Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

Who has the better future prospects?


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Just alter that first section to 31+yo's for me thanks Meow. ;)
I'm happy with how it is. Cameron and Stewart haven't played worse because they are 31. Richmond veterans appear cooked at 30 but Geelong's tend to squeeze more (quality) juice out of the orange.

Hell, even Nankervis looks past his use by date. Isn't he 28 or 29?

Big Mac moves like he is 45. Martin has been proppy following the 2020 grand final when he was about 30.
 
Those teams have won 8 Grand Finals between them over the last 61 seasons.

Richmond has won 8 Grand Finals on their own over the last 57 seasons.

The CEO's of Collingwood, Geelong and Swans should be publicly declaring they want to be more like Richmond.
Puts it into perspective doesn't it? GF's are hard to win. Collingwood have lost the most GF's by a mile. Yeah winning it every now & than eases the pain but there is a lot of heartache there.

Swans have been disappointing in there last two GF's beaten by the biggest underdog in a finals series & smashed off the park & over in the first quarter versus Geelong.
 

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Those teams have won 8 Grand Finals between them over the last 61 seasons.

Richmond has won 8 Grand Finals on their own over the last 57 seasons.

The CEO's of Collingwood, Geelong and Swans should be publicly declaring they want to be more like Richmond.
That's only relevant to really old people and to your credit, you are that (happy 80th, by the way). Over the past 35 years, which would be closer to the average BigFooty user's football experience, it is 3 Richmond premierships to 8 for the others collective. The only thing Richmond have done well in that time is capitalise the one time they had a strong side.
 
I would hereby like to congratulate the rebuilding Geelong FC on suddenly turning 27 years 10 months old on average and including 1 player with under 50 games experience for the game against Carlton this week. :hearteyes:

The wonderful irony is we're still playing as many under 22s as the "at least we're getting games into kids" Tigers. Your team the other night was almost exactly the same age as the Geelong team that beat Brisbane and almost a year older than the Melbourne team you lost to.

We all know the first rule of bigfooty is it's better to be young than good. But what if you're neither young nor good?
 
That's only relevant to really old people and to your credit, you are that (happy 80th, by the way). Over the past 35 years, which would be closer to the average BigFooty user's football experience, it is 3 Richmond premierships to 8 for the others collective. The only thing Richmond have done well in that time is capitalise the one time they had a strong side.

But these clubs didn't commence operating conveniently when the average Bigfooty user was born.
 
But these clubs didn't commence operating conveniently when the average Bigfooty user was born.
Of course, in fact they went back even further. Otherwise the 60 year cut off point is also irrelevant.

Only you can tell us if it's fulfilling to follow a club who has had two great periods with near 40 years in between of irrelevancy, and what could be a long period of the same ahead. You insist it is, so good on you.

I dare say most Geelong, Sydney and Collingwood supporters have been fairly satisfied following mostly competitive clubs the past few decades. Maybe that's why future prospect threads don't send us on the desperate tangents you go on.
 
The wonderful irony is we're still playing as many under 22s as the "at least we're getting games into kids" Tigers. Your team the other night was almost exactly the same age as the Geelong team that beat Brisbane and almost a year older than the Melbourne team you lost to.

We all know the first rule of bigfooty is it's better to be young than good. But what if you're neither young nor good?
And 5 good kids is better than 10 where the jury is still out. Most of our depth who have played this season would be best 23 for Richmond right now.

Richmond would bite our hands off to take:

-De Koning, Bruhn, Holmes, O.Henry, Dempsey, Conway, Neale, Knevitt, Clark and O'Sullivan

in exchange for:

-Mansell, Kozzy, Ross, Ryan, Cumberland, Dow, Ralphsmith, MRJ, Trezise, Sonsie, Banks, Gibcus, Brown, Campbell and Greene.
 
Those teams have won 8 Grand Finals between them over the last 61 seasons.

Richmond has won 8 Grand Finals on their own over the last 57 seasons.

The CEO's of Collingwood, Geelong and Swans should be publicly declaring they want to be more like Richmond.
Firstly Medicority, those 3 teams have won 10 GF's over the past 61 years, not 8, but accuracy has never been a strength of yours! Not sure what significance 61 years has?

What is of greater significance is that the teams to which you refer have won 8 premierships THIS CENTURY to Richmond's 3, or 9 since the AFL was formed. AFL form this century is what Brendon Gale was talking about. I know!
 
And 5 good kids is better than 10 where the jury is still out. Most of our depth who have played this season would be best 23 for Richmond right now.

Richmond would bite our hands off to take:

-De Koning, Bruhn, Holmes, O.Henry, Dempsey, Conway, Neale, Knevitt, Clark and O'Sullivan

in exchange for:

-Mansell, Kozzy, Ross, Ryan, Cumberland, Dow, Ralphsmith, MRJ, Trezise, Sonsie, Banks, Gibcus, Brown, Campbell and Greene.

Realistically you'd take Holmes on his own over that lot. One kid playing AA footy as a 21 year old and just scratching the surface of his talent is worth more than any number of 20-23 year olds scratching around trying to make a career for themselves.
 

Nine lives and counting: How the Cats keep coming back​

It seems the death of Geelong has been much exaggerated as Chris Scott has them atop the ladder again

06BrGe24RF-65-1-.jpg


HOW DO they do it?


Geelong is back on top of the ladder – defying football gravity once more – after the lengthy spell of (say it under your breath) one season out of the finals.

With a 6-0 start to 2024 and with seven games to come at GMHBA Stadium, the Cats are in a very strong position to lock away a top-four berth.

If the Cats were a Hollywood blockbuster, they'd surely be The Terminator – the unkillable force that finds different ways to adapt, different methods to pounce, different means to attack. They will, seemingly, always be back.

Again it has been coach Chris Scott and his football department's capacity to change that has Geelong in premiership contention after its post-2022 premiership reset last year.

Defensively the Cats have made the biggest jump to find themselves back in premiership contention, after falling out of the finals for just the second time in Scott's 14-year reign last season.

Champion Data shows them ranked first this season for points against, points against from turnover and scores against per inside-50 percentage. Not only are they stopping their opponents from the biggest score source in turnover, but once they get it inside-50 Geelong's opposition still can't get through its organised defence. They are also second for goals against per inside-50 percentage.

Last season the Cats were seventh for points against, 10th for points against from turnover and 16th for scores and goals against per inside-50 entry.

Geelong's pressure index has clearly been a focus, too, with the Cats ranked No.1 in the AFL for tackles (an average of 69 a game) and third for pressure rating (averaging 187 on the scale).

Scott's spinning of the magnets has also reenergised a group that was quiet in last year's off-season, having dominated the previous trade period in 2022 when they brought in Tanner Bruhn, Ollie Henry, Jack Bowes and a top-10 pick, which became Jhye Clark.

qfUmXtua.jpg


The natural development of Bruhn and Clark as midfielders and Henry's continued excitement in the forward half have been central to the renewal on the run, while Bowes has also been one of a number of positional switches to succeed.

Last season in his first year at the Cats the former Sun spent 71 per cent of his time as a defender. This year he has flipped that to be 83 per cent in the midfield, with a better understanding of the Geelong system also important in his step up.

The recently re-signed Max Holmes' move to defence has worked – his dashing run off half-back last week against Brisbane breaking open an otherwise still game. Holmes played 95 per cent of his game time as a midfielder last year – it's at 28 per cent this year and 72 per cent in defence.

Mark O'Connor's move into the midfield from defence – 63 per cent defence last year to 79 per cent midfield this season – has seen Tom Atkins flip to the back half, with the reliable Cat now splitting his time nearly in half between defence and the midfield. Last year, Atkins was a permanent midfielder, spending 96 per cent of his game time in the Cats' engine room.

n1TLTfco.jpg


Reinvention has come in many forms, but it is the Cats' coaching and football department's ability to find the new in the old that has also sparked another tilt.

Geelong has never viewed age as a barrier to new frontiers – its Grand Final team two years ago was the oldest premiership team in history and had an average experience of 146 games per player across the season – and it has looked to its veterans to expand their skillsets too.

Champion forward Jeremy Cameron's shift further up the ground, although marginal, has paid dividends for the forward group, with Cameron spending nine per cent of his game time in the midfield this year compared to one per cent last season.

Mark Blicavs has also been sent more to the wing, where he's played about 40 per cent of this season, as the Cats continue to blood young ruckman Toby Conway alongside Rhys Stanley. Last year Blicavs spent six per cent of his time on the wing, a significant switch.

This season Geelong is also reaping the benefits of not rushing its younger players whilst also doing the same for its next group. Ollie Dempsey has been a three-year overnight sensation, showing flickers of his talents at VFL level (enough to be a trade target for several clubs across the past two years) with tastes of the top level. In 2024, he has been consistent as a half-forward in their mix.

tneoXyaC.jpg


Zach Guthrie, a premiership player in 2022 and now a half-back weapon, is testament to the no-rush policy after taking time to break into the team at the start of his career.

Connor O'Sullivan is at the start of that process, having been brought into the side to make his debut in round five against North Melbourne, and they are taking a patient approach with fellow tall Shannon Neale.

Perpetual contending relies on a number of factors being tied together brilliantly – the strands are connecting so far this season at the Cats.
 

Nine lives and counting: How the Cats keep coming back​

It seems the death of Geelong has been much exaggerated as Chris Scott has them atop the ladder again

06BrGe24RF-65-1-.jpg


HOW DO they do it?

Geelong is back on top of the ladder – defying football gravity once more – after the lengthy spell of (say it under your breath) one season out of the finals.

With a 6-0 start to 2024 and with seven games to come at GMHBA Stadium, the Cats are in a very strong position to lock away a top-four berth.

If the Cats were a Hollywood blockbuster, they'd surely be The Terminator – the unkillable force that finds different ways to adapt, different methods to pounce, different means to attack. They will, seemingly, always be back.

Again it has been coach Chris Scott and his football department's capacity to change that has Geelong in premiership contention after its post-2022 premiership reset last year.

Defensively the Cats have made the biggest jump to find themselves back in premiership contention, after falling out of the finals for just the second time in Scott's 14-year reign last season.

Champion Data shows them ranked first this season for points against, points against from turnover and scores against per inside-50 percentage. Not only are they stopping their opponents from the biggest score source in turnover, but once they get it inside-50 Geelong's opposition still can't get through its organised defence. They are also second for goals against per inside-50 percentage.

Last season the Cats were seventh for points against, 10th for points against from turnover and 16th for scores and goals against per inside-50 entry.

Geelong's pressure index has clearly been a focus, too, with the Cats ranked No.1 in the AFL for tackles (an average of 69 a game) and third for pressure rating (averaging 187 on the scale).

Scott's spinning of the magnets has also reenergised a group that was quiet in last year's off-season, having dominated the previous trade period in 2022 when they brought in Tanner Bruhn, Ollie Henry, Jack Bowes and a top-10 pick, which became Jhye Clark.

qfUmXtua.jpg


The natural development of Bruhn and Clark as midfielders and Henry's continued excitement in the forward half have been central to the renewal on the run, while Bowes has also been one of a number of positional switches to succeed.

Last season in his first year at the Cats the former Sun spent 71 per cent of his time as a defender. This year he has flipped that to be 83 per cent in the midfield, with a better understanding of the Geelong system also important in his step up.

The recently re-signed Max Holmes' move to defence has worked – his dashing run off half-back last week against Brisbane breaking open an otherwise still game. Holmes played 95 per cent of his game time as a midfielder last year – it's at 28 per cent this year and 72 per cent in defence.

Mark O'Connor's move into the midfield from defence – 63 per cent defence last year to 79 per cent midfield this season – has seen Tom Atkins flip to the back half, with the reliable Cat now splitting his time nearly in half between defence and the midfield. Last year, Atkins was a permanent midfielder, spending 96 per cent of his game time in the Cats' engine room.

n1TLTfco.jpg


Reinvention has come in many forms, but it is the Cats' coaching and football department's ability to find the new in the old that has also sparked another tilt.

Geelong has never viewed age as a barrier to new frontiers – its Grand Final team two years ago was the oldest premiership team in history and had an average experience of 146 games per player across the season – and it has looked to its veterans to expand their skillsets too.

Champion forward Jeremy Cameron's shift further up the ground, although marginal, has paid dividends for the forward group, with Cameron spending nine per cent of his game time in the midfield this year compared to one per cent last season.

Mark Blicavs has also been sent more to the wing, where he's played about 40 per cent of this season, as the Cats continue to blood young ruckman Toby Conway alongside Rhys Stanley. Last year Blicavs spent six per cent of his time on the wing, a significant switch.

This season Geelong is also reaping the benefits of not rushing its younger players whilst also doing the same for its next group. Ollie Dempsey has been a three-year overnight sensation, showing flickers of his talents at VFL level (enough to be a trade target for several clubs across the past two years) with tastes of the top level. In 2024, he has been consistent as a half-forward in their mix.

tneoXyaC.jpg


Zach Guthrie, a premiership player in 2022 and now a half-back weapon, is testament to the no-rush policy after taking time to break into the team at the start of his career.

Connor O'Sullivan is at the start of that process, having been brought into the side to make his debut in round five against North Melbourne, and they are taking a patient approach with fellow tall Shannon Neale.

Perpetual contending relies on a number of factors being tied together brilliantly – the strands are connecting so far this season at the Cats.
They're playing like a young side, with the manic pressuring and elite attacking transitions following intercepts. Although not all "kids", Bruhn, Holmes, Parfitt, Atkins, Bowes, Dempsey, Zuthrie, Miers, Close, Stengle, Clark and co have been strong on the ol' pressure index. O.Henry contests things better. There's been a bit more zip about the group.
 
Those teams have won 8 Grand Finals between them over the last 61 seasons.

Richmond has won 8 Grand Finals on their own over the last 57 seasons.

The CEO's of Collingwood, Geelong and Swans should be publicly declaring they want to be more like Richmond.
The VFL and zones are dead. Have been for decades. Poor tigs
 

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Puts it into perspective doesn't it? GF's are hard to win. Collingwood have lost the most GF's by a mile. Yeah winning it every now & than eases the pain but there is a lot of heartache there.

Swans have been disappointing in there last two GF's beaten by the biggest underdog in a finals series & smashed off the park & over in the first quarter versus Geelong.

You need a lot of luck in grand finals and when I say luck, you have to hope you meet a team that is only rated as very good opposed to a champion team.

Richmond had the luxury of facing Adelaide in 2017, a team who Brisbane would have walloped in last years grannie and Brisbane themselves were hardly a champion unit.
Even when Richmond faced Geelong in a pandemic riddled season resulting in 5 weeks less of football + shortened quarters, Geelong were a shadow of the team they were to become when they acquired De Koning, Cameron, Stengle and Holmes.

This is why St Kilda were unfortunate during the Riewoldt era. To come up against Geelong and then Collingwood, they really had no chance.
Bit similar to Geelong of the 90's when they had to face the very best of the best.

Sydney had no excuses in 2016. The Bulldogs team was not even close to the best team that year. Swans had a complete let down.
 
Hopper certainly wasn't BOG until then. Absolute ball magnet but 6 turnovers compared to 11 effective disposals, going at 47% disposal efficiency with just 2 score involvements is the definition of butchering it.

This is everything wrong with football, the manic focus on disposals but where is the efficiency, precision and hurt factor? When Hopper gets it I am already summing up how the opposition are going to get it back and score. Luckily Melbourne themselves had an absolute shocker with ball in hand too.
Kicking comes a bit with confidence and continuity, something he has very little of. Nobody in the AFL can hack a ball like he did on Wednesday, especially one with a B & F to his name. Will never be. good kick, but has been a lot better than that. 6 games in a row and I'd wager his kicking will be much better.
 
You need a lot of luck in grand finals and when I say luck, you have to hope you meet a team that is only rated as very good opposed to a champion team.

Richmond had the luxury of facing Adelaide in 2017, a team who Brisbane would have walloped in last years grannie and Brisbane themselves were hardly a champion unit.
Even when Richmond faced Geelong in a pandemic riddled season resulting in 5 weeks less of football + shortened quarters, Geelong were a shadow of the team they were to become when they acquired De Koning, Cameron, Stengle and Holmes.

This is why St Kilda were unfortunate during the Riewoldt era. To come up against Geelong and then Collingwood, they really had no chance.
Bit similar to Geelong of the 90's when they had to face the very best of the best.

Sydney had no excuses in 2016. The Bulldogs team was not even close to the best team that year. Swans had a complete let down.

Adelaide rated on average 237.9 in the official ratings in 2017 and slightly higher in 2016. This is ay higher than Geelong in 2022 who rated 217.1 on average. Brisbane rated 211 in 2024.

In fact since these ratings commenced in 2012, only the following teams have returned a better average rating than Adelaide in 2017:

2012 Hawthorn 240.6
2014 Hawthorn 249.6
2016 GWS 241.4
2016 Adelaide 239.5

2017 Adelaide 237.9

and the only other team anywhere near this average rating, including all Richmond flag teams is

2016 Sydney 237.8


Now of course these ratings don't take into account how difficult your draw is, or how important the game is, ie there is no weighting for finals. And no allowance for injuries etc.

But Adelaide were very strong in finals in 2017 until they met Richmond in the Grand Final. And they were clearly a high performing team throughout 2016-2017, even in comparison to other Grand Finalists in the last dozen years.
 
Adelaide rated on average 237.9 in the official ratings in 2017 and slightly higher in 2016. This is ay higher than Geelong in 2022 who rated 217.1 on average. Brisbane rated 211 in 2024.

In fact since these ratings commenced in 2012, only the following teams have returned a better average rating than Adelaide in 2017:

2012 Hawthorn 240.6
2014 Hawthorn 249.6
2016 GWS 241.4
2016 Adelaide 239.5

2017 Adelaide 237.9

and the only other team anywhere near this average rating, including all Richmond flag teams is

2016 Sydney 237.8


Now of course these ratings don't take into account how difficult your draw is, or how important the game is, ie there is no weighting for finals. And no allowance for injuries etc.

But Adelaide were very strong in finals in 2017 until they met Richmond in the Grand Final. And they were clearly a high performing team throughout 2016-2017, even in comparison to other Grand Finalists in the last dozen years.

History revisionism.

The Crows missed finals two years prior to 2017. Began in 2015-2017. As soon as they got there, they have hit rock bottom for years on end.
They were not a champion team whatsoever.

Richmond capitalized in a weak era. Good on em for doing so but this is why your supporters overrate your list and players. You felt they would be a genuine finals threat 2023 and 2024 on back of previous achievements. They're a bottom four team.
 
History revisionism.

The Crows missed finals two years prior to 2017. Began in 2015-2017. As soon as they got there, they have hit rock bottom for years on end.
They were not a champion team whatsoever.

Richmond capitalized in a weak era. Good on em for doing so but this is why your supporters overrate your list and players. You felt they would be a genuine finals threat 2023 and 2024 on back of previous achievements. They're a bottom four team.
Finished top going 15-6-1 too. A very weak return for a minor premier.

It's a record that would have had them sitting 7th the previous year in 2016, and 5th in 2012, 2014, 2022, & 2023.

They were a good team. Nothing more, nothing less.
 
Finished top going 15-6-1 too. A very weak return for a minor premier.

It's a record that would have had them sitting 7th the previous year in 2016, and 5th in 2012, 2014, 2022, & 2023.

They were a good team. Nothing more, nothing less.

They were as much as 6 goals better than the 3rd best team in the finals and 8 goals weaker than the premier - though that latter figure was clearly unkind to the Crows who were playing on Richmond's home ground and he 8 goals was only 8 scoring shots.

Crows were a very good team who were slightly on the wrong track in one or two areas and were unlucky enough to run into a dominant dynasty team.
 
I'm happy with how it is. Cameron and Stewart haven't played worse because they are 31. Richmond veterans appear cooked at 30 but Geelong's tend to squeeze more (quality) juice out of the orange.

Hell, even Nankervis looks past his use by date. Isn't he 28 or 29?

Big Mac moves like he is 45. Martin has been proppy following the 2020 grand final when he was about 30.
Nankervis has been very good this year, beat Grundy and Marshall. Even against Gawn he had 18 disposals and 7 marks, and one beautiful clanger. The hitouts weren't a complete domination either, 26 to 18 with Naismith getting 9 as well.
 
Nankervis has been very good this year, beat Grundy and Marshall. Even against Gawn he had 18 disposals and 7 marks, and one beautiful clanger. The hitouts weren't a complete domination either, 26 to 18 with Naismith getting 9 as well.
I've held the opinion that Nankervis has been underrated for his influence during the 3 Richmond premierships 2017-2020. He just looks a bit less effective to me at times this year. Like you said, he can still play to a decent level at times. But I'm not sure if he's going to be one of those ruckmen playing at 34 and I'd like to see Ryan given a chance - either at Naismith or Nankervis expense pretty soon.
 
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