Opinion Can Dustin Martin be the GOAT? (Answer: no)

[Captain_Bender]

The fact remains nobody will ever find a strong Martin final when he was aged 18-25 or when he was in his 30s. We will never find an elite consistent season outside of the period he was aged 25-29. We will only be able to locate one good season in his 30s, 2023 as a forward flanker - and even that season was wildly inconsistent (almost no coaches votes until the last 8 or 10 games of the season. A large cold patch and then a hot streak. Many of his seasons were like this).

The GOAT contenders were simply better for longer, dominant across whole seasons many times, had strong finals across their whole long careers (in all sorts of contexts) and have mountainous accolades tallies both at league-wide and club level.

This is absolutely in line with neutral opinion and any sort of data exercise that objectively measures the greats overall career contributions.

There is unsurprisingly a pocket of fanatical Richmond supporters who disagree. They will never convince the masses to side with them. Wanting something to confirm your beliefs doesn't make it true.

Sounds a lot like Ablett Junior, not good seasons while he was young or any when he was old, as soon as he got injured in 2014 he was done

 

[doppleganger]

Truth be told I don't even know where to find these player ratings, or how they are calculated.

They really are just another supercoach. A different algorithm and weighting to try and reflect impact on a game instead of simply being busy.

MR loves em, because they show how impressive Dusty's finals were.

The problem is that they also show that Dusty's career wasn't as impactful as a player like Sloane, let alone the real top end like Danger, GAJ, Pendles and Bont.

Hence he puts all his effort in pumping up finals as being more important than actual career output.

2 BnFs and only 5 seasons with a player rating above 14 = miles off GOAT.

Dusty was the best finals player of the 2010s, and perhaps Richmond's 3rd best player of the 2010s.

 

[Chronz]

They really are just another supercoach. A different algorithm and weighting to try and reflect impact on a game instead of simply being busy.

MR loves em, because they show how impressive Dusty's finals were.

The problem is that they also show that Dusty's career wasn't as impactful as a player like Sloane, let alone the real top end like Danger, GAJ, Pendles and Bont.

Hence he puts all his effort in pumping up finals as being more important than actual career output.

2 BnFs and only 5 seasons with a player rating above 14 = miles off GOAT.

Dusty was the best finals player of the 2010s, and perhaps Richmond's 3rd best player of the 2010s.

That's our good Tigs mate MR's modus operandi. Unload pages and pages of selectively biased stats to make Dusty seem like an undisputed GOAT. He probably wasn't expecting someone to come along and do the hard yards collecting the full scope of statistical data, which shows that isn't the case. Good job.

 

[RUNVS]

That's our good Tigs mate MR's modus operandi. Unload pages and pages of selectively biased stats to make Dusty seem like an undisputed GOAT. He probably wasn't expecting someone to come along and do the hard yards collecting the full scope of statistical data, which shows that isn't the case. Good job.

Yes, it is really good work.

Does anyone else even know where to find these stats as I have no clue?

 

[Chronz]

Yes, it is really good work.

Does anyone else even know where to find these stats as I have no clue?

AFL Player Statistics

AFL player statistics.

www.wheeloratings.com

can search for individual players and get pretty much all data such as Supercoach and player ratings etc.

 

[doppleganger]

That's our good Tigs mate MR's modus operandi. Unload pages and pages of selectively biased stats to make Dusty seem like an undisputed GOAT. He probably wasn't expecting someone to come along and do the hard yards collecting the full scope of statistical data, which shows that isn't the case. Good job.

Hardly hard yards.

Instead of ignoring 95% of Dusty's career you just include it all.

But if isolating to just the 2010s finals, like MR loves to do, Dusty is clearly the best performed player.

Overall career he doesn't measure up.

GAJ and Buddy are the only two players (who debuted in 21st century) who are worthy of being included in a GOAT discussion.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Hardly hard yards.

Instead of ignoring 95% of Dusty's career you just include it all.

But if isolating to just the 2010s finals, like MR loves to do, Dusty is clearly the best performed player.

Overall career he doesn't measure up.

GAJ and Buddy are the only two players (who debuted in 21st century) who are worthy of being included in a GOAT discussion.

Why are their finals performances not as good as Dusty's if they are better than him?

Why is it Dusty has the best season of any of them(2017?)

Both those players have strong claims Dusty cannot match. But Dusty also has strong claims they cannot match.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Meow and Dopple obliterating poor old Meteoric Rise. Your biased and arbitrary statistical data gets blown apart by the full picture that is bought to light by these two. Very eye opening data at that.

Captivating, lol.

You forgot to show how any of it disproves anything I have posted.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Hardly hard yards.

Instead of ignoring 95% of Dusty's career you just include it all.

But if isolating to just the 2010s finals, like MR loves to do, Dusty is clearly the best performed player.

Overall career he doesn't measure up.

GAJ and Buddy are the only two players (who debuted in 21st century) who are worthy of being included in a GOAT discussion.

Be nice to hear you comment about the 6 seasons 2015-16-17-18-19-20 where according to Brownlow votes & Coaches votes Dusty ended each year as the form player in the AFL.

 

[doppleganger]

Why are their finals performances not as good as Dusty's if they are better than him?

Most of GAJ and Buddy's best finals occurred before your player ratings even started in 2012.

Buddy kicking 7 in an EF in 2007 or 8 in 2008 QF don't have a "player ratings".

GAJ having multiple 34 and 2 goals finals, and a 40 disposal final were also before "player ratings".

Why is it Dusty has the best season of any of them(2017?)

He doesn't, if you use player ratings.

20.86 was Dusty's player ratings (his solitary season above 17).

GAJ had 4 seasons above 20, his best was 22.21.

And that doesn't include 2007-11 because player ratings didn't exist.

Both those players have strong claims Dusty cannot match. But Dusty also has strong claims they cannot match.

Yes best finals player of 2010s is Dusty.

GOAT claims rest with GAJ and Buddy.

 

[doppleganger]

Be nice to hear you comment about the 6 seasons 2015-16-17-18-19-20 where according to Brownlow votes & Coaches votes Dusty ended each year as the form player in the AFL.

"Form" player

Having a good month in August isn't more important than having a good month in June.

2017 was the only season where Dusty was judged the best player by coaches and umpires, and reflected in your precious player ratings.

Outside of that he had a couple of top 10 years, but then fell away to a top50 player.

 

[Cdog71]

Credibility LOL.

You do realise that it is another poster who spams the thread with player ratings stats as "evidence" of his greatness.

The same ratings detail that Dusty's overall career player rating average is lower than Rory Sloane (and a fair way behind the stars of recent era like GAJ, Pendles, Danger, Bont).

So yes, Dusty was the best finals player of the 2010s, but in terms of actual overall career impact is not at the level of the 2010s compatriots.

Dusty had a single outstanding season, 2017 where his rating was off the charts 20+, but apart from that wasn't a standout and in total only had 5 seasons where his player rating avg was above 14.

Sloane had 9 seasons where his player ratings was above 14.

So yes, according to player ratings Sloane was consistently better than Dusty, and Dusty just had a little spike.

Sloane is a better player than Dustin Martin?
Fmd

 

[doppleganger]

Sloane is a better player than Dustin Martin?
Fmd

According to player ratings he was.

You know how MR loves informing everyone how player ratings are the best measure of impact on games, and Dusty is unrivaled in terms of impact on finals according to player ratings.

Well the exact same ratings confirm Sloane had a better overall career rating.

Perhaps you need to have a chat with MR and have him reconsider his Dusty fluff approach, player ratings don't seem to think he was that good.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Its amazing how you are too silly to realise that our ACTUAL arch rivals, who have caused us just as much finals annoyance as the tigers along with the fact that we DIDNT have three decades of absolute dominance in home and away football against them, have dogs in this fight too, and the person you are arguing with has no problem nominating players from that team as possible greatest players as well.

At some stage that may sink into your consciousness instead of you having to fall back on this stupid ‘2020 broke them’ like you’re living in communist Russia or something

It’s football mate.

If you’re getting ‘broken’ by something, or you believe people are getting broken by it, you have bigger problems to worry about than where a player rates in the grand scheme of things.

Me thinks you protesteth too much.


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[RUNVS]

Me thinks you protesteth too much.


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Given the state of your spelling, I am not sure you think that much.

 

[PhatBoy]

Me thinks you protesteth too much.


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Sure. Methinks you making something up and just saying ‘this is the truth because I said so despite not really applying much logic, and football is more important than life itself’ is pretty stupid.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Bingo.

And I used it to compare players of the same tier and era - ones who all had seriously impressive peaks. And no it wasn't exhaustive as some like Swan could've been looked at, but I wanted to include a couple of very consistent current midfielders as well. That was the whole topic, along with elite longevity, after all...

If you come out 9th on the consistency/longevity measure it doesn't mean you were inconsistent. You just weren't quite as consistent as the other players looked at, ones whose best and worst games weren't as far apart, and whose careers produced good quality football more often/deeper into their 30s. That's it. They're all fair comments and the data backs it up, much like asking any footy head on the street would. How destructive/high a peak was is another thing, and Dusty - especially in those 3 finals series - was super in that category.

If Boak and Pendlebury play 2-more years and they are really crap, and even includes some seconds football, they will continue to climb up your ‘elite consistency’ rankings system.

And Hugh McCluggage … in the last 6-years with Lions as a constant top-4 team… hjs B&F results are :

3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 4th

And in the same period he has 4 x AA squad nominations.

Zero recognition for any of those achievements.

Which isn’t unusual that’s how you designed your system given Martin finished top-3 in Richmond’s best and fairest 9 times and made the AA squad 8 times.

More holes in this system than a Swiss cheese factory.


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[Noidnadroj]

But how many more than 6 consecutive seasons(a whole prime period for most players) would you expect a player to finish each year as the form player of the comp before you would recognise the excellence of the achievement? There may not be one other player in the 128 year history of the AFL that has done that.

And just to check - does finals performance mean anything to you? If so, how important is it?

Martin hasn’t had any lineball AA final team selections fall his way. 8 x squad selections and made the team 4 times. Could’ve easily made the team another couple of times.

GAJ, Buddy and Danger have had most lineball calls go their way. GAJ made it in 2014 with only 14 games (injured in his 15th). Yes, he was superb when fit … but he missed more than a third of the season so a fortunate selection.

Buddy got the nod in 2010 from just 17 games. 64 goals and 7 goal assists. Even more fortunate in 2018. Just 18 games and 57 goals. And he was made captain.


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[Noidnadroj]

Have said many times, same coaches who vote in the B & F essentially voted Martin the best Richmond player in the coaches MVP 8 seasons. The B & F at Richmond is designed to reward players for adhering to their role within the Richmond system. It is also not calibrated to fully reward someone as good as Dusty's best performances, which will receive 5 votes - the same as a lesser player's best performances. The Coaches votes are a much better guide to what we are discussing.

Martin’s B&F record is hardly chopped liver .. 9 x top-3 finishes. Ablett senior won one and Matthew Lloyd never won one…. Both all-timers.


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[doppleganger]

If Boak and Pendlebury play 2-more years and they are really crap, and even includes some seconds football, they will continue to climb up your ‘elite consistency’ rankings system.

Pendles even in his last two seasons he has got votes for Norm Smith and has similar player ratings to McCluggage and Dusty circa 2015-16.

Sure is down from his 2010-16 peak, but 5th and 6th in BnF and player ratings of 13 are great for most players.

And Hugh McCluggage … in the last 6-years with Lions as a constant top-4 team… hjs B&F results are :

3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 4th

And in the same period he has 4 x AA squad nominations.

Zero recognition for any of those achievements.

Hugh is a consistent solid clubman.

Don't see many Brisbane fans trying to claim he was the best player of the 2020s!!

Which isn’t unusual that’s how you designed your system given Martin finished top-3 in Richmond’s best and fairest 9 times and made the AA squad 8 times.

Cute

Pendles has 14 top 3 (in much stronger teams than Dusty) and 11 AA squads.

Dusty only had 3 top 3 finishes in teams that won a finals, Pendles did it 8 times.

Which is reflected in Pendles having 8 seasons above a player rating avg of 14 (would be 10+ if ratings started earlier) and Dusty just has 5.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Only with a grain of salt as most players don't get the opportunity to play in easy Grand Final victories. Easy to look great when your side is pumping the other.

Let’s review scoreboard impact in finals versus H&A output those same years … all finals without removing any due to injury or losses etc…and all relative as we are comparing the players within the same years, so if they are old in finals they were the same in H&A. I’ve also included modern players largely playing the same opponents as Martin was.

Goals and goal assists in finals versus the same metrics in H&A - just who was able to execute against the competitions best defensive teams in finals?

Pendles : down 39.8%
GAJ: down 38.6%
Jeremy Cameron: down 25.3%
T Greene: down 21.3%
Judd: down 21.0%
Stevie J: down 19.0%
Buddy: down 16.3%
Danger: down 14.0%
Goodes: down 6.1%
Bont: down 5.1%
Degoey: down 4.4%
I Smith: down 3.6%

Bartel: up 1.1%
Chapman: up 3.0%
Selwood: up 10.9%

Martin: up 43.9%


This emphasises how hard it is to influence the scoreboard in finals. I mean Pendles had what’s described as a great final series in 2011 .. he didn’t kick a goal or have a single goal assist. GAJ had just 2 x goal assists in the entire 2010 finals series with no goals.

Even some players with reputations as terrific finals players like Stevie J and DeGoey haven’t been able to match their H&A output in finals.

It’s bloody hard to do… except for one player.


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[RUNVS]

Let’s review scoreboard impact in finals versus H&A output those same years … all finals without removing any due to injury or losses etc…and all relative as we are comparing the players within the same years, so if they are old in finals they were the same in H&A. I’ve also included modern players largely playing the same opponents as Martin was.

Goals and goal assists in finals versus the same metrics in H&A - just who was able to execute against the competitions best defensive teams in finals?

Pendles : down 39.8%
GAJ: down 38.6%
Jeremy Cameron: down 25.3%
T Greene: down 21.3%
Judd: down 21.0%
Stevie J: down 19.0%
Buddy: down 16.3%
Danger: down 14.0%
Goodes: down 6.1%
Bont: down 5.1%
Degoey: down 4.4%
I Smith: down 3.6%

Bartel: up 1.1%
Chapman: up 3.0%
Selwood: up 10.9%

Martin: up 43.9%


This emphasises how hard it is to influence the scoreboard in finals. I mean Pendles had what’s described as a great final series in 2011 .. he didn’t kick a goal or have a single goal assist. GAJ had just 2 x goal assists in the entire 2010 finals series with no goals.

Even some players with reputations as terrific finals players like Stevie J and DeGoey haven’t been able to match their H&A output in finals.

It’s bloody hard to do… except for one player.


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Again, pretty easy to do when your team wins massively in Grand Finals.

 

[Noidnadroj]

The two matches you highlighted are the ONLY two examples of dominant Dusty finals when Richmond were in jeopardy. And the Port one is the only match where it was so close to the end, that you could definitively say he was the difference. The Geelong GF is fair enough too because he got the team going. The second half Richmond had about 9 of the best 11 players though, so it depends whether you think that would have happened or not anyway.

The other finals where Dusty excelled, Richmond were dominant anyway. It doesn't take credit away, but there is a striking lack of strong Dusty finals in situations where the match was close or Richmond lost. He had one good final in seasons where Richmond weren't the premier!

Yet scoreboard impact in finals versus H&A output:

Ablett 2.15 in H&A down to 1.32 in finals.

Martin 1.95 up to 2.81 in finals.

All finals, all years, all ages … compared against themselves and their H&A output.

GAJ played finals in 10 seasons and didn’t have a single one where his scoreboard impact in finals was better than in H&A.

In finals Martin’s scoreboard impact was 43.9% more than H&A, and GAJ’s was 38.6% less. The only modern day great I’ve found so far who was worse than GAJ in regards to scoreboard impact was Pendles at minus 39.8%.

I’m not sure why GAJ and Pendles stopped impacting the scoreboard so badly in finals. It’s a weird anomaly for a couple of greats.


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[Noidnadroj]

Yes.

I mean playing really well when your team is smashing another team is fine, good even, but the real test of a player is in the really close games or the games where your team is being smashed. Being smashed especially shows real mental strength on behalf of said player who is able to play their best even when they know there is no chance of victory.

You mean like 2010 in Martin’s debut season when he came 6th in the B&F and had 425 disposals and 101 clearances when Tigers won 6 games and finished second bottom?

Or did you mean like 2011, in his second season when Martin came 3rd in Richmond’s B&F, averaged 22 disposals and had 53 goals and goal assists and got 12 Brownlow votes in a team that won 8 games and finished 12th?

Or 2014 when he made the AA squad, came 2nd in the B&F, had 560 disposals and 45 goals and goal assists in a team that went 11-12 for the season?

Or 2016 when he made AA, won the B&F, came 3rd in the Brownlow, 3rd in coaches votes in a team that went 8-14 and finished 13th?

Or maybe 2023, when he came 2nd in B&F, made AA squad, had 472 disposals and 40 goals and goal assists in a team that finished 13th.

He was drafted to a laughing stock of a club and has had many terrific years when Richmond have struggled. Thanks for bringing this to our attention.



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[RUNVS]

You mean like 2010 in Martin’s debut season when he came 6th in the B&F and had 425 disposals and 101 clearances when Tigers won 6 games and finished second bottom?

Or did you mean like 2011, in his second season when Martin came 3rd in Richmond’s B&F, averaged 22 disposals and had 53 goals and goal assists and got 12 Brownlow votes in a team that won 8 games and finished 12th?

Or 2014 when he made the AA squad, came 2nd in the B&F, had 560 disposals and 45 goals and goal assists in a team that went 11-12 for the season?

Or 2016 when he made AA, won the B&F, came 3rd in the Brownlow, 3rd in coaches votes in a team that went 8-14 and finished 13th?

Or maybe 2023, when he came 2nd in B&F, made AA squad, had 472 disposals and 40 goals and goal assists in a team that finished 13th.

He was drafted to a laughing stock of a club and has had many terrific years when Richmond have struggled. Thanks for bringing this to our attention.



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What a weird way of saying this. I can't think of many people who use the disposal totals over the course of a season to try and prove their point.