Prediction How will the Geelong Cats fare in season 2024?

[cats_09]

This is SEN view of Cats most improved and biggest surprise (they did same for all clubs). Interesting…

IMO I think Miers is probably right (although a lot of that is because outside people underestimated what he did last year!) but I could argue Tanner has made a bigger step so I would have him most improved

Biggest surprise…it is hard I suppose to argue with Parf given we are surprised he has got back to good form after missing lots of opportunities last year. But I could put Kolo in the same space as a surprise return to form. I think really the one that has genuinely surprised most people is Dempsey? Expectations from most that wouldn’t be in Round 1 and then definite replaced by Rohan (if not Mannagh before that) and now we all think he is a lock and they need to move other magnets around to keep him in. When you think of that it is a serious surprise from 4 weeks ago?

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Guthrie listed as ‘In the mix’ for most improved seems like it’s written by someone who hasn’t watch much of Geelong over recent years. If you had him in that category in 2022 then no arguement, but I feel like he’s been playing at a really solid level for a couple of years now, but externally there’s been much more of a focus on Stewart (always), plus the emergence of SDK that Zach has kinda gone under the radar if you’re not a Geelong fan

Also agree about Miers - what he’s doing so far this year is def a step up on what he showed last year but probably not as much of a step up on things when you consider his 2023 versus earlier years

I’d totally go with Tanner as our most improved this year so far when compared to his previous seasons - we got some glimpses of things last year, but so far this year he looks like a player who wants to not just be a midfield contributor but a leader in there. There’s often been discussion about who replaces Selwood & then Dangerfield in the guts, and while it’s only a small sample size, Tanner has put his hand up to be part of that core for the next decade+



I’d then have Parfitt or Dempsey as the biggest suprise - can def understand why they’ve gone with Parftt as he was overlooked for round 1, a stay at home emergency for round 2 until being told to get his a$$ on a plane as he would likely be needed and he’s def grabbed his opportunity with both hands

The argument could also be made about Dempsey who did some nice things in his senior games last season. but still had a few question marks about converting VFL form to AFL form. Dempsey being acknowledged with the Round 1 Rising Star nom is surely the biggest surprise amongst that field so far - I’m not sure what his odds were to receive a nom at any stage of the season, let alone Rnd 1

 

[Vdubs]

People still haven’t got their head around what an older list means for performance. Age is positively correlated with performance.

I hope you're correct.

 

[catempire]

I hope you're correct.

I’m describing an empirical fact.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Guthrie listed as ‘In the mix’ for most improved seems like it’s written by someone who hasn’t watch much of Geelong over recent years. If you had him in that category in 2022 then no arguement, but I feel like he’s been playing at a really solid level for a couple of years now, but externally there’s been much more of a focus on Stewart (always), plus the emergence of SDK that Zach has kinda gone under the radar if you’re not a Geelong fan

Also agree about Miers - what he’s doing so far this year is def a step up on what he showed last year but probably not as much of a step up on things when you consider his 2023 versus earlier years

I’d totally go with Tanner as our most improved this year so far when compared to his previous seasons - we got some glimpses of things last year, but so far this year he looks like a player who wants to not just be a midfield contributor but a leader in there. There’s often been discussion about who replaces Selwood & then Dangerfield in the guts, and while it’s only a small sample size, Tanner has put his hand up to be part of that core for the next decade+



I’d then have Parfitt or Dempsey as the biggest suprise - can def understand why they’ve gone with Parftt as he was overlooked for round 1, a stay at home emergency for round 2 until being told to get his a$$ on a plane as he would likely be needed and he’s def grabbed his opportunity with both hands

The argument could also be made about Dempsey who did some nice things in his senior games last season. but still had a few question marks about converting VFL form to AFL form. Dempsey being acknowledged with the Round 1 Rising Star nom is surely the biggest surprise amongst that field so far - I’m not sure what his odds were to receive a nom at any stage of the season, let alone Rnd 1

100%. The great thing about Zuthrie is his consistency.

He might never be an AA type, but there's virtually no difference between his good games and his bad games.

He's the same guy every week, and gone from a whipping boy to one of our most reliable.

 

[iameviljez]

We are 4-0, and it's a great start. We should be 5-0 after NM. But I could easily see us going to 5-5 after the hard stretch. I saw AFL champion data had our midfield ranked last...

Yeah, I agree. But it's perhaps a slightly overstatement of where we really sit - we were lucky against Adelaide and the Dogs, and none of the sides we've beaten are genuinely good.

Brisbane away, then Melbourne, will tell us a hell of a lot.

 

[witsend]

100%. The great thing about Zuthrie is his consistency.

He might never be an AA type, but there's virtually no difference between his good games and his bad games.

He's the same guy every week, and gone from a whipping boy to one of our most reliable.

I confess I've been a Zuthrie fan from Day 1. Even when he looked like an Auskick kid! He has always had poise and class, and a seemingly cerebral approach to his footy, as well as occasional and timely flashes of flair. His decision making and execution is elite, in my opinion, and he now has an AFL body and can't be so easily "rag-dolled". I felt very early on that he had the potential to be a Ken Hinkley type defender for us over a couple of hundred games. A magnet CS will rarely, if ever, need to move.

 

[TEDDY24INC]

I confess I've been a Zuthrie fan from Day 1. Even when he looked like an Auskick kid! He has always had poise and class, and a seemingly cerebral approach to his footy, as well as occasional and timely flashes of flair. His decision making and execution is elite, in my opinion, and he now has an AFL body and can't be so easily "rag-dolled". I felt very early on that he had the potential to be a Ken Hinkley type defender for us over a couple of hundred games. A magnet CS will rarely, if ever, need to move.

Agree, thought he showed talent very early on was just physically undeveloped

 

[TEDDY24INC]

Yeah, I agree. But it's perhaps a slightly overstatement of where we really sit - we were lucky against Adelaide and the Dogs, and none of the sides we've beaten are genuinely good.

Brisbane away, then Melbourne, will tell us a hell of a lot.

We were not lucky against Adelaide and the bulldogs, we controlled both games. That is unless you believe the media clickbait narratives..

 

[iameviljez]

We were not lucky against Adelaide and the bulldogs, we controlled both games

Particularly the Dogs game, we had a fair chunk of luck riding shotgun. You always need a bit of that to win a less-than-a-kick game.

 

[Gunf]

Particularly the Dogs game, we had a fair chunk of luck riding shotgun. You always need a bit of that to win a less-than-a-kick game.

Against the Dogs we were fairly even in the first quarter controlled the next 2 before a 5 day break in we conditions and delays caught up to us and they dominated the last.
That doesn't scream lucky us to me that screams lucky them that the fixture quirk let them get close to overrunning us.

 

[Mr Meow]

Particularly the Dogs game, we had a fair chunk of luck riding shotgun. You always need a bit of that to win a less-than-a-kick game.

We had more scoring shots, more inside 50s and 120 minutes of the match we were ahead. They had one quarter on top, the last where the short break saw us out of legs.

I'll take "lucky" every day of the week if that's what it means.

 

[D BRIDGE]

We had more scoring shots, more inside 50s and 120 minutes of the match we were ahead. They had one quarter on top, the last where the short break saw us out of legs.

I'll take "lucky" every day of the week if that's what it means.

We also got lucky and won the free kick count by minus 2.

 

[Gazza Greatness]

Guthrie listed as ‘In the mix’ for most improved seems like it’s written by someone who hasn’t watch much of Geelong over recent years. If you had him in that category in 2022 then no arguement, but I feel like he’s been playing at a really solid level for a couple of years now, but externally there’s been much more of a focus on Stewart (always), plus the emergence of SDK that Zach has kinda gone under the radar if you’re not a Geelong fan

Also agree about Miers - what he’s doing so far this year is def a step up on what he showed last year but probably not as much of a step up on things when you consider his 2023 versus earlier years

I’d totally go with Tanner as our most improved this year so far when compared to his previous seasons - we got some glimpses of things last year, but so far this year he looks like a player who wants to not just be a midfield contributor but a leader in there. There’s often been discussion about who replaces Selwood & then Dangerfield in the guts, and while it’s only a small sample size, Tanner has put his hand up to be part of that core for the next decade+



I’d then have Parfitt or Dempsey as the biggest suprise - can def understand why they’ve gone with Parftt as he was overlooked for round 1, a stay at home emergency for round 2 until being told to get his a$$ on a plane as he would likely be needed and he’s def grabbed his opportunity with both hands

The argument could also be made about Dempsey who did some nice things in his senior games last season. but still had a few question marks about converting VFL form to AFL form. Dempsey being acknowledged with the Round 1 Rising Star nom is surely the biggest surprise amongst that field so far - I’m not sure what his odds were to receive a nom at any stage of the season, let alone Rnd 1

I'm probably Ollie Dempsey's biggest fan and although I couldn't make it to the first game I told my son David to take particular notice of Ollie in the game because one day he'll be one of the best players in the AFL and I still stand by that. So it's no surprise to me with what he has achieved this year because I'm such a big fan of his but I'm also a big fan of Tanner Bruhn, Sam De Koning, Toby Conway, Ollie Henry, Max Holmes, Connor O'Sullivan, Oisin Mullin, Jhye Clark, etc, etc, etc.

What should be written up and 'highlighted' is what Wellsy and Mackie and the development team have done, it's been 'effen unbelievable' what these guys have put together 'from virtually nothing'.... GO CATS !!!

 

[catempire]

I think history tends to show there are very few 4-0 pretenders. Even fewer 5-0 pretenders.

What might appear to be luck with a small sample size tends to turn out more often than not as superiority.

5-0 teams in the past decade:

2014 - Geelong (3rd)

2015 - Fremantle (1st)

2016 - North (8th)

2017 - Adelaide (1st), Geelong (2nd) and Richmond (3rd)

2018 - none

2019 - none

2020 - none

2021 - Bulldogs (5th), Melbourne (1st)

2022 - Melbourne (2nd)

2023 - none

 

[Mr Meow]

Assuming we win this weekend, we will be 5-0 and about to start a tough run:

-Brisbane (Gabba)
-Carlton (MCG)
-Melbourne (MCG)
-Port (GMHBA)
-Gold Coast (Darwin)
-GWS (GMHBA)

Consensus seems to be that 3-0 or even 2-4 would be a good result. I think 4-2 is a realistic aim.

If we can take one of the MCG games, one of the road trips north and both games at home then we will be 9-2.

That would mean a 7-5 run home would see us secure top 4. 5 of those games are at home. Essendon at the G and NM in Tasmania are 2 others.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Assuming we win this weekend, we will be 5-0 and about to start a tough run:

-Brisbane (Gabba)
-Carlton (MCG)
-Melbourne (MCG)
-Port (GMHBA)
-Gold Coast (Darwin)
-GWS (GMHBA)

Consensus seems to be that 3-0 or even 2-4 would be a good result. I think 4-2 is a realistic aim.

If we can take one of the MCG games, one of the road trips north and both games at home then we will be 9-2.

That would mean a 7-5 run home would see us secure top 4. 5 of those games are at home. Essendon at the G and NM in Tasmania are 2 others.

Definitely tough.

Really need to see which version of Brisbane rocks up next week

 

[Mr Meow]

Definitely tough.

Really need to see which version of Brisbane rocks up next week

Absolutely.

Overall if we have a healthy squad I still think we should only be dropping one game maximum at home. And we should be capable of winning about half of our Melbourne games and interstate trips.

That's around 15 wins +/- 1.

No idea if that's in line with the group think. I had us 6th this season and early days our form is probably in line with that. We'll need a couple of big scalps to push further.

 

[fpm84]

Definitely tough.

Really need to see which version of Brisbane rocks up next week

We should be expecting Brisbane at their best - their season hasn’t been saved yet and if they don’t beat us they’ll be 2-4 and again facing an uphill battle just to make finals.

Looking at that tough fixture ahead, I’d be very surprised/disappointed if we didn’t win at least one of the home games v Port and GWS. I don’t see any reason why we can’t win one of the Blues or Demons games too - I don’t see either team as being streets ahead of us.

 

[cats_09]

Definitely tough.

Really need to see which version of Brisbane rocks up next week

And then Melbourne a couple of weeks later

 

[cats_09]

Into the top 4, and no longer have the worse percentage in the top 8

 

[CatToTheFuture]

And then Melbourne a couple of weeks later

I think we have the tools to beat Melbourne. I think at Kardinia Park we'll be able to put defensive mids around Port's guns and put up a decent fight at a ground they hate

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Assuming we win this weekend, we will be 5-0 and about to start a tough run:

-Brisbane (Gabba)
-Carlton (MCG)
-Melbourne (MCG)
-Port (GMHBA)
-Gold Coast (Darwin)
-GWS (GMHBA)

Consensus seems to be that 3-0 or even 2-4 would be a good result. I think 4-2 is a realistic aim.

If we can take one of the MCG games, one of the road trips north and both games at home then we will be 9-2.

That would mean a 7-5 run home would see us secure top 4. 5 of those games are at home. Essendon at the G and NM in Tasmania are 2 others.

As long as we can win three of them we're going to be fine IMO. That's my pass mark in terms of us still looking like a top 2 threat.

5-0 gives us a really good cushion, and if we just win 3/6 with Danger & Guthrie to come back in for the run home, that should be the goal.

4/6 would be awesome, 5/6 or 6/6 and we're booking GF tickets.

 

[Mr Meow]

Put a line through the Bulldogs as finals contenders I reckon. 5 rounds is enough to see the funk remains there until they change coach. Handy for us that they and Adelaide have had poor starts to the season, as two potential "climbers" into the 8.

Brisbane and Collingwood have gotten their seasons back off life support but any losses over the next month bring them right back to jeopardy. That also works well for us.

St Kilda have injury and scoring issues. Gold Coast will probably need a year to bed in with Hardwick before finals. I'm confident we'll finish ahead of them.

Bombers are Bombers. They tend to start well then fade. Might put their hand up for 8th and an EF flogging, or fold a bit earlier.

So that really leaves GWS, Sydney, Carlton, Melbourne, Port, Freo and Geelong as the "early bolters" or the short-medium term leading pack. If they maintain winning runs over the next 5 or so weeks you'd expect it would be hard to remove them from the 8. The other sides I've mentioned would need to string a few wins together to avoid lagging behind.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Put a line through the Bulldogs as finals contenders I reckon. 5 rounds is enough to see the funk remains there until they change coach. Handy for us that they and Adelaide have had poor starts to the season, as two potential "climbers" into the 8.

Brisbane and Collingwood have gotten their seasons back off life support but any losses over the next month bring them right back to jeopardy. That also works well for us.

St Kilda have injury and scoring issues. Gold Coast will probably need a year to bed in with Hardwick before finals. I'm confident we'll finish ahead of them.

Bombers are Bombers. They tend to start well then fade. Might put their hand up for 8th and an EF flogging, or fold a bit earlier.

So that really leaves GWS, Sydney, Carlton, Melbourne, Port, Freo and Geelong as the "early bolters" or the short-medium term leading pack. If they maintain winning runs over the next 5 or so weeks you'd expect it would be hard to remove them from the 8. The other sides I've mentioned would need to string a few wins together to avoid lagging behind.

I would have had gold coast in to make finals with or without Dimma

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

We are 4-0, and it's a great start. We should be 5-0 after NM. But I could easily see us going to 5-5 after the hard stretch. I saw AFL champion data had our midfield ranked last...

I'd be pretty happy to be 7-3, after the first 10...

Who's the No.1 midfield? Port guns stake their claim

Butters, Rozee and Horne-Francis caught the eye against Essendon but the numbers say there are others even better

www.afl.com.au

You can easily see us losing 5 games in a row??