2022 Giro d'Italia

[eth-dog]

Two and a half weeks away from the first Grand tour of the year, thought it might be time to move all the speculation into one thread now with most startlists starting to come together. Starting in Budapest, the first three stages are in Hungary with a flat stage, a 9 km ITT and then another flat stage before they board a plane on Monday to go back to Italy, with stages 4-9 having a mix of flat, hilly and mountainous stages, so a bit for everyone.

General Classification favourites: Simon Yates, Richard Carapaz, Joao Almeida, Hugh Carthy, Mikel Landa, Jai Hindley, Miguel Angel Lopez
Best Young Rider favourites: Joao Almeida, Thomas Pidcock
Top Sprinters: Rick Zabel, Elia Viviani, Caleb Ewan, Mark Cavendish

For me Yates is probably the one to beat, who's form is more consistent. However he's also the one that will always be a protected rider of this group, whereas Carapaz, Almeida, Carthy, Hindley and (very rarely) Lopez will have to protect others.

Almeida will win white if he finishes. A little disappointed we won't see Mader here as well but they elected to attack the tour instead.

The sprint finishes should e interesting with Ewan's downturn in form, he's probably the quickest of the four but Cav, Viviani and Zabel all have a turn of speed as well.

 

[yaco55]

Despite Ewan winning two stages in the Tour of Turkey he was slower than Groves and Philipsen - It was his positioning that got him the two stage wins - Anyway he should get his top end speed back by the Giro.

 

[eth-dog]

Official odds are out:

Carapaz $1.83
Almeida $6.50
Yates $6.50
Landa $7.50
Lopez $11
Buchmann, Bardet $13
Dumoulin $15
Kelderman $17
Carthy, Hindley, Bilbao, Porte, Geoghan Hart $23

Nobody else worth mentioning really. I think Carapaz is getting way over valued at that, Yates and Almeida are in as good, if not better form than him. However there are only 4 others who've won a grand tour in the race in Geoghan Hart winning probably the weakest GT of the past 20 years, Dumoulin being constantly injured over the past 2 years, Nibali being cooked and Yates, who will be his main challenger.

My final GC prediction at this stage:

1. Yates
2. Carapaz
3. Almeida
4. Lopez
5. Hindley
6. Dumoulin
7. Carthy
8. Bardet
9. Porte
10. Kelderman

I don't think the bookies have realised that Hindley's been the protected rider for Bora this year for the most part.

 

[Orange Agent]

Those odds are ridiculous.

 

[eth-dog]

Disappointingly Viviani has pulled out for the sprinters but Cees Bol, Fernando Gaviria and Arnaud Demare look like they're racing so you have 6 of the stronger sprinters racing here. I am curious to see how many pull out on the second rest day with only 3 flat stages from day 7 to 21. Depends which ones, apart from Ewan, are going to the tour as well, which will have a bumper sprinter crop.

 

[eth-dog]

SBS team is out:

Keenan, Renshaw, Bridie, Mackenzie (much to Vader's delight ), Gerrans, Bates and Mallet

Looks like Mackenzie will mostly be doing the interviews, Bates and Mallet for the studio and probably a rotation of Gerrans, Renshaw and Bridie to assist Keenan in the call

 

[yaco55]

And the best commentator McEwan is calling the race in Europe for GCN.

 

[Vader]

SBS team is out:

Keenan, Renshaw, Bridie, Mackenzie (much to Vader's delight ), Gerrans, Bates and Mallet

Looks like Mackenzie will mostly be doing the interviews, Bates and Mallet for the studio and probably a rotation of Gerrans, Renshaw and Bridie to assist Keenan in the call

I'm more than happy with any combination of Keenan/Gerrans/Bridie. I haven't heard enough of Renshaw to have an opinion. I'll just zap past any interviews Mackenzie does, and mute the sound whenever they throw to the studio.

Any chance they're doing a "clean" stream on Cycling Central or SBS on Demand, as they previously did with the TdF? By that, I mean a continuous feed from the commentary booth, without the ads and studio segments?

I'm sad to lose Robbie, but Gerro is a more than adequate replacement. Losing Tomo is a positive, albeit his replacement (Mallet) being equally awful - so this change is a net zero game.

 

[eth-dog]

I'm more than happy with any combination of Keenan/Gerrans/Bridie. I haven't heard enough of Renshaw to have an opinion. I'll just zap past any interviews Mackenzie does, and mute the sound whenever they throw to the studio.

Any chance they're doing a "clean" stream on Cycling Central or SBS on Demand, as they previously did with the TdF? By that, I mean a continuous feed from the commentary booth, without the ads and studio segments?

I'm sad to lose Robbie, but Gerro is a more than adequate replacement. Losing Tomo is a positive, albeit his replacement (Mallet) being equally awful - so this change is a net zero game.

Find out tonight I guess

 

[eth-dog]

SBS on Demand starts at 8:10 tonight for those who want to watch early

 

[Orange Agent]

Agree on Mallet, not sure what they are thinking here. Just switched over to SBS from GCN, Robbie's pink ensemble is woeful.

 

[eth-dog]

Keeno, Gerrans and Bridie on commentary

 

[eth-dog]

That crowd is amazing. I love this

 

[Orange Agent]

Going with Yates, Almeida, Bardet podium.

MVDP to win tonight and the TT on stage 2.

 

[eth-dog]

Going with Yates, Almeida, Bardet podium.

MVDP to win tonight and the TT on stage 2.

Would love that podium. * Carapaz. Bardet's complete lack of TT ability counts against him.

I think Lopez is a smoky for 3rd (if 5th favourite counts as 3rd)

 

[Orange Agent]

Would love that podium. fu** Carapaz. Bardet's complete lack of TT ability counts against him.

I think Lopez is a smoky for 3rd (if 5th favourite counts as 3rd)

I reckon the Ineos squad isn't that great and Porte won't really work for him. But even isolated he is hard to drop, his problem is he over-races and wastes energy.

 

[eth-dog]

Vader SBS on Demand is showing it all without ads

 

[eth-dog]

So a 4 second gap for Kelderman and Carapaz ahead of Almeida, Yates and the rest of the favourites. Makes it interesting.

 

[Vader]

Vader SBS on Demand is showing it all without ads

Thanks for that. I ended up watching it on a 20 min delay, recording the TV broadcast and watching it in "chase play" mode, which worked out well for me.

The ads don't bother me so much - I just zap straight past them in the recording, and voila, a 20 min delay becomes a 17 minute delay. It's the mind numbing stupdity when they throw to the Z-team in the studio that really annoys me, as we lose the commentary team for ~20 minutes every time this happens (i.e. from one ad break to the next). Fortunately, they didn't do the studio thing last night - and the broadcast was infinitely better for its absence.

As for the race itself... I like the new EF Education uniforms, redesigned to reduce visual conflict with the maglia rosa. The poo brown outfits being worn by Alpecin... not so much.

I felt sorry for Caleb last night. I didn't expect him to be with the leaders anywhere near the top of the hill - but he was, right until the last bend. It's a pity they cut to the "behind the finish line" camera angle just before he went down, so we never saw what caused him to crash. It would have been nice to see him in pink, even if it was only ever going to be for one day.

 

[drd23]

It's a pity they cut to the "behind the finish line" camera angle just before he went down, so we never saw what caused him to crash

Clipped Girmay's wheel (video should start with the overhead view of them sprinting)

 

[Orange Agent]

I think Lotto's desperation for WT points has half caused the crash, the other half is Ewan's poor skills in riding on a wheel which why he finds himself in bad positions a lot. He shouldn't have been trying for this stage but the teams points standing means he has to get as many as he can and is now likely injured for the stages he should be winning.

 

[Vader]

What's with the black mark/growth on the starting official's index fingernail?

 

[eth-dog]

What's with the black mark/growth on the starting official's index fingernail?

Blood blister probably

 

[Orange Agent]

Yates is flying, Bardet seems to have good form too. After a puncher/sprint stage and a short TT to have nearly 30 seconds on a couple of his bigger challengers is a pretty good place to be. If he wins on Etna it will be a big statement to the rest.

 

[eth-dog]

Flat stage tonight, could be Caleb's chance at winning.

Yates surely favourite now?