Opinion The 'Carlton related stuff that doesn't need it's own thread' thread Part 3

[JustaBattler]

Two things can be true at the same time though JaB.

Not if one is arguing causality by way of correlation - which is a rookie 101 error in statistical analysis.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

And yet when they both played together late last year we beat Collingwood, Melbourne, St kilda and Gold Coast. And then went on to beat the Swans and Melbourne in actual finals.

It's a bit strange to use the analogy to say that it won't take you to finals let alone further than that when it did and it did.

Not arguing the semantics and understand that we need to determine whether we prioritise turnovers or clearance dominance.

Yeah, we were scoring big on clearances last year and a lot of people were worried that it wasn't a sustainable way to win games. Yet, we kept winning (apart from a dead rubber against the Giants) and it took in an form Brisbane at the Gabba to stop us.

My take has always been, as long as we've got a method for scoring that is consistent, it shouldn't be dismissed as unsustainable regardless of what past history implies. Especially for our playing group, I reckon scoring from clearances plays more into our strengths.

It's clear that we've made scoring from turnover a bigger focus going into this year, which I think is admirable as it adds another layer to our game. But we won't be dropping Pitto based on those stats.

 

[blues4flag]

and if the team kicked straight - the analysis would exist...

I have zero respect for after-the-result anal ists who change their tune week to week according to the "vibe".

Agree in general but unfair criticism of Hoyne. He's very consistent with his opinions and has always been vocal about the importance of the turnover game.

 

[Arr0w]

Agree in general but unfair criticism of Hoyne. He's very consistent with his opinions and has always been vocal about the importance of the turnover game.

I agree that the turnover game is the best scoring source, using stats based on which players are in the side over 24 months is flawed

On Pitto and TDK

Yes, certain types aid, while others diminish beneficial numbers, but unless you also run the data of another best 20 players being available, it won't give a true outcome

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Not if one is arguing causality by way of correlation - which is a rookie 101 error in statistical analysis.

There's no such thing as an absolute when it comes to football analysis. Pointing out that our turnover game has statistically been better when Pittonet doesn't play, is simply that. It's up to the reader to draw their own conclusions.

Feel free to add your own rationale and back it up with whatever you like. That's what discussion is.

The idea that something may be the cause, but may not be so shouldn't be considered, is kind of the death knell for discussion.

I've argued for and against every player on our list at times. I think I've been proved right, proved wrong, right at the time I argued, but wrong long term and vice versa.

We ride the bumps and pay our money as members. Part of the experience is to want to see changes to match what each one of us think our problem is.

I think Pitto is more suited to our clearance game than our turnover game too. He does not apply pressure when is in the defensive half of the game. He was probably more suited to the Freo game where everything is tight. He isn't going to be suited to the free running style of GWS ... in my opinion.

 

[JustaBattler]

There's no such thing as an absolute when it comes to football analysis. Pointing out that our turnover game has statistically been better when Pittonet doesn't play, is simply that. It's up to the reader to draw their own conclusions.

Feel free to add your own rationale and back it up with whatever you like. That's what discussion is.

The idea that something may be the cause, but may not be so shouldn't be considered, is kind of the death knell for discussion.

I've argued for and against every player on our list at times. I think I've been proved right, proved wrong, right at the time I argued, but wrong long term and vice versa.

We ride the bumps and pay our money as members. Part of the experience is to want to see changes to match what each one of us think our problem is.

I think Pitto is more suited to our clearance game than our turnover game too. He does not apply pressure when is in the defensive half of the game. He was probably more suited to the Freo game where everything is tight. He isn't going to be suited to the free running style of GWS ... in my opinion.

It is an interesting discussion and I agree that teams should be selected according to opposition and other team selection circumstances.

Personally, I find some specific statistics interesting on their own - for example I think the one percenters table you posted was a good indicator of relative effort expended by Carlton players in the Aedlaide game and pretty much lined up with Voss's post match statements about poor defensive pressure.

I don't think Pittonet was ever expected to complete a full game ( I did comment that perhaps Voss wanted to get some game time into him at the time) - however unfortunately Saad came off half way through teh second quarter and there goes that plan out the door...

As for general statistical commentary - I think it is a lagging indicator (at best) of what teams are doing to win or lose a game.

The main reason we lost the Aelaide game (for example) was poor kicking - no better exemplified by Owies - again.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

It is an interesting discussion and I agree that teams should be selected according to opposition and other team selection circumstances.

Personally, I find some specific statistics interesting on their own - for example I think the one percenters table you posted was a good indicator of relative effort expended by Carlton players in the Aedlaide game and pretty much lined up with Voss's post match statements about poor defensive pressure.

I don't think Pittonet was ever expected to complete a full game ( I did comment that perhaps Voss wanted to get some game time into him at the time) - however unfortunately Saad came off half way through teh second quarter and there goes that plan out the door...

As for general statistical commentary - I think it is a lagging indicator (at best) of what teams are doing to win or lose a game.

The main reason we lost the Aelaide game (for example) was poor kicking - no better exemplified by Owies - again.

Owies is an accurate set shot and was also robbed a goal too...

Getting tired of continuously bringing up how he did an undisciplined thing. He wasn't alone.

The main reason we lost is because we fell apart defensively... bad kicking was also a big factor, but not the biggest. You can't allow the opposition forwards all that space... Tex was roaming on his own all game, Rankine was allowed to run riot and even Keays, a known thorn in our side was paid no respect. Had we defended better, they wouldn't have had a sniff.

 

[RedFury]

Owies is an accurate set shot and was also robbed a goal too...

Getting tired of continuously bringing up how he did an undisciplined thing. He wasn't alone.

The main reason we lost is because we fell apart defensively... bad kicking was also a big factor, but not the biggest. You can't allow the opposition forwards all that space... Tex was roaming on his own all game, Rankine was allowed to run riot and even Keays, a known thorn in our side was paid no respect. Had we defended better, they wouldn't have had a sniff.

Bingo. We were off defensively all night and that's the reason we were beaten. Honestly Adelaide looked dangerous every time they got the ball forward of centre and scored the majority of their goals far too easily compared to how hard we worked for ours.

There seems to be something about the Crows where we just don't match up well on their forwards, they seem to cut through us like a hot knife through butter. We have looked far more defensively assured against other sides, not sure what's going on there.

No Pittonet against GWS please.

 

[JustaBattler]

Owies is an accurate set shot and was also robbed a goal too...

Getting tired of continuously bringing up how he did an undisciplined thing. He wasn't alone.

The main reason we lost is because we fell apart defensively... bad kicking was also a big factor, but not the biggest. You can't allow the opposition forwards all that space... Tex was roaming on his own all game, Rankine was allowed to run riot and even Keays, a known thorn in our side was paid no respect. Had we defended better, they wouldn't have had a sniff.

As the coach stated (and I repeated) the defensive effort was below par allowing so many goals...

Since you bring up your fatigue and invite further response, I think I have mentioned Owies twice in indifferent threads - this time as an example of poor conversion effort. There was a reason he was dropped for the prelim and will be the first dropped when some others come back from injury.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Can't wait to see where man baby Max Laughton has us in the weekly Fox Footy Power rankings. Dropped us 5 spots last week for our loss to Adelaide yet somehow put Freo above us for losing to Port Adelaide... Up there with Jon Ralph as the biggest Carlton hater in the media.

 

[Thrawn]

Can't wait to see where man baby Max Laughton has us in the weekly Fox Footy Power rankings. Dropped us 5 spots last week for our loss to Adelaide yet somehow put Freo above us for losing to Port Adelaide... Up there with Jon Ralph as the biggest Carlton hater in the media.

Can't spell Laughton without a laugh.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Can't spell Laughton without a laugh.

He's an absolute flog. Openly admits to hating us on his podcast yet pretends to be unbiased in his work at Fox, despite nearly always being entirely negative towards us in any of his writing.

 

[BigFrizz36]

David King very bullish on First Crack. Opened with "Carlton United is brewing". Said that you often see clubs who hope that they have what it takes at the pointy end but firmly believes that we know that we have what it takes. A club in unity. "They have more quality players on the sideline than most but it didn't matter that they weren't there because the system stacks up. They haven't finished top 4 for 24 years but I just feel that this year it will be M.C.G. , M.C.G and who knows"

The cynic in me would note that we went back to an extent to our bash them at clearances game which his mates at Champion data keep telling us is not sustainable but hey who I am to rain on Kingy's parade.

 

[katmanblue]

David King very bullish on First Crack. Opened with "Carlton United is brewing". Said that you often see clubs who hope that they have what it takes at the pointy end but firmly believes that we know that we have what it takes. A club in unity. "They have more quality players on the sideline than most but it didn't matter that they weren't there because the system stacks up. They haven't finished top 4 for 24 years but I just feel that this year it will be M.C.G. , M.C.G and who knows"

The cynic in me would note that we went back to an extent to our bash them at clearances game which his mates at Champion data keep telling us is not sustainable but hey who I am to rain on Kingy's parade.

We did but you've got to look at personnel. Zilliams out at half time. Last week McGovern and Saad out early on. That's your rebounding right there. Unavailable.

On SM-F926B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

David King very bullish on First Crack. Opened with "Carlton United is brewing". Said that you often see clubs who hope that they have what it takes at the pointy end but firmly believes that we know that we have what it takes. A club in unity. "They have more quality players on the sideline than most but it didn't matter that they weren't there because the system stacks up. They haven't finished top 4 for 24 years but I just feel that this year it will be M.C.G. , M.C.G and who knows"

The cynic in me would note that we went back to an extent to our bash them at clearances game which his mates at Champion data keep telling us is not sustainable but hey who I am to rain on Kingy's parade.

I’ve seen it said a few places that we reverted to the contested style from last year. No doubt we did in sense if clearances but our ball movement in that third quarter was so much cleaner than anything we produced last year. I saw it more as us merging last year and earlier this year.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Realistically it was fairly obvious we were going to try and win using the crash and bash clearance model from 2023 because we were missing arguably our 3 best users in Cerra Saad and Mcgovern.

I'm wrapped with how we went about it yesterday, there was absolutely no way we win vs the Giants playing the turnover game over a full match with the names we were missing. Going back to what we know can work with the names we still had was a masterful choice.

 

[BigFrizz36]

David King - "Matty Cottrell is the games most influential role player right now. When he gets the ball he has a happy knack of creating scores. He's had the same amount of score involvements as Isaac Rankine and Cameron Rayner

16

Cameron Rayner

Age

24

Ht

186cm

Wt

93kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.4

3star

K

6.2

2star

HB

5.2

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.4

4star

CL

1.3

3star

D

11.3

3star

K

5.8

2star

HB

5.5

3star

M

3.1

3star

T

3.0

4star

CL

1.8

4star

D

10.8

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

4.4

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

2.2

4star

CL

0.4

3star

. Work that our from where they are on the pay grade. This guy understands the game. He knows what is required,".

 

[Thrawn]

I get worried when David King talks us up because whenever he does, we seem to falter.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

David King very bullish on First Crack. Opened with "Carlton United is brewing". Said that you often see clubs who hope that they have what it takes at the pointy end but firmly believes that we know that we have what it takes. A club in unity. "They have more quality players on the sideline than most but it didn't matter that they weren't there because the system stacks up. They haven't finished top 4 for 24 years but I just feel that this year it will be M.C.G. , M.C.G and who knows"

The cynic in me would note that we went back to an extent to our bash them at clearances game which his mates at Champion data keep telling us is not sustainable but hey who I am to rain on Kingy's parade.

We won the turnover game yesterday and obliterated them on the inside

Should have been 6+ goal win


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[lily of laguna]

I get worried when David King talks us up because whenever he does, we seem to falter.

I think he now feels his reputation of being a terrific analyst is on the line and will continue to pump us up, starting with the preseason attendance to our training.

He was the same last year after nominating Naicos for the Brownlow after 2 rounds. Pumped him up to excess.





On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[BigFrizz36]

I get worried when David King talks us up because whenever he does, we seem to falter.

Kingy, Joey and Huddo all had us at #1 on their current rankings on First Crack.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

I think he now feels his reputation of being a terrific analyst is on the line and will continue to pump us up, starting with the preseason attendance to our training.

His reputation of being a what analyst????? . He spouts opinions loosely tied to the stat of the week without any analysis. What he does produce is fed to him by the clown David Hoyne. He's in the business of opinions and clicks, not analytics.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Kingy, Joey and Huddo all had us at #1 on their current rankings on First Crack.

We're doomed.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

His reputation of being a what analyst????? . He spouts opinions loosely tied to the stat of the week without any analysis. What he does produce is fed to him by the clown David Hoyne. He's in the business of opinions and clicks, not analytics.

Hoyne the same genius who had Harry Mckay rated worst on ground the day he kicked 7.5 vs Freo.

ANALYTICS!!!

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Hoyne the same genius who had Harry Mckay rated worst on ground the day he kicked 7.5 vs Freo.

ANALYTICS!!!

Champion data's usefulness is and will remain data collection. NOT ANALYTICS. They have nfi