Analysis The Rebuild Of Essendon And North Melbourne And Their Future Prospects

[Ambrosia]

From an Essendon perspective I think the success of this current list build hinges heavily on our unproven KPPs.

We really need multiple of Reid, Cox, Hayes, Jones, Bryan, Baldwin and Hunter to step up and become quality AFL players.

We’ve been pretty competitive this year running with a spine of BZT, Laverde, Weideman and a resting ruck which would be one of the worst in the comp.

 

[Yoda_]

This post is hilarious.

If you can provide some inaccuracies that would be great then we can discuss like adults

 

[Yoda_]

I agree.
Only thing I'd argue is Wright gets a little more support. It means he can get separation with more one-on-one contests as defenders get drawn away.
In the case of Larkey, he is getting double-teamed.
If Coleman-Jones can get a wriggle on, Larkey will start getting an opportunity to win many more contested marking duels.

Peter Wright had Jake Stringer as a foil and the underwhelming Harrison Jones for only 13 games last year. Would hardly suggest the support was as strong as you make out.

We may have delivered to 2MP better than Larkey but that will come for Larkey as the Roos midfielders get better

 

[Ambrosia]

I agree.
Only thing I'd argue is Wright gets a little more support. It means he can get separation with more one-on-one contests as defenders get drawn away.
In the case of Larkey, he is getting double-teamed.
If Coleman-Jones can get a wriggle on, Larkey will start getting an opportunity to win many more contested marking duels.

I don’t think Wright has had much support. Would agree that it would be easier being the focal point of Essendon’s forward line compared with North due to gap in quality between the two sides.

Still think Wright was excellent last year though winning the B&F and impacting games outside of just kicking goals which seems to be a weakness of Larkey.

 

[Yoda_]

Just for some clarity, removing the 13 games with double figure hit outs, presuming he (Wright) was playing ruck and he averages 1.78 goals a game, that is not taking into consideration the games he most likely played as a ruck in season 1 and 2 with little hit out numbers due to being so small. He may very well be a better goals per game forward than Nick Larkey

20

Nick Larkey

Age

25

Ht

198cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.5

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

3.9

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

1.5

3star

G

1.4

5star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

2.0

2star

T

1.0

2star

G

1.0

4star

D

8.8

3star

K

4.2

2star

HB

4.6

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.4

4star

G

0.8

4star

if both played full forward in ALL the listed games.

 

[craffles]

Both Wright and Larkey have been excellent for their clubs in mostly s**t sides with s**t delivery. Both have bright futures and make the best 22 combined.

Move on and stop derailing the thread over a pointless argument.

 

[Yoda_]

Keeping it at its simplest form;

DEF;
Ess 7/10
N.M 4/10


MID;
Ess 6.5/10
N.M 8/10


FWD;
Ess; 6/10
N.M 5/10


Overall
Essendon 19.5/30
North Melbourne 17/30

 

[citizen-erased]

Both Wright and Larkey have been excellent for their clubs in mostly s**t sides with s**t delivery. Both have bright futures and make the best 22 combined.

Move on and stop derailing the thread over a pointless argument.

Its also a pointless thread
We arent rebuilding. In 5 years we havent really turned the side over that much outside of natural attrition (ie retirement)

Stringer, shiel, parish, merrett, laverde, langford, redman, mcgrath, ridley, heppell, guelfi - all been mainstays since '18

Wright came in for daniher
Hind for saad.

Hawks and roos are closer comparisons as both did clean outs and have hit drafts harder

 

[Kangas_11]

If you put down the top 4 mids for both sides and then take 4 carry overs it becomes clear who has the better ‘now’ component

LDU - Merret (Merret - he is literally in the top 5 for coaches votes and will be one of the leading vote getters on Brownlow night despite being ineligible)

Simpkin - Parish (Jy is nice and can do some sweet things but again, Parish is literally one of, if not the best clearance player in the comp)

Cunnington - Shiel (Is Cunnington still a thing? Shiel is at least providing something when fit so again, prolly takes the points here)

Phillips - Caldwell (Caldwell and it’s not even close. Will has had a good fortnight but Jye having been given more responsibility is doing equally well whilst hitting the scoreboard too which edges him over the line here)

Wardlaw - Hobbs (Hobbs is showing more than Wardlaw but is 12 months older so may discount the difference. Last month has been more impressive than George’s first few games but again, reminding you, Hobbs is 12 months older)

Thomas - Perkins (Thomas could be anything, I rate him as high as LDU IF he gets it together. Should Tarryn focus on his footy rather than his Snapchat account he could be a superstar. Perkins is building nicely and perhaps has a better body of work doing a similar role)

Scott - N.Martin (is this even a question?)


Some others explained for you;

Larkey - Wright (I would hazard a guess that most people would take Wright ahead of Larkey as a much better forward. Argue all you want, Wright is one of the best kicks for goal in the comp)

Luke McDonald - Dyson Heppel - Hep has been serviceable, McDonald is a decent role player and would be a better contributor in a better team imho.

I think the issue with this post is that you've really manipulated your comparisons to try and show the bombers as well ahead, which is misleading.

Just off the top of my head, here's a few issues.

• Cunnington isn't in our top 4 mids, he's fit and playing in the ressies, so is completely pointless in this comparison
• LDU has been battling injuries since round 3. Before that he had 20 coaches votes in 2 games, so while Merrett may be ahead at the moment, they are much closer than you're saying.
• I have no idea how you've come to the conclusion Hobbs has been better than Wardlaw. Hobbs averages more marks and i50s, but Wardlaw has double the average clearances and more contested possessions.
• Wright might be one of the best kicks for goal, but Larkey is literally THE best kick for goal amongst current players and top 5 since stats began. Fyi

Just really biased tbh. It also doesn't help that you got the top 4 mids for North wrong (LDU, Simpkin, Phillips, Wardlaw). There's no mention of Phillips recovering from glandular fever, Wardlaw coming back from almost a year off footy, completely ignored Sheezel etc.

 

[boncer34]

Wright’s 2022 was better then anything Larkey has produced though.

It’s a moot discussion though as they both would easily make the combined best 22 imo

Larkey's 2023 is on track to be better goals wise. I reckon he maintains the form tbh.

 

[Sphynx]

I hate these sorts of threads where you micro analyse player vs player, sure it can be fun hanging a bit of s**t, but it's tedious s**t most of the time.

As much as we hate the side from Tulla, even blind freddy can see they are building something, with Scott at the helm it only adds a bit of depth to the rivalry (even if Essendon fans dont like to acknowledge) it also.

Martin is a ******* gun. One of the most damaging players in the comp at the moment, that type of forward center midfielder almost every side is looking for at the moment

Hobbs is following the formline of every decent inside midfielder for the last decade (something we know all to well with Cunnington, LDU and Phillips who all taking 50+ games to get the strength to compete). For some reason people continually think these types are plug and play before the draft, when they are the exact opposite.

They invested in tall top end talent which I think will pay dividends in a few years with how well they have managed to rebuild their smaller stocks.

They have managed some bargain pickups like Wright, Martin, Setterfield, Durham that all good sides manage in their build.


I'd want nothing more than Essendon to be good when we are and have a bit of a repeat of the 90's.

heck all this new dawn bullshit with Geelong, Hawthorn, Richmond and Collingwood.


Carlton are in no mans land, but I'd love a year where it was North, Essendon and Carlton competing for nostalgia reasons.

I definitely think there's a high likelihood we play a few finals against each other in a few years.


I used to love debating these threads 5-6 years ago, but tbh I'm more comfortable with where we are now than I have been in the last 20 years. There's really no need to start spruiking stats etc. I think a number of our players will let their performances do the talking in the next decade. We have half a dozen that are absolutely miles better than anyone we've had at the club since Pagans u/19 side came through and we might add 2 or 3 first rounders this year and Brayden George into the mix next year.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

I hate these sorts of threads where you micro analyse player vs player, sure it can be fun hanging a bit of s**t, but it's tedious s**t most of the time.

As much as we hate the side from Tulla, even blind freddy can see they are building something, with Scott at the helm it only adds a bit of depth to the rivalry (even if Essendon fans dont like to acknowledge) it also.

Martin is a ******* gun. One of the most damaging players in the comp at the moment, that type of forward center midfielder almost every side is looking for at the moment

Hobbs is following the formline of every decent inside midfielder for the last decade (something we know all to well with Cunnington, LDU and Phillips who all taking 50+ games to get the strength to compete). For some reason people continually think these types are plug and play before the draft, when they are the exact opposite.

They invested in tall top end talent which I think will pay dividends in a few years with how well they have managed to rebuild their smaller stocks.

They have managed some bargain pickups like Wright, Martin, Setterfield, Durham that all good sides manage in their build.


I'd want nothing more than Essendon to be good when we are and have a bit of a repeat of the 90's.

* all this new dawn bullshit with Geelong, Hawthorn, Richmond and Collingwood.


Carlton are in no mans land, but I'd love a year where it was North, Essendon and Carlton competing for nostalgia reasons.

I definitely think there's a high likelihood we play a few finals against each other in a few years.


I used to love debating these threads 5-6 years ago, but tbh I'm more comfortable with where we are now than I have been in the last 20 years. There's really no need to start spruiking stats etc. I think a number of our players will let their performances do the talking in the next decade. We have half a dozen that are absolutely miles better than anyone we've had at the club since Pagans u/19 side came through and we might add 2 or 3 first rounders this year and Brayden George into the mix next year.

Coach has a lot to do with it like you said.

We have literally the same list as last year, but clearly a more sustainable game plan.

List discussions are only part of it. Like you said look at Carlton, their list on paper is A grade but their game plan is utter dog s**t.

 

[Coalface]

B. Andrew McGrath - Ben McKay - Jordan Ridley

Hb. Mason Redman - Jayden Laverde - Luke McDonald

C. Nic Martin - Zac Merret - Sam Durham

Hf. Harry Sheezel - Jake Stringer - Archie Perkins

F. Kyle Langford - Peter Wright - Cam Zurhaar

R. Todd Goldstein - Luke Davies Uniacke - Darcy Parish

Ic. Tarryn Thomas - Bailey Scott - Dylan Shiel - George Wardlaw

Have at it.. North have some good youf, but only 7 Roos make my combined side

Nice try, but North will not forget how we got shafted on the attempted North/Essendon Merger of 1921

 

[Chief Hopper]

North playing group to me is about 1-2 years behind the development of Essendons.

North cut their list harder, brought in and played more younger talent.
Apart from young talented players, as citizen-erased noted above Essendon still has a good core group of players that have been in the side for around 5 years.

If North get a similar easy draw next year as Essendon has had this year, it will be good measure of talent how far up the ladder they can go.

 

[Chadwiko]

Have at it.. North have some good youf, but only 7 Roos make my combined side

Reddit is down so I decided to have my own crack at it.

A combined Essendon/NMFC squad 'roughly' based on 2023 form. I've tried to account for injuries or other circumstances (aka Tarryn Thomas) where reasonable, as well.

COMBINED SQUAD

B. Andrew McGrath - Ben McKay - Jordan Ridley

Hb. Harry Sheezel - Griffin Logue - Bailey Scott

C. Nic Martin - Zac Merrett - Jy Simpkin

Hf. Archie Perkins - Peter Wright - Tarryn Thomas

F. Kyle Langford - Nick Larkey - Cam Zurhaar

R. Todd Goldstein - Luke Davies Uniacke - Darcy Parish


Ic. Dylan Shiel, Jake Stringer, Will Phillips, Sam Durham

Sub: Mason Redman or George Wardlaw

 

[boncer34]

Reddit is down so I decided to have my own crack at it.

A combined Essendon/NMFC squad 'roughly' based on 2023 form. I've tried to account for injuries or other circumstances (aka Tarryn Thomas) where reasonable, as well.

COMBINED SQUAD

B. Andrew McGrath - Ben McKay - Jordan Ridley

Hb. Harry Sheezel - Griffin Logue - Bailey Scott

C. Nic Martin - Zac Merrett - Jy Simpkin

Hf. Archie Perkins - Peter Wright - Tarryn Thomas

F. Kyle Langford - Nick Larkey - Cam Zurhaar

R. Todd Goldstein - Luke Davies Uniacke - Darcy Parish


Ic. Dylan Shiel, Jake Stringer, Will Phillips, Sam Durham

Sub: Mason Redman or George Wardlaw

Redman>Scott

If you're going for a HBF I'll take the one averaging more touches, marks, effective disposals, intercepts and meters gained.

And if you're including Thomas (massive lol) then Wright's in the side. Similar sample size.

 

[Ambrosia]

Reddit is down so I decided to have my own crack at it.

A combined Essendon/NMFC squad 'roughly' based on 2023 form. I've tried to account for injuries or other circumstances (aka Tarryn Thomas) where reasonable, as well.

COMBINED SQUAD

B. Andrew McGrath - Ben McKay - Jordan Ridley

Hb. Harry Sheezel - Griffin Logue - Bailey Scott

C. Nic Martin - Zac Merrett - Jy Simpkin

Hf. Archie Perkins - Peter Wright - Tarryn Thomas

F. Kyle Langford - Nick Larkey - Cam Zurhaar

R. Todd Goldstein - Luke Davies Uniacke - Darcy Parish


Ic. Dylan Shiel, Jake Stringer, Will Phillips, Sam Durham

Sub: Mason Redman or George Wardlaw

My only change would be in Redman, Caldwell Out: Scott, Durham

Also don’t think Draper has been worse then Goldy this year although if you were picking a solo ruck it would be clearly Goldy as Draper needs to rest forward to be able to run out games.

Obviously more a fun exercise then providing any real insight into each list.

 

[Ambrosia]

Redman>Scott

If you're going for a HBF I'll take the one averaging more touches, marks, effective disposals, intercepts and meters gained.

And if you're including Thomas (massive lol) then Wright's in the side. Similar sample size.

Wright is picked at CHF

 

[faible]

Ben McKay

It's sad that even given his form this year he'd still be our starting FB.

 

[boncer34]

Wright is picked at CHF

Apologies Chadwiko

Though I add massive lols at picking Wright now.

 

[eth-dog]

Combined side? I'd go:

McGrath - McKay - Ridley
Redman - Zerk-Thatcher - Sheezel
Martin - Simpkin - Durham
Langford - Wright - Thomas
Stringer - Larkey - Menzie
Goldstein - Davies-Uniacke - Merrett
Parish - Shiel - Logue - Caldwell
Heppell/Ziebell sub

Thought your forward line was too tall and slow Chadwiko so decided essentially replace Perkins with Menzie and Zurhaar with Caldwell as a mid rotation.

 

[Chadwiko]

Combined side? I'd go:

McGrath - McKay - Ridley
Redman - Zerk-Thatcher - Sheezel
Martin - Simpkin - Durham
Langford - Wright - Thomas
Stringer - Larkey - Menzie
Goldstein - Davies-Uniacke - Merrett
Parish - Shiel - Logue - Caldwell
Heppell/Ziebell sub

Thought your forward line was too tall and slow Chadwiko so decided essentially replace Perkins with Menzie and Zurhaar with Caldwell as a mid rotation.

Your squad is okay (a bit of Essendon bias but that's natural), but your subs are atrocious lol.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Reddit is down so I decided to have my own crack at it.

A combined Essendon/NMFC squad 'roughly' based on 2023 form. I've tried to account for injuries or other circumstances (aka Tarryn Thomas) where reasonable, as well.

COMBINED SQUAD

B. Andrew McGrath - Ben McKay - Jordan Ridley

Hb. Harry Sheezel - Griffin Logue - Bailey Scott

C. Nic Martin - Zac Merrett - Jy Simpkin

Hf. Archie Perkins - Peter Wright - Tarryn Thomas

F. Kyle Langford - Nick Larkey - Cam Zurhaar

R. Todd Goldstein - Luke Davies Uniacke - Darcy Parish


Ic. Dylan Shiel, Jake Stringer, Will Phillips, Sam Durham

Sub: Mason Redman or George Wardlaw

Scott isn’t a HBF. He’s a winger through and through. I gets it an AA style 22 with mids on the wing, but Scott hasn’t played true HBF for a while.

 

[mcgrath_truther]

I hate these sorts of threads where you micro analyse player vs player, sure it can be fun hanging a bit of s**t, but it's tedious s**t most of the time.
As much as we hate the side from Tulla, even blind freddy can see they are building something, with Scott at the helm it only adds a bit of depth to the rivalry (even if Essendon fans dont like to acknowledge) it also.

Martin is a ******* gun. One of the most damaging players in the comp at the moment, that type of forward center midfielder almost every side is looking for at the moment

Hobbs is following the formline of every decent inside midfielder for the last decade (something we know all to well with Cunnington, LDU and Phillips who all taking 50+ games to get the strength to compete). For some reason people continually think these types are plug and play before the draft, when they are the exact opposite.

They invested in tall top end talent which I think will pay dividends in a few years with how well they have managed to rebuild their smaller stocks.

They have managed some bargain pickups like Wright, Martin, Setterfield, Durham that all good sides manage in their build.


I'd want nothing more than Essendon to be good when we are and have a bit of a repeat of the 90's.

* all this new dawn bullshit with Geelong, Hawthorn, Richmond and Collingwood.


Carlton are in no mans land, but I'd love a year where it was North, Essendon and Carlton competing for nostalgia reasons.

I definitely think there's a high likelihood we play a few finals against each other in a few years.


I used to love debating these threads 5-6 years ago, but tbh I'm more comfortable with where we are now than I have been in the last 20 years. There's really no need to start spruiking stats etc. I think a number of our players will let their performances do the talking in the next decade. We have half a dozen that are absolutely miles better than anyone we've had at the club since Pagans u/19 side came through and we might add 2 or 3 first rounders this year and Brayden George into the mix next year.

well put, a lot of this comes down to own team biases when both clubs are objectively at different parts of “rebuilds” (or in essendon’s case not trying to plateau at 12th on the ladder) it’s just dick waving

 

[faible]

well put, a lot of this comes down to own team biases when both clubs are objectively at different parts of “rebuilds” (or in essendon’s case not trying to plateau at 12th on the ladder) it’s just dick waving

Fun fact; when Essendon played North, Essendon was the less experienced side.