Draft Expert Davo-27's 2024 Draft Thread

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I think you have missed the point r_boy. It’s not about results at Coates League, it’s about giving the boys the best opportunity to get drafted. From my perspective the program has huge problems as the team is playing really bad footy compared to Eastern and Sandy and jeopardising these kids futures.

We've never/hardly heard about the struggles of other clubs, and how that effects those young kids.

But now that it's the Oakleigh chargers it's a big deal?

Maybe it's a good thing some other clubs are getting a turn with the better support systems and exposure?
 
It’s gonna be a long and tough year for the Chargers.
Everything in life can be fixed so long as people are prepared to speak up and the people running the show are prepared to listen and acknowledge their performance is poor and be willing to change.
We've never/hardly heard about the struggles of other clubs, and how that effects those young kids.

But now that it's the Oakleigh chargers it's a big deal?

Maybe it's a good thing some other clubs are getting a turn with the better support systems and exposure?
I don’t know about other clubs, maybe they have issues but until someone who closely follows those teams writes about it then it’s moot.
Again win/loss is irrelevant which you seem to be focusing on. It’s the program that’s meant to help these kids get drafted and right now it appears from a distance to be a mess, thus they are jeopardising these kids futures.
I would hope every CTL team is run as good as possible giving every kid the best chance of taking their footy as far as possible. I live down south in the Stingrays catchment and from what I’ve heard they are a solid club with the challenge of kids coming in from a quite a large geographic catchment but Oakleigh is the club I’ve always taken an interest in.
 
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Vic Country were by far the worst team at the u16s champs, they had a lot of good talent that has recently been identified which were missing from that u16s team which could make it harder for Eastham to be selected for u18s, but Eastham was there at the u16s and he wasnt great, looking at my u16s notes he scored 2 and 5 while kicking 2 goals in his 2 games, so not great numbers, compared to Kako who kicked 6 goals and scored 6, 13 and 7, so i wouldnt have them close in draft talent from their u16s, Kako easily top 30, Eastham not draft worthy on u16s form imo, their CTL form is very different as well Eastham 10 gms 10 gls to Kako 16 gms 33gls before this season, not even going into the difference in pace and athleticism..... Eastham has to improve, simple as that.
Fair enough, I see a lot of upside to eastham though and his game on the weekend had people excited is what I have been hearing. If he can continue this form and have a consistent season I wonder where he will lie on draft boards. Mitch stevens (father son) looked to have hit the scoreboard as well I wonder what his stocks will look like after 2-3 years of not much play due to leg injuries
 

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Fair enough, I see a lot of upside to eastham though and his game on the weekend had people excited is what I have been hearing. If he can continue this form and have a consistent season I wonder where he will lie on draft boards. Mitch stevens (father son) looked to have hit the scoreboard as well I wonder what his stocks will look like after 2-3 years of not much play due to leg injuries
Eastham should've had a handful on the weekend. Exciting and has sticky mitts. hope the young lad continues this form.
 
Is the AFL Academy team playing this weekend like last years academy did?
Next week.

ACADEMY GUNS JOIN FORCES​


THE COUNTRY's leading draft hopefuls will come together next week for the Marsh AFL Academy's game against Coburg's VFL side.


The clash, featuring many of the top talents in this year's draft class, will be in Melbourne for a camp next week and then play as the Academy against Coburg on Saturday, April 13 at Ikon Park.


The games against VFL opponents as well as the prospects' time training with AFL clubs over the pre-season are the key moments of the Academy program.


Injuries will unfortunately see several highly-rated players, such as Finn O'Sullivan (thumb), Sid Draper (shin) and Jonty Faull (back), not play, while groin soreness has kept Sam Lalor out for the start of the season as well.

The clash with Coburg will be the first of two games against VFL opposition, with the Academy gathering again two weeks later to meet Footscray's VFL team on the weekend of April 27-28
 
Updated top 50 - April


1. Finn O'Sullivan - Oakleigh (VC) - 181cm
2. Levi Ashcroft - Sandringham (Bris FS) - 179cm
3. Josh Smillie - Eastern - 194cm
4. Leonardo Lombard - GCS A - 178cm
5. Jagga Smith - Oakleigh - 181cm
6. Jobe Shanahan - Bendigo (NSW) - 192cm
7. Harry O'Farrell - Calder - 196cm
8. Jonty Faull - GWV - 194cm
9. Sid Draper - Sth Adel - 180cm
10. Josh Murphy - Murray - 190cm
11. Tyler Welsh - WWT (Adel FS)- 191cm
12. Tobie Travaglia - Bendigo - 187cm
13. Christian Moraes - Eastern - 182cm
14. Taj Hotton - Sandringham - 182cm
15. Phoenix Hargrave - Sth Adel - 182cm
16. Tom Gross - Oakleigh - 180cm
17. Xavier Lindsay - Gippsland - 182cm
18. Luke Trainor - Sandringham - 193cm
19. Noah Mraz - Dandenong - 198cm
20. Murphy Reid - Sandringham - 181cm
21. Ben Camporeale - Glenlg (Carl FS) - 184cm
22. Lucas Camporeale - Glenlg (Carl FS) - 182cm
23. Benny Barrett - Sth Adel (Port NGA)- 174cm
24. Isaac Kako - Calder (Ess NGA) - 175cm
25. Sam Marshall - Sandringham (Bris A) - 185cm
26. Nash King - Calder - 181cm
27. Nathaniel Sulzberger - Sandringham/Tas - 184cm
28. Patrick Retschko - Oakleigh - 186cm
29. Zak Johnson - Northern - 185cm
30. Joe Harrison - Syd A 179cm
31. Kayle Gerryn - West Perth - 198cm
32. Otis Harvey - Swan Dist - 182cm
33. Sam Lalor - GWV - 187cm
34. Lucas McInerney - Northern 180cm
35. Jack Whitlock - Murray 199cm
36. Joe Berry - Murray 180cm
37. Harvey Langford - Dandenong 190cm
38. Damon Hollow - Calder 180cm
39. Cooper Hynes - Dandenong 190cm
40. Jesse Dattoli - Northern 179cm
41. Lucca Grego - Western 184cm
42. Flynn Penry - GWV 201cm
43. Matt Whitlock - Murray 197cm
44. Kade Herbert - WWT 183cm
45. Archer Day-Wicks - Bendigo 185cm
46. Ned Atkinson - Sturt 180cm
47. Jacob Newton - Norwood 175cm
48. Louis Montgomery - Nth Adel (Port FS) 183cm
49. Malakai Champion - Subiaco 172cm
50. Austin Van Der Struyf - Claremont 178cm
 
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Updated top 50 - April


1. Finn O'Sullivan - Oakleigh (VC) - 181cm
2. Levi Ashcroft - Sandringham (Bris FS) - 179cm
3. Josh Smillie - Eastern - 194cm
4. Leonardo Lombard - GCS A - 178cm
5. Jagga Smith - Oakleigh - 181cm
6. Jobe Shanahan - Bendigo (NSW) - 192cm
7. Harry O'Farrell - Calder - 196cm
8. Jonty Faull - GWV - 194cm
9. Sid Draper - Sth Adel - 180cm
10. Josh Murphy - Murray - 190cm
11. Tyler Welsh - WWT (Adel FS)- 191cm
12. Tobie Travaglia - Bendigo - 187cm
13. Christian Moraes - Eastern - 182cm
14. Taj Hotton - Sandringham - 182cm
15. Phoenix Hargrave - Sth Adel - 182cm
16. Tom Gross - Oakleigh - 180cm
17. Xavier Lindsay - Gippsland - 182cm
18. Luke Trainor - Sandringham - 193cm
19. Noah Mraz - Dandenong - 198cm
20. Murphy Reid - Sandringham - 181cm
21. Ben Camporeale - Glenlg (Carl FS) - 184cm
22. Lucas Camporeale - Glenlg (Carl FS) - 182cm
23. Benny Barrett - Sth Adel (Port NGA)- 174cm
24. Isaac Kako - Calder (Ess NGA) - 175cm
25. Sam Marshall - Sandringham (Bris A) - 185cm
26. Nash King - Calder - 181cm
27. Nathaniel Sulzberger - Sandringham/Tas - 184cm
28. Patrick Retschko - Oakleigh - 186cm
29. Zak Johnson - Northern - 185cm
30. Joe Harrison - Syd A 179cm
31. Kayle Gerryn - West Perth - 198cm
32. Otis Harvey - Swan Dist - 182cm
33. Sam Lalor - GWV - 187cm
34. Lucas McInerney - Northern 180cm
35. Jack Whitlock - Murray 199cm
36. Joe Berry - Murray 180cm
37. Harvey Langford - Dandenong 190cm
38. Damon Hollow - Calder 180cm
39. Cooper Hynes - Dandenong 190cm
40. Jesse Dattoli - Northern 179cm
41. Lucca Grego - Western 184cm
42. Flynn Penry - GWV 201cm
43. Matt Whitlock - Murray 197cm
Are you being under reactive to Taj's game here. Players who perform at that level are drafted top 5 with very few exceptions.

It wasn't just a game with high numbers, he demonstrated a very broad skillset.
 
Are you being under reactive to Taj's game here. Players who perform at that level are drafted top 5 with very few exceptions.

It wasn't just a game with high numbers, he demonstrated a very broad skillset.
i take into account 3 years of football, its not based on 1 game... also what i think they could do at the next level ect, they go up and down the rankings as i see more evidence of what type of player they are and how likely they are to making it at the next level, its a process, im a 1 man team covering hundreds of junior footballers and making calls based on my memory which is pretty good.

Taj's ranking has risen a lot recently, i did an analysis on the futures GF game last year about a month ago and he scored highly there, he was 1 of the dominant players who destroyed Oakleigh in the pre-season RSEA game and he has been a strong performer in the 2 games in the CTL so far(during the early season when every player is available), he has developed a lot and eventually could rise to those heights, but i like to be a little cautious until i see it consistently or at the state level.
 
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Theres a few from the CTL that i want to mention that i think have some talent and could be on clubs radars

Josh Dolan - Sandringham - 177cm - midfielder
Harry Armstrong - Sandringham - 195cm - athletic slim KPF potential, but yet to stand out
Jak Ryan - Eastern - 176cm - small forward - quick elusive and clever, he is a real danger in the forward half
Zac McGown - Eastern - 189cm - medium defender, good contested footy, wins 1 on 1s, uses it well
Thomas Sims - Northern - 199cm - KPF, good contested mark, good kick at goal, moves well for a strong tall
Gabriel Stumpf - Northern - 196cm - mobile KPF, good kick at goal, quicker than he should be
Luke Quaynor - Oakleigh (Coll NGA) - 179cm - brother of Isaac at the pies, really solid hbf
Doug Kerr - Oakleigh (Coll NGA) - 192cm - tall strong mid
Jayden Nguyen - Calder (Ess NGA)- 177cm - very slim and size could hold him back a little, quality player though
Xavier Ivisic - Geelong - 180cm - seems to have gone backwards over the last couple of years, needs to really dominate a game soon or could be fighting for a chance to be drafted from my pov
Lachie Jaques - Geelong - 184cm - strong marking small defender, good use of the footy
Angus Morrison - Geelong - - Tallish forward
Harrison Doughton - Dandenong - 185cm - midfielder
Elwood Peckett - Dandenong (Stk FS)- 187cm - strong defender, pushes into midfield
Archie Watt - Bendigo - 181cm - tough red headed midfielder
Rhys Unwin - GWV - 178cm - small forward
Oliver Hannaford - GWV - 180cm - midfielder
Jack Ough - GWV - 194cm - utility
Max Stobie - Gippsland - 180cm - defender/midfielder

special mention to....
Zaydyn Lockwood - Bendigo - 198cm - one of the best defenders ive seen this year, i wanted to put him in the top 50, but i just couldn't fit him, potential star on the rise?, i need to see more, but he looks good, really good spoil.
 
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i take into account 3 years of football, its not based on 1 game... also what i think they could do at the next level ect, they go up and down the rankings as i see more evidence of what type of player they are and how likely they are to making it at the next level, its a process, im a 1 man team covering hundreds of junior footballers and making calls based on my memory which is pretty good.

Taj's ranking has risen a lot recently, i did an analysis on the futures GF game last year about a month ago and he scored highly there, he was 1 of the dominant players who destroyed Oakleigh in the pre-season RSEA game and he has been a strong performer in the 2 games in the CTL so far(during the early season when every player is available), he has developed a lot and eventually could rise to those heights, but i like to be a little cautious until i see it consistently or at the state level.
I appreciate your 3 year approach and your analysis in general. I genuinely learn a lot from your analysis.

What I like about the long-term approach is that you spot and hold prospects that could be forgotten in their draft years. Which is wise because development is not linear and multiple temporary issues can lead to a disappointing year.

The way I differ philosophically is that while I agree with being cautious in a negative sense (don't over react to bad form) I think scouts should be far less cautious in a positive sense. If players can show they can dominate their peers (to that level)I view that as a significant demonstration of upside that can lead to radical changes in rankings.

Maybe I am getting the balance wrong but I am curious how you have learnt to balance it.
 
I appreciate your 3 year approach and your analysis in general. I genuinely learn a lot from your analysis.

What I like about the long-term approach is that you spot and hold prospects that could be forgotten in their draft years. Which is wise because development is not linear and multiple temporary issues can lead to a disappointing year.

The way I differ philosophically is that while I agree with being cautious in a negative sense (don't over react to bad form) I think scouts should be far less cautious in a positive sense. If players can show they can dominate their peers (to that level)I view that as a significant demonstration of upside that can lead to radical changes in rankings.

Maybe I am getting the balance wrong but I am curious how you have learnt to balance it.
time balances it, if within a month he is still dominating whether it be afl academy or private school ect, then you rise, if he has a few poor games then you keep them where they are or drop, up until the champs theres a lot of movement in rankings, after the champs, most of the draftees are in their right position and the only things to influence the rankings are finals or combine results pretty much, from what i have noticed.

an example of over reaction recently was Tom Scully, he averaged 7 goals a game for over a month in the sanfl u18s, but if you watched his games he was playing against guys 190cm as a 203cm forward and waiting for the long ball in the goal square, remember these are kids, so body contact is minor if any, everyone was saying put him in your top 10 and i tentatively put him late first round i think, even though i wasnt sure and saw him get dominated in the ruck the year before and so didnt think much of him, but its hard to go against the crowd totally, you can argue caution though and thats what i did, i even advised in the Hawks forum to a few people who were talking him up that he was unproven and not as good as people say, of course they argued back that 7 goals a game is insane, so i thought just wait and time will balance it out, which it did, he looked bog average at the champs and went late in the draft and has yet to do much of anything in his AFL career to date.

as for your philosophy i agree mostly, although i do think some players can drop off hard in their draft year, a small percentage can for whatever reason... i try not to over react either way, sometimes in the preseason i will have place holders for guys i have seen a small sample of and think they might be good, but then i realise i over rated them, or some i under rate, for me thats why the early season is so important i can see who i over or under rated.
 
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Updated top 50 - April


1. Finn O'Sullivan - Oakleigh (VC) - 181cm
2. Levi Ashcroft - Sandringham (Bris FS) - 179cm
3. Josh Smillie - Eastern - 194cm
4. Leonardo Lombard - GCS A - 178cm
5. Jagga Smith - Oakleigh - 181cm
6. Jobe Shanahan - Bendigo (NSW) - 192cm
7. Harry O'Farrell - Calder - 196cm
8. Jonty Faull - GWV - 194cm
9. Sid Draper - Sth Adel - 180cm
10. Josh Murphy - Murray - 190cm
11. Tyler Welsh - WWT (Adel FS)- 191cm
12. Tobie Travaglia - Bendigo - 187cm
13. Christian Moraes - Eastern - 182cm
14. Taj Hotton - Sandringham - 182cm
15. Phoenix Hargrave - Sth Adel - 182cm
16. Tom Gross - Oakleigh - 180cm
17. Xavier Lindsay - Gippsland - 182cm
18. Luke Trainor - Sandringham - 193cm
19. Noah Mraz - Dandenong - 198cm
20. Murphy Reid - Sandringham - 181cm
21. Ben Camporeale - Glenlg (Carl FS) - 184cm
22. Lucas Camporeale - Glenlg (Carl FS) - 182cm
23. Benny Barrett - Sth Adel (Port NGA)- 174cm
24. Isaac Kako - Calder (Ess NGA) - 175cm
25. Sam Marshall - Sandringham (Bris A) - 185cm
26. Nash King - Calder - 181cm
27. Nathaniel Sulzberger - Sandringham/Tas - 184cm
28. Patrick Retschko - Oakleigh - 186cm
29. Zak Johnson - Northern - 185cm
30. Joe Harrison - Syd A 179cm
31. Kayle Gerryn - West Perth - 198cm
32. Otis Harvey - Swan Dist - 182cm
33. Sam Lalor - GWV - 187cm
34. Lucas McInerney - Northern 180cm
35. Jack Whitlock - Murray 199cm
36. Joe Berry - Murray 180cm
37. Harvey Langford - Dandenong 190cm
38. Damon Hollow - Calder 180cm
39. Cooper Hynes - Dandenong 190cm
40. Jesse Dattoli - Northern 179cm
41. Lucca Grego - Western 184cm
42. Flynn Penry - GWV 201cm
43. Matt Whitlock - Murray 197cm
44. Kade Herbert - WWT 183cm
45. Archer Day-Wicks - Bendigo 185cm
46. Ned Atkinson - Sturt 180cm
47. Jacob Newton - Norwood 175cm
48. Louis Montgomery - Nth Adel (Port FS) 183cm
49. Malakai Champion - Subiaco 172cm
50. Austin Van Der Struyf - Claremont 178cm
I think Smillie will go #1
Moraes easily top 10
Langford could be a top 10 bolter.
 
I think Smillie will go #1
Moraes easily top 10
Langford could be a top 10 bolter.

you read my mind on Smillie i was contemplating putting him 1 tbh, he really does remind me of Patrick Cripps which is big praise and he has always been a star even when he was the best player for VM at the u16s, he looks great in midfield, last game Greeves played his role in midfield for a half and it really did look like 2 players pushing for pick 1 this year and next, Eastern are a must watch.
 
you read my mind on Smillie i was contemplating putting him 1 tbh, he really does remind me of Patrick Cripps which is big praise and he has always been a star even when he was the best player for VM at the u16s, he looks great in midfield, last game Greeves played his role in midfield for a half and it really did look like 2 players pushing for pick 1 this year and next, Eastern are a must watch.

The 1 criticism and its holding me back from putting him number 1 atm about Josh Smillie is his running game, most of his game compares to Patrick Cripps except his running game, Cripps can run out of a clearance or congestion, whereas Smillie looks for runners or finds room for his quality kicking, thats why i have him at 3 and until he shows improvement in that area or shows a style of football to work around that part of his game, it might hold him back a little.
 
The 1 criticism and its holding me back from putting him number 1 atm about Josh Smillie is his running game, most of his game compares to Patrick Cripps except his running game, Cripps can run out of a clearance or congestion, whereas Smillie looks for runners or finds room for his quality kicking, thats why i have him at 3 and until he shows improvement in that area or shows a style of football to work around that part of his game, it might hold him back a little.
Fair points but he’s 17 and still has a lot of body change to occur. The only way wce pass on a big bodied mid is if someone comes up with decent trade.
 
Fair points but he’s 17 and still has a lot of body change to occur. The only way wce pass on a big bodied mid is if someone comes up with decent trade.
I think there's a good chance west coast split the pick and go with a more outside leaning player with good pace and foot skills and a KPP.
Our clearance game is coming along but our ball usage after that I'd horrible
Assuming we finish last I think someone is really going to have to make themselves the clear number 1 for us to take that pick
And if you combine the split picks and the probable priority picks, we'll have the draft hand all the experts were whinging we shouldve sold the generation talent Reid's supposed to be last year for

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I think there's a good chance west coast split the pick and go with a more outside leaning player with good pace and foot skills and a KPP.
Our clearance game is coming along but our ball usage after that I'd horrible
Assuming we finish last I think someone is really going to have to make themselves the clear number 1 for us to take that pick
And if you combine the split picks and the probable priority picks, we'll have the draft hand all the experts were whinging we shouldve sold the generation talent Reid's supposed to be last year for

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Still think we’ll deal with Gold Coast so they can get a player before Lombard. 1 and F2 for 4,10,20 based on last year’s ladder position. Hopefully that would get Jagga, Lalor and Mraz. Plenty of water to go under the bridge though.
 
Still think we’ll deal with Gold Coast so they can get a player before Lombard. 1 and F2 for 4,10,20 based on last year’s ladder position. Hopefully that would get Jagga, Lalor and Mraz. Plenty of water to go under the bridge though.
That'd be a good haul

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