Prediction How will the Geelong Cats fare in season 2024?

[canny30]

G'day Cats fans, I'm a bit of a stat head and thought I'd share the following with you;

In season '24, the Cats have the highest differential for intercept possessions per game ever recorded with +9.8.

When Geelong won the flag in 2022 they had a differential of +6.9 per game.

Best of luck for the rest of the season...cheers.

That's an interesting stat, but we haven't really played any standout teams, so stats can be inflated. Especially with Tom Stewart, he just eats lower ranked teams alive.....they can't handle him at all.

If we roll Brisbane I might become more interested in this season in terms of being around at the pointy end.

At the moment I'm just concentrating on the great work and improvement of our younger players.

 

[fpm84]

Great stuff by Rohan Connolly:

Patience and consistency: there's real 2022 vibes about Geelong this year​

Even when the Cats finished 12th last season with only 10-and-a-half wins, they weren't too far off the pace. None of their 12 defeats were by any more than 38 points, and only two were by more than 29 points. Yet, like a lot of my peers, I couldn't find a spot for them in my predicted top eight, settling on ninth. That already looks like a significant underestimation.

There are so many impressive aspects to the operation that is the Geelong Football Club, but is there any more outstanding than its junior development? It's been the key to keeping the Cats both consistently competitive yet capable simultaneously of regeneration.

And we won't see many better examples of it at work than in Saturday night's win over Brisbane in the wet.

The keys to this Geelong performance were the likes of Max Holmes, Zach Guthrie

39

Zach Guthrie

Age

25

Ht

188cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.0

3star

K

5.8

2star

HB

5.2

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

1.8

4star

MG

90.0

1star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

1.0

1star

T

1.0

2star

MG

90.0

2star

D

10.4

3star

K

3.8

2star

HB

6.6

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.6

4star

, Tanner Bruhn, Tyson Stengle

18

Tyson Stengle

Age

25

Ht

175cm

Wt

71kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.3

2star

K

5.8

2star

HB

3.5

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.1

4star

D

10.3

3star

K

5.3

2star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.3

1star

T

2.0

3star

G

0.5

4star

D

8.8

3star

K

5.6

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.6

4star

G

1.6

5star

, Jack Bowes

12

Jack Bowes

Age

26

Ht

189cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.3

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

6.6

4star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.5

4star

MG

318.1

4star

D

18.0

4star

K

11.8

5star

HB

6.3

4star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.1

2star

MG

318.1

4star

D

11.6

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

5.2

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.4

4star

, Gryan Miers

32

Gryan Miers

Age

25

Ht

179cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.4

4star

K

9.1

4star

HB

6.3

4star

M

4.1

4star

T

1.8

4star

G

1.1

4star

D

15.3

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

6.3

4star

M

4.6

4star

T

1.6

3star

G

0.9

4star

D

14.4

4star

K

8.4

4star

HB

6.0

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.2

4star

and Brandan Parfitt

3

Brandan Parfitt

Age

26

Ht

180cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.6

4star

K

8.4

3star

HB

8.2

5star

M

2.1

2star

T

4.8

5star

CL

1.9

4star

D

15.3

4star

K

8.5

3star

HB

6.8

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

7.8

5star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

6.4

3star

HB

8.4

5star

M

2.8

3star

T

4.0

5star

CL

0.6

3star

. That collection of names have arrived at Kardinia Park via a variety of sources, some trade-ins, some early draft picks, some not so.

But the common denominator is all are now significantly better and more consistent players than when they arrived at the club.

Who realistically would have believed Stengle could ever deliver consistently the form of which he was capable after his experiences at Richmond and Adelaide, let alone earn All-Australian selection and be such an important part of a premiership?

How many clubs might have run out of patience with Cam Guthrie's less-heralded younger brother, now also a premiership player and a fourth-place getter in a best and fairest? Or Parfitt, who like Guthrie, is now in his eighth season of senior football?

Geelong shows more faith in its list than most, and why not? The consistency with which the Cats get it right not just picking the right talent, but getting it to eventually deliver the best it possibly can, means their system will prevail far more often than not.

And the added strength of that system is that those players can continue to make meaningful contributions even as they are getting to that stage, so well-defined and clearly understood are the roles within that structure coach Chris Scott

Chris Scott

Age

48

Ht

182cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.6

4star

K

11.2

4star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.4

3star

No current season stats available

D

13.2

4star

K

10.2

4star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

expects them to play.

We haven't seen a dependability like Geelong's as a club and football team since Hawthorn dominated football in the 1980s. And even the Hawks of that era (many of whom are still involved with the game professionally) would admit that sustained excellence and premierships are harder to achieve and to win now than then.

Are the Cats on their way to another flag? It's still early days, obviously, and there's a big few weeks ahead with games against Carlton, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Gold Coast and GWS in succession.

But there are definite 2022 vibes about this version. And put it this way; is there any team currently you'd rather have playing for your life than the Cats? I don't think so.

Patience and consistency: there's real 2022 vibes about Geelong this year

Few could find a spot for the Cats in their pre-season top eight, but once again this club is proving why it might be the most impressive organisation in the sport, writes Rohan Connolly.

www.espn.com.au

 

[Mad_Hatter]

I fully expect, injuries and cliff falls aside, to finish well inside the top 4 and possibly, even probably, contend for the Flag.

Second post of the thread.
This guy is very astute

 

[catempire]

We're a midfield away from the premiership. Our forward and back lines are top tier.

If the MC can manufacture a competitive midfield everything else should be pushing us towards top 4.

Remains to be seen how.

Good take

 

[catempire]

It would have to be something unexpected but by age Parfit and Mannagh are in the right spot to fill up the gap.

Also a good take

 

[Mr Meow]

Assuming we win this weekend, we will be 5-0 and about to start a tough run:

-Brisbane (Gabba)
-Carlton (MCG)
-Melbourne (MCG)
-Port (GMHBA)
-Gold Coast (Darwin)
-GWS (GMHBA)

Consensus seems to be that 3-0 or even 2-4 would be a good result. I think 4-2 is a realistic aim.

If we can take one of the MCG games, one of the road trips north and both games at home then we will be 9-2.

That would mean a 7-5 run home would see us secure top 4. 5 of those games are at home. Essendon at the G and NM in Tasmania are 2 others.

One road trip victory up north has been ticked off.

I'd be disappointed if we don't win two of the next three. The two games at the MCG against good sides will tell us a bit. There's a decent enough chance we could meet one or both of them in September.

If we win both games at the G, sadly we'll be veering into "lid off" territory.

 

[patience]

One road trip victory up north has been ticked off.

I'd be disappointed if we don't win two of the next three. The two games at the MCG against good sides will tell us a bit. There's a decent enough chance we could meet one or both of them in September.

If we win both games at the G, joyfully we'll be veering into "lid off" territory.

Fixed it.
I like this quote from Titus O'Reily - The Cats may be the only consistent thing in the world right now.

 

[Mr Meow]

So put a line through St Kilda. Dogs still in the race for 8th. Fremantle are in that zone too.

GWS
Sydney
Melbourne
Geelong
Carlton
Port
Brisbane


My "maybe" contenders list (not necessarily in order) for 2024. Suns will be added with notable away wins.

I did think Collingwood would win on the weekend, so it was probably an oversight to leave them off the contender list. Swapping them for Brisbane makes sense (but only if they beat Essendon), who will be 2-5 if they lose to GWS next.

Port will make finals again but it's difficult to shake off that pretender tag.

Sydney
Geelong
Carlton
GWS

Are the sides I'm most confident will be in the mix. Melbourne, Collingwood and Port as maybes.

 

[No Quarter]

Lid is on.

But I think comment above is right, if we got through the next 5 games winning the majority, it would be hard to contain expectation and excitement

 

[CatToTheFuture]

One road trip victory up north has been ticked off.

I'd be disappointed if we don't win two of the next three. The two games at the MCG against good sides will tell us a bit. There's a decent enough chance we could meet one or both of them in September.

If we win both games at the G, sadly we'll be veering into "lid off" territory.

Veering?

 

[Mr Meow]

Veering?

I think a fair bit depends on how the other contenders look too. Something people forget to factor in.

The dream situation is to finish top 2 and somehow host an interstate team at the G. Finishing 3rd or 4th and playing Carlton, Melbourne, Collingwood, Brisbane or Port? Less easy.

I know we love beating Collingwood in finals but it's usually a close run thing and imagine their momentum as the defending champs if they continue their resurgence. Carlton will have the Richmond 2017-2020 type hype and are a big threat if they're top 4.

Brisbane's collapse suits us. It's also better if Port aren't top 2, even though they have their finals scars. Pretenders sneaking into top 4? I'd take that.

My dream (somewhat possible) ladder configuration would be something like this:

Sydney
Geelong
Port
GWS
Carlton
Melbourne
Fremantle
Bulldogs

Any team winning this year's flag probably has to go through the Sydney sides, so it's best to at least get them at the MCG. Kenny's Port might do us a favour if it's not at AO.

This is a pointless post this far out, but basically I'd be cheering on sides that make this kind of order a possibility. And obviously if we did happen to win the next 3 games, top 2 has to be the aim. I doubt we are that blessed though.

 

[Ratcat]

Right now it's looking amazing, what with the younger ones and new players all stepping up to the plate. Some that didn't play could come in as well.

 

[year of the cat]

We are in with as good a chance as anyone. Add a fit C.Guthrie and even our midfield looks good enough.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

I think a fair bit depends on how the other contenders look too. Something people forget to factor in.

The dream situation is to finish top 2 and somehow host an interstate team at the G. Finishing 3rd or 4th and playing Carlton, Melbourne, Collingwood, Brisbane or Port? Less easy.

I know we love beating Collingwood in finals but it's usually a close run thing and imagine their momentum as the defending champs if they continue their resurgence. Carlton will have the Richmond 2017-2020 type hype and are a big threat if they're top 4.

Brisbane's collapse suits us. It's also better if Port aren't top 2, even though they have their finals scars. Pretenders sneaking into top 4? I'd take that.

My dream (somewhat possible) ladder configuration would be something like this:

Sydney
Geelong
Port
GWS
Carlton
Melbourne
Fremantle
Bulldogs

Any team winning this year's flag probably has to go through the Sydney sides, so it's best to at least get them at the MCG. Kenny's Port might do us a favour if it's not at AO.

This is a pointless post this far out, but basically I'd be cheering on sides that make this kind of order a possibility. And obviously if we did happen to win the next 3 games, top 2 has to be the aim. I doubt we are that blessed though.

I'm generally very much a one week at a time operator, especially in finals.

With that being said, if we finished top 2 and got Port or Brisbane at the MCG in a QF.....I'd be booking the prelim tickets in advance

 

[CatRiot]

Our defence and forward line is elite in the competition. It's just a matter of whether the midfield can keep going.

 

[catempire]

Update: we like the power rankings

 

[CHAWKTS]

The Revengers: Unconventional Cats Getting The Job Done

Geelong's fantastic four have played a significant role in our unbeaten start

www.geelongcats.com.au

Great article. Whilst “unconventional” per the cats media I would say these are actually the “Big 4” in terms of BF!! Would have more posts I reckon about these 4 over past few years than nearly anyone!

All at different times have been very maligned by our BF family. Not anymore (for now)

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Many doubted Scott. Many doubted various players. Many people questioned our recruiting. It's fine and normal.

Not many were as endlessly aggressive in their mocking of posters, players and coaches who dared to suggest we might be mainly on the right track when we were repeatedly going deep in finals.

I feel for Partridge. Seeing the likes of Chris Scott, Gary Rohan, Jake Kolodjashnij, etc holding the premiership cup must've been very weird when he'd so publicly hated on them (and let's be clear it was visceral hatred if you look through the old posts). But life is good now. We had a bad year so he can go back to being a realist.

Don't forget Mark Blicavs.
An opinion so wrong I needed to leave it Sig'd.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Don't forget Mark Blicavs.
An opinion so wrong I needed to leave it Sig'd.

The chief realist doubled down on that in 2023. Apparently Blicavs "has been an outright liability for years on end, astonishingly immune from criticism, and only through Chris Scott's obsession with him has he stayed in the team."

This is about a premiership player, 2x B&F, 1x AA and another 3x AA squad selections. For a forum filled with moronic views surely that is the dumbest comment ever written here.

I unblocked him to see how he's handling our current reality defying performance. But he seems to have been strangely quiet on the topic (while posting on other stuff). Back on ignore I think although if we keep winning there won't be much to ignore.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

The chief realist doubled down on that in 2023. Apparently Blicavs "has been an outright liability for years on end, astonishingly immune from criticism, and only through Chris Scott's obsession with him has he stayed in the team."

No....... You're taking the piss. He can't be that daft as to still believe it in 2023. I mean, if Bruhn won a brownlow I am pretty confident 'ol BattleStallion would back down on him.

At least my sig'd comment was before the AA and premiership.

Uncle P has maintained the view after Sept 24 2022. ******* hell that's embarrassing.

This is about a premiership player, 2x B&F, 1x AA and another 3x AA squad selections. For a forum filled with moronic views surely that is the dumbest comment ever written here.

As far as shies at the stumps from the boundary go Mark Blicavs would be the biggest hit. We will get 300 games and at least 2x BnF, 1xAA and 1x premiership out of a Cat B steeplechaser rookie.

Probably the biggest win in draft history.

I unblocked him to see how he's handling our current reality defying performance. But he seems to have been strangely quiet on the topic (while posting on other stuff). Back on ignore I think although if we keep winning there won't be much to ignore.

Some of the other 'realists' popped up Sept 2022 and happily admitted being wrong and have enjoyed watching us since. Stress free in 2023's s**t season having achieved the success we all strive for, and with a strategy that the premiership franked the path we took. Topping up on mature-ager's was proven correct.

Yet in the first 5 pages of this thread Uncle P still maintains the critical nature of that decade of choices thinking 2013-21 near misses call that into question.

Err... No.
2022 made the decade of not bottoming out a successful period, and a successful strategy. This is irrefutable.

 

[Catman]

No....... You're taking the piss. He can't be that daft as to still believe it in 2023. I mean, if Bruhn won a brownlow I am pretty confident 'ol BattleStallion would back down on him.

At least my sig'd comment was before the AA and premiership.

Uncle P has maintained the view after Sept 24 2022. ******* hell that's embarrassing.

As far as shies at the stumps from the boundary go Mark Blicavs would be the biggest hit. We will get 300 games and at least 2x BnF, 1xAA and 1x premiership out of a Cat B steeplechaser rookie.

Probably the biggest win in draft history.

Some of the other 'realists' popped up Sept 2022 and happily admitted being wrong and have enjoyed watching us since. Stress free in 2023's s**t season having achieved the success we all strive for, and with a strategy that the premiership franked the path we took. Topping up on mature-ager's was proven correct.

Yet in the first 5 pages of this thread Uncle P still maintains the critical nature of that decade of choices thinking 2013-21 near misses call that into question.

Err... No.
2022 made the decade of not bottoming out a successful period, and a successful strategy. This is irrefutable.

As an outspoken critic of him, I often wonder how he handled Gary Rohan's match winning performance in the 2022 QF? A victory that basically put one hand on the cup.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

As an outspoken critic of him, I often wonder how he handled Gary Rohan's match winning performance in the 2022 QF? A victory that basically put one hand on the cup.

The pack mark and goal from 50 out.
Joel kicking a late goal (ala Ling) to bow out.

Up there with GAJ snap from 45m in the 07 QF and Ottens run down tackle in the GF as my favourite cats moments in finals.

 

[4quarter_cat]

The pack mark and goal from 50 out.
Joel kicking a late goal (ala Ling) to bow out.

Up there with GAJ snap from 45m in the 07 QF and Ottens run down tackle in the GF as my favourite cats moments in finals.

Nothing beats Ottens run down tackle.
hmm... maybe the toe poke. s**t we have some beauty's in recent times don't we.

Joel's was the only one that made me cry though.

 

[Mr Meow]

Top 4 and Party would go on another long hiatus I'd say. Bottom 4 and the crowing will be loud and clear.

A Mr Meow never forgets. There's a long way to go yet but we'll definitely need to lose a couple to get him back and fired up.

 

[Gunf]

Nothing beats Ottens run down tackle.
hmm... maybe the toe poke. s**t we have some beauty's in recent times don't we.

Joel's was the only one that made me cry though.

Varcoe's goal

If you are a Geelong supporter you know which one