Prediction When will Geelong next miss finals?

[Scorpus]

A lot has been made of the so-called "cliff" for Geelong with people waiting for them to not make finals after a long period of success.

Well it keeps not happening. Since the start of 2007 they've missed finals once and have just won a flag with one of the oldest teams ever fielded.

So when do you think is the next year they don't make finals? Is this squad of theirs going to continue to succeed for some time?

 

[port_adelaide_1870]

If their best 22 average age is 28 years old it’s not a matter of if a cliff is coming it’s when the cliff is coming. Would have to have a miracle recruitment team to keep them competing in the finals in the next 2-3 years, but it’s Geelong so wouldn’t put it past them

 

[11kgm]

They are going after Henry and Bruhn this period plus McKenna on a free

Plus they always seem to hit their draft pics

It's inevitable a drop will happen but not for while

 

[BigVic]

The drop will happen like Hawthorn post 1991 premiership. Had an easy win over West Coast at Waverley that year then made up numbers afterwards.

 

[CharacterFirst]

If their best 22 average age is 28 years old it’s not a matter of if a cliff is coming it’s when the cliff is coming. Would have to have a miracle recruitment team to keep them competing in the finals in the next 2-3 years, but it’s Geelong so wouldn’t put it past them

We do.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Depends what you define as a 'cliff'

We've got some really good kids and some really good experienced players, but we're a bit thin through the 26-28 range or 'prime' age if you will.

Bring in Henry, Bruhn, Mckenna...maybe even a Bowes type and get our academy kid in Clohesy.

Make finals next year, maybe a 1-3 year dip and then back in contention as the kids start to hit their prime together. Similar to what Sydney have done through 2016-22.

If we're being honest though it's all just lip service. We've got no idea what will happen, who will develop and who won't, but I wouldn't bet against the GFC is all I'm saying.

We were having this exact same conversation a decade ago....just think about that for a second.

 

[GoldenMagpie16]

I'm more worried about their potential father/son selections.

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

Geelong will never miss the finals. Get over it.

 

[Blue1980]

I put 2024. The logic being if they were Carlton 1995 this year, then Carlton missed in 1997, 2 years later.

Depends though, they may nab another Danger/Cameron in a trade. Just logic would indicate its going to be hard to replace all of Hawkins, Smith, Selwood and Duncan which they will surely have to do in the next 12 months. Then there are others like Danger, Guthrie, Blicavs etc who can't keep going forever.

They are a mightly club and done amazing things, so we will see.

 

[Sky]

I think not being bottom 4 once since West Coast entered the league speaks for itself.

 

[Taper]

I think we're a good chance to miss this year, but I'm confident we'll bounce back next year and finish top 4 again.
People underestimate how hard it is making four preliminary finals in a row.

 

[sobrave]

I think we're a good chance to miss this year, but I'm confident we'll bounce back next year and finish top 4 again.
People underestimate how hard it is making four preliminary finals in a row.

Bounce back based on... Your incredibly young list?

 

[Ati Tude]

I think we're a good chance to miss this year, but I'm confident we'll bounce back next year and finish top 4 again.
People underestimate how hard it is making four preliminary finals in a row.

Not all people...

 

[Rotayjay]

They seem to always find a way to stay in the eight, but it's looking harder and harder for them to get there this year. However, I would expect them to spend one or two seasons out of finals at most.

Geelong and Sydney are the only two clubs that rebuild on the run over and over. On that note, expect Sydney to be back in the finals hunt next year.

 

[Taper]

Bounce back based on... Your incredibly young list?

Our young players looked pretty good last night, did you happen to see the game? We've got a shed load of father sons coming through too, so it's hard to see us having to spend multiple years out of the top 8 and rebuilding like we last did back in 2001/2002/2003.

 

[Mr Meow]

Our young players looked pretty good last night, did you happen to see the game? We've got a shed load of father sons coming through too, so it's hard to see us having to spend multiple years out of the top 8 and rebuilding like we last did back in 2001/2002/2003.

From the past month, number of times our players have been listed in the best:

3x
Blicavs - 32 y.o
Miers - 24 y.o
Atkins - 27 y.o
Stewart - 30 y.o

2x
Duncan - 32 y.o
Stengle - 24 y.o

1x
Close - 24 y.o
Bruhn - 21 y.o
Holmes - 20 y.o
Hawkins - 34 y.o
Dangerfield - 33 y.o
O.Henry - 20 y.o
Z.Guthrie - 25 y.o
Rohan - 32 y.o
Tuohy - 33 y.o

Blicavs is an athletic freak and Stewart was a late AFL starter - who knows how long they might play for. Tuohy will hang them up at the end of this year followed by Dangerfield, Hawkins, Duncan and maybe Rohan at the end of 2024. But plenty of others are contributing well and will be for a while yet.

 

[TheUnicorn]

2049

 

[My Tilly]

2049

Next trade period will be make or break in my opinion.
We are currently linked to everyone but if we manage to bring in one elite midfielder and another player on the cusp of breaking out, I think we have enough quality (youth) to remain in contention.

Bruhn, Holmes, Stengle, Henry, De Koning are progressing well.

 

[Breretonisahood]

2042 when Alphabet stadium undergoes a complete re-build at taxpayers expense and the ground is unavailable for the entire season

 

[Taper]

Next trade period will be make or break in my opinion.
We are currently linked to everyone but if we manage to bring in one elite midfielder and another player on the cusp of breaking out, I think we have enough quality (youth) to remain in contention.

Bruhn, Holmes, Stengle, Henry, De Koning are progressing well.

We don't need Parish. He's good but Essendon would be able to match our offer for him and we don't have the picks this year to trade for him.

Does he want to come home to Winch though? I haven't really heard much and there's always noise by now whenever a country lad is wanting to come home.

 

[My Tilly]

We don't need Parish. He's good but Essendon would be able to match our offer for him and we don't have the picks this year to trade for him.

Does he want to come home to Winch though? I haven't really heard much and there's always noise by now whenever a country lad is wanting to come home.

We have only ever recruited one elite midfielder over the past 20 years and that was Dangerfield.
Boak avoided us, and Parish is a similar type as in dominant contested possession/clearance accumulator.

He would be a very handy inclusion.
Certainly wouldn't lose any sleep if he recommitted but a big inclusion when you take into account the imminent retirements of Duncan & Dangerfield.

 

[Angus Young]

Not sure. Great coach, good list.

 

[Taper]

Not sure. Great coach, good list.

I expect us to return to the top 4 next year.

 

[lewis16]

Geelong will never miss the finals. Get over it.

 

[Roby]

I expect us to return to the top 4 next year.

I expect you to finish bottom 4 next year, if not the year after.