Prediction How will the Geelong Cats fare in season 2024?

[CatToTheFuture]

Flag or 9th (just to upset tigger supporters by taking their spot)

I don't think they'd mind that at all. I'd prefer we pushed them there though

 

[Kobe Gryant]

I don't think they'd mind that at all. I'd prefer we pushed them there though

I'd argue 9th is worst case scenario, depending on how it eventuates.

I reckon we could be a real premiership threat if things go to plan...but if they don't and it's clear early on, I'd prefer to play the kids (permitting they're showing something in the VFL) and actually get something out of the season.

For instance:

1. Best case: Kids come on, old guys hold on/surprise, top 6 with a shot at a flag.

2. Next best case: We finish 6th-12th, but it's off the back of Holmes, Bruhn, SDK, Henry x2, Stengle, COS, Mannagh, Clark. We remain a destination club, with a clear new era coming through and a sustainable premiership window.

3. Worst case: 7-9th without playing youth/development from youth. It's neither here nor there, although it depends on how we do it.

If we've played kids and finished 7th-9th, then that's something to be excited about and suggests that a premiership window could be reopening through youth.

If we've played largely senior players though, and we finish 7th-9th, it's just purgatory. We're not winning the flag, and we haven't taken the steps towards our next flag.

In the US, particularly in the NBA it's referred to as purgatory/no man's land for a reason.

You're not good enough to win it, but you're not playing youth and/or finishing low enough to get the necessary talent. It's the epitome of a wasted year, and that goes for every league with a draft system.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I'd argue 9th is worst case scenario, depending on how it eventuates.

I reckon we could be a real premiership threat if things go to plan...but if they don't and it's clear early on, I'd prefer to play the kids (permitting they're showing something in the VFL) and actually get something out of the season.

For instance:

1. Best case: Kids come on, old guys hold on/surprise, top 6 with a shot at a flag.

2. Next best case: We finish 6th-12th, but it's off the back of Holmes, Bruhn, SDK, Henry x2, Stengle, COS, Mannagh, Clark. We remain a destination club, with a clear new era coming through and a sustainable premiership window.

3. Worst case: 7-9th without playing youth/development from youth. It's neither here nor there, although it depends on how we do it.

If we've played kids and finished 7th-9th, then that's something to be excited about and suggests that a premiership window could be reopening through youth.

If we've played largely senior players though, and we finish 7th-9th, it's just purgatory. We're not winning the flag, and we haven't taken the steps towards our next flag.

In the US, particularly in the NBA it's referred to as purgatory/no man's land for a reason.

You're not good enough to win it, but you're not playing youth and/or finishing low enough to get the necessary talent. It's the epitome of a wasted year, and that goes for every league with a draft system.

I think if we're not making the 8 and that's clear then we'll find plenty of senior players pushed out purely on merit. No need to gift games.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

1-18 I'm guessing.

 

[cats_09]

1-18 I'm guessing.

Do you really give North any chance of finishing higher than us this season?

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Do you really give North any chance of finishing higher than us this season?

No.

 

[CHAWKTS]

Will play finals but not sure we can win the flag with this midfield. Either knevitt and clark need to come on very quickly (long term they will be awesome but im not sure they will dominate straight away) or mannagh needs to smash it out of the park and a couple of the other middle aged mids (see parfitt hardie bowes oconnor etc) need to have very good years to be the bridge between the older and young mids.
I can see why they are trialling stewart in midfield a bit as its clearly our weakest line and hes about our best player but it would be a big risk trying it when hes such an elite defender.
Rucks are an issue too i think stanley is on the decline and conway isnt ready to take over i can see stages where blitz will have to play as the 1st ruck supported by sdk or neale or jeka which isnt ideal.

The fwd line is elite and the backline is good enough to win a flag this year whether we can go all the way is on the midfield. The good news is if collingwood can win with such a weak side anything is possible.

Hard to argue with you on that…but I do see a massive step up from 2023. Guthrie back is HUGE. And I think we will see Bruhn become an A grade midfielder this year (he has come back very fit I understand and massive improvement in running pre season). If those 2 come back like I think they will we won’t notice our midfield from 2023…. And if that is the case then our backs and forwards are pretty good.

I do agree though that if we have a real bounce there will need to be at the end of the year at least 3 new “best 22” like we had in 2022 (SDK, Stengle and one other? With Miers, Close and Holmes all improving massively)…. For 2024 I think we will get the improvement from those in 22 (bruhn and hopefully Stengle back to 2022 along with Guthrie) but need a few of Knevitte/Dempsey/Mannah/Clarke/Oisin to be genuine best 22 and push out the likes of 2E/Rohan/Bews/Other

 

[CoolCat75]

Probably the widest range of possibilities in a generation : 2-14. I’m optimistic that with a good injury run and the key veterans holding on, that we can be at the pointy end.


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[Mattttty]

Hard to argue with you on that…but I do see a massive step up from 2023. Guthrie back is HUGE. And I think we will see Bruhn become an A grade midfielder this year (he has come back very fit I understand and massive improvement in running pre season). If those 2 come back like I think they will we won’t notice our midfield from 2023…. And if that is the case then our backs and forwards are pretty good.

I do agree though that if we have a real bounce there will need to be at the end of the year at least 3 new “best 22” like we had in 2022 (SDK, Stengle and one other? With Miers, Close and Holmes all improving massively)…. For 2024 I think we will get the improvement from those in 22 (bruhn and hopefully Stengle back to 2022 along with Guthrie) but need a few of Knevitte/Dempsey/Mannah/Clarke/Oisin to be genuine best 22 and push out the likes of 2E/Rohan/Bews/Other

Love this summary. And nice to hear your observations on Bruhn. I reckon he's got loads of potential and excited to see how he performs this season!

 

[catscratchfever]

Not confident unless our youngsters step up in a major way.

Same old tired midfield. Clangerfield's last season surely?

7-10th.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Not confident unless our youngsters step up in a major way.

Same old tired midfield. Clangerfield's last season surely?

7-10th.

Forget to switch from your burner account?

 

[catscratchfever]

Forget to switch from your burner account?

I've been here a long time. That's my opinion. If you don't like it I have other ones

 

[Kobe Gryant]

I've been here a long time. That's my opinion. If you don't like it I have other ones

Your opinion of 7th-10th might very well be right. I've got no issue with that.

Old and tired midfield though? It's just objectively wrong.

Our biggest issue last year was our lack of experience through there, particularly through May & June.

Tanner Bruhn, Max Holmes, Tom Atkins, & to a lesser extent in that period, Mitch Knevitt & Jhye Clark can't be expected to shoulder the load.

4 of them are too young, and 1 of them (Atkins), as tough and loved as he is, isn't up to being the number 1 midfielder week in, week out.

You add that to Dangerfield, Stanley & Guthrie missing considerable time, and Duncan no longer being run through the guts, and you'll find that your 'opinion' is just blatantly incorrect.

If anything, we need those players to play a decent chunk of the year to be any chance of competing with the best midfields in the game, as the youngsters running through there won't be up to it for another year or two in all likelihood.

 

[catscratchfever]

Your opinion of 7th-10th might very well be right. I've got no issue with that.

Old and tired midfield though? It's just objectively wrong.

Our biggest issue last year was our lack of experience through there, particularly through May & June.

Tanner Bruhn, Max Holmes, Tom Atkins, & to a lesser extent in that period, Mitch Knevitt & Jhye Clark can't be expected to shoulder the load.

4 of them are too young, and 1 of them (Atkins), as tough and loved as he is, isn't up to being the number 1 midfielder week in, week out.

You add that to Dangerfield, Stanley & Guthrie missing considerable time, and Duncan no longer being run through the guts, and you'll find that you're 'opinion' is just blatantly incorrect.

If anything, we need those players to play a decent chunk of the year to be any chance of competing with the best midfields in the game, as the youngsters running through there won't be up to it for another year or two in all likelihood.

Only time will tell and I hope you're right. But I just get the ugly feeling that we're no longer to be feared - we are farkin old, let's face it.

But we do have the best coach in the land so there's definitely hope.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Only time will tell and I hope you're right. But I just get the ugly feeling that we're no longer to be feared - we are farkin old, let's face it.

But we do have the best coach in the land so there's definitely hope.

Yes and no.

We're in a unique spot, where we do have a large contingent of over 30s, but we're also very young simultaneously.

What it's going to take for us to win a premiership next year is likely going to be these factors.

(I'm not predicting a premiership BTW)

- Tom Stewart remaining an AA calibre player, either as a midfielder or defender.

- Tom Hawkins, Mitch Duncan, Patrick Dangerfield & Mark Blicavs maintaining decent form. Nothing extraordinary, but quality performances nonetheless, and hopefully playing no more than around 15 games.

- Jeremy Cameron & Cam Guthrie reverting to 2022 form, or something close to it.

- Tyson Stengle, Brad Close, Zach Guthrie, Tom Atkins, & Jack Henry all replicating their 2022 form, or exceeding it (Miers was better in 2023, so he's a different case)

- Sam De Koning, Tanner Bruhn, Ollie Henry, & Max Holmes all making a leap to varying degrees, with players like Knevitt, Demspey, COS, Clark, Willis, Conway & Neale all ideally improving as well.

- Jack Bowes & Shaun Mannagh surprising, and cementing their place in the best 22.

******************

What you'll see is while that's a lot of 'if' scenarios, there's not many that are actually based on being 'old'.

The older contingent of Kolo, Bews, Touhy, Stanley and even Duncan to an extent aren't the core anymore.

They all have the ability to still be best 22, and very well might be with a summer to refresh, but they're not going to be the reason this season goes well, or the reason it doesn't.

The likes of Cameron, Stewart & Guthrie SNR should be expected to maintain something close to what we're accustomed too, and the likes of Danger, Hawkins, & Blicavs shouldn't be required to be match winners week in, week out.

Basically, something resembling 2022 form would be ideal from the latter 3, which doesn't require a miracle to occur.

We seem to forget that Danger was poor (by his incredible standards) for much of that year, and injured for a lot of it too.

The crucial group for us is Stengle, Close, Jack Henry, Bowes, Mannagh, Zuthrie, & Atkins, along with Stewart, Cameron & Guthrie.

These are players who are either at the peak of their powers, or approaching their prime football years.

For instance, if Stengle can replicate his 2022, Miers his 2023, & Jack Henry finally stay healthy and deliver on his 2021 potential which was the trajectory of an All Australian, then we're going to be in for a good year.

And unlike the Russian roulette of relying on dominance from players over 30, these scenarios are actually pretty likely to occur, all things being equal.

Not certainties, but they're all players in their prime, with something to prove after 2023...so I'm expecting something at least close to the aforementioned examples.

It's a similar story with the likes of Bruhn, Holmes, SDK, Ollie Henry, Dempsey, Knevitt, Conway, Clark, COS, and so on.

While they're still very young, their careers are obviously on an upwards trajectory, and it's highly likely that they're all going to improve incrementally as is the case with young players.

Again, it's not the roulette of praying that a player maintains form into their mid-thirties...these are scenarios we should be expecting to occur.

So to conclude, if you look at our list it's actually not the concern you're seeing it as IMO.

A lot of the improvement and dictation of terms is going to come from the younger group as well as a better run with injury; where as the older group just needs to hold on and be solid contributors.

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

That Cam Guthrie kid might be a nice inclusion.

Be nice if his brother kicks it to him every now and then in the coming year. Bring him into the game a bit. Boost the kid's confidence!

 

[bombersboy]

With a better run with injury and natural improvement in some of the young players I expect we will make the 8. If we do bounce back and say make top 4 will 2023 be written off as the Daisy factor?

 

[Phipppppa]

6th personally.

can see us starting the year well, injuries happen and we slip a few games

 

[The rabbi]

1-18 I'm guessing.

You are going out on a limb there JC13.

 

[Lana]

We're a midfield away from the premiership. Our forward and back lines are top tier.

If the MC can manufacture a competitive midfield everything else should be pushing us towards top 4.

Remains to be seen how.

 

[bombersboy]

We're a midfield away from the premiership. Our forward and back lines are top tier.

If the MC can manufacture a competitive midfield everything else should be pushing us towards top 4.

Remains to be seen how.

Would have said the same thing at the start of 2022. There were quiet a few on this board calling for Joel's retirement then look what happened.

 

[AM]

We're a midfield away from the premiership. Our forward and back lines are top tier.

If the MC can manufacture a competitive midfield everything else should be pushing us towards top 4.

Remains to be seen how.

Agree about the midfield. Don't agree the back half is suited to today's style of play. The fact they fast tracked Oisin leads me to believe CS is of that view too.

At the end of the day, as with all teams, the health of the list is what will determine where we finish.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Agree about the midfield. Don't agree the back half is suited to today's style of play. The fact they fast tracked Oisin leads me to believe CS is of that view too.

At the end of the day, as with all teams, the health of the list is what will determine where we finish.

Yep, those 9 months post 2022 really changed the game dramatically.

It's almost unrecognisable to the season just prior, it'll take a miracle for that back 6 to be competitive.

 

[TheWoodenSlug]

Hoping for finals, but can't see us winning the flag. Basically the same as I felt going into the 2022 season.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

We're a midfield away from the premiership. Our forward and back lines are top tier.

If the MC can manufacture a competitive midfield everything else should be pushing us towards top 4.

Remains to be seen how.

With our age profile in the mids it will be very hard to manufacture it. Realistically you either need a couple of bruhn clark and knevitt to smash like it like only 5th or 6th year mids in their prime normally do (its not likely but not impossible) or we will have to bring in a couple of very good 26yo free agent mids at the end of the year.