Draft Watcher ModernArtillery 2021 Draft Thread

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To get the KPD you're looking for I think you'd have to take Rhett Bazzo instead of Chesser which is not unreasonable. Otherwise you're probably settling for a mature-age option like Charlie Dean over Bergman. Dean might suit a need but I really like Bergman, need or not. Corey Preston probably plays his best footy from the back half and through the midfield but he's a capable small forward. Isaiah Dudley also gets to North in this draft and he's as small forward as they come.



I'd agree that's nearing the top end of Howes' range. I feel McDonald and Roberts will definitely be there at both those early second round selections so it's every chance. I'd love McDonald in that range. Throw in Ward and Clarke and I think it's a very nice haul!
It is an interesting debate with pick 20. Whether North split it if someone they like slips, or they target a Chesser/Brown/Wilmot type, or a KPD like Bazzo/Aleer or go down the small forward route. Whatever we do with 20 affects who we target later on.
 

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Really interesting read, and terrific picks for us . I like the dilemma you've given Fremantle by having Andrew, Erasmus and Amiss available (as well as Hobbs and JVR), especially with Richmond having that in between pick, and GWS at 15 likely keen on Andrew.

Do you see this creating any potential in terms of live trading?

GWS - 8 for 15 and _?

Richmond - 8/10 and 21 for 9 and 17?

There's always the possibility, but I think Fremantle would be pretty comfortable with where they're currently positioned. They're likely to get their key forward (Amiss or Andrew) and a top end midfielder, so I don't see too many scenarios where they can dramatically improve their hand this year.

The Giants might consider trading back with Richmond, swapping pick 2 (likely 4), for pick 7 (likely 9). I think they'd only consider that though if a) Gibcus is their guy and b) if they can get a future pick out of it. If Andrew is the guy for GWS then there's too much risk trading back, with Freo a chance to take him as we've discussed. The Tigers' second round draft capital doesn't hold any value for the Giants so I can't really see the deal getting done without 2022 compensation.
 
It is an interesting debate with pick 20. Whether North split it if someone they like slips, or they target a Chesser/Brown/Wilmot type, or a KPD like Bazzo/Aleer or go down the small forward route. Whatever we do with 20 affects who we target later on.
Yeah agreed! It's a tough spot to phantom draft because there's some real quality left on the board in that early second round.
 
Draper is a gun mate. If he didn’t play in same SANFL team as JHF I think there would be a lot more talk. If he was on the board at 21 Freo wouldn’t be able to call him out quick enough
Didn’t show much against WA
 
Well done ModernArtillery - enjoy reading your thoughts.

Not sure about Macdonald for Carlton. Seems we're looking at someone who can split time mid and forward rather than an inside mid.

We're also taking just the one pick, so in future efforts you can wipe off our second selection.
 
Hard to be unhappy with that for Fremantle. Keeping it simple. With the delistings of Blakely and Crowden, I imagine we do take a 5th pick. So I’ll take Arthur Jones or Lewis Rayson thanks.

That's the dream, but putting your faith in a player who has spent 2 years in rehab is a strategy we are trying to rid ourselves of.

Do you see Draper and Sturt as only capable as medium forwards?

I like Arlo Draper for us, but largely because I view him and Sturt as quite different players - so I think they can play together.

Sturt is more your inside 50, low possession high marking, third or fourth tall. Ideally he’d be like our Bayley Fritsch, at the least he’s shown he could be a Will Hayward level talent. But he’s the 10 disposal, 5 mark, 1 goal a game type.

Draper is much more a small/medium flanker type. More like a Connor Rozee or Archie Perkins. He’d be more likely to push higher up the ground and deliver it inside 50 to Sturt. Would need to improve his tank to really enter the midfield mix. Could also be a very good half back and some teams will prefer him there - hopefully not Fremantle though.
 
Watched him play league SANFL. He plays round 1
SANFL R1 shouldn’t that read rds 17 + 18 + average 11 disp. 0.5 goals

would rather make a bid for Owens, or pick up Hough, Bazzo, Howes or Sheldrick.

They are all opinions aren’t they
 

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If he gets too 21 will be a tough call for freo because clubs will come knocking hard for that pick.
We don't have to wait until that selection to trade it though. I imagine clubs may already have had discussion about scenarios. I would be pretty happy to find Draper there, but JVR or Knevitt could also be tempting options.

In list management terms I hope we are considering the talls available next year, and pick 21 can facilitate a f1.
 
Didn’t show much against WA
LOL

For reasons only known to SA coach Tony Bamford Draper played in defence in that game, a role he's certainly unfamiliar with having played mostly mid/forward previous...not to mention the shoulder injury that saw him on the sidelines during that game, since had surgery to rectify the issue.

1636164648806.png
 
LOL

For reasons only known to SA coach Tony Bamford Draper played in defence in that game, a role he's certainly unfamiliar with having played mostly mid/forward previous...not to mention the shoulder injury that saw him on the sidelines during that game, since had surgery to rectify the issue.

View attachment 1275111
Decent Fyfe replacement with that shoulder injury.
 
This was way more painful than I anticipated and I've spent way more time on this than I'd care to admit. The late picks probably aren't in perfect order but it should be reasonably close.

Round 1

Pick 1 North Melbourne - Jason Horne-Francis
Pick 2 Collingwood - Nick Daicos* (matched bid)
Pick 3 Western Bulldogs - Sam Darcy* (matched bid)
Pick 4 GWS - Josh Gibcus
Pick 5 Gold Coast - Finn Callaghan


I don't think there is anything too shocking here. The order of the bids and then GWS passing on Callaghan to select Gibcus are probably the only legitimate variables. Kall Burns spoke on Road to the Draft suggesting that the Suns would be keen to move up but not back, which suggests to me that they probably would like Callaghan. I think the Giants would love to find a trade partner to move back but finding that partner and managing to still get their guy may be a challenge.

Pick 6 Adelaide - Josh Rachele
Pick 7 Hawthorn - Josh Ward
Pick 8 Fremantle - Jye Amiss
Pick 9 Richmond - Mac Andrew
Pick 10 Fremantle - Neil Erasmus


Rachele to the Crows is seeming more and more likely with the Giants and Suns also rumoured to be interested. Gold Coast I think would be a real threat if the Giants go Callaghan. Pick 8 to Fremantle was my first real headache. If the Dockers are going to take Amiss then it makes most sense to me for them to do it with pick 8 as Richmond could be a possible landing spot for a key forward. I considered Hobbs at 9 and 10 for the Tigers and Dockers respectively but ultimately preferred Andrew and Erasmus.

Pick 11 St Kilda - Ben Hobbs
Pick 12 West Coast - Matthew Johnson
Pick 13 Essendon Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
Pick 14 Port Adelaide - Josh Goater
Pick 15 GWS - Sam Butler


I really dislike the Saints + Hobbs fit but I just couldn't leave him on the board for any longer. He's probably top 10 on draft night so this feels like a bit of a slide. Interestingly, I think the Saints going Hobbs prevents Johnson from sliding as I think West Coast would favour Hobbs if available. If that played out, I could foresee Johnson getting to the late teens. Port miss out on Wanganeen-Milera but I think an inside midfielder is a bigger long-term need anyway and think Goater could fill that. Butler is probably the first big 'reach' but I'm really starting to get on board with his skillset and think that's someone the Giants would love to add to their list.

Pick 16 Brisbane - Zac Taylor
Pick 17 Richmond - Jacob Van Rooyen
Pick 18 Sydney - Mitch Knevitt
Pick 19 Melbourne - Tyler Sonsie
Pick 20 Brisbane - Josh Sinn


I've been high on Zac Taylor for a while now and Brisbane I feel are just about the best in the business at developing these types. I know it's not a need and hurts more seeing JVR go next. I don't love the fit but I think Richmond and Melbourne would consider Taylor and so I've locked him away here. Richmond could go a number of different directions here but with options to address the midfield and utilities in the second round, I've doubled down on the key position types. Sydney get some inside midfield help and the Dees and Brisbane get some serious value late in the first round.

Round 2

Pick 21 Fremantle - Arlo Draper
Pick 22 North Melbourne - Campbell Chesser
Pick 23 St Kilda - Mitch Owens* (matched bid)
Pick 24 Hawthorn - Blake Howes
Pick 25 Geelong - Tom Brown


Draper and Chesser present great value for the Dockers and Roos. St Kilda snag Owens with the Hawks adding some athleticism to their forward half. I really like Tom Brown and considered him for Brisbane in the first round and for North at pick 22.

Pick 26 Hawthorn - Judson Clarke
Pick 27 Carlton - Connor MacDonald
Pick 28 Richmond - Darcy Wilmot
Pick 29 Richmond - Jesse Motlop
Pick 30 Richmond - Angus Sheldrick


Clarke brings some more speed and x-factor to Hawthorn's forward set up and I think MacDonald can be a key piece to Carlton's midfield in the long term. The big play here is Richmond's haul. After going Andrew and JVR in the first round, they add Wilmot, Motlop and Sheldrick to add to a draft hand that I think balances them really nicely. Wilmot is a great get at 28, Motlop has his fans and though this may be a touch early for Sheldrick, I feel it's a worthwhile gamble with the midfield depth in this draft dwindling.

Pick 31 West Coast - Brady Hough
Pick 32 Geelong - Rhett Bazzo
Pick 33 Sydney - Leek Alleer
Pick 34 GWS - Josh Fahey* (bid matched)
Pick 35 Geelong - Ronald Fejo Jr


It was around this range where I started hating every passing selection. Hough to West Coast seems reasonable enough, though I would've liked to add some more speed here. Corey Warner could be an option but I think it would be a reach in this range. There's a bit of irony in Sydney taking an under-developed intercept marking key defender after letting Aliir Aliir go last year. I wanted Sheldrick at this pick for the Swans but I'd already sent him to Richmond and I think it's too early for Jack Williams who I think is also an option. The Fahey bid comes and Geelong add some class and x-factor with Ronny Fejo.

Pick 36 Adelaide - Kai Lohmann
Pick 37 Geelong - Matthew Roberts
Pick 38 West Coast - Alastair Lord
Pick 39 Melbourne - Paul Curtis


I have no idea who Adelaide will go with this selection and low key feel like they'll pull a Hugh Stagg or something like that (nothing against Stagg, I just prefer others here). So I just went ahead and picked one of my favourite guys from the pool and went Lohmann who I think fits a need, and with Rachele, adds some genuine x-factor inside our forward half. West Coast add some speed with Lord and Melbourne add Curtis to Sonsie which I absolutely love for them.

Round 3

Pick 40 Sydney - Jack Williams
Pick 41 Brisbane - Oscar Morrison
Pick 42 North Melbourne - Corey Preston
Pick 43 North Melbourne - Miller Bergman
Pick 44 Melbourne - Taj Woewodin


It gets more and more difficult late but Sydney and Brisbane go key position with Williams and Morrison. I debated between Charlie Dean and Morrison for the Lions. While Dean is probably the safer bet to contribute from day 1, I think Morrison has the greater upside as an interceptor and rebounder. North add class and versatility with Preston and Bergman and Woewodin gets to the Dees with their last selection.

Pick 45 Geelong - Toby Conway
Pick 46 Essendon - Jamieson Ballantyne
Pick 47 St Kilda - Marcus Windhager* (matched bid)
Pick 48 Western Bulldogs - Lachlan Rankin
Pick 49 Collingwood - Corey Warner


There's not a great deal to love here but Geelong get their ruckman and the Saints get their second NGA prospect. I like Ballantyne and Rankin and think they present a bit of value here, while I don't love Warner to the Pies, there's some potential upside/value late.

Pick 50 Essendon - Kaden Harbour
Pick 51 Fremantle - Eric Benning* (matched bid)
Pick 52 Collingwood - Hugh Jackson


There's a pathway for Harbour, Benning and Jackson to all have AFL careers so I think these selections are reasonable enough. Typically a stab in the dark this late in the draft.

Round 4

Pick 53 Hawthorn - Isaac Birt
Pick 54 Port Adelaide - Jase Burgoyne
Pick 55 Carlton - Charlie Molan
Pick 56 West Coast - Ethan Regan
Pick 57 North Melbourne - Isaiah Dudley
Pick 58 Adelaide - Hugh Stagg


Nothing too interesting here with Burgoyne and Regan finding their way to Port and West Coast respectively. Molan is some good value late for the Blues. Dudley to North and Stagg to Adelaide is just based on a rumour that was going around at the SA Draft Combine. Brisbane, Hawthorn, Sydney, GWS, Port Adelaide all passing selections.

Round 5

Pick 59 Collingwood - Josh Browne
Pick 60 Essendon - Cooper Murley
Pick 61 Western Bulldogs - Youseph Dib
Pick 62 St Kilda - Charlie Dean


North, Collingwood, Adelaide, Hawthorn and Carlton all passing selections.
Good rationale although North would use their last pick on Archer rather than passing.

As already mentioned, would be interested to see if we split 20 to get two picks to allow us to get Bazzo and a Wilmot/Brown.

Someone is getting a bargain with Banks as a rookie
 
LOL

For reasons only known to SA coach Tony Bamford Draper played in defence in that game, a role he's certainly unfamiliar with having played mostly mid/forward previous...not to mention the shoulder injury that saw him on the sidelines during that game, since had surgery to rectify the issue.

View attachment 1275111
I did see him kick a goal + pass another off onto a harder angle
 
Well done ModernArtillery - enjoy reading your thoughts.

Not sure about Macdonald for Carlton. Seems we're looking at someone who can split time mid and forward rather than an inside mid.

We're also taking just the one pick, so in future efforts you can wipe off our second selection.
With Sam Butler, Arlo Draper and Judson Clarke all off the board by Carlton's pick in this phantom, there's probably not too many genuine mid/forwards in that range left. Kai Lohmann could be an option, though he hasn't really had the midfield exposure and Matthew Roberts is the other. I'm a huge fan of Lohmann so I think he'd be a really good get for Carlton but I'd personally prefer MacDonald over Roberts. That's really a matter of opinion though.

Thanks for that! I'll note that for my next go at it.
ModernArtillery
Apparently we're quite keen on Kade Dittmar.

We currently have 33 on the main list, so up to 5 live picks. I'd imagine we may take Dittmar then J Burgoyne if both are still around at ~54.
I really like the fit for Port with Dittmar so I think it's a really good selection if he's still available. My guess would be Geelong and Collingwood might be your biggest threats to snag him first. You'd be a good chance though!

Also noted! Wasn't 100% sure after the Skinner addition, cheers for that!
Good rationale although North would use their last pick on Archer rather than passing.

As already mentioned, would be interested to see if we split 20 to get two picks to allow us to get Bazzo and a Wilmot/Brown.

Someone is getting a bargain with Banks as a rookie
You're 100% right and I knew that too. I'll update that in the final one. Thanks!

I think if you're targeting Bazzo + Wilmot/Brown a split is probably unlikely. I think your best bet is taking one of them with your first second rounder and then trading back into the early/mid second round using a future selection (would probably have to be a future second) to take the other.
 
I’m happy with Brisbane’s selections, simply because of the Sinn selection.

I understand the Zac Taylor selection as possibly making an strategic selection in getting two best available talents at our first two picks, but you are right that Taylor plays a position we’re pretty stacked in, and will likely be adding similar players again next year.

My concern is having a lot of smaller players rotating through our midfield in the future, outside of Rayner and Berry.
 
This was way more painful than I anticipated and I've spent way more time on this than I'd care to admit. The late picks probably aren't in perfect order but it should be reasonably close.

Round 1

Pick 1 North Melbourne - Jason Horne-Francis
Pick 2 Collingwood - Nick Daicos* (matched bid)
Pick 3 Western Bulldogs - Sam Darcy* (matched bid)
Pick 4 GWS - Josh Gibcus
Pick 5 Gold Coast - Finn Callaghan


I don't think there is anything too shocking here. The order of the bids and then GWS passing on Callaghan to select Gibcus are probably the only legitimate variables. Kall Burns spoke on Road to the Draft suggesting that the Suns would be keen to move up but not back, which suggests to me that they probably would like Callaghan. I think the Giants would love to find a trade partner to move back but finding that partner and managing to still get their guy may be a challenge.

Pick 6 Adelaide - Josh Rachele
Pick 7 Hawthorn - Josh Ward
Pick 8 Fremantle - Jye Amiss
Pick 9 Richmond - Mac Andrew
Pick 10 Fremantle - Neil Erasmus


Rachele to the Crows is seeming more and more likely with the Giants and Suns also rumoured to be interested. Gold Coast I think would be a real threat if the Giants go Callaghan. Pick 8 to Fremantle was my first real headache. If the Dockers are going to take Amiss then it makes most sense to me for them to do it with pick 8 as Richmond could be a possible landing spot for a key forward. I considered Hobbs at 9 and 10 for the Tigers and Dockers respectively but ultimately preferred Andrew and Erasmus.

Pick 11 St Kilda - Ben Hobbs
Pick 12 West Coast - Matthew Johnson
Pick 13 Essendon Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
Pick 14 Port Adelaide - Josh Goater
Pick 15 GWS - Sam Butler


I really dislike the Saints + Hobbs fit but I just couldn't leave him on the board for any longer. He's probably top 10 on draft night so this feels like a bit of a slide. Interestingly, I think the Saints going Hobbs prevents Johnson from sliding as I think West Coast would favour Hobbs if available. If that played out, I could foresee Johnson getting to the late teens. Port miss out on Wanganeen-Milera but I think an inside midfielder is a bigger long-term need anyway and think Goater could fill that. Butler is probably the first big 'reach' but I'm really starting to get on board with his skillset and think that's someone the Giants would love to add to their list.

Pick 16 Brisbane - Zac Taylor
Pick 17 Richmond - Jacob Van Rooyen
Pick 18 Sydney - Mitch Knevitt
Pick 19 Melbourne - Tyler Sonsie
Pick 20 Brisbane - Josh Sinn


I've been high on Zac Taylor for a while now and Brisbane I feel are just about the best in the business at developing these types. I know it's not a need and hurts more seeing JVR go next. I don't love the fit but I think Richmond and Melbourne would consider Taylor and so I've locked him away here. Richmond could go a number of different directions here but with options to address the midfield and utilities in the second round, I've doubled down on the key position types. Sydney get some inside midfield help and the Dees and Brisbane get some serious value late in the first round.

Round 2

Pick 21 Fremantle - Arlo Draper
Pick 22 North Melbourne - Campbell Chesser
Pick 23 St Kilda - Mitch Owens* (matched bid)
Pick 24 Hawthorn - Blake Howes
Pick 25 Geelong - Tom Brown


Draper and Chesser present great value for the Dockers and Roos. St Kilda snag Owens with the Hawks adding some athleticism to their forward half. I really like Tom Brown and considered him for Brisbane in the first round and for North at pick 22.

Pick 26 Hawthorn - Judson Clarke
Pick 27 Carlton - Connor MacDonald
Pick 28 Richmond - Darcy Wilmot
Pick 29 Richmond - Jesse Motlop
Pick 30 Richmond - Angus Sheldrick


Clarke brings some more speed and x-factor to Hawthorn's forward set up and I think MacDonald can be a key piece to Carlton's midfield in the long term. The big play here is Richmond's haul. After going Andrew and JVR in the first round, they add Wilmot, Motlop and Sheldrick to add to a draft hand that I think balances them really nicely. Wilmot is a great get at 28, Motlop has his fans and though this may be a touch early for Sheldrick, I feel it's a worthwhile gamble with the midfield depth in this draft dwindling.

Pick 31 West Coast - Brady Hough
Pick 32 Geelong - Rhett Bazzo
Pick 33 Sydney - Leek Alleer
Pick 34 GWS - Josh Fahey* (bid matched)
Pick 35 Geelong - Ronald Fejo Jr


It was around this range where I started hating every passing selection. Hough to West Coast seems reasonable enough, though I would've liked to add some more speed here. Corey Warner could be an option but I think it would be a reach in this range. There's a bit of irony in Sydney taking an under-developed intercept marking key defender after letting Aliir Aliir go last year. I wanted Sheldrick at this pick for the Swans but I'd already sent him to Richmond and I think it's too early for Jack Williams who I think is also an option. The Fahey bid comes and Geelong add some class and x-factor with Ronny Fejo.

Pick 36 Adelaide - Kai Lohmann
Pick 37 Geelong - Matthew Roberts
Pick 38 West Coast - Alastair Lord
Pick 39 Melbourne - Paul Curtis


I have no idea who Adelaide will go with this selection and low key feel like they'll pull a Hugh Stagg or something like that (nothing against Stagg, I just prefer others here). So I just went ahead and picked one of my favourite guys from the pool and went Lohmann who I think fits a need, and with Rachele, adds some genuine x-factor inside our forward half. West Coast add some speed with Lord and Melbourne add Curtis to Sonsie which I absolutely love for them.

Round 3

Pick 40 Sydney - Jack Williams
Pick 41 Brisbane - Oscar Morrison
Pick 42 North Melbourne - Corey Preston
Pick 43 North Melbourne - Miller Bergman
Pick 44 Melbourne - Taj Woewodin


It gets more and more difficult late but Sydney and Brisbane go key position with Williams and Morrison. I debated between Charlie Dean and Morrison for the Lions. While Dean is probably the safer bet to contribute from day 1, I think Morrison has the greater upside as an interceptor and rebounder. North add class and versatility with Preston and Bergman and Woewodin gets to the Dees with their last selection.

Pick 45 Geelong - Toby Conway
Pick 46 Essendon - Jamieson Ballantyne
Pick 47 St Kilda - Marcus Windhager* (matched bid)
Pick 48 Western Bulldogs - Lachlan Rankin
Pick 49 Collingwood - Corey Warner


There's not a great deal to love here but Geelong get their ruckman and the Saints get their second NGA prospect. I like Ballantyne and Rankin and think they present a bit of value here, while I don't love Warner to the Pies, there's some potential upside/value late.

Pick 50 Essendon - Kaden Harbour
Pick 51 Fremantle - Eric Benning* (matched bid)
Pick 52 Collingwood - Hugh Jackson


There's a pathway for Harbour, Benning and Jackson to all have AFL careers so I think these selections are reasonable enough. Typically a stab in the dark this late in the draft.

Round 4

Pick 53 Hawthorn - Isaac Birt
Pick 54 Port Adelaide - Jase Burgoyne
Pick 55 Carlton - Charlie Molan
Pick 56 West Coast - Ethan Regan
Pick 57 North Melbourne - Isaiah Dudley
Pick 58 Adelaide - Hugh Stagg


Nothing too interesting here with Burgoyne and Regan finding their way to Port and West Coast respectively. Molan is some good value late for the Blues. Dudley to North and Stagg to Adelaide is just based on a rumour that was going around at the SA Draft Combine. Brisbane, Hawthorn, Sydney, GWS, Port Adelaide all passing selections.

Round 5

Pick 59 Collingwood - Josh Browne
Pick 60 Essendon - Cooper Murley
Pick 61 Western Bulldogs - Youseph Dib
Pick 62 St Kilda - Charlie Dean


North, Collingwood, Adelaide, Hawthorn and Carlton all passing selections.


Zac Taylor to our club would be a really good get. I'm a Taylor fan and I'd love for us to get him.

He could potentially be a Rich replacement for us with his kicking and vision.
 
I’m happy with Brisbane’s selections, simply because of the Sinn selection.

I understand the Zac Taylor selection as possibly making an strategic selection in getting two best available talents at our first two picks, but you are right that Taylor plays a position we’re pretty stacked in, and will likely be adding similar players again next year.

My concern is having a lot of smaller players rotating through our midfield in the future, outside of Rayner and Berry.
It is a lot of similar types and you're right, Brisbane will bring in more of the same next year. Zorko's likely retirement in the next year or two may make that slightly less of an issue but in hindsight it's probably a selection I'll change in my final phantom. Despite not being overly tall, Dev Robertson and Zac Bailey are pretty strong bodies and I'd expect Dev at least to become a pure midfielder in the coming years, so I'm probably not as concerned with the size of those rotating through.
 

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