2025 Federal Election: A Pox o'....Just one of your houses, apparently.

[nut]

Yes agree

It's hard to believe that after having ages to consider an election strategy that they flip flopping a few weeks out

They thought it would be popular… that’s the only reason

 

[nut]

The PM Knifing Era was entertaining but terrible for Australia. From June 2010 to August 2018 (a period of 8 years and 2 months), we had 5 changes of prime minister, and only 1 of them was through a general election.

Since August 2018, we have had 1 change of prime minister, and it was through a general election. Albo becomes the second PM to serve a full term since Howard. All things being equal, it looks like he will continue in office after May.

I think the seat of Dickson will decide

 

[Gough]

They thought it would be popular… that’s the only reason

A lot of our Spuds early election policy relied on Aussie MAGA being a positive rather that a dark shadow on his entire campaign.

 

[peetoo]

Yep. He is already counting the eggs about to hatch.

He will head to election night confident. But in reality I think he will fall short.

My prediction is of the 150 seats on the line....

Labor: 76 seats. Just enough seats for a majority government.

Liberals: 60 seats.

Greens: 4 seats.

Teal independent: 8 seats

Bob Katter party: 1 seat

Trumpet of patriots: 1 seat.

Essentially similar to the 2022 election but 2 of those teal independent seats will be switched to coalition.

Really? Teals? The trend is for more votes to leave the majors each election.
And the liberal campaign in teal seats is an insult to voters there, who are on the more intelligent side.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

A lot of our Spuds early election policy relied on Aussie MAGA being a positive rather that a dark shadow on his entire campaign.

Breathtaking misstep from Dutton.

As we’ve tragically seen, MAGA in the US is a cohort of election-deciding magnitude.

Their Aussie equivalent is a fraction of that.

They are extremely aggressive and noisy, but it’s a fundamental error to mistake all that aggression and noise for actual numbers.

Despite the extraordinary ineptness we’ve seen from the Coalition in recent years, I’m truly surprised they were that dumb.

 

[Saint]

A lot of our Spuds early election policy relied on Aussie MAGA being a positive rather that a dark shadow on his entire campaign.

The strategists who looked at the US election and said "let's say what they said", didn't consider that once Trump came to power and did all the stuff they said that it would become such a predictable disaster.

So now Dutton is trying desperately to distance himself, but the strategy of being subtly intertwined through hints and nods and winks is a lot harder to undo. Half the Lib voters still believe in the populist isolationist nonsense.

 

[Saint]

Really? Teals? The trend is for more votes to leave the majors each election.
And the liberal campaign in teal seats is an insult to voters there, who are on the more intelligent side.

Yes, I think the overall trend will be that the majors will have fewer seats in total. I think the Libs will pick up some ALP seats, but both will also lose a couple to Teals.

I think the Libs will end up with about the same number, but the ALP will lose 5 or 6 and those will be a net gain for the teals.

The ALP aren't even running a campaign in Casey as far as I can tell.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

The PM Knifing Era was entertaining but terrible for Australia. From June 2010 to August 2018 (a period of 8 years and 2 months), we had 5 changes of prime minister, and only 1 of them was through a general election.

Since August 2018, we have had 1 change of prime minister, and it was through a general election. Albo becomes the second PM to serve a full term since Howard. All things being equal, it looks like he will continue in office after May.

The way I like to compare it is it was looking like our eldest daughter was going to have lived through six prime ministers before turning six, heading into 2019. I was in my late 20s when the sixth PM of my life came along and didn't see my fourth until I was well into my 20s.

 

[Sphynx]

Yep. He is already counting the eggs about to hatch.

He will head to election night confident. But in reality I think he will fall short.

My prediction is of the 150 seats on the line....

Labor: 76 seats. Just enough seats for a majority government.

Liberals: 60 seats.

Greens: 4 seats.

Teal independent: 8 seats

Bob Katter party: 1 seat

Trumpet of patriots: 1 seat.

Essentially similar to the 2022 election but 2 of those teal independent seats will be switched to coalition.

Polls have One Nation as high as 9% of the primary vote and higher than all the Teals/Independents combined.

That is higher comparatively than the support the Greens had 10-15 or so years ago.

Whilst this might not necessarily translate to seats (like what occurs with the Greens), it will mean decent representation in the Senate. There could be up to 4 ON senators based on that vote.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

They thought it would be popular… that’s the only reason

I mean, since I knew it would be a disaster and a free hit for Labor, who are they talking to, before releasing these? I'm sure there will be some quotes from hard-arse Dutton when he first announced this that Labor can dig up and will be gold for their attack ads.

People here are spot on: to me Dutton pretty clearly thought Temu Trump was a winning strategy and now he's scrambling. Another wasted day on the campaign where this and a dumped Liberal candidate will dominate. Time's ticking.

 

[Saint]

Polls have One Nation as high as 9% of the primary vote and higher than all the Teals/Independents combined.

That is higher comparatively than the support the Greens had 10-15 or so years ago.

Whilst this might not necessarily translate to seats (like what occurs with the Greens), it will mean decent representation in the Senate. There could be up to 4 ON senators based on that vote.

Is that mostly coming from UAP? And how is it focused across the states? Sounds like Malcolm Roberts might win a seat in Qld, but the rest of the states they'll still be pushing it up hill.

The 6th Senate seat in Victoria will be interesting. Last time it was Babet off some anti-vax wave. Wouldn't be surprised to see Legalise Cannabis get a bump, they keep getting bumps in the Vic state elections. But maybe it'll be where the UAP/ON voters land again.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

The ALP aren't even running a campaign in Casey as far as I can tell.

That's surprising, considering the Libs primary (with a new/youngish candidate) took a hammering there last election, it took a few days for the result to be confirmed and for some time, it looked in danger of falling, one of many astonishing results on the night.

I guess with a new candidate in the outer-suburban Lib heartland that's perhaps the biggest danger he'll be in and if Violi's been a solid local member, he should be returned comfortably in a seat they've held for the past 40 years and all but four of the 55 years it's been in existence.

 

[The Punter]

Is that mostly coming from UAP? And how is it focused across the states? Sounds like Malcolm Roberts might win a seat in Qld, but the rest of the states they'll still be pushing it up hill.

The 6th Senate seat in Victoria will be interesting. Last time it was Babet off some anti-vax wave. Wouldn't be surprised to see Legalise Cannabis get a bump, they keep getting bumps in the Vic state elections. But maybe it'll be where the UAP/ON voters land again.

I don't think the ALP vote will produce enough surplus to get a Green and another left of centre candidate elected in Victoria. The question will be if the LNP's vote will be enough to get it to 3 or whether it will coalesce around a right wing minor party like it did with the UAP in 2022.

But it'll almost certainly be a left-right 3-3 split, with the left to be ALP 2 GRN 1 and the right to be LNP 3 or LNP 2 someone else 1.

 

[The Punter]

That's surprising, considering the Libs primary (with a new/youngish candidate) took a hammering there last election, it took a few days for the result to be confirmed and for some time, it looked in danger of falling, one of many astonishing results on the night.

I guess with a new candidate in the outer-suburban Lib heartland that's perhaps the biggest danger he'll be in and if Violi's been a solid local member, he should be returned comfortably in a seat they've held for the past 40 years and all but four of the 55 years it's been in existence.

Also, there's a teal and the ALP know how to run dead.

 

[Blue1980]

A lot of our Spuds early election policy relied on Aussie MAGA being a positive rather that a dark shadow on his entire campaign.

I want Dutton to double down on the madness, announce minimum 10% tariffs on every country we trade with.

 

[Saint]

Also, there's a teal and the ALP know how to run dead.

Yes, I'm sure the ALP are actually nominating somebody and probably already have, but there's no social media advertising, there's no local signs or ads and no campaign at all as far as I can tell and yesterday I drove through a quarter of the electorate and saw plenty for Lib/Teal and a bit of Green.

 

[The Punter]

Th

Yes, I'm sure the ALP are actually nominating somebody and probably already have, but there's no social media advertising, there's no local signs or ads and no campaign at all as far as I can tell and yesterday I drove through a quarter of the electorate and saw plenty for Lib/Teal and a bit of Green.

The ALP candidate for Casey is Naomi Oakley.

 

[Gough]

I want Dutton to double down on the madness, announce minimum 10% tariffs on every country we trade with.

Shadow Minister for Government Efficiency Jacinta Price has been notably silent.

 

[Saint]

Jane Hume is the most inept opposition cabinet member that I can remember. (except for a lot of the bible thumpers, but I always knew why they were there).

I can't for the life of me think of what ability/qualities Jane Hume has which would make me want to vote for her party, but they keep fronting her up for press.

I honestly think Michaelia Cash will end up the next Liberal leader.

 

[Saint]

Th


The ALP candidate for Casey is Naomi Oakley.

Way to ruin the surprise!

It still doesn't ring a bell so I'm doubly sure they're not running anything at all.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Also, there's a teal and the ALP know how to run dead.

Yeah it certainly appears as though they're expanding that strategy after the success they had with it in 2022 and it's understandable in some of those seats that they never win anyway and aren't factoring as part of their path to forming government.

Seems a little extreme for a seat that they almost won last time to me, but Violi's probably got the runs on the board now where it won't be as close as 2022 (without knowing anything about the Teal running out there).

 

[Sphynx]

Jane Hume is the most inept opposition cabinet member that I can remember. (except for a lot of the bible thumpers, but I always knew why they were there).

I can't for the life of me think of what ability/qualities Jane Hume has which would make me want to vote for her party, but they keep fronting her up for press.

I honestly think Michaelia Cash will end up the next Liberal leader.

I don't mind her.

In isolation, she's a contrast to the far right wing social conservative everywhere in the LNP these days.

There's virtually no moderates left in the party, she's one of the very few.

What's your main issue with her?

If the far right get hammered in an election again, it will be a pivot back to the moderates as the next strategy, you would have to think.

 

[nut]

I don't mind her.

In isolation, she's a contrast to the far right wing social conservative everywhere in the LNP these days.

There's virtually no moderates left in the party, she's one of the very few.

What's your main issue with her?

If the far right get hammered in an election again, it will be a pivot back to the moderates as the next strategy, you would have to think.

She stands for nothing

 

[Sphynx]

She stands for nothing

Why?

Because she's not a RWNJ like Dutton?

The Teals are gaining so much momentum nationally for a reason. Plenty of people are gravitating to candidates with a mix of ALP (Social) and LNP (Economic) policy. This stance is a reflection of most of the teal candidates tbh.

This is traditionally the moderate arm of the LNP and the Neoliberal arm of the ALP.

Her main problem at the moment is exactly who is in charge.

The LNP would be a far more dangerous proposition if they had a strong moderate candidate imo (not suggesting her, just in general). A more relatable or likeable version of Turnbull.


ALP lose most of their ammunition in that scenario.

 

[Gough]

She stands for nothing

In another reality Dutton would call her a dei hire.