Preview Changes/Preview – Round 8 vs. Geelong

[schmuttt]

Good to know geelong Have Peaked early and timed there run too early.
As the saying goes "its a marathon, not a sprint".

Mid year theyll fall away.

Did we peak too early in 2021?

 

[mrmonkey]

Yeah that's a weird saying sometimes good teams are winning because they are good, not because they are 'peaking' Geelong. Carlton and gws all look like good teams. Carlton no doubt got a lot out of that game and will be better in the long run.

 

[Topkent]

Good to know geelong Have Peaked early and timed there run too early.
As the saying goes "its a marathon, not a sprint".

Mid year theyll fall away.

That's an insane thing to say. Peaking too early is such a myth, sure you wanna peak in September but doesn't mean you have to be s**t to the start the year you have your lull in rounds 10-18 sorta thing go hard again to end

 

[The Dr]

The two players that worry me most at Cameron and Miers.

T Mac has the endurance to go with Cameron up the ground, and strength 1-1, but will be exposed with Cameron's agility and smarts. But I think he's the best matchup.

With Miers, I wouldn't be against an old-school tag. No handing over and hoping the defensive zone will do the job. No idea who'd be good for that job tho.

Overall, absolutely zero confidence we can win this. Cats should beat us by 5+ goals if they play like they have been.


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[Guy Threepwood]

Did we peak too early in 2021?

I believe he's making reference to a lot of opposition supporters saying we had peaked early in 2021 when we started the season off on a streak.

 

[Lord Nev]

The two players that worry me most at Cameron and Miers.

T Mac has the endurance to go with Cameron up the ground, and strength 1-1, but will be exposed with Cameron's agility and smarts. But I think he's the best matchup.

With Miers, I wouldn't be against an old-school tag. No handing over and hoping the defensive zone will do the job. No idea who'd be good for that job tho.

Overall, absolutely zero confidence we can win this. Cats should beat us by 5+ goals if they play like they have been.


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It's all about the middle this week IMO.

Cats are vulnerable IF (and it's a big if) we can get our clearance game up and firing. We're the best team in the comp for stoppage scoring differential, Geelong are 12th. Clearly Geelong's game plan is turnover/rebound football, they're ranked 17th for clearance differential, so our best shot is to maximise that part of our game. We simply need to be winning the ball in the middle and getting it forward. Sounds like classic Melbourne, but we're 11th for clearance differential this year.

However, Geelong are number 1 for scores from turnover differential, and that's our big weakness against them. Best way to take that away is to limit them getting out front of stoppage and getting high inside 50s. Geelong average 24 more points than their opposition on scoring from turnovers, we average 2.7.

In short - Win clearances and don't turn it over much. That's our best shot IMO.

 

[melbun]

We have a couple of extra days to rest up, sitting around drinking beer and eating chips.
I'm thinking the extra day(s) between games is a big deal in the modern game.
This game will be closer than most expect.

 

[schmuttt]

It's all about the middle this week IMO.

Cats are vulnerable IF (and it's a big if) we can get our clearance game up and firing. We're the best team in the comp for stoppage scoring differential, Geelong are 12th. Clearly Geelong's game plan is turnover/rebound football, they're ranked 17th for clearance differential, so our best shot is to maximise that part of our game. We simply need to be winning the ball in the middle and getting it forward. Sounds like classic Melbourne, but we're 11th for clearance differential this year.

However, Geelong are number 1 for scores from turnover differential, and that's our big weakness against them. Best way to take that away is to limit them getting out front of stoppage and getting high inside 50s. Geelong average 24 more points than their opposition on scoring from turnovers, we average 2.7.

In short - Win clearances and don't turn it over much. That's our best shot IMO.

Last time we played them we were +12 in clearances and had a bad loss. I agree it is Geelongs weakness but Geelong got belted at clearance last night and still won the game. We simply must be close to their efficiency up forward or we will get flogged.

 

[Lord Nev]

Last time we played them we were +12 in clearances and had a bad loss. I agree it is Geelongs weakness but Geelong got belted at clearance last night and still won the game. We simply must be close to their efficiency up forward or we will get flogged.

We likely won't be close to their efficiency. They're 2nd for goals per inside 50, we're 8th. That's why I believe we need to generate more opportunities to go with them while (hopefully) at least maintaining our usual efficiency.

Our defence is far better than Carlton's IMO. For reference to that, Carlton are the number 1 team for scores from stoppages (a massive 42.1 ppg) but they're 8th for score from stoppage differential (+1.0 ppg). We're number 1 for score from stoppage differential. That's why I believe our best chance to beat them is to maximise that part of our game. They're absolutely deadly on the turnover and rebound and we'll get murdered if we use the ball like last week.

Our forward efficiency is middle of the road and I don't see it getting a million times better in one week. Keep that level but maximise the opportunities and we give ourselves our best shot I reckon.

 

[Proper Gander]

Four points is better than none.

Great mathematical ability, but I don’t think you understood what Topkent was getting at.

I agree with you - would love the four points. I also agree with Kent, if I’m going to watch us (and I am) it would be nice if we could entertain.

You never know. We might all end up happy with a win and a thrillingly attacking game. Then we can all hug. I would enjoy that and I just know you would be keen.

 

[Lord Nev]

Great mathematical ability, but I don’t think you understood what Topkent was getting at.

I agree with you - would love the four points. I also agree with Kent, if I’m going to watch us (and I am) it would be nice if we could entertain.

You never know. We might all end up happy with a win and a thrillingly attacking game. Then we can all hug. I would enjoy that and I just know you would be keen.

We're 0.3 goals per game behind the Magpies. This 'entertainment' commentary is rubbish. It's just a tired excuse to whinge about the Dees again. I get it if people are confusing large, loud crowds for 'entertaining football', but it's not the scoring. Posters going on about entertainment rather than winning but then complaining either way are so boring and probably don't realize how much they're in the same lane as Roffey.

 

[Proper Gander]

We're 0.3 goals per game behind the Magpies. This 'entertainment' commentary is rubbish. It's just a tired excuse to whinge about the Dees again. I get it if people are confusing large, loud crowds for 'entertaining football', but it's not the scoring. Posters going on about entertainment rather than winning but then complaining either way are so boring and probably don't realize how much they're in the same lane as Roffey.

I truly don’t understand this at all. And the pies aren’t the measure of entertainment in 2024. It’s got Jack to do with crowd size - we top GWS on that every time.

 

[demondavey]

Can’t believe we are 4th.

Changes won’t matter. Papering over cracks with changes. Geelong will win by 50+. Stewart will have the easiest game of his career.

 

[Proper Gander]

Can’t believe we are 4th.

Changes won’t matter. Papering over cracks with changes. Geelong will win by 50+. Stewart will have the easiest game of his career.

Sadly, I rather expect this

 

[stEdy]

Really need Fritsch and Kozz up and about as our most dangerous forwards.

I think Cats are great value at $1.85. They're away from home but this 2024 Cats team is built to play on the wide expanses of the G with their rebound and ball movement.

Not sure we have a match-up for Jezza either. Could see him kicking a bag.

 

[schmuttt]

We're 0.3 goals per game behind the Magpies. This 'entertainment' commentary is rubbish. It's just a tired excuse to whinge about the Dees again. I get it if people are confusing large, loud crowds for 'entertaining football', but it's not the scoring. Posters going on about entertainment rather than winning but then complaining either way are so boring and probably don't realize how much they're in the same lane as Roffey.

Strawman so good I could confuse you for Topkent

 

[Proper Gander]

Strawman so good I could confuse you for Topkent

Was elite

 

[Daemon]

We're 0.3 goals per game behind the Magpies. This 'entertainment' commentary is rubbish. It's just a tired excuse to whinge about the Dees again. I get it if people are confusing large, loud crowds for 'entertaining football', but it's not the scoring. Posters going on about entertainment rather than winning but then complaining either way are so boring and probably don't realize how much they're in the same lane as Roffey.

Your certainly entitled to your opinion.

Me, I like watching entertaining, high skills, attacking footy. In my humble opinion the Dees play the opposite of this style and it's bloody boring and at many times, infuriating.

 

[AFLinsight2023]

Hi all, I'm a bit of a stat head and just thought I'd share these early season observations about your defensive profile with you all;

Over the last Ten Seasons of Data the lowest % of Defensive Inside 50's that lead to an Opposition Goal was 18.07%, which was recorded in 2020. This season the Dees currently sit at 16.49%! (Geelong sit 2nd on 18.91%).

Melbourne is also ranked #1 for Defensive Inside 50's that lead to Opposition Shots at Goal with just 41.24% (Next best is Gold Coast @42.58%).

The Dees are the only team who are conceding less than 70 points per game (66.29).

Ranked #1 for Intercept Mark Differential with +4.29 per game (Dogs are 2nd with +3.14)

When Melbourne won the Flag in 2021 the difference between their conversion of Inside 50's into Goals (22.99%) and Defensive Inside 50's into Opposition Goals (19.12%) was +3.86. This season their differential sits at a whopping +7.65 (Fwd Eff - 24.15%, Def Eff - 16.49%)

Good luck for the rest of the season...cheers

 

[Lord Nev]

Your certainly entitled to your opinion.

Me, I like watching entertaining, high skills, attacking footy. In my humble opinion the Dees play the opposite of this style and it's bloody boring and at many times, infuriating.

Missing the point. I'm not saying attacking footy isn't entertaining, I'm saying people are using 'exciting footy' just as a cover all topic to whinge about their football team. It's the same points on BigFooty by the same handful of posters over and over and over, which is ironic when talking entertainment.

This year we're 13th for inside 50s - "The Dees aren't attacking enough, it's not entertaining"
Last year we're number 1 for inside 50s - "The Dees aren't attacking enough, it's not entertaining"

This year we're 10th for goals per game - "The Dees aren't attacking enough, it's not entertaining"
Last year we're 6th for goals per game - "The Dees aren't attacking enough, it's not entertaining"

It makes no sense to be making the same comments given those differences. It's a lazy excuse to hide behind super basic negative commentary. It's just so much safer to make negative comments and then go 'oh gee so happy I was wrong!' than to make any kind of genuine comments (even if they're positive) because we all now how hard everyone will go at you for daring to not make the same old tired negative safe commentary.

We're 2 goals per game behind the Cats and Blues.

 

[Vdubs]

I would rather us lose this game 110-102 than win the game 75-65.
Show me we can match it with the best not drag the best down to our s**t for a week

Please let it happen.
I rate Demons highly, and reading posts here, sounds like the team is not firing, but top 4 with some impressive wins...
We are being told we haven't played a decent team yet (Lions and Blues are pretty decent in my book), but this week, a well rested Demons team with Gawn, a great MF, and brilliant KB's, will certainly test us.

 

[Capt_Concussion]

Missing the point. I'm not saying attacking footy isn't entertaining, I'm saying people are using 'exciting footy' just as a cover all topic to whinge about their football team. It's the same points on BigFooty by the same handful of posters over and over and over, which is ironic when talking entertainment.

This year we're 13th for inside 50s - "The Dees aren't attacking enough, it's not entertaining"
Last year we're number 1 for inside 50s - "The Dees aren't attacking enough, it's not entertaining"

This year we're 10th for goals per game - "The Dees aren't attacking enough, it's not entertaining"
Last year we're 6th for goals per game - "The Dees aren't attacking enough, it's not entertaining"

It makes no sense to be making the same comments given those differences. It's a lazy excuse to hide behind super basic negative commentary. It's just so much safer to make negative comments and then go 'oh gee so happy I was wrong!' than to make any kind of genuine comments (even if they're positive) because we all now how hard everyone will go at you for daring to not make the same old tired negative safe commentary.

We're 2 goals per game behind the Cats and Blues.

Mindless repetitive long bombs to the pocket might boost inside 50 tallies but it's a boring and defensive way of attacking.

On Pixel 7a using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Lord Nev]

Mindless repetitive long bombs to the pocket might boost inside 50 tallies but it's a boring and defensive way of attacking.

On Pixel 7a using BigFooty.com mobile app

This year - 2 goals per game behind Cats and Blues.
2023 - 6th for goals per game.

This year we're 8th for goals per inside 50.

People are going overboard with the commentary. The facts don't back it up.

 

[Proper Gander]

Missing the point. I'm not saying attacking footy isn't entertaining, I'm saying people are using 'exciting footy' just as a cover all topic to whinge about their football team. It's the same points on BigFooty by the same handful of posters over and over and over, which is ironic when talking entertainment.

This year we're 13th for inside 50s - "The Dees aren't attacking enough, it's not entertaining"
Last year we're number 1 for inside 50s - "The Dees aren't attacking enough, it's not entertaining"

This year we're 10th for goals per game - "The Dees aren't attacking enough, it's not entertaining"
Last year we're 6th for goals per game - "The Dees aren't attacking enough, it's not entertaining"

It makes no sense to be making the same comments given those differences. It's a lazy excuse to hide behind super basic negative commentary. It's just so much safer to make negative comments and then go 'oh gee so happy I was wrong!' than to make any kind of genuine comments (even if they're positive) because we all now how hard everyone will go at you for daring to not make the same old tired negative safe commentary.

We're 2 goals per game behind the Cats and Blues.

You’ve missed the point.

I don’t plan to bother with this so I’ll hairpin elsewhere.

I will be super positive on this board forever if you promise to stop spamming irrelevant, tedious content that I can get from my Twitter account if I cared to do so.

Agree? Tops. Knew I could rely on you mate

 

[Proper Gander]

This year - 2 goals per game behind Cats and Blues.
2023 - 6th for goals per game.

This year we're 8th for goals per inside 50.

People are going overboard with the commentary. The facts don't back it up.

So seven teams more dynamic in this regard? Sounds about what I would have imagined even before cherry-picking stats