Vic Predict the outcome of the 2018 Victorian State Election

[Jascave]

John Kennedy and Hawthorn-a perfect match.


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[ClokesShankedIt]

ABC website giving Hawthorn as a Labor gain.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/guide/hawt/

Perfect. The sitting member was a LINO who cucked out at the sight of anything of importance. A conservative who conserved nothing. He can **** right off

 

[Hawk Dork]

John Kennedy and Hawthorn-a perfect match.


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Was he in a retirement village
I think I heard a 78 year old ????

 

[eth-dog]

It is amazing Labor have won Hawthorn.

Not sure a less Labor seat exists - there isn't even a pocket of deplorables for the people of Hawthorn to worry about

Malvern has never been outside the Liberal's control.

 

[Pessimistic]

I think that is a misreading of the result, seats like Albert Park and Prahran are trending towards the Liberals, but we need to remember that this election was a perfect storm of a good performing state government with the shitstorm over the change in leader from Turnbull to Morrison. Prahran has long been two halves, the northern half (South Yarra) has traditionally been more conservative voting than the southern half (Prahran/Windsor) with the seat being more Liberal than Malvern. Hawthorn's demographics are not changing as much as the Liberals want to make out, Hawthorn has long had a large renter population and just as we saw across a number of seats, the booths that recorded the largest swings were the more established wealthier booths, the Liberals were smashed by their electoral base.

Yep, the wealthiest leafiest booths swung the most 10% or more, the overall now being closer to areas where apartments have sprung up

Apartment blocks could have over ten times the density by the way

 

[QuietB]

Malvern has never been outside the Liberal's control.

Even it has Chadstone - remarkably closer to working class than Canterbury

 

[Pessimistic]

Even it has Chadstone - remarkably closer to working class than Canterbury

I live in Canterbury. I never dreamed I’d be 1/150th of a margin. Almost went for mischief on the upper hous ticket too.

 

[Bombermania]

Yep, the wealthiest leafiest booths swung the most 10% or more, the overall now being closer to areas where apartments have sprung up

Apartment blocks could have over ten times the density by the way

A majority of apartments across Hawthorn would date from the last century mostly 1960s and 70s. There have been a few new apartments built and they are generally more expensive than the older blocks.

 

[imadodgyumpire]

I remember watchin the ABC 2010 election coverage. Daniel Andrews was the Labor representative. He was fat with an arrogant demeanour, failing to put a positive spin on Labour's loss. He wasn't even considered a potential leader to replace John Brumby at the time. Now he's the Premier of Victoria having just won a second election. Wow.

 

[Jascave]

It’ll be interesting to see how the Coalition will respond to the election results when they do the review.


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[mighty tiges]

All seats in the Legislative Assembly have been declared.

 

[Pessimistic]

A majority of apartments across Hawthorn would date from the last century mostly 1960s and 70s. There have been a few new apartments built and they are generally more expensive than the older blocks.

Yes there’s not much difference between the price of a modest house and a well appointed apartment in a new block
There’s more than a few going up by the way.
What Im saying is the 'posher' areas are increasing population perhaps tenfold when 'luxury' apartments go up. but the people are still high income earners as the apartments aren't that much cheaper than a standalone house.
It introduces more mortgage stress into older areas though, which notoriously produces swinging voters

 

[Benny78]

All seats in the Legislative Assembly have been declared.

View attachment 592185

Wowee all bloody asians/chinese voting liberal. Only 3 seats from white boomers along the bay.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Antony Green‏Verified account @AntonyGreenABC
Two-party preferred swing to Labor in the six south-east rail seats (Bentleigh to Bass ) was 9.3%!!!

 

[RupieDupie]

Fortunately for The Federal Liberal Party <spit> this was only due to State issues

 

[eth-dog]

Fortunately for The Federal Liberal Party <spit> this was only due to State issues

Nah. Canberra was a factor, if it was purely state issues seats like urwood, Hawthorn, etc wouldn't have flipped

 

[Hornberger]

I wish the VEC would conduct full preference distribution counts in seats like Footscray and Williamstown, which are really Labor - Green contests and not Labor - Liberal. This would show Labor true margin of victory.

In Footscray Labor won 2PP 78/22. In a 3CP count, Greens finish second and in the true 2CP count, Labor probably beat the Greens 70/30 or 65/35.

 

[Bont2Bruce]

I wish the VEC would conduct full preference distribution counts in seats like Footscray and Williamstown, which are really Labor - Green contests and not Labor - Liberal. This would show Labor true margin of victory.

In Footscray Labor won 2PP 78/22. In a 3CP count, Greens finish second and in the true 2CP count, Labor probably beat the Greens 70/30 or 65/35.

 

[Doss]

Nah. Canberra was a factor, if it was purely state issues seats like urwood, Hawthorn, etc wouldn't have flipped

You missed his sarcasm I suspect.

 

[Hornberger]

I am not sure how that relates to my previous post.

The VEC doesn't perform preference distribution if one candidate wins 50% of the primary votes (as happened in Williamstown and Footscray).

They do an indicative 2PP Labor - Liberal count. But this doesn't tell you what the true margin of victory in these seats, as they are really Labor - Green 2CP contests.

 

[Bont2Bruce]

I am not sure how that relates to my previous post.

The VEC doesn't perform preference distribution if one candidate wins 50% of the primary votes (as happened in Williamstown and Footscray).

They do an indicative 2PP Labor - Liberal count. But this doesn't tell you what the true margin of victory in these seats, as they are really Labor - Green 2CP contests.

OK I get where you are coming from now. I thought that the most recent VEC update had included full preference distributions (as per the tweet) but you are correct that seats decided on first preferences still don't have preference distribution other than Labor/LNP.

 

[nobbyiscool]

Antony Green‏Verified account @AntonyGreenABC
Two-party preferred swing to Labor in the six south-east rail seats (Bentleigh to Bass ) was 9.3%!!!

NO SKYRAIL!

 

[Jascave]

I remember watchin the ABC 2010 election coverage. Daniel Andrews was the Labor representative. He was fat with an arrogant demeanour, failing to put a positive spin on Labour's loss. He wasn't even considered a potential leader to replace John Brumby at the time. Now he's the Premier of Victoria having just won a second election. Wow.

If a person was watching the ABC 2010 Victorian state election night coverage declared that the Labor representative on the panel, Daniel Andrews would go on to win for Labor 2 straight elections by the end of the decade and be probably one of the best premiers Victoria has had since World War 2 and consignthe Coalition to at least 10 years or more on the opposition benches in parliament, that person would be laughed at by all and sundry.


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[Doss]

Yeah, when I first laid eyes on Andrews I thought he was hopeless. Amusing to look back at now.

 

[Bollox]

...and in one of the worlds truly great coincidences of the 21st century, after a long delay this scandal just happens to go public immediately AFTER an election.
Obviously nothing to see here. No way political imperatives define Vic police.

It truly is another world in Victoria.
Are you even allowed to suggest collusion/corruption ??....or would that get you thrown in the Moe Gulag ?