2024 Ladder Predictions

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BigVic said:
W L D
1. Geelong 23 0 0 170.6%
2. Sydney 19 4 0 127.6%
3. GWS 18 5 0 122.9%
4. Carlton 15 8 0 107.6%
5. Fremantle 13 10 0 104.9%
6. Collingwood 12 10 1 100.6%
7. Brisbane Lions 12 11 0 99.9%
8. Essendon 11 11 1 93.5%
9. Melbourne 11 12 0 102.1%
10. Port Adelaide 11 12 0 98.7%
11. Adelaide 10 13 0 98.7%
12. Gold Coast 8 15 0 90.7%
13. Hawthorn 8 15 0 86.6%
14. West Coast 8 15 0 85.0%
15. Richmond 8 15 0 81.2%
16. St Kilda 7 16 0 90.6%
17. Western Bulldogs 6 17 0 89.7%
18. North Melbourne 6 17 0 78.5%

QF1: GEELONG v Carlton
QF2: SYDNEY v GWS
EF1: FREMANTLE v Essendon
EF2: COLLINGWOOD v Brisbane Lions

SF1: CARLTON v Fremantle
SF2: GWS v COLLINGWOOD

PF1: GEELONG v Collingwood
PF2: SYDNEY v Carlton

GF: GEELONG v Sydney
Click to expand...
Zero chance we go undefeated.

Not even sure we're the best team in it, let alone that much better than the competition.

Tipped Giants for the flag in the pre-season, and seen nothing to sway me thus far. They've got quality everywhere, and a gamestyle that stacks up.

But for the sake of argument, let's say you're right, and Geelong are the benchmark...we're still going to be resting players for when it matters.

Scott & Co have have learned their lesson from prior to 2022 in terms of squad management, and we'll be seeing a lot of that now that we've built the 7-0 cushion.

We'll have an off-day, someone will have a great day, players will be managed, and we'll come away from the season losing 4-6 games IMO.

Undefeated would have to be 100-1 at this point, as it should be.
 

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Kobe Gryant said:
Zero chance we go undefeated.

Not even sure we're the best team in it, let alone that much better than the competition.

Tipped Giants for the flag in the pre-season, and seen nothing to sway me thus far. They've got quality everywhere, and a gamestyle that stacks up.

But for the sake of argument, let's say you're right, and Geelong are the benchmark...we're still going to be resting players for when it matters.

Scott & Co have have learned their lesson from prior to 2022 in terms of squad management, and we'll be seeing a lot of that now that we've built the 7-0 cushion.

We'll have an off-day, someone will have a great day, players will be managed, and we'll come away from the season losing 4-6 games IMO.

Undefeated would have to be 100-1 at this point, as it should be.
Click to expand...
Geelong doing much better than expected so far.

Agree Giants are the pick of the teams come September.

Also wouldn't discount the Swans if they can sort out some at times shaky form in Melbourne, and even Port Adelaide on their day, great midfield, good defence, decent enough forward line.

Carlton are pretty good across the ground, on a dry spring day those big forwards are dangerous.

I'm off Brisbane and the Pies, somethings gone wrong there this off-season and they've been overtaken. Melbourne's forward line isn't good enough and their midfield isn't damaging enough to cover that.

The flags coming from those first 5 teams mentioned I reckon.
 
Cuzz09 said:
Feeling very 2022 isn't it folks



On SM-S908E using BigFooty.com mobile apapp
Click to expand...
I reckon over the last 10 years, in most seasons, there has been a period where Geelong have been in an absolute purple patch during the home and away season, and then things haven gone right in September. In most of those seasons, they have looked legitimate the team to beat and perhaps peaked to early in the early-mid stages of the season and then failed to kick on.

In 2022, they did actually play to their best in September, so if anything I would say this season has the look of many others, and the question will be will they again peak too early in the first 15 rounds and then when it really matters they aren't at their best and other teams are, or will they be able to drop off for a bit, have a bit of a dip and then come home flying during August - Grand Final day.

It's hard to say but I will say Geelong are almost always a very good to elite home and away team under Chris Scott, but haven't always been a great finals team under him relative to their season form.
 
juss said:
I reckon over the last 10 years, in most seasons, there has been a period where Geelong have been in an absolute purple patch during the home and away season, and then things haven gone right in September. In most of those seasons, they have looked legitimate the team to beat and perhaps peaked to early in the early-mid stages of the season and then failed to kick on.

In 2022, they did actually play to their best in September, so if anything I would say this season has the look of many others, and the question will be will they again peak too early in the first 15 rounds and then when it really matters they aren't at their best and other teams are, or will they be able to drop off for a bit, have a bit of a dip and then come home flying during August - Grand Final day.

It's hard to say but I will say Geelong are almost always a very good to elite home and away team under Chris Scott, but haven't always been a great finals team under him relative to their season form.
Click to expand...
Many seasons we absolutely hammered Selwood and Dangerfield into the ground to land a top 4 spot and they were either jaded come finals time or simply didn't have the necessary help in midfield. You need a deep midfield to win finals, especially in those swarming and frenetic conditions. The 2019 year with Kelly was an exception but there were other deficiencies in that 2019 prelim line up.

Also, teams with poor forward lines tend to get exposed moreso in finals than home and away. So despite being high scorers during the home and away, the elite defences and high pressure games we faced meant scoring dried up in finals. Bombing it in long without thought doesn't work with inadequate smalls and the lack of a second elite KPF. This was rectified by 2022 when we had both a potent group of forwards and the run-and-carry players to get it in there quickly.

The stodgy collection of players didn't always help. The Cats were often the hunted rather than the hunters on the pressure and speed scale. The make up of the team is just different now. Midfield is weaker and we aren't carried by dominant stars in there (Dangerfield sometimes does but then he breaks), but have more speed, pressure and better decision makers - with multiple weapons up forward. I just think that team make up suits finals more, but the midfield issue is still the red flag.
 
Mr Meow said:
Many seasons we absolutely hammered Selwood and Dangerfield into the ground to land a top 4 spot and they were either jaded come finals time or simply didn't have the necessary help in midfield. You need a deep midfield to win finals, especially in those swarming and frenetic conditions. The 2019 year with Kelly was an exception but there were other deficiencies in that 2019 prelim line up.

Also, teams with poor forward lines tend to get exposed moreso in finals than home and away. So despite being high scorers during the home and away, the elite defences and high pressure games we faced meant scoring dried up in finals. Bombing it in long without thought doesn't work with inadequate smalls and the lack of a second elite KPF. This was rectified by 2022 when we had both a potent group of forwards and the run-and-carry players to get it in there quickly.

The stodgy collection of players didn't always help. The Cats were often the hunted rather than the hunters on the pressure and speed scale. The make up of the team is just different now. Midfield is weaker and we aren't carried by dominant stars in there (Dangerfield sometimes does but then he breaks), but have more speed, pressure and better decision makers - with multiple weapons up forward. I just think that team make up suits finals more, but the midfield issue is still the red flag.
Click to expand...
Could possibly be true, obviously too early in the season to tell.

For me the Cats season will still hinge on its evergreen experienced group, the Hawkins, Cameron, Stewart types. As much as the depth and role players have improved, I think you need those guys performing to be a chance in finals, and then hope that unlike (some) other years the next tier can step up this year whereas other times maybe they couldn't.
 
juss said:
Could possibly be true, obviously too early in the season to tell.

For me the Cats season will still hinge on its evergreen experienced group, the Hawkins, Cameron, Stewart types. As much as the depth and role players have improved, I think you need those guys performing to be a chance in finals, and then hope that unlike (some) other years the next tier can step up this year whereas other times maybe they couldn't.
Click to expand...
That's interesting. Hawkins, Blicavs, Stanley and Tuohy (until his cameo yesterday) have been non factors so far this season in my eyes. Rohan and Bews are in the VFL, although the former is due for a recall. Guthrie has only just entered the team. Dangerfield has missed half of the season. Cameron, Stewart and Duncan are the ones who have been our veteran jets, and we have still got the job done without Stewart against good opposition for the past 1.5 games.

2022 was much more of a "veteran reliance" year. Guthrie was our B&F. Dangerfield injured less, with Selwood and Smith playing great footy. Tuohy had his last elite season and Rohan was as important as O.Henry is now. Bews remained our essential lock down player. Hawkins was dominant and AA; as was Blicavs.

It just really takes people a while to shift perceptions and realise that now it's Holmes, Stengle, Miers, Zuthrie, O.Henry, J.Henry and Bruhn who are important players. Kolo is ol' reliable as he himself approaches his veteran years. Dempsey is getting there in replacing Smith. SDK will be a strong defender in a couple of seasons.
 
Mr Meow said:
That's interesting. Hawkins, Blicavs, Stanley and Tuohy (until his cameo yesterday) have been non factors so far this season in my eyes. Rohan and Bews are in the VFL, although the former is due for a recall. Guthrie has only just entered the team. Dangerfield has missed half of the season. Cameron, Stewart and Duncan are the ones who have been our veteran jets, and we have still got the job done without Stewart against good opposition for the past 1.5 games.

2022 was much more of a "veteran reliance" year. Guthrie was our B&F. Dangerfield injured less, with Selwood and Smith playing great footy. Tuohy had his last elite season and Rohan was as important as O.Henry is now. Bews remained our essential lock down player. Hawkins was dominant and AA; as was Blicavs.

It just really takes people a while to shift perceptions and realise that now it's Holmes, Stengle, Miers, Zuthrie, O.Henry, J.Henry and Bruhn who are important players. Kolo is ol' reliable as he himself approaches his veteran years. Dempsey is getting there in replacing Smith. SDK will be a strong defender in a couple of seasons.
Click to expand...
It's funny isn't it? I don't blame people for taking a while to realise the change though.

The reality is perceptions are shaped by the media for the average footy fan.

We're all so focused on our own sides, that the majority are just going to spout what they hear from external sources.

To your points though, I maintain that we're actually a better chance at a flag over the next 1-4 years than we are right now.

As you say, it's Stengle, Miers, Zuthrie, Henry, Holmes, Bruhn, JHenry, & Bowes who have become the prime movers this year, while Cameron & Stewart have kept their elite status.

Dempsey has been terrific, SDK up and down but certainly closer to good than bad, and Neale, O'Sullivan, Clark, & Conway have all shown great promise when they've played.

We're not the finished product, but with some acquisitions over the coming years and some more shrewd drafting, I'd say it's pretty clear that the club is aiming to have that group peaking in 3 or 4 years together.

The youngsters will be in their prime by then, and guys like Miers, Stengle, JHenry, Zuthrie, & Bowes will be in their late twenties.

It'll look like more of a 'traditional' list demographic that's vying for the flag.

Even our supposed trade targets in Perkins, Smith, & LDU fit that trajectory, and it's all since Hocking came back and implored the club to invest a bit more in quality youth.

As for the now though, we're giving ourselves a chance, and that's all you can ask for as a supporter.
 
BigVic said:
W L D
1. Geelong 23 0 0 170.6%
2. Sydney 19 4 0 127.6%
3. GWS 18 5 0 122.9%
4. Carlton 15 8 0 107.6%
5. Fremantle 13 10 0 104.9%
6. Collingwood 12 10 1 100.6%
7. Brisbane Lions 12 11 0 99.9%
8. Essendon 11 11 1 93.5%
9. Melbourne 11 12 0 102.1%
10. Port Adelaide 11 12 0 98.7%
11. Adelaide 10 13 0 98.7%
12. Gold Coast 8 15 0 90.7%
13. Hawthorn 8 15 0 86.6%
14. West Coast 8 15 0 85.0%
15. Richmond 8 15 0 81.2%
16. St Kilda 7 16 0 90.6%
17. Western Bulldogs 6 17 0 89.7%
18. North Melbourne 6 17 0 78.5%

QF1: GEELONG v Carlton
QF2: SYDNEY v GWS
EF1: FREMANTLE v Essendon
EF2: COLLINGWOOD v Brisbane Lions

SF1: CARLTON v Fremantle
SF2: GWS v COLLINGWOOD

PF1: GEELONG v Collingwood
PF2: SYDNEY v Carlton

GF: GEELONG v Sydney
Click to expand...

Melbourne missing the 8 is wild to me. At 5-2 now, they’re not winning just 6 of their remaining 16 unless something drastic happens.
 

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Sydney
GWS
Geelong
 Carlton
Melbourne
Essendon
Port Adelaide
Collingwood

Gold Coast
Bulldogs
Fremantle
St Kilda
Adelaide
Brisbane
West Coast
Richmond
Hawthorn
North Melbourne
 
BigVic said:
W L D
1. Geelong 23 0 0 170.6%
2. Sydney 19 4 0 127.6%
3. GWS 18 5 0 122.9%
4. Carlton 15 8 0 107.6%
5. Fremantle 13 10 0 104.9%
6. Collingwood 12 10 1 100.6%
7. Brisbane Lions 12 11 0 99.9%
8. Essendon 11 11 1 93.5%
9. Melbourne 11 12 0 102.1%
10. Port Adelaide 11 12 0 98.7%
11. Adelaide 10 13 0 98.7%
12. Gold Coast 8 15 0 90.7%
13. Hawthorn 8 15 0 86.6%
14. West Coast 8 15 0 85.0%
15. Richmond 8 15 0 81.2%
16. St Kilda 7 16 0 90.6%
17. Western Bulldogs 6 17 0 89.7%
18. North Melbourne 6 17 0 78.5%

QF1: GEELONG v Carlton
QF2: SYDNEY v GWS
EF1: FREMANTLE v Essendon
EF2: COLLINGWOOD v Brisbane Lions

SF1: CARLTON v Fremantle
SF2: GWS v COLLINGWOOD

PF1: GEELONG v Collingwood
PF2: SYDNEY v Carlton

GF: GEELONG v Sydney
Click to expand...
Last week you had Melbourne second, now we're missing the eight entirely.
Look forward to seeing us winning the spoon in a few days time!
 
BigVic said:
W L D
1. Geelong 23 0 0 170.6%
2. Sydney 19 4 0 127.6%
3. GWS 18 5 0 122.9%
4. Carlton 15 8 0 107.6%
5. Fremantle 13 10 0 104.9%
6. Collingwood 12 10 1 100.6%
7. Brisbane Lions 12 11 0 99.9%
8. Essendon 11 11 1 93.5%
9. Melbourne 11 12 0 102.1%
10. Port Adelaide 11 12 0 98.7%
11. Adelaide 10 13 0 98.7%
12. Gold Coast 8 15 0 90.7%
13. Hawthorn 8 15 0 86.6%
14. West Coast 8 15 0 85.0%
15. Richmond 8 15 0 81.2%
16. St Kilda 7 16 0 90.6%
17. Western Bulldogs 6 17 0 89.7%
18. North Melbourne 6 17 0 78.5%

QF1: GEELONG v Carlton
QF2: SYDNEY v GWS
EF1: FREMANTLE v Essendon
EF2: COLLINGWOOD v Brisbane Lions

SF1: CARLTON v Fremantle
SF2: GWS v COLLINGWOOD

PF1: GEELONG v Collingwood
PF2: SYDNEY v Carlton

GF: GEELONG v Sydney
Click to expand...

Melbourne & Port miss the 8 currently being 5-2 and 120 odd %?

I remember my first beer.
 
BigVic said:
What a fall from grace for Brisbane. From being 4 points off a flag to 14th.
Click to expand...

it's not a unsurprising fall at all when you think about it. its just the natural process.

Brisbane have been up there for 5-6 odd years now.

They just had their window and didn't win it. Now they slide off as all team's bar Geelong do.

Brisbane's #1 at not playing rookies and are one of the oldest teams in the comp. So they will fall and fall hard. I reckon there will be a good exodus at the end of the year.
 
juss said:
I reckon over the last 10 years, in most seasons, there has been a period where Geelong have been in an absolute purple patch during the home and away season, and then things haven gone right in September. In most of those seasons, they have looked legitimate the team to beat and perhaps peaked to early in the early-mid stages of the season and then failed to kick on.

In 2022, they did actually play to their best in September, so if anything I would say this season has the look of many others, and the question will be will they again peak too early in the first 15 rounds and then when it really matters they aren't at their best and other teams are, or will they be able to drop off for a bit, have a bit of a dip and then come home flying during August - Grand Final day.

It's hard to say but I will say Geelong are almost always a very good to elite home and away team under Chris Scott, but haven't always been a great finals team under him relative to their season form.
Click to expand...

I’m with you, feels like a 08,10 and 2012-2021 season. Odds are that it will be.

I don’t think most Cats supporters agree they are the favourite either.
 
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