Prediction When will the rebuild officially commence?

[Heckler]

The Round 1 team selection shows Chis Scott is hoping for another shot at the Premiership Cup in 2022
The squad is full of Past-it Imports, Not Up to AFL Standard Strugglers and Honest Battlers
Sure there is a core of Aging and Rising Stars but only 2 Kittens
Clearly Chris believes last year's finals series were an aberration... as were the past few fails.

During the off season break I reported that Scott and Hocking were at odds about the contract extensions.
That Chris was stubborn and set in his ways... While Hocking wanting some change and a performance based contract.
Whatever the reason ... the Official Rebuild has been delayed..
The question is When will the Cat's rebuild officially commence?

My prediction is any shock upset defeats will be waived away
The cracks will show after the Rd 11 Bulldogs game
The Rd 17 game v the Demons will close the door on a flag
But Chris will battle on... with his favorites
The Kittens will have to wait until 2023

 

[cats_09]

Don't think the rebuild ever stopped and has been a continual process over the past decade

If people are expecting a Carlton like tanking, extended time at the bottom of the ladder type rebuild, then they may be disappointed as that looks the total opposite of what the club is trying to do as they rebuild & transition

 

[catempire]

2012 and every year thereafter according to most.

 

[BotsMaster]

Today.

 

[Down at K Park]

When the big names like selwood, hawkins, danger etc retire, or we slip during the season.

Problem is by the time we get to about round 18 we are usually cooked cause the team is full of old blokes, so we hit the finals sputtering. Going to need some serious man management.

 

[catempire]

Today.

bump

 

[Sttew]

The Round 1 team selection shows Chis Scott is hoping for another shot at the Premiership Cup in 2022
The squad is full of Past-it Imports, Not Up to AFL Standard Strugglers and Honest Battlers
Sure there is a core of Aging and Rising Stars but only 2 Kittens
Clearly Chris believes last year's finals series were an aberration... as were the past few fails.

During the off season break I reported that Scott and Hocking were at odds about the contract extensions.
That Chris was stubborn and set in his ways... While Hocking wanting some change and a performance based contract.
Whatever the reason ... the Official Rebuild has been delayed..
The question is When will the Cat's rebuild officially commence?

My prediction is any shock upset defeats will be waived away
The cracks will show after the Rd 11 Bulldogs game
The Rd 17 game v the Demons will close the door on a flag
But Chris will battle on... with his favorites
The Kittens will have to wait until 2023

Timely post

 

[Drunkcat]

It has started we don't need a full one, SDK holmes Stengle Evans Close

 

[Partridge]

2012 and every year thereafter according to most.

Every club is rebuilding to some degree every year. Whether they like to admit it or not.

 

[catempire]

Every club is rebuilding to some degree every year. Whether they like to admit it or not.

Absolutely correct.

 

[Footy Smarts]

The Round 1 team selection shows Chis Scott is hoping for another shot at the Premiership Cup in 2022

Wouldn't a more honest title be "when will Geelong stop trying to win the flag?"

 

[Turbocat]

The terminology can be bit misleading. In the presser CSC said the side has been rebuilt ( or words to that affect) bar three players from 2011. In his mind it been happening and will continue to. Id say when we are totally devoid of premiership players, when Hawk and Selwood no longer are key parts to the side and we are obviously spectator finalists then a stronger bias will have to be given towards youth.

As it stands, the old players are still mainly our best players and they are core. While we win like we did against Ess, hold a spot in the top4 , then a "rebuild" will be more an evolutionary thing. More refresh than rebuild. One room at a time rather than a whole house. Soon we will have 14 players on our list in their 30's so at stage we will move from evolution to revolution and at that time we will see if the players that we have are ready to be the main core at a high level of performance. I have concerns but that is a different discussion.

As it stands.. no one, not even the most ardent anti CS's could demand invasive list change playing like Geelong did V Ess. One week is not a season, and lets see where we when we next start delisting and recruiting players. Two or three more Stengle types and it changes age profile quite a bit.

 

[Warhorse]

2 years. Rebuild officially starts when both Dahlhause and Higgins are no longer on our list

 

[Vdubs]

When the big names like selwood, hawkins, danger etc retire, or we slip during the season.

Problem is by the time we get to about round 18 we are usually cooked cause the team is full of old blokes, so we hit the finals sputtering. Going to need some serious man management.

Agreed.
If I had any say in player management, and we are all keyboard experts here, i would get tell our captain that he is simply NOT TRAVELLING INTERSTATE at all this season, maybe for a final if we make it.
Danger also needs periodic, strategic games off- essentially he is a better player than Dusty in home and away, but he seems cooked by finals. Dusty seems to save his big efforts for finals, and looks as if he can coast during the season.
Hawkins seems to be a freak, and doesn't look like needing management, but certainly it would not hurt.'
But Selwood and Danger are the key 2 players for our MF potency, nothing more evident than that yesterday.
And we still have Duncan and Menegola to return, and that player Simpson.
A lot to look forward to.
Cameron is pivotal, but very fragile, so games from him seem to be the bonus.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

The Round 1 team selection shows Chis Scott is hoping for another shot at the Premiership Cup in 2022
The squad is full of Past-it Imports, Not Up to AFL Standard Strugglers and Honest Battlers
Sure there is a core of Aging and Rising Stars but only 2 Kittens
Clearly Chris believes last year's finals series were an aberration... as were the past few fails.

During the off season break I reported that Scott and Hocking were at odds about the contract extensions.
That Chris was stubborn and set in his ways... While Hocking wanting some change and a performance based contract.
Whatever the reason ... the Official Rebuild has been delayed..
The question is When will the Cat's rebuild officially commence?

My prediction is any shock upset defeats will be waived away
The cracks will show after the Rd 11 Bulldogs game
The Rd 17 game v the Demons will close the door on a flag
But Chris will battle on... with his favorites
The Kittens will have to wait until 2023

I think you need to be more specific with this. Our backline outside of Blitz isn't changing a great deal over the next few years, having been rebuilt ground up from 2016-2019. Our forward line has been rebuilt from 2018-2020, Hawkins out for Sav, and Rohan out for probably Evans or an extra mid rotation so not much change there.

The change is the midfield. So the question you need to ask is "when will the cats replace the 4-5 30+ year old kids we have. The answer is that first moves on this were made with Stephens and Holmes and they've gone full bore drafting mids and a ruck in 2021.

 

[Biggy_Boy]

when will the cats replace the 4-5 30+ year old

We have ave 12 30+ year olds on the list and 8 played yesterday. Duncan and Menegola coming back in and likely so will Rohan. That is about half the team needing to be replaced in a short period of time. Then there are those like Dahl who are close to finished anyway.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

We have ave 12 30+ year olds on the list and 8 played yesterday. Duncan and Menegola coming back in and likely so will Rohan. That is about half the team needing to be replaced in a short period of time. Then there are those like Dahl who are close to finished anyway.

A lot of those guys are not retiring tomorrow, and a lot of them aren't linchpin of our success.

Don't get me wrong I don't expect a seamless transfer or anything. I expect we'll look real bad for a few years. But guys like Higgins, Rohan, and Dahlhaus are replaceable.

Structurally the question is how do we replace the midfield as a unit, not turnover the whole list.

 

[Heckler]

Nothing like a change from a Defensive to Attacking Game Plan to add new life.

I think you need to be more specific with this. Our backline outside of Blitz isn't changing a great deal over the next few years, having been rebuilt ground up from 2016-2019. Our forward line has been rebuilt from 2018-2020, Hawkins out for Sav, and Rohan out for probably Evans or an extra mid rotation so not much change there.

The change is the midfield. So the question you need to ask is "when will the cats replace the 4-5 30+ year old kids we have. The answer is that first moves on this were made with Stephens and Holmes and they've gone full bore drafting mids and a ruck in 2021.

I'm not referring to the slow turnover of players which is always ongoing.
A Rebuilding Phase is when the premiership window closes in the short term
The focus changes from the older players to the development of a younger squad
The fringe players are replaced with younger players with more potential
Young players are played to gain experience rather than trying to win every game.
Early draft picks become a priority.... rather than older free agents.

 

[Down at K Park]

Nothing like a change from a Defensive to Attacking Game Plan to add new life.

I'm not referring to the slow turnover of players which is always ongoing.
A Rebuilding Phase is when the premiership window closes in the short term
The focus changes from the older players to the development of a younger squad
The fringe players are replaced with younger players with more potential
Young players are played to gain experience rather than trying to win every game.
Early draft picks become a priority.... rather than older free agents.

That switch has already been made. We have gone to the draft and bought in a lot more development coaches this season.

 

[Lana]

The simplest way of describing teams in the context of a rebuild are a continuum of Young-Old and Good-Bad

Regardless of age, a team that is good won't rebuild, as it it is harder to find a good player than it is to find a young one. All a good team achieves by rebuilding is to make it bad.

If you are already bad then it makes sense to move from an old team to a young team. It is the only choice you have.

In the context of an individual player you can make a blanket assumption, as long as the club deems them to be AFL standard they won't retire. A club won't delist a player unless their perceived output drops below that of a replacement player(Best 2nd tier players draftable) or the money spent to keep them on the list could be used to bring in a better player. After a player's peak, every year an older player through wear and tear moves closer and closer to that replacement level, the less their leaving affect the club.

Looking only at personnel, a good team has to bring in less to maintain the same standard then a bad team has to get there in the first place.

If you looked at most teams order ordered the players in a list of above replacement level, about half the team would be just above it or even just below it for kids and mid tier players who aren't 100% fit. For us last night it would be (in no particular order) Kolodjashnij, De Koning, Holmes, Higgins, Ratugolea, Z.Guthrie, Dahlhaus, Atkins and Close. Swap any of these guys out for the next few players of their type (we might not even have one on our list) in and you wouldn't notice much difference.

The next group would be players who have a weapon (pace, long kick, strength at the contest) with some exploitable flaw or have a consistency issue (loss of power/fitness/speed due to wear/tear, mentally weak, lack of constancy, lack of depth in kicking etc) but overall are at an ability that can't be immediately replaced. For us it would be Henry, Blicavs, Tuohy, Smith, Parfitt, Stanley, Selwood and Stengle

As good players age they move incrementally into these lower two categories, in effect it spreads out the loss in output as they approach retirement.

The next group two group can be hard to differentiate, players move between them based on form and fitness

Your A graders who are consistently play at a high level with negligible flaws, like Guthrie

The last group is your superstars whose dominance sets the tone of the match: Dangerfield, Hawkins, Cameron and Stewart.

IMO from a personnel POV a match is determined by

1) How many of your A grade players are playing at the superstar level, a few dominant players can drag an overall worse team over the line
2) How many more players you have above this replacement level compared to the opposition, in effect do you more players contributing positively then the opposition

Back to the voluntary rebuild, since the removal of the priority pick, it doesn't work without AFL assistance (An early inside 1st round free agency compensation pick, both WB and Melbourne have received one on the way to a premiership, if GC get there it will because of this too). There is no reward for making yourself worse, young kids don't develop just because you gift them early games. We've burnt a decade of early picks doing so. Even in a good team that can protect them, in a poor team they get get physically dominated, so many young Carlton players with strapped knees and shoulders.

No team should willingly part with a superstar or an A grader, the breakeven is something like a top 4 pick for even non-superstar A graders. Which only clubs that are already rebuilding have and therefore won't trade. Melbourne and WB benefited last year when they traded with clubs who got their valuations completely wrong. It is near impossible to induce a club to over pay, We didn't get enough for Kelly and we didn't overpay for Cameron(even though it would be have mint if we got him as a free agent)

All you have then is the above replacement but not A graders, either young players on the rise, so you want to hold on to them, or older players who have negligible trade value, North fleeced us and got pick 30 (closer to 35 after all of the bids), At best you've gained an expected value of like 30 games (averaged over the players you draft its f'all) above replacement and made your team immediately worse. Which is why we're been doing the opposite. In a good team you already have plenty of competition for spots another kid amongst the bunch adds little.

In the same way if you can get a free agent who is above replacement you should bring them in regardless of whether you are good or bad, it just makes you a better team for something you had to spend anyway (salary cap)

The above is a bit of a word salad, but as a good and old team we have no choice to do what ever we can to stay good, once you'd bad, it is very difficult to become good, there are no short cuts to turn a bad team to a good one, only amazing luck and cheating. It is inevitable that we'll get there at some point (Danger and Hawkins are the next hump) so why rush there for no advantage.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Nothing like a change from a Defensive to Attacking Game Plan to add new life.

I'm not referring to the slow turnover of players which is always ongoing.
A Rebuilding Phase is when the premiership window closes in the short term
The focus changes from the older players to the development of a younger squad
The fringe players are replaced with younger players with more potential
Young players are played to gain experience rather than trying to win every game.
Early draft picks become a priority.... rather than older free agents.

If you're asking then when do we stop winning games, then that's next year. If you're asking when we start drafting to replace the midfield wholesale then that's last year.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

The simplest way of describing teams in the context of a rebuild are a continuum of Young-Old and Good-Bad

Regardless of age, a team that is good won't rebuild, as it it is harder to find a good player than it is to find a young one. All a good team achieves by rebuilding is to make it bad.

If you are already bad then it makes sense to move from an old team to a young team. It is the only choice you have.

In the context of an individual player you can make a blanket assumption, as long as the club deems them to be AFL standard they won't retire. A club won't delist a player unless their perceived output drops below that of a replacement player(Best 2nd tier players draftable) or the money spent to keep them on the list could be used to bring in a better player. After a player's peak, every year an older player through wear and tear moves closer and closer to that replacement level, the less their leaving affect the club.

Looking only at personnel, a good team has to bring in less to maintain the same standard then a bad team has to get there in the first place.

If you looked at most teams order ordered the players in a list of above replacement level, about half the team would be just above it or even just below it for kids and mid tier players who aren't 100% fit. For us last night it would be (in no particular order) Kolodjashnij, De Koning, Holmes, Higgins, Ratugolea, Z.Guthrie, Dahlhaus, Atkins and Close. Swap any of these guys out for the next few players of their type (we might not even have one on our list) in and you wouldn't notice much difference.

The next group would be players who have a weapon (pace, long kick, strength at the contest) with some exploitable flaw or have a consistency issue (loss of power/fitness/speed due to wear/tear, mentally weak, lack of constancy, lack of depth in kicking etc) but overall are at an ability that can't be immediately replaced. For us it would be Henry, Blicavs, Tuohy, Smith, Parfitt, Stanley, Selwood and Stengle

As good players age they move incrementally into these lower two categories, in effect it spreads out the loss in output as they approach retirement.

The next group two group can be hard to differentiate, players move between them based on form and fitness

Your A graders who are consistently play at a high level with negligible flaws, like Guthrie

The last group is your superstars whose dominance sets the tone of the match: Dangerfield, Hawkins, Cameron and Stewart.

IMO from a personnel POV a match is determined by

1) How many of your A grade players are playing at the superstar level, a few dominant players can drag an overall worse team over the line
2) How many more players you have above this replacement level compared to the opposition, in effect do you more players contributing positively then the opposition

Back to the voluntary rebuild, since the removal of the priority pick, it doesn't work without AFL assistance (An early inside 1st round free agency compensation pick, both WB and Melbourne have received one on the way to a premiership, if GC get there it will because of this too). There is no reward for making yourself worse, young kids don't develop just because you gift them early games. We've burnt a decade of early picks doing so. Even in a good team that can protect them, in a poor team they get get physically dominated, so many young Carlton players with strapped knees and shoulders.

No team should willingly part with a superstar or an A grader, the breakeven is something like a top 4 pick for even non-superstar A graders. Which only clubs that are already rebuilding have and therefore won't trade. Melbourne and WB benefited last year when they traded with clubs who got their valuations completely wrong. It is near impossible to induce a club to over pay, We didn't get enough for Kelly and we didn't overpay for Cameron(even though it would be have mint if we got him as a free agent)

All you have then is the above replacement but not A graders, either young players on the rise, so you want to hold on to them, or older players who have negligible trade value, North fleeced us and got pick 30 (closer to 35 after all of the bids), At best you've gained an expected value of like 30 games (averaged over the players you draft its f'all) above replacement and made your team immediately worse. Which is why we're been doing the opposite. In a good team you already have plenty of competition for spots another kid amongst the bunch adds little.

In the same way if you can get a free agent who is above replacement you should bring them in regardless of whether you are good or bad, it just makes you a better team for something you had to spend anyway (salary cap)

The above is a bit of a word salad, but as a good and old team we have no choice to do what ever we can to stay good, once you'd bad, it is very difficult to become good, there are no short cuts to turn a bad team to a good one, only amazing luck and cheating. It is inevitable that we'll get there at some point (Danger and Hawkins are the next hump) so why rush there for no advantage.

Very good summary. An economist would love you

 

[catempire]

Very good summary. An economist would love you

Yes I do.

 

[My Tilly]

Nothing like a change from a Defensive to Attacking Game Plan to add new life.

Yep, shame that "toast slow ball control" thread was locked up

 

[juzcat]

If you're asking then when do we stop winning games, then that's next year. If you're asking when we start drafting to replace the midfield wholesale then that's last year.

Genuine question..Which inside and outside mids did we draft last year? Do they stand a chance of being A graders.
I thinks Holmes and Stephens do, but that was 19 and 20

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