Toast Round 6 = Collingwood 123-81 Port Adelaide

[sam_e]

This particular chart is only about points for and points against. Not about ladder position.

They do this occasionally on "On the Couch".

Premiers are always in top 6 defense (lowest against) and above the horizontal line. And almost always top 6 offence (highest for).

We were smack in the window almost all of last season.

yep familiar with the chart

been doing the rounds on On the Couch for a few years and have always thought they could take it from a 2-dimensional pts for & pts against to something a little more sophisticated / nuanced

i could have played Nth Melb and won by 130 pts (keeping them to a v.low score) whilst losing a number of other games by small margin and i'd still be right in the window (top RH corner).

pts for & pts against is fine but it should /could be adjusted for the strength of your opposition as they were rated at the time or are rated now (ie. ladder position)

PS: thanks for posting & updating it

 

[Kes1984]

yep familiar with the chart

been doing the rounds on On the Couch for a few years and have always thought they could take it from a 2-dimensional pts for & pts against to something a little more sophisticated / nuanced

i could have played Nth Melb and won by 130 pts (keeping them to a v.low score) whilst losing a number of other games by small margin and i'd still be right in the window (top RH corner).

pts for & pts against is fine but it should /could be adjusted for the strength of your opposition as they were rated at the time or are rated now (ie. ladder position)

PS: thanks for posting & updating it

Yes that would be a better look at it, for sure! The way it is currently plotted does not seem to properly reflect where teams are actually sitting. I hate to say it but Carlton are looking the goods at the moment (shudders). GWS too. Yet neither are defensively there.

Brisbane have won one game but defensively look good on this. They are not even making finals at this rate.

So yeah, it's a bit of nonsense really. I started doing halfway through last season, out of curiosity, because on the couch didn't show it for several weeks.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

huge differential.

Billy "the glove" Frampton could have made a big difference in the first two rounds. Did Fly ever explain why he wasn't selected?

Obviously he was trying to give Charlie Dean a go, but was a poor decision to leave Frampton out and Charlie Dean had a baptism by fire really.

Quality of opposition would factor into it greatly, but that would ruin my hype train.

 

[FromTheBoundaryLine]

yep familiar with the chart

been doing the rounds on On the Couch for a few years and have always thought they could take it from a 2-dimensional pts for & pts against to something a little more sophisticated / nuanced

i could have played Nth Melb and won by 130 pts (keeping them to a v.low score) whilst losing a number of other games by small margin and i'd still be right in the window (top RH corner).

pts for & pts against is fine but it should /could be adjusted for the strength of your opposition as they were rated at the time or are rated now (ie. ladder position)

PS: thanks for posting & updating it

I do this with my own amateur analysis of teams in contention. You have to win minimum 3 games in a row to win the flag. So teams that win three in a row (4 if I want to be a hard marker or if you are outside top 4) are considered viable candidates. Then I have look at who they beat in those consecutive wins and when and rate them accordingly. Every game is treated as part of a finals series. So we lost 3 elimination finals to start the year to be outside the top 4 so since then we’ve now won an EF, SF, PF . Beat Essendon and we’ve notched our first GF for the year.

 

[sr36]

Not really accurate at all tbh. We clawed a couple back in the first, but Port were well on top until about halfway through the second. That’s when we really kicked in to gear and they had no answers.

I missed the first 20 minutes when we went 5 goals down and started watching late in the first - I thought we dominated the whole part that I saw. They did jag a couple of ripping goals early in the second but they were low percentrage and felt against the run of play to me.

 

[Kes1984]

3rd viewing of the replay after also watching it live at the ground. We weren’t bad really, even in the first quarter. Port were just so freaky getting their first 6 goals! Snapping and not missing.

 

[neilk]

I’m travelling at the moment and haven’t had a chance to watch the replay. How did Billy Frampton

17

Billy Frampton

Age

27

Ht

201cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.1

2star

K

5.1

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

3.1

3star

T

0.7

3star

MG

99.0

2star

D

8.5

2star

K

4.8

2star

HB

3.8

3star

M

3.5

3star

T

0.5

1star

MG

99.0

2star

D

9.2

3star

K

5.6

3star

HB

3.6

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

1.0

3star

MG

107.0

2star

go? His fantasy score wasn’t flattering, not that means that much.

 

[CheckerTrade666]

I’m travelling at the moment and haven’t had a chance to watch the replay. How did Billy Frampton go? His fantasy score wasn’t flattering, not that means that much.

Definitely his weakest game so far this year, but not terrible by any stretch. Just a relatively non eventful game for Premiership forward Billy.

 

[sr36]

I’m travelling at the moment and haven’t had a chance to watch the replay. How did Billy Frampton go? His fantasy score wasn’t flattering, not that means that much.

I missed the port start, but he didn't look like getting out marked in a pack. He couldn't go with his man on leads into the pocket a couple of times. But wasn't involved very much.

 

[Brad Goodman]

But not in Kicking ability.

That’s why I liken him more to Danger. Has the quick hack forward in his kitbag but not much else.

 

[gouki88]

That’s why I liken him more to Danger. Has the quick hack forward in his kitbag but not much else.

Yeah, to me this is a better comparison. I think fitness might be the key to JHF, because he just doesn't play too much for a midfielder at the moment

 

[Gilbert_Grape]

Yes that would be a better look at it, for sure! The way it is currently plotted does not seem to properly reflect where teams are actually sitting. I hate to say it but Carlton are looking the goods at the moment (shudders). GWS too. Yet neither are defensively there.

Brisbane have won one game but defensively look good on this. They are not even making finals at this rate.

So yeah, it's a bit of nonsense really. I started doing halfway through last season, out of curiosity, because on the couch didn't show it for several weeks.

Yep, a small sample against different opposition at this stage doesn't mean much.

If interested, Wheelo or Squiggle also consider strength of opposition when rating (eg a close loss against strong opposition can be rated higher than a close win against weak opposition)

Can be a bit opaque about how they rate (perhaps overrate "expected scores" - kicking a lot of points is rated highly) but arguably better than simple percentage.

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_ratings.html


Simulations (account for strength of opposition in games remaining and current ladder position)

AFL Simulation Results

www.wheeloratings.com

Squiggle 2024

live.squiggle.com.au

 

[TradeDraft]

Definitely his weakest game so far this year, but not terrible by any stretch. Just a relatively non eventful game for Premiership forward Billy.

Helps when his Teammates in the Backline play Good as well

 

[Big Bryza]

He's a fantastic player. But not many skinny guys shine when the pressure gets ramped right up. Still young.

He's 24 years old and Captain, no excuses. Butters and Rozee are both undersized inside mids and massively susceptible when the opposition dials the heat up, like we did from late in the 1st term on Saturday. They desperately need JHF to go to the next level asap. Wines is cooked and Drew is a plodder.

 

[Big Bryza]

Daicos x 2, McCreery, Mitchell, Mihocek & Schultz all missed easy ones from memory. Even if we go 50% better on those, it's a 10 goal win

That was a 70 point win every day of the week. All the more impressive considering we reeled in a 30 point deficit without raising a sweat.

A massive 2 games coming up!

 

[Big Bryza]

Big shout out to Mitchell with 10 tackles and a few times put his body on the line.

Still plenty left there for him.

One of the the better games he's played for us. Played his inside mid role perfectly. A high handball to kick ratio, with lots of tackles to go with it. That's what we want from Titch. Love him but you don't want him kicking the ball inside 50.

 

[Big Bryza]

Give credit to Korn.

He didn't jump off us despite our 0-3 start and pre game on Saturday still had question marks on the Power's ability to stand up in a big game. He wasn't wrong.

 

[loki04]

I missed the first 20 minutes when we went 5 goals down and started watching late in the first - I thought we dominated the whole part that I saw. They did jag a couple of ripping goals early in the second but they were low percentrage and felt against the run of play to me.

I havent watched a replay but I'd agree with Apex view that we didn't kick into gear properly until roughly half way through the 2nd Q.

We had a run in the last few minutes of the first to edge the score back prior to that was ports pressure game on top (which was ranked elite vs our above ave).

 

[loki04]

That was a 70 point win every day of the week. All the more impressive considering we reeled in a 30 point deficit without raising a sweat.

A massive 2 games coming up!

Had we kicked remotely accurate at goals (say 50% of the 21 points) it would of been a 90 point drubbing.

 

[Big Bryza]

I’m travelling at the moment and haven’t had a chance to watch the replay. How did Billy Frampton go? His fantasy score wasn’t flattering, not that means that much.

Outside of the first 20 mins when Port were kicking goals out of their backside, he and most the backs had not much to do. He repelled quite a few attacks. Love seeing him get a good run at it. Big game needed against 2MP tomorrow.

 

[Apex36]

I havent watched a replay but I'd agree with Apex view that we didn't kick into gear properly until roughly half way through the 2nd Q.

We had a run in the last few minutes of the first to edge the score back prior to that was ports pressure game on top (which was ranked elite vs our above ave).

WHE’s screamer in front of goals was the catalyst for me, when we really stepped up the pressure and our offensive run kicked in to gear. That was 13 mins in to the second term. Our goals in the first were very hard fought and against the flow of play.

 

[gouki88]

WHE’s screamer in front of goals was the catalyst for me, when we really stepped up the pressure and our offensive run kicked in to gear. That was 13 mins in to the second term. Our goals in the first were very hard fought and against the flow of play.

Agreed. Port were still in it early in the 2nd. Horne-Francis' goal was deflating to see, but Wilbur turned it

 

[sr36]

Agreed. Port were still in it early in the 2nd. Horne-Francis' goal was deflating to see, but Wilbur turned it

I started watching when the scoreboard was at it's worst. Between than and the WHE specky, I only saw Collingwood control - we had about 5 good chances to score but only took two of them - they had two lowish percentage chances, but took them both.

 

[gouki88]

I started watching when the scoreboard was at it's worst. Between than and the WHE specky, I only saw Collingwood control - we had about 5 good chances to score but only took two of them - they had two lowish percentage chances, but took them both.

I think we had control, but it seemed to be part of more of an ebb & flow. Turns out it was the beginning of the tidal wave. But I think Port nabbing those two iffy chances kept spirits up for them.

I found it more striking how completely not fired up Port got when they kicked a few on the trot towards the end