There's a balance in the middle between the OP's crazy post and your idea of there being no relevant info until round 13.6 rounds in and some clown asks “can Geelong go undefeated”.
Didn’t North win the first 10 a few years ago and just sneak into 8th?
It’s impossible to know who the contenders are until around rounds 13-15.
I am happy enough to include us in the 6 or 7 sides who "can" win it this season. As in it's not impossible. I like our mix and I just don't see stacks of incredibly strong sides. If we even got our act together last season we would've had a chance of a Carlton or GWS type run. Once Hawkins and Blicavs were injured against Freo and we blew that game, it was over though.
We'll have a better idea on whether top 4 is likely or not in about a month. Most sides with an 8-2 or better record go on to finish top 4.