2025 Federal Election: A Pox o' Both Your Houses

[Gavin Excell]

A lot of our Spuds early election policy relied on Aussie MAGA being a positive rather that a dark shadow on his entire campaign.

Yes the tariffs and DOGE mess have exploded in front of them
Now they are drastically trying to move away from Trump support

 

[Gough]

Yes the tariffs and DOGE mess have exploded in front of them
Now they are drastically trying to move away from Trump support

Difficult to believe they thought aping Trump would be a winner.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Yes, I'm sure the ALP are actually nominating somebody and probably already have, but there's no social media advertising, there's no local signs or ads and no campaign at all as far as I can tell and yesterday I drove through a quarter of the electorate and saw plenty for Lib/Teal and a bit of Green.

I hesitate to read too much into the signage. I live in Jagajaga, which has been safe Labor since it's been established. I've seen a few driving around but don't think I've seen a single sign in my immediate neighbourhood.

I spend a fair bit of the school holiday period in Corangamite and it was Stephanie Asher (Lib) everywhere last time, including those massive billboards, flatbed trucks, lots of signs on farm paddocks that sort of thing. A much more overtly modest campaign from the incumbent Libby Coker with a few signs here and there and the result was a comfortable Labor win. It's the same thing this time with the Lib candidate, Darcy Dunstan. Will it work this time? Guess we'll see.

 

[Gavin Excell]

It was interesting to hear Hume try and justify the about face which was essentially blaming Labor for a scare campaign that the forced back into office would also apply to the private sector which she categorically refused.

"In no way was this policy ever intended to be imposed on the private sector"

Which is telling isn't it

 

[Gavin Excell]

Difficult to believe they thought aping Trump would be a winner.

Perhaps 3 or 4 months ago but it sounds like they are not taking good advice about what the population are thinking

 

[nut]

Why?

Because she's not a RWNJ like Dutton?

The Teals are gaining so much momentum nationally for a reason. Plenty of people are gravitating to candidates with a mix of ALP (Social) and LNP (Economic) policy. This stance is a reflection of most of the teal candidates tbh.

This is traditionally the moderate arm of the LNP and the Neoliberal arm of the ALP.

Her main problem at the moment is exactly who is in charge.

The LNP would be a far more dangerous proposition if they had a strong moderate candidate imo (not suggesting her, just in general). A more relatable or likeable version of Turnbull.


ALP lose most of their ammunition in that scenario.

What does she stand for?

 

[peetoo]

So you’re comparing a transport project — which has no clean, scalable alternative — to a nuclear rollout that would compete with cheaper, faster, safer renewables already doing the job?

You’ve just reinforced the point: the SRL exists because there’s no real alternative. With nuclear, there is — and it’s already working. That’s why the comparison is nonsense.

Also I think SRL is expected to take more than the 4% workload of transport we get quoted that nuclear will take up from the energy mic

 

[Sphynx]

Waft does she stand for?

I asked you the question, as you were the one so adamant she stood for nothing?


She's always struck me as a classic LNP moderate in the Bishop mold.

She's an ex banker/superfund exec, shes a conservative and pro market in terms of economic policy, but aligns fairly closely with plenty of ALP members on social policy. She seems fairly reasoned and considerate outside of campaign periods.


I don't pay attention to messaging during campaigns. She can't say what she wants, she has to align with HQ's message and she is under strict control of the primary running. Who is so far right at the moment, he may as well be in One Nation... They are at opposite ends of the spectrum outside of some economic policy.

It's one of the LNP's main issues, the absolute gulf between factions in their own party, with the surge of the Greens, the ALP doesn't really have that issue anymore.

If she wasn't forced to drill far right messaging as much as she is (mainly because she's a female, Gough post was pretty much true), she'd probably relate so much more to some of the block the LNP is continually leaking to the Teals. Particularly as she is Victorian.

She would have been a totally different proposition had she been running in a Turnbull campaign imo.

She's had the unfortunate timing of having to tow the far right conservative messaging of Scomo and Dutton within her own party.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

It was interesting to hear Hume try and justify the about face which was essentially blaming Labor for a scare campaign that the forced back into office would also apply to the private sector which she categorically refused.

"In no way was this policy ever intended to be imposed on the private sector"

Which is telling isn't it

Yes, because just making it the norm in the public sector will of course enable the private sector to reduce/remove flexible work options off their own bat, because they'd no longer have to try to compete with public service jobs to be an employer of choice. And it's playing us for mugs to pretend they didn't know that was exactly what would happen.

But of course, I have little doubt there's some very juicy Dutton quotes from a few weeks ago pulling his Temu Trump/DOGE routine that Labor will gleefully seize on now that he's completely backflipped.

 

[peetoo]

Jane Hume is the most inept opposition cabinet member that I can remember. (except for a lot of the bible thumpers, but I always knew why they were there).

I can't for the life of me think of what ability/qualities Jane Hume has which would make me want to vote for her party, but they keep fronting her up for press.

I honestly think Michaelia Cash will end up the next Liberal leader.

Now that’s a challenging personality makeover needed

 

[nut]

I asked you the question, as you were the one so adamant she stood for nothing?


She's always struck me as a classic LNP moderate in the Bishop mold.

She's an ex banker/superfund exec, shes a conservative and pro market in terms of economic policy, but aligns fairly closely with plenty of ALP members on social policy. She seems fairly reasoned and considerate outside of campaign periods.


I don't pay attention to messaging during campaigns. She can't say what she wants, she has to align with HQ's message and she is under strict control of the primary running. Who is so far right at the moment, he may as well be in One Nation... They are at opposite ends of the spectrum outside of some economic policy.

It's one of the LNP's main issues, the absolute gulf between factions in their own party, with the surge of the Greens, the ALP doesn't really have that issue anymore.

If she wasn't forced to drill far right messaging as much as she is (mainly because she's a female, Gough post was pretty much true), she'd probably relate so much more to some of the block the LNP is continually leaking to the Teals. Particularly as she is Victorian.

She would have been a totally different proposition had she been running in a Turnbull campaign imo.

She's had the unfortunate timing of having to tow the far right conservative messaging of Scomo and Dutton within her own party.

My answer is she stands for nothing !!! That’s my answer. That fact you say she would stand for something else if she had a different leader proves my point.

 

[Gethelred]

I don't mind her.

In isolation, she's a contrast to the far right wing social conservative everywhere in the LNP these days.

There's virtually no moderates left in the party, she's one of the very few.

What's your main issue with her?

If the far right get hammered in an election again, it will be a pivot back to the moderates as the next strategy, you would have to think.

Why?

All the messaging out of the Coalition and co (IPA, the wealthy who prop them up) post 2020 election was that they lost not because of their lack of policies or because they were too right wing, but because their messaging had failed to cut through. The right looks at an election in the way a marketer looks at demographics; it is about performing before the right crowd in the right way, getting the right message out to the right people, performing strength at all times.

Doesn't moderation from here ruin that performance of strength, the thing that gets them elected in the first place?

 

[Sphynx]

My answer is she stands for nothing !!! That’s my answer. That fact you say she would stand for something else if she had a different leader proves my point.

Err, right.

Welcome to the reality of Australian politics mate. It's how it works.


You are right though, she'd probably be better served as a Teal vs being in this Dutton Government.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Way to ruin the surprise!

It still doesn't ring a bell so I'm doubly sure they're not running anything at all.

She ran in neighbouring Menzies last time and almost took it. I stand to be corrected but if she's running, just on the 2022 result, I'd suggest they're in it to win it.

 

[nut]

Err, right.

Welcome to the reality of Australian politics mate. It's how it works.


You are right though, she'd probably be better served as a Teal vs being in this Dutton Government.

And then she could stand for something… hence my point.

 

[Gethelred]

Why?

Because she's not a RWNJ like Dutton?

Dutton's problem isn't that he's perceived as a wannabe dictator, it's that he makes looking like a wannabe dictator look extremely uncool and weird, creepy. You need to have that performance down - a performance of masculinity and leadership by right wing standards - to a finely honed edge, and you need to have it on at all times; moderation is seen as weakness. Dutton's problem is that he's unmarketable through that lense; he looks, sounds and acts, frankly, like the very notion of a corrupt secret policeman.

I don't want to overly repeat myself, but this is absolutely a problem for her when it comes to her side of politics, for whom the performance of power is important. On the right, a performance of strength at all times governs their behaviour: look at the greatest Australian example of this in Tony Abbott. Never compromise, always oppose, always attack; never admit fault, never back down, never back away.

It's the distillation of their politics down to its most performative form, and yes lacking this absolutely would hurt her in QLD and in the places where her feminity would also be held against her.

The Teals are gaining so much momentum nationally for a reason. Plenty of people are gravitating to candidates with a mix of ALP (Social) and LNP (Economic) policy. This stance is a reflection of most of the teal candidates tbh.

This is traditionally the moderate arm of the LNP and the Neoliberal arm of the ALP.

I kind of agree with this, but think you're looking at this being a movement back to the middle when it is in fact a sign of an irreconcilable split in the right in Australia.

The moderates have tired of being ignored, and this split is their way of performing strength. To return would be to lose that performance, make them weak in the eyes of the public and their party. They ain't doing that.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Err, right.

Welcome to the reality of Australian politics mate. It's how it works.


You are right though, she'd probably be better served as a Teal vs being in this Dutton Government.

I don't really know much about her positions, but it would explain a lot to me as whenever I've seen her being interviewed, she's struck me as someone who didn't know or didn't believe what she was saying.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

The PM Knifing Era was entertaining but terrible for Australia. From June 2010 to August 2018 (a period of 8 years and 2 months), we had 5 changes of prime minister, and only 1 of them was through a general election.

Since August 2018, we have had 1 change of prime minister, and it was through a general election. Albo becomes the second PM to serve a full term since Howard. All things being equal, it looks like he will continue in office after May.

It was such a shitshow. And what was most galling was the media egging it on. They couldn't get enough of it, and actively engaged in prolonging it. First Labor and then the Coalition.

Every day was like an episode of some stupid reality TV show. Who Will Make It Through To Round Four???

"TALK ABOUT WHO MIGHT BE BEST AT RUNNING THE COUNTRY" I was screaming at the TV and the paper. (Not often I scream at a newspaper.)

 

[Golden_6]

Yeah it certainly appears as though they're expanding that strategy after the success they had with it in 2022 and it's understandable in some of those seats that they never win anyway and aren't factoring as part of their path to forming government.

Seems a little extreme for a seat that they almost won last time to me, but Violi's probably got the runs on the board now where it won't be as close as 2022 (without knowing anything about the Teal running out there).

Violi actually appears to be a solid member. I know a few that have had interactions with him personally and he seems like a reasonable guy that works hard for the Casey seat.

I won’t vote for him because he’s a Lib and I don’t like their overall policies but I certainly have no problems with him as a individual and what he stands for.

 

[Sphynx]

I don't want to overly repeat myself, but this is absolutely a problem for her when it comes to her side of politics, for whom the performance of power is important. On the right, a performance of strength at all times governs their behaviour: look at the greatest Australian example of this in Tony Abbott. Never compromise, always oppose, always attack; never admit fault, never back down, never back away.

It's the distillation of their politics down to its most performative form, and yes lacking this absolutely would hurt her in QLD and in the places where her femininty would also be held against her.


I kind of agree with this, but think you're looking at this being a movement back to the middle when it is in fact a sign of an irreconcilable split in the right in Australia.

The moderates have tired of being ignored, and this split is their way of performing strength. To return would be to lose that performance, make them weak in the eyes of the public and their party. They ain't doing that.

They have to.

The voting age demographic is moving in the opposite direction year on year to their traditional voting block.

Their economic policy will always mean they maintain the boomer vote. The fringe far right might be lost to ON, but the others will simply vote LNP because they think it's still Dutton/Morrison.

The same as the centrist ALP block might vote ALP because they think it's still Dutton/Morrison.

They haven't had a moderate leader in 7 years. Hows that trending for them? Freydenburg was the future of their moderate arm, which was completely gutted at the last election. Even he is not ideal in what I think they need, the Kooyong elitist, even if moderate, is not going to change the narrative.


The smartest possible move would actually be building around their moderate faction and kill off their far right conservative arm like the moderate arm was killed off under the last election.

They would cut through the centrist ALP vote, they could even do a deal with the teals, particularly the Victorian ones, which are in reality more aligned with a moderate LNP than they are Albenese's Govt really.

A Moderate LNP with the right leader with teal preferences would be a far more interesting political proposition, even if it meant their far right moving to One Nation etc.

Are ON and UAP going to give preferences to the ALP and Greens? Of course they wont. They will still get them, even if they do move further left.

I think a genuine moderate/neoliberal LNP would be an absolute nightmare for the ALP based on where the primary vote has moved since 2018 and the last time they even remotely represented this.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Dutton's problem isn't that he's perceived as a wannabe dictator, it's that he makes looking like a wannabe dictator look extremely uncool and weird, creepy. You need to have that performance down - a performance of masculinity and leadership by right wing standards - to a finely honed edge, and you need to have it on at all times; moderation is seen as weakness. Dutton's problem is that he's unmarketable through that lense; he looks, sounds and acts, frankly, like the very notion of a corrupt secret policeman.

I don't want to overly repeat myself, but this is absolutely a problem for her when it comes to her side of politics, for whom the performance of power is important. On the right, a performance of strength at all times governs their behaviour: look at the greatest Australian example of this in Tony Abbott. Never compromise, always oppose, always attack; never admit fault, never back down, never back away.

It's the distillation of their politics down to its most performative form, and yes lacking this absolutely would hurt her in QLD and in the places where her femininty would also be held against her.


I kind of agree with this, but think you're looking at this being a movement back to the middle when it is in fact a sign of an irreconcilable split in the right in Australia.

The moderates have tired of being ignored, and this split is their way of performing strength. To return would be to lose that performance, make them weak in the eyes of the public and their party. They ain't doing that.

I've always found Dutton downright sinister.

 

[peetoo]

I reckon the libs are too far gone.

The mystery is why so many voters don’t see this

 

[Saint]

Violi actually appears to be a solid member. I know a few that have had interactions with him personally and he seems like a reasonable guy that works hard for the Casey seat.

I won’t vote for him because he’s a Lib and I don’t like their overall policies but I certainly have no problems with him as a individual and what he stands for.

I agree. Any personal interactions he's always a nice fella. Reminds me of Darren Chester. Nice enough person, but has achieved nothing in many years of politics because he doesn't align with the conservative positions of the LNP.

I don't think Violi has achieved a lot/anything for Casey. He made a lot of local promises but probably knew he'd never have to see any of them through.

He gave me a "the LNP believes in a 2-state solution" when asked about genocide. He did not appreciate or like any tough questions about non-local things. Has 20-year backbencher written all over him.

 

[Kyptastic]

Shadow Minister for Government Efficiency Jacinta Price has been notably silent.

Don't you mean 'The Amazing Jacinta Price'

 

[Carringbush2010]

Dutton has ditched his plan to ban work-from-home. That was fast.

Would never have got through anyway.

Unless an executive order was signed. lol.

Funny, all campaigners talk about their policies, but not how to implement them or how they'll get them to realization of a passing bill.