Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

Who has the better future prospects?


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It won't last. I think we all know that but it's really a great achievement to hang around for as long as we have.

Collingwood have done it too. Been up and about for the best part of two decades now. Been some bleak years but they tend to challenge again fairly quickly.
Obviously Sydney who have virtually turned over their entire 2012 premiership team and are at it again.

A team like Richmond, you just know they will go missing for a very long time.
I mean the there are red flags right now.
Cats have just simply been the best run club by a big margin. I think there was another flag or two for the taking of Scott had have responded quicker to Richmond's success and soed up the ball movement quicker rather than sticking to the style that made you so dominant at home but Notas good at the wider space of the G.
 
I've held the opinion that Nankervis has been underrated for his influence during the 3 Richmond premierships 2017-2020. He just looks a bit less effective to me at times this year. Like you said, he can still play to a decent level at times. But I'm not sure if he's going to be one of those ruckmen playing at 34 and I'd like to see Ryan given a chance - either at Naismith or Nankervis expense pretty soon.
He's an old fashioned lion heart, and no most likely not there at 34, and I hope someone takes his place, but I don't think it will be Ryan. At 23 whilst a reasonable ruckman, he has no core strength and gets easily moved by any player with bit of grunt. If he has the spring of likewise lean ruckman not such a problem, but he doesn't.

He is not a bad mark on the lead out of full forward though and a good straight kick, which is where we will see him next game I would think.
 
Nankervis has been very good this year, beat Grundy and Marshall. Even against Gawn he had 18 disposals and 7 marks, and one beautiful clanger. The hitouts weren't a complete domination either, 26 to 18 with Naismith getting 9 as well.
Nankervis is a gun. Good choice as captain too
 

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Cats have just simply been the best run club by a big margin. I think there was another flag or two for the taking of Scott had have responded quicker to Richmond's success and soed up the ball movement quicker rather than sticking to the style that made you so dominant at home but Notas good at the wider space of the G.
Yes and no. We really didn't have a necessary mosquito fleet forward line and second elite KPF (also a running machine) until 2022 to make such a style work. Duncan as a deep lying playmaker wasn't possible until Smith was recruited and Holmes was picked up to give us strong wingmen full of run.

Quick ball movement would just see it returned at express speed where we had very old/slow KPDs. In fact early in seasons Scott did try for more attacking game plans with quicker transitions but we were sliced apart, and didn't get a hold of games until playing more conservatively.

If Miers had developed earlier as a creative link man, and the 2022 versions of Stengle/Cameron/Holmes/SDK/Close arrived in 2019, I have no doubt Geelong would have netted two more flags playing the style they did in that premiership year. As with that side which batted much deeper across the wings/flanks we could've rolled the dice on Atkins and Blicavs as defensive midfielders to support the ageing Dangerfield and Selwood, except those two still would've been closer to their peak.
 
Yes and no. We really didn't have a necessary mosquito fleet forward line and second elite KPF (also a running machine) until 2022 to make such a style work. Duncan as a deep lying playmaker wasn't possible until Smith was recruited and Holmes was picked up to give us strong wingmen full of run.

Quick ball movement would just see it returned at express speed where we had very old/slow KPDs. In fact early in seasons Scott did try for more attacking game plans with quicker transitions but we were sliced apart, and didn't get a hold of games until playing more conservatively.

If Miers had developed earlier as a creative link man, and the 2022 versions of Stengle/Cameron/Holmes/SDK/Close arrived in 2019, I have no doubt Geelong would have netted two more flags playing the style they did in that premiership year. As with that side which batted much deeper across the wings/flanks we could've rolled the dice on Atkins and Blicavs as defensive midfielders to support the ageing Dangerfield and Selwood, except those two still would've been closer to their peak.

Not sure if I agree. Speedsters help the tigers brand, but the pies played it well in 2022 with slow wingers and not much quality in terms of small forwards - one of whom was slow.

I think the tigers got pretty lucky as it took clubs a while to have enough faith in the style to drill the patterns for long enough for it to work. Bucks set up to give it a go at one stage, but pulled the pin when it didn't immediately work.
 
Not sure if I agree. Speedsters help the tigers brand, but the pies played it well in 2022 with slow wingers and not much quality in terms of small forwards - one of whom was slow.

I think the tigers got pretty lucky as it took clubs a while to have enough faith in the style to drill the patterns for long enough for it to work. Bucks set up to give it a go at one stage, but pulled the pin when it didn't immediately work.
It wasn't just speed, but running power and skills.

Our ball use (speed/precision/threat) and territory gains improved significantly once Miers became a linkman and we had Cameron, Stengle, Close, Holmes, Smith, Zuthrie and SDK in the side. Equivalent players before were Ratugolea, Ablett (class but slow), Henderson, Menegola, Dahlhaus, Simpson, Taylor and Parfitt.

That is a serious upgrade in speed, agility, endurance, skill and decision making.

In 2023 we were too unfit and decimated to make it work, while a few older players also declined.

In 2024 the template so far has been able to go back closer to 2022.
 
I would hereby like to congratulate the rebuilding Geelong FC on suddenly turning 27 years 10 months old on average and including 1 player with under 50 games experience for the game against Carlton this week. :hearteyes:
cheers, I'm proud of our 7-0 undefeated cats. I reckon those few games that Dekoning, Holmes, Bruhn, and Henry had over 50 games made all the difference.
 
History revisionism.

The Crows missed finals two years prior to 2017. Began in 2015-2017. As soon as they got there, they have hit rock bottom for years on end.
They were not a champion team whatsoever.

Richmond capitalized in a weak era. Good on em for doing so but this is why your supporters overrate your list and players. You felt they would be a genuine finals threat 2023 and 2024 on back of previous achievements. They're a bottom four team.

The main reason we aren’t competing now is because some of our champions that were there during that dynasty are no longer there or past their prime. It’s very common with teams that win multiple premierships. Richmond then tried to top up and go again. It didn’t work. I don’t begrudge them for it. Injuries have killed them this year also. Could easily say they beat saints blues and eagles if fit. And probably beat Melbourne. Not making excuses tho because I knew they weren’t winning it again anytime soon.

Finally, saying a “weak era” is an incredible stupid thing to say. People in here extremely underrate premierships. Winning 3 in 4 doesn’t happen all the time. Trying to downplay that is absolutely mind blowing.


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Miers, Holmes, Stengle, Bruhn, O.Henry and Zuthrie were all influential today against one of the premiership favourites.

Beyond just looking at the stat sheet (stacks of score involvements and intercepts between them, nonetheless), they were all involved in several critical plays and our end-to-end transition relies almost exclusively on them now.

They will all be playing together for a long while yet, with some free-agency quality added to replace incoming retirements.

Good signs for the Cats.
 
I genuinely don't understand how some football experts think Geelong will be pushing for top 4 this year. It is one of the most baffling calls I have seen in a while. I don't even think Geelong fans think they will be in premiership contention this year.
On a scale of 1 to baffled, how baffled are you feeling now?

Jokes aside, the lid is firmly on. But outside of North Melbourne in 2016, very few 7-0 sides turn out to be duds. And we are getting plenty of games into 22 and unders Bruhn, Holmes, O.Henry, Dempsey, Clark, Conway, Neale and Clark.
 
Rebuild is going according to plan. Won't hit our straps for 5 years but that's to be expected when our top 10 picks are building experience still.

Might not be getting the plaudits of the Yze rebuild but we're quietly going about our business.
 

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Rebuild is going according to plan. Won't hit our straps for 5 years but that's to be expected when our top 10 picks are building experience still.

Might not be getting the plaudits of the Yze rebuild but we're quietly going about our business.

Just on Yze, do you ever remember a softer footballer in the 90 and 00's?
The Michael Jackson glove, the spiked hair . . . why would players like Vlastuin, Prestia, Martin, Nankervis listen to what he has to say :think:
 
Just on Yze, do you ever remember a softer footballer in the 90 and 00's?
The Michael Jackson glove, the spiked hair . . . why would players like Vlastuin, Prestia, Martin, Nankervis listen to what he has to say :think:
Yeah it's a tough one. His ideas and way he thinks about the game would want to be clear and present. Otherwise he's drawing dead with getting some players over the line.
 
SEN's Player Ratings for the much aligned Geelong under 30's

Gryan Miers: A+


Gryan Miers week” inbound, according to Kane Cornes. If he can continue to hit the scoreboard, alongside his ability to create goals, a blazer may await him. Overdue?... 22 touches, 10 score involvements and two goals.

Max Holmes: A+

Quickly become one of the Cats’ best players. Finished with 26 and a goal.

Jake Kolodjashnij: B+

So important for the Cats. Extremely underrated one-on-one defender.

Zach Guthrie: B+

Tasked with a mammoth role in the absence of Tom Stewart and did it superbly. Eight marks to go with 19 touches.

Oliver Henry: B

Kicked three important goals, one of which came entirely against the flow of play to stem the bleeding.

Tyson Stengle: B-

A decent game for the All-Australian. 10 score involvements.

Jack Bowes: C+

Great late in the game.

Brad Close: C+

Tanner Bruhn: C+

Jack Henry: C

Oliver Dempsey: C

Sam De Koning: C-


A great young player but unable to contain Harry McKay. Just the five touches.

Brandon Parfitt: C-

Had 17 touches, under 60 percent.

Mark O’Connor: D

Just the six touches.

Tom Atkins: N/A

Subbed into the game in the third term, didn't find much of the footy.

It's good to get an unbiased assessment sometimes. A few didn't have massive games, but had important stretches and were solid contributors (Bowes, Close, J.Henry, Bruhn and Dempsey). I actually thought Atkins pressure as a sub helped us.

Everyone Stengle and above had a big say in the result or dealt with their duties well. Holmes, Miers, Stengle, O.Henry and Zuthrie are so important for us now.
 

Nine lives and counting: How the Cats keep coming back​

It seems the death of Geelong has been much exaggerated as Chris Scott has them atop the ladder again

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HOW DO they do it?

Geelong is back on top of the ladder – defying football gravity once more – after the lengthy spell of (say it under your breath) one season out of the finals.

With a 6-0 start to 2024 and with seven games to come at GMHBA Stadium, the Cats are in a very strong position to lock away a top-four berth.

If the Cats were a Hollywood blockbuster, they'd surely be The Terminator – the unkillable force that finds different ways to adapt, different methods to pounce, different means to attack. They will, seemingly, always be back.

Again it has been coach Chris Scott and his football department's capacity to change that has Geelong in premiership contention after its post-2022 premiership reset last year.

Defensively the Cats have made the biggest jump to find themselves back in premiership contention, after falling out of the finals for just the second time in Scott's 14-year reign last season.

Champion Data shows them ranked first this season for points against, points against from turnover and scores against per inside-50 percentage. Not only are they stopping their opponents from the biggest score source in turnover, but once they get it inside-50 Geelong's opposition still can't get through its organised defence. They are also second for goals against per inside-50 percentage.

Last season the Cats were seventh for points against, 10th for points against from turnover and 16th for scores and goals against per inside-50 entry.

Geelong's pressure index has clearly been a focus, too, with the Cats ranked No.1 in the AFL for tackles (an average of 69 a game) and third for pressure rating (averaging 187 on the scale).

Scott's spinning of the magnets has also reenergised a group that was quiet in last year's off-season, having dominated the previous trade period in 2022 when they brought in Tanner Bruhn, Ollie Henry, Jack Bowes and a top-10 pick, which became Jhye Clark.

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The natural development of Bruhn and Clark as midfielders and Henry's continued excitement in the forward half have been central to the renewal on the run, while Bowes has also been one of a number of positional switches to succeed.

Last season in his first year at the Cats the former Sun spent 71 per cent of his time as a defender. This year he has flipped that to be 83 per cent in the midfield, with a better understanding of the Geelong system also important in his step up.

The recently re-signed Max Holmes' move to defence has worked – his dashing run off half-back last week against Brisbane breaking open an otherwise still game. Holmes played 95 per cent of his game time as a midfielder last year – it's at 28 per cent this year and 72 per cent in defence.

Mark O'Connor's move into the midfield from defence – 63 per cent defence last year to 79 per cent midfield this season – has seen Tom Atkins flip to the back half, with the reliable Cat now splitting his time nearly in half between defence and the midfield. Last year, Atkins was a permanent midfielder, spending 96 per cent of his game time in the Cats' engine room.

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Reinvention has come in many forms, but it is the Cats' coaching and football department's ability to find the new in the old that has also sparked another tilt.

Geelong has never viewed age as a barrier to new frontiers – its Grand Final team two years ago was the oldest premiership team in history and had an average experience of 146 games per player across the season – and it has looked to its veterans to expand their skillsets too.

Champion forward Jeremy Cameron's shift further up the ground, although marginal, has paid dividends for the forward group, with Cameron spending nine per cent of his game time in the midfield this year compared to one per cent last season.

Mark Blicavs has also been sent more to the wing, where he's played about 40 per cent of this season, as the Cats continue to blood young ruckman Toby Conway alongside Rhys Stanley. Last year Blicavs spent six per cent of his time on the wing, a significant switch.

This season Geelong is also reaping the benefits of not rushing its younger players whilst also doing the same for its next group. Ollie Dempsey has been a three-year overnight sensation, showing flickers of his talents at VFL level (enough to be a trade target for several clubs across the past two years) with tastes of the top level. In 2024, he has been consistent as a half-forward in their mix.

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Zach Guthrie, a premiership player in 2022 and now a half-back weapon, is testament to the no-rush policy after taking time to break into the team at the start of his career.

Connor O'Sullivan is at the start of that process, having been brought into the side to make his debut in round five against North Melbourne, and they are taking a patient approach with fellow tall Shannon Neale.

Perpetual contending relies on a number of factors being tied together brilliantly – the strands are connecting so far this season at the Cats.
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Just on Yze, do you ever remember a softer footballer in the 90 and 00's?
King hit Will Slade in a game at Kardinia. Early 00s.
Back before end of ground cameras. Was in front of the old past players pavilion. Round house from behind.

Got away with it because it was 60m+ behind play and not an umpire or camera saw it.
But those there that day at that end saw it.
 
Just on Yze, do you ever remember a softer footballer in the 90 and 00's?
The Michael Jackson glove, the spiked hair . . . why would players like Vlastuin, Prestia, Martin, Nankervis listen to what he has to say :think:
Probably the one thing he has shown so far is he get can extract the right attitude and effort from the team.

What he lacks at the moment is the cattle and the execution. Partly because of the player availability issues every week, partly because he inherited a list that needs work and hasnt had a chance to address that, and then the execution side they're only into his first year learning the gameplan, that'll take time.
 
SEN's Player Ratings for the much aligned Geelong under 30's

Gryan Miers: A+


“Gryan Miers week” inbound, according to Kane Cornes. If he can continue to hit the scoreboard, alongside his ability to create goals, a blazer may await him. Overdue?... 22 touches, 10 score involvements and two goals.

Max Holmes: A+

Quickly become one of the Cats’ best players. Finished with 26 and a goal.

Jake Kolodjashnij: B+

So important for the Cats. Extremely underrated one-on-one defender.

Zach Guthrie: B+

Tasked with a mammoth role in the absence of Tom Stewart and did it superbly. Eight marks to go with 19 touches.

Oliver Henry: B

Kicked three important goals, one of which came entirely against the flow of play to stem the bleeding.

Tyson Stengle: B-

A decent game for the All-Australian. 10 score involvements.

Jack Bowes: C+

Great late in the game.

Brad Close: C+

Tanner Bruhn: C+

Jack Henry: C

Oliver Dempsey: C

Sam De Koning: C-


A great young player but unable to contain Harry McKay. Just the five touches.

Brandon Parfitt: C-

Had 17 touches, under 60 percent.

Mark O’Connor: D

Just the six touches.

Tom Atkins: N/A

Subbed into the game in the third term, didn't find much of the footy.

It's good to get an unbiased assessment sometimes. A few didn't have massive games, but had important stretches and were solid contributors (Bowes, Close, J.Henry, Bruhn and Dempsey). I actually thought Atkins pressure as a sub helped us.

Everyone Stengle and above had a big say in the result or dealt with their duties well. Holmes, Miers, Stengle, O.Henry and Zuthrie are so important for us now.
To add, Dempsey had a great 1st qtr but faded which is common for a younger player
 
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