AFL 2024 - AFL ROUND 9

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[balmainforever]

nearly forgot to do this
will set it up properly tomorrow

 

[pacemaker]

It's late and I'm tired but If my eyes aren't deceiving me the last 16 games between Carlton v Melbourne 14/16 have gone u40.

Of those 16 games Melbourne have won 12 of them.

Carlton have a team that heavy relies on 2 forwards to score goals and another 2 to chip in thats pretty much it. With May and Leaver the best 2 key tall defender combination going around I think it's difficult to see Blues winning. I get Weitering is great for the Blues but who does he take? Hybrid forward Fritsch? I'd back in Fritsch to win has he is more versatile. Or Fringe key tall in Petty who Weitering would dominate.

Melbourne 1-39 best bet for the week for me

 

[Jugada]

Swans -5.5 stands out as the bet for me at the moment

Dockers wins so far this year have come against teams that are currently 11th, 12th, 13th, 17th and 18th.

Swans have knocked off the current 3rd, 4th and 5th amongst others.

 

[taurus]

It's late and I'm tired but If my eyes aren't deceiving me the last 16 games between Carlton v Melbourne 14/16 have gone u40.

Of those 16 games Melbourne have won 12 of them.

Carlton have a team that heavy relies on 2 forwards to score goals and another 2 to chip in thats pretty much it. With May and Leaver the best 2 key tall defender combination going around I think it's difficult to see Blues winning. I get Weitering is great for the Blues but who does he take? Hybrid forward Fritsch? I'd back in Fritsch to win has he is more versatile. Or Fringe key tall in Petty who Weitering would dominate.

Melbourne 1-39 best bet for the week for me

In addition to your points, Carlton is slow. Demons are the best in transition from attack to defence IMO.

I think the books are generous at the moment.

 

[Atavistic]

I'm waiting for Pacemaker to drop 20 units on Freo v Sydney unders.

 

[X_box_X]

Books too scared to put odds up for Sicily AGS. Bet365 the only ones.

I've taken the $3.50 on offer but even better value is $34 for 2+!!

Cash out available for full refund if it seems unlikely he will remain forward. But it's obvious in the short term either Hardwick or Sicily will play fwd and this will be based on a case by case basis.

$34 for 2+ goals is potentially incredible value and definitely worth the risk for a small stake. I mean, if he does play fwd, what's the point in taking the $3.50 for AGS and not $34 for 2+?

 

[dontlimitme]

no ******* way sicily is going forward from the start of the game he's been a rock for them down back, plus he'll probably be out with the injury imo was running on adrenaline for the rest of the game surely

 

[pacemaker]

Melbourne 1-39
Geelong 1-39
GWS 1-39
Stkilda 1-39
Adelaide 1-39

$54 @ WATAB

Melbourne
Geelong
GWS
Adelaide

$6.82 @ WATAB

 

[dontlimitme]

luko kicked 10 goals in 2 games for goldcoast in darwin last year

 

[dontlimitme]

also im sorry PB bros they opened him at 15/67 for 2/3 and trying to get 20$ each way got reviewed/declined then immediately into 5/15, word of advice, the SGM trick may or may not work around the review process , may have got 40 @ 97 (BOOSTED) trick then another 44 @ 67 for 3 and 40 @ 15 for 2

PUT HIM FORWARD DIMMA!

 

[bulletride]

also im sorry PB bros they opened him at 15/67 for 2/3 and trying to get 20$ each way got reviewed/declined then immediately into 5/15, word of advice, the SGM trick may or may not work around the review process , may have got 40 @ 97 (BOOSTED) trick then another 44 @ 67 for 3 and 40 @ 15 for 2

PUT HIM FORWARD DIMMA!

Thankfully he was just s**t enough playing forward last night to keep his odds juicy too.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Dom To Shoot ready to fire 3rd game back? Had 43 against Pies last year, though it was his 200th. Yeo out so should get more midfield minutes.

25 @ 4.75 365
30 @ 13 365
35 @ 26 TAB
40 @ 100 TAB

 

[mouncey2franklin]

also im sorry PB bros they opened him at 15/67 for 2/3 and trying to get 20$ each way got reviewed/declined then immediately into 5/15, word of advice, the SGM trick may or may not work around the review process , may have got 40 @ 97 (BOOSTED) trick then another 44 @ 67 for 3 and 40 @ 15 for 2

Even if he doesn't play forward, those are crazy odds against north at carrara.

Well done.

 

[NYRB]

Daisys Heart Over Head for Freo v Swans. Thought those odds stood out a bit on initial inspection:



Home coming for Chad Warner

1

Chad Warner

Age

22

Ht

185cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.0

2star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

2star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

2star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

2star

CL

0.0

1star

D

7.0

2star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

4star

CL

0.0

1star

who has a good record of snagging a goal at the Optus. (5 goals from 4 games there) I didnt see Sydney play their whole game last week but Sydney being away from home can see them being a bit more cagey than usual on Prime Time football.

Id imagine Rampe 20+ Disposals is the risky leg there. Id imagine Swans play a tagger possibly on Serong, which may free up someone like Young. I had this as a Freo game at the beginning of the season , but can see Swans and those legs coming through.

 

[NYRB]

Above SGM bet at Sportsbet for Freo v Sydney is paying $9.50. Paying $7.50 at TAB. At those price, definitely a no play for me. But if you can get 15 or better, something to think of before the big game on Friday.

If you wanted to play a tad safer swap Rampe for 15+ with the 20+ and you would get odds around $6.72. Relatively big jump in odds for those extra 5 disposals or so.

 

[pacemaker]

Do you guys update what 1u, 10u and 20u ect throughout the year given win / loss ratios?

All I ask is what 20u was for me at the start of the season would be different now as I've nailed 2 big multis that have brought in $1900.

Does this now mean my 20u (which should be 20% of my betting bank role) changes due to the gains I've made?
Or do you keep 1u and same amount all year despite the wins/loss of your betting bankroll?

Asking for a friend

 

[pacemaker]

Fremantle v Sydney

Either Less Than 15.5 Tri Bet 15.5
Either Less Than 19.5 1st Half Tri Bet 19.5
Under 160.5 Alternate Totals
Nat Fyfe To Get 20+ Disposals
Hayden Young

26

Hayden Young

Age

23

Ht

189cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.0

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

3.2

3star

T

1.4

3star

MG

160.0

3star

D

10.0

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.4

2star

M

3.2

3star

T

1.4

2star

MG

160.0

3star

D

10.0

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.4

4star

MG

160.0

3star

To Get 20+ Disposals
Chad Warner

1

Chad Warner

Age

22

Ht

185cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.0

2star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

2star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

2star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

2star

CL

0.0

1star

D

7.0

2star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

4star

CL

0.0

1star

To Get 20+ Disposals
Will Hayward

9

Will Hayward

Age

25

Ht

186cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.6

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

3.4

3star

T

2.8

4star

G

1.1

4star

D

9.0

2star

K

4.3

2star

HB

4.7

3star

M

2.7

3star

T

2.7

4star

G

0.7

4star

D

9.4

3star

K

6.2

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

3.4

5star

G

1.4

5star

Anytime Goalscorer
Michael Frederick Anytime Goalscorer

$24.11 PB

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Do you guys update what 1u, 10u and 20u ect throughout the year given win / loss ratios?

All I ask is what 20u was for me at the start of the season would be different now as I've nailed 2 big multis that have brought in $1900.

Does this now mean my 20u (which should be 20% of my betting bank role) changes due to the gains I've made?
Or do you keep 1u and same amount all year despite the wins/loss of your betting bankroll?

Asking for a friend

Just keep a tab on what your bankroll is and multiply it by .2 before each bet, so you're always betting [20% in this case].

20U is kinda too high for a max bet though, unless you had some insane edge that no one else had.

 

[Bucking Bronco]

7.5U - Brisbane +6.5
2.5U - GWS -7.5

[Edit: Increase GWS by 1.25U to 3.75U]
[Edit 2: Add another 1.25U on GWS at -8.5 (SB), for 5U total]

 

[Fizza]

With Collingwood's forward like containing multiple absences, Milo chek, McCreery, Schultz. And having eagles at home this week, will be keeping an eye on their forward line. Will be interesting to see odds as week progresses

 

[sohohoho]

All I ask is what 20u was for me at the start of the season would be different now as I've nailed 2 big multis that have brought in $1900.

Does this now mean my 20u (which should be 20% of my betting bank role) changes due to the gains I've made?
Or do you keep 1u and same amount all year despite the wins/loss of your betting bankroll?

Asking for a friend

whatever you're happy with really, how many bets would it take to burn through your bankroll?
I would stick to daily/weekly recalcs probably when starting out.

You should eventually phase out these 20% bets though, its fine to be aggressive when your betting bank is low but the likelihood any bet you find is worth this big of an edge is slim.

 

[ferrisb]

whatever you're happy with really, how many bets would it take to burn through your bankroll?
I would stick to daily/weekly recalcs probably when starting out.

You should eventually phase out these 20% bets though, its fine to be aggressive when your betting bank is low but the likelihood any bet you find is worth this big of an edge is slim.

If it ain't worth betting 20% of your bankroll, it ain't worth betting!!!

 

[taurus]

7.5U - Brisbane +6.5
2.5U - GWS -7.5

I'm unsure of GWS this week. I've been tipping them all this season but leaning against them.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

With Collingwood's forward like containing multiple absences, Milo chek, McCreery, Schultz. And having eagles at home this week, will be keeping an eye on their forward line. Will be interesting to see odds as week progresses

Howe or Frampton to move forward? Waterman also out so don’t need many talls down back.