Analysis Have Carlton just overtaken the bandwagon?

[Tulip]

You guys have been rebuilding for 3-4 years now, of course you have a young list.
We have one player on our list over 30, 12 players from 25 to 29 and this is the first year of our rebuild.
By this time next year we could potential add another 5/6 first round draft picks to the team that beat the cats yesterday.
I do think you guys have a really exciting young list and plenty to look forward too.

First round draft picks =/= success. Would have thought we'd both know that. The Blues have a really good mix of old and young players, but removing foot soldier types for first rounders isn't necessarily the key to success.

 

[Old navy]

First round draft picks =/= success. Would have thought we'd both know that. The Blues have a really good mix of old and young players, but removing foot soldier types for first rounders isn't necessarily the key to success.

I said potentially add. Your right. We both should know first round draft picks don't = success.
Bolton has set up a great environment for young talent to come into.
Has already shown how important effort team work and structures can be.
But most importantly he has the players. They all absolutely love him, they play for him and trust his game plan.
This can not be underestimated.

 

[LeverPuller]

You guys have been rebuilding for 3-4 years now, of course you have a young list.
We have one player on our list over 30, 12 players from 25 to 29 and this is the first year of our rebuild.
By this time next year we could potential add another 5/6 first round draft picks to the team that beat the cats yesterday.
I do think you guys have a really exciting young list and plenty to look forward too.

We also have one 30-year-old and 11 in the 25-29 bracket; of those, at least 3 are likely to be culled. And we are considered at the end of our rebuild.

Carlton's list has got a while to go yet. People aren't seeing the forest for the trees there. It's a good start, but is it another 2004?

 

[JP2]

I think they're completely different lists. Bolton inherited a core of very talented (albeit occasionally flaky) senior players. Gibbs, Murphy, Simpson, Kruezer, Walker, Thomas: that's a pretty useful bunch to build a team around if they can stay in form. The idea that Carlton would be uncompetitive to the point of finishing below Essendon this year was always ridiculous to me for that very reason. What's more, Carlton's failures last year were quite obviously based largely on the ineptness of Malthouse's coaching. The game had passed him by since his Collingwood years, and he wasn't innovative enough to adapt to its changes. Carlton last year reminded me of us under he-who-shall-not-be-named: no discernible game plan, kicking aimlessly along the wings to no-one in particular and so on. A half-way competent coach (which Bolton certainly seems to be) was always going to get more wins on the board.

Yet for all the credit Bolton gets, let's not lose sight of the profile of the Carlton list. In the game against Geelong, he had eleven players aged 26-28, peak years for most footballers (by comparison, flag favourites Sydney had 5). Many of those players are battlers at best, but a 26 year-old battler is going to provide more short-term oomph than even the most talented 19 year-old. Moreover, the average age of the Carlton team was 25y 340d (Sydney 25y 162d), they only had 3 players 21 or younger (Sydney 4), and had an average games played of 98.4 (Sydney 104). That's the profile of a team which should be in premiership contention, not one celebrating being 5-5.

Ultimately I think Carlton have a similar problem to St Kilda: the older guys are going to prevent the club hitting rock-bottom, but the holes in the list will have to be sorted out sooner or later, and I don't think they can be plugged before the core group I mentioned earlier are put out to pasture. I'd certainly rather be in our position now than theirs.

 

[d33my]

We can at least all agree that we should savour the period of teams like Carlton being feel-good underdogs.

 

[Spirit of 26]

We have the youngest team in the league. Why is this so hard to understand?

Because I'm old.

 

[Klyntonius]

This year looks like Baileyball all over again to me. All attack, no defence and pump games into kids.
I'm concerned about Goodwin vs Bolton.

 

[LeverPuller]

This year looks like Baileyball all over again to me. All attack, no defence and pump games into kids.
I'm concerned about Goodwin vs Bolton.

But 186 aside Baileyball was tracking pretty well; hell, I would argue that the off-field stuff was what wrecked it.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

This year looks like Baileyball all over again to me. All attack, no defence and pump games into kids.
I'm concerned about Goodwin vs Bolton.

Na, the difference being we now have kids that get their hands dirty and can actually play.

Baileyball could only go so far because of Pretenderghastly. Bailey had athletes, Goodwin has footballers. Compare first round and second round picks, it will make you feel better instantly.

 

[Sir Hugh Percy]

But 186 aside Baileyball was tracking pretty well; hell, I would argue that the off-field stuff was what wrecked it.

I normally agree with you on things, but you're wearing rose-coloured glasses when looking back at Baileyball. It may not have started out that way, but we ended up being soft as butter, down-hill skiers.

I'm worried that this is headed the same way when you look at our last couple of games. The lairising, selfishness and lack of vision against Brisbane followed by not turning up to an important, supposedly 50/50, game. I hope that it's just a by-product of us being young, but I'd prefer our young guys to be learning to play disciplined, hard football like Carlton and St Kilda, than be prematurely indulging in show-boating.

We've been an up and down side for 30 years; even in the 'good' years. I'd really like that to change.

 

[markm106]

Na, the difference being we now have kids that get their hands dirty and can actually play.

Baileyball could only go so far because of Pretenderghastly. Bailey had athletes, Goodwin has footballers. Compare first round and second round picks, it will make you feel better instantly.

Agree with this. We are nailing draft picks now.

 

[Major Colvin]

Should've heard Slobinson and Whateley dribbling on about Carlton's "spirit" and brendan bolton the wonder coach. Did an average Collingwood not also beat Geelong avweek ago? There is much ******* wank talk in football now its laughable. 4 weeks ago we were being talked up, Geelong were flag favourites, every second week Hawthorn are "finished", but also rebuilding, but also going for a fourth flag. I actually heard Brad Scott last night admonishing "duckers" - as if totally oblivious to Lindsay Thomas being the worst offender. Let the media talk up Carlton or whoever, it all means absolutely zilch other than give supporters of said club a brief window of false hope.

 

[schmuttt]

Should've heard Slobinson and Whateley dribbling on about Carlton's "spirit" and brendan bolton the wonder coach. Did an average Collingwood not also beat Geelong avweek ago? There is much ******* wank talk in football now its laughable. 4 weeks ago we were being talked up, Geelong were flag favourites, every second week Hawthorn are "finished", but also rebuilding, but also going for a fourth flag. I actually heard Brad Scott last night admonishing "duckers" - as if totally oblivious to Lindsay Thomas being the worst offender. Let the media talk up Carlton or whoever, it all means absolutely zilch other than give supporters of said club a brief window of false hope.

360 will fawn over whichever mid-lower ranked team is doing well at the time of airing, that isn't anything new. We have had plenty of positive press on there the last few weeks. If we beat Hawthorn it'll be back, don't you worry.

 

[Major Colvin]

360 will fawn over whichever mid-lower ranked team is doing well at the time of airing, that isn't anything new. We have had plenty of positive press on there the last few weeks. If we beat Hawthorn it'll be back, don't you worry.

My point is I don't want it back, not until we actually achieve something. Beating Hawthorn would be substantial (and I doubt we can achieve even that) - but winning a final is what I would consider fawn-worthy.

 

[Sando22]

Crap thread, we rely on our kids to play well, they rely on their 25 and overs.

This.
They are certainly travelling ok but it's not sustainable with the current list.
Dees are heading in the right direction with a core group of blokes who'll be with us for the better part of a decade.
Simpson, Walker, Kreuzer (only 26 but extremely battered), Murphy, Daisy, Armfield have played a massive part in turning things around and while the Blues have some good kids, I feel the bulk of their improvement is due to the solid performances of some of these older blokes.

 

[schmuttt]

My point is I don't want it back, not until we actually achieve something. Beating Hawthorn would be substantial (and I doubt we can achieve even that) - but winning a final is what I would consider fawn-worthy.

Oh I agree, it shits me how the playing group seems to get way ahead of itself when we get some positive press. I'm yet to remember a game where we won after being shown some love in the media during the week.

 

[Klyntonius]

But 186 aside Baileyball was tracking pretty well; hell, I would argue that the off-field stuff was what wrecked it.

That game style, to me, would see us a finals team but never a contender for ultimate success. This is my concern with how we are playing. Shootout teams are rarely successful.

 

[Klyntonius]

Na, the difference being we now have kids that get their hands dirty and can actually play.

Baileyball could only go so far because of Pretenderghastly. Bailey had athletes, Goodwin has footballers. Compare first round and second round picks, it will make you feel better instantly.

I agree 100% that the cattle is better now than then (especially off field - Bailey would have dreamt of our current stability and resources) but unless something significant happens to improve our defensive mechanisms then I can see us being Richmond-like and never having the absolute success we all crave.

 

[Praetorian]

We just need a bit of balance, it's all lovely when we slam on goals in quick succession but we need to be able to go back to hard, contested, semi-defensive footy if things aren't falling our way.

Unfortunately with a lack of experience switching between styles of footy within a game won't happen quickly. That's just where we are at the moment.
Momentum is huge in footy and we're still having a bit of trouble halting it, it'll come soon enough though.

Edit: as for Carlton, no for me. Depth and list profile is suspect for them, but certainly Bolton is doing his job

 

[Topkent]

What a bloody ridiculous knee jerk thread

Most of the posters have covered it here but ill have a go
Carlton are being carried by Thomas, Murphy, Gibbs, Kreuzer, Armfield, Rowe, Simpson, Docherty, Everitt, Casboult, Curnow, Walker, Jamieson, Kerridge, Touhy, Cripps and Wright
The first 3 are AA players and Kreuzer, Simpson, Docherty, Walker and Cripps are high quality senior players who are in top form
Everitt, Armfield, Rowe, Curnow, Casboult are limited players who are playing at their peak.. SENIOR players

Cripps and Weitering are the only 2 kids they are playing at the moment

Lets look at the Melbourne team
Jones, Vince, Garland, Tyson, Gawn, Watts, Viney, Jetta, Garlett, Dawes, Lumumba, Grimes, Trenners, Pedo Tmac
Jones, Vince, Gawn, Watts, Viney, Garlett, Jetta are our senior players who are playing regularly
Vince Tmac and Garlett have been inconsistent this year Garletts forward pressure is down and Vince is playing a new position
Dunn, Garland, Dawes, Lumumba, Trenners, Pedo Grimes have either not played or been poxy when they have
Jones, Watts Viney Tyson and Jetta have been our only consistent senior players with Gawn who has played less than 50 games and Viney has played less than 60

Kent, Kennedy, Bugg, Frost, Wagner, Hunt, Tyson, Oliver, Brayshaw, Petracca, Omac, Gawn, Salem, Newton, ANB, Hogan have all played less than 60 games, thats a huge amount of youth to be rotating throught the side and normally when you have that many kids playing you would be a 2-8 or 3-7 side

We are being carried by our youth while Carlton is being carried by its older blokes

Drop Wagner, Kent, Oliver, Omac, Kennedy, Hunt, Petracca and replace them with Grimes, Dawes, Trenners, Lumumba, Dunn, Pedo, Michie and we would be a more consistent side with a lower ceiling

Roos is picking his team with next year in mind, I honestly dont think he is coaching for finals this year I think we are still developing which is why him and the coaching group are taking all the responsibility for poor performances this year and putting none of the pressure on the team

 

[Krujan]

This.
They are certainly travelling ok but it's not sustainable with the current list.
Dees are heading in the right direction with a core group of blokes who'll be with us for the better part of a decade.
Simpson, Walker, Kreuzer (only 26 but extremely battered), Murphy, Daisy, Armfield have played a massive part in turning things around and while the Blues have some good kids, I feel the bulk of their improvement is due to the solid performances of some of these older blokes.

Carlton's 3 best performed players so far this year have been #1 Gibbs(27yrs) #2 Docherty(22yrs) #3 Cripps(21 yrs)

 

[Topkent]

Carlton's 3 best performed players so far this year have been #1 Gibbs(27yrs) #2 Docherty(22yrs) #3 Cripps(21 yrs)

What about 3/4/5/6/7/8

 

[Krujan]

What about 3/4/5/6/7/8

I'm sure you are perfectly capable of skewing those to make Carlton "look old" without giving due credit to our younger players who have equally contributed to our recent winning form. Because if they also hadn't stepped up we'd be 0-10 instead of 5-5. Even if all our veterans were playing well it still wouldn't have been enough to win any more than 1 or 2 games.

Just like you guys, I like to focus on our young talent. Aside from Cripps & Docherty...

Weitering (18yrs) has been very good. Injury has messed up his momentum, but he's been all class. Top 10
Plowman (21yrs) has been very good since he's come in (missed the 1st few games with injury) Top 15
Charlie Curnow (18) was in our best 22 before he got injured. Top 22
Ciaran Byrne (21) is having a break-out season, getting better with every game. Future AA. Top 15-20
Kerridge (22) very solid. Top 10
Lamb (22) solid. Top 15-20

Carlton's best 22 did appear old in comparison to Melbourne last week, however White (27yrs & not in our best 22) only played because Byrne (21yrs & Best 22) missed with injury. Walker (31 & not in our best 22) wouldn't be getting a game if Charlie Curnow (18 & best 22) was not currently injured. Just switch those 2 in/out and our overall team age drops by a fair margin. Boekhorst (22yrs is also best 22) currently injured which has been a blessing in disguise somewhat as it's given Armfield (29yrd) who only remained on the list this year as depth/mentor an opportunity to resurrect his career.

If injury to some of our younger players wasn't currently a factor, Carlton's best starting 22 (playing for the future) isn't any older than Melbourne's. However, our quality youngsters are all 1st year players and you can't play all of them and expect to win many games.

Murphy (29) is injured so Graham(21yrs) comes back in this week. Also a good player IMO. See we do have some depth


Dee's have chosen to go into games a bit too young this year, even when some of their established older players have been fit to play. Can't have it both ways talking up your young talent when you win, then complaining about being 'too young' when you lose, because that's what happens when you have a lot of inexperienced players in the team. It's up to the older players to carry the load when the kids are having their down days.

Regarding the Dees being too young ATM, ask yourselves are the Dees better or worse off if they play most or all of Grimes/Dunne/Dawes/Prince/Garland/Trengove etc every week (when fit) and possibly scrape into the finals this year or getting as many games as possible into OMac, Harmes, Stretch, Oliver etc this year and be a genuine finals threat next year?

 

[Topkent]

I'm sure you are perfectly capable of skewing those to make Carlton "look old" without giving due credit to our younger players who have equally contributed to our recent winning form. Because if they also hadn't stepped up we'd be 0-10 instead of 5-5. Even if all our veterans were playing well it still wouldn't have been enough to win any more than 1 or 2 games.

Just like you guys, I like to focus on our young talent. Aside from Cripps & Docherty...

Weitering (18yrs) has been very good. Injury has messed up his momentum, but he's been all class. Top 10
Plowman (21yrs) has been very good since he's come in (missed the 1st few games with injury) Top 15
Charlie Curnow (18) was in our best 22 before he got injured. Top 22
Ciaran Byrne (21) is having a break-out season, getting better with every game. Future AA. Top 15-20
Kerridge (22) very solid. Top 10
Lamb (22) solid. Top 15-20

Carlton's best 22 did appear old in comparison to Melbourne last week, however White (27yrs & not in our best 22) only played because Byrne (21yrs & Best 22) missed with injury. Walker (31 & not in our best 22) wouldn't be getting a game if Charlie Curnow (18 & best 22) was not currently injured. Just switch those 2 in/out and our overall team age drops by a fair margin. Boekhorst (22yrs is also best 22) currently injured which has been a blessing in disguise somewhat as it's given Armfield (29yrd) who only remained on the list this year as depth/mentor an opportunity to resurrect his career.

If injury to some of our younger players wasn't currently a factor, Carlton's best starting 22 (playing for the future) isn't any older than Melbourne's. However, our quality youngsters are all 1st year players and you can't play all of them and expect to win many games.

Murphy (29) is injured so Graham(21yrs) comes back in this week. Also a good player IMO. See we do have some depth


Dee's have chosen to go into games a bit too young this year, even when some of their established older players have been fit to play. Can't have it both ways talking up your young talent when you win, then complaining about being 'too young' when you lose, because that's what happens when you have a lot of inexperienced players in the team. It's up to the older players to carry the load when the kids are having their down days.

Regarding the Dees being too young ATM, ask yourselves are the Dees better or worse off if they play most or all of Grimes/Dunne/Dawes/Prince/Garland etc every week (when fit) and possibly scrape into the finals this year or getting as many games as possible into OMac, Harmes, Stretch, Oliver etc this year and be a genuine finals threat next year?

Your kidding yourself if you think your wins this year arent on the back of your senior core, dont get me wrong Boltons done a fantastic job and has the team playing as a unit and more consistent that the Dees but your senior blokes are a major part of it

Weitering, Docherty and Cripps are all class no doubt, Curnow has played 4 games and would be very inconsistent this year.. he wouldnt make you a better team
Lamb and Plowman are averagin 12 and 13 touches ... they are just getting by at the moment
Armfield Walker and White have made you better this year, you can replace them with kids if you want but that doesnt make you better this year which is what this is about
Your senior players are better than ours thats a fact, Jones and Vince are good and Dunn was till this year but the rest arent much chop
Carlton have kids sure but Melbourne has played the youngest side in 9 of the 10 rounds and we will be inconsistent as a result
Long term we are better off playing some younger blokes but I think we all agree we could play a couple more experienced blokes to help with the teams week to week effort

In fact we have moved Jones and Vince to the backline this year to give the kids more responsibility

 

[Krujan]

Your kidding yourself if you think your wins this year arent on the back of your senior core, dont get me wrong Boltons done a fantastic job and has the team playing as a unit and more consistent that the Dees but your senior blokes are a major part of it

Weitering, Docherty and Cripps are all class no doubt, Curnow has played 4 games and would be very inconsistent this year.. he wouldnt make you a better team
Lamb and Plowman are averagin 12 and 13 touches ... they are just getting by at the moment
Armfield Walker and White have made you better this year, you can replace them with kids if you want but that doesnt make you better this year which is what this is about
Your senior players are better than ours thats a fact, Jones and Vince are good and Dunn was till this year but the rest arent much chop
Carlton have kids sure but Melbourne has played the youngest side in 9 of the 10 rounds and we will be inconsistent as a result
Long term we are better off playing some younger blokes but I think we all agree we could play a couple more experienced blokes to help with the teams week to week effort

In fact we have moved Jones and Vince to the backline this year to give the kids more responsibility

Plowman has been playing as a KP defender. 12 possies & 4 marks per game isn't "just getting by" for his role. He's been very good the last few weeks.
Lamb plays as a defensive forward. 13 possies a game is par. He's been much better than his stats suggest.
Walker has played 1 decent game this year. Has been absolute rubbish every other game.

I don't believe you're giving your senior players enough credit regarding their capabilities. Just going by last season our senior players & leaders would have been ranked dead last as far as quality goes. Certainly well behind Melbourne's. I don't think anyone (including myself) expected Gibbs & Simpson & Armfield for example to be having career best seasons this year. Just goes to show how much a new/better coach can do for firing up and bringing out the best in the older blokes.

Dees really need NJones & Tyson to star like they did a couple of years ago, TMac to find the form of last year would also help. I know a lot of Dees fans don't rate them, but Grimes and Trengove at their best are both very good players that have leadership experience. Also Dawes as a 2nd KP or decoy forward would make the Dees a bit less predictable going forward. I know Hogan is a gun and all, but you can't go to him with nearly every i50 entry.

Anyway good luck with the rest of the season and who knows we might even be playing each other with an improbable but mathematically possible finals berth on the line in Rd22. I'd enjoy that a lot more than playing for the Kreuzer Cup again, that's for sure.