upside for Rowbottom as well, considering he is still yet to string together two good halves of footy in a game this year. I'm not sure why - if it's fitness-related that would be particularly disappointing - but if he starts doing so, he will explode in this area, as he's hanging in there with the more attacking mids and that is with him also clearly offering the most defensively, as well.
- Interestingly, McLean had more first possessions at centre bounces than stoppages, which is pretty hard to do, considering there are more stoppage situations in games than there are centre bounces. What this says about him, I'm not really sure. It could just be a purely quirky outcome. Probably too small a sample size to know.
- Speaking of centre bounce first possessions vs stoppage first possessions, to be honest I expected Papley's to resemble McLean's. He's considered something of a centre bounce specialist, but is clearly doing most of his damage in stoppages. Although this can easily be explained by him winning first possession at forward stoppages the same way that Florent, Roberts etc. are winning first possession at defensive stoppages.
And finally, it will be interesting tracking Adams' numbers the more midfield time he gets, whilst we can also expect to see one 'L. Parker' added into the mix. That'll be fun for us mods.
