Opinion Can Dustin Martin be the GOAT? (Answer: no)

[Noidnadroj]

Pendles even in his last two seasons he has got votes for Norm Smith and has similar player ratings to McCluggage and Dusty circa 2015-16.

Sure is down from his 2010-16 peak, but 5th and 6th in BnF and player ratings of 13 are great for most players.

Hugh is a consistent solid clubman.

Don't see many Brisbane fans trying to claim he was the best player of the 2020s!!

Cute

Pendles has 14 top 3 (in much stronger teams than Dusty) and 11 AA squads.

Dusty only had 3 top 3 finishes in teams that won a finals, Pendles did it 8 times.

Which is reflected in Pendles having 8 seasons above a player rating avg of 14 (would be 10+ if ratings started earlier) and Dusty just has 5.

Hahaha … Martin is criticised for only being good in great teams. And now he’s criticised for finish top-3 in the B&F in 6 x seasons where Tigers didn’t win a final.

What’s it gonna be? You want him to be good in good teams or good in poor teams? Pick your poison.

And Pendlebury’s B&F consistency is amazing. Better than anyone in history I’m sure. But 9 x top-3 finishes by Martin would stack up very well to most.

9 x top-3 B&F finishes and 8 x AA squad selections points to elite consistency.


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[RUNVS]

If AA selection included finals he’d have 5.

and if I had a time machine I would be a millionaire.

 

[doppleganger]

If AA selection included finals he’d have 5. If player MVP voting included finals he’d be a 3-time winner, as he was unanimous as best player in the game after the 2017, 2019 and 2020 finals series.

LoL - undisputed, unanimous you Dusty Tuggers love hyperbole.

So his standing in the game actually suffers because a couple of major awards used to judge individual performance don’t actually include the most important games of the year.

Please, he has 3 norm smiths and 3 Gary Ayers medals which elevates his standing.

He has never been the best player in the game outside of 2017, he has only been the best player at Richmond in two seasons for fecks sake (and they include finals)

He is a guy who had 3 good finals series that topped off 3 of his 4 top seasons of quality footy.

Outside of those years, he wasn't that impactful as evidenced by having a lower career avg player rating then Rory Sloane.

 

[RUNVS]

He has never been the best player in the game outside of 2017, he has only been the best player at Richmond in two seasons for fecks sake (and they include finals)

Yep, even Daisy Thomas was considered the best player in the game for a short period of time.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

"Form" player

Having a good month in August isn't more important than having a good month in June.

2017 was the only season where Dusty was judged the best player by coaches and umpires, and reflected in your precious player ratings.

Outside of that he had a couple of top 10 years, but then fell away to a top50 player.

On average Dusty's hot form starts around the start of June each year for 6 years friend, but you may have missed that.

Just to be clear from when he got serious on average at the start of June in each of those 6 seasons he played 78 home & away games and 13 finals. He averaged 1.55 votes per match over those 91 games on a 3-2-1 basis.

That actually went on for 6 consecutive seasons where he has more or less finished each season as the form player in the AFL, judged over a period of 13 home & away matches on average + finals.

Your last comment about it was foolish so let's just leave that on record.

 

[RUNVS]

On average Dusty's hot form starts around the start of June each year for 6 years friend, but you may have missed that.

Which isn't good enough. Believe it or not the first 12 weeks of a season matter.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

LoL - undisputed, unanimous you Dusty Tuggers love hyperbole.

Please, he has 3 norm smiths and 3 Gary Ayers medals which elevates his standing.

He has never been the best player in the game outside of 2017, he has only been the best player at Richmond in two seasons for fecks sake (and they include finals)

He is a guy who had 3 good finals series that topped off 3 of his 4 top seasons of quality footy.

Outside of those years, he wasn't that impactful as evidenced by having a lower career avg player rating then Rory Sloane.

We can now see why you are called doppleganger. Thre are two of you. One who mocks others for quoting player ratings....and the other who routinely quotes player ratings.

 

[JackOutback]

Let’s review scoreboard impact in finals versus H&A output those same years … all finals without removing any due to injury or losses etc…and all relative as we are comparing the players within the same years, so if they are old in finals they were the same in H&A. I’ve also included modern players largely playing the same opponents as Martin was.

Goals and goal assists in finals versus the same metrics in H&A - just who was able to execute against the competitions best defensive teams in finals?

Pendles : down 39.8%
GAJ: down 38.6%
Jeremy Cameron: down 25.3%
T Greene: down 21.3%
Judd: down 21.0%
Stevie J: down 19.0%
Buddy: down 16.3%
Danger: down 14.0%
Goodes: down 6.1%
Bont: down 5.1%
Degoey: down 4.4%
I Smith: down 3.6%

Bartel: up 1.1%
Chapman: up 3.0%
Selwood: up 10.9%

Martin: up 43.9%


This emphasises how hard it is to influence the scoreboard in finals. I mean Pendles had what’s described as a great final series in 2011 .. he didn’t kick a goal or have a single goal assist. GAJ had just 2 x goal assists in the entire 2010 finals series with no goals.

Even some players with reputations as terrific finals players like Stevie J and DeGoey haven’t been able to match their H&A output in finals.

It’s bloody hard to do… except for one player.


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That’s a funny way of saying he was a pretty average H&A player.

 

[doppleganger]

Hahaha … Martin is criticised for only being good in great teams. And now he’s criticised for finish top-3 in the B&F in 6 x seasons where Tigers didn’t win a final.

That is pumping up Pendles.

Coming 2nd to a red hot Dane Swan (and actually beating him when Swan won a brownlow in 2011) is again highlighting how good Pendles was fecking 15 years ago.

What’s it gonna be? You want him to be good in good teams or good in poor teams? Pick your poison.

Be good if he was really impactful for more than 4 full seasons and a few finals series.

And Pendlebury’s B&F consistency is amazing. Better than anyone in history I’m sure.

Yeah 5 BnFs is getting up in best ever clubman territory. The additional 9 podiums elevates him.

But 9 x top-3 finishes by Martin would stack up very well to most.

2 BnFs fair way off guys like KB and Dyer.

5 to KB (3 in premierships) daylight to Dusty

9 x top-3 B&F finishes and 8 x AA squad selections points to elite consistency.

I am more fond of MRs player ratings, they give impact, and they note only 4 elite seasons.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Me thinks you protesteth too much.


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Don't you love the way these guys while pulling their hair out, scream at you that they are completely cool about Richmond & Dusty demolishing their team in 3 finals within 4 years ...

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Again, pretty easy to do when your team wins massively in Grand Finals.

Show us all the other players who have done it then if it is so easy to do....

 

[doppleganger]

Which isn't good enough. Believe it or not the first 12 weeks of a season matter.

Pointing that he is inconsistent and has a flat bit and then hot streaks points to why his player ratings are nothing special and he has only won 2 BnFs.

But yes, the MR approach is to ignore the full picture and just isolate the good bits.

 

[Chronz]

That’s a funny way of saying he was a pretty average H&A player.

Basically coasted through the H&A season to then be the hero in finals. Team had him on his shoulders for most of the year then had the fuel tickets to go nuts in september.

Let’s review scoreboard impact in finals versus H&A output

On average Dusty's hot form starts around the start of June each year

Yep, it all adds up. Ultimate figjam.

 

[RUNVS]

Show us all the other players who have done it then if it is so easy to do....

Just a few months ago Neale got 149 supercoach points in the Grand Final.

 

[doppleganger]

We can now see why you are called doppleganger. Thre are two of you. One who mocks others for quoting player ratings....and the other who routinely quotes player ratings.

Your parroting of player ratings has converted me.

Reckon they nail it

Dusty grouped alongside a great like Selwood, just below Kennedy, Gawn and Sloane.

Selwood career avg of 14.32
Dusty career avg of 14.35

Sloane career avg of 14.51
Josh Kennedy (Sydney) avg of 14.52
Max Gawn avg of 14.60
Clayton Oliver avg of 14.82
Fyfe avg of 14.82

Pendles avg 15.32
NicNat avg 15.84

Bont avg 16.45
Danger career avg of 16.55
GAJ career avg 17.00 (GOAT)

A few steps below greats and GAJ stands alone as the GOAT. Dusty only had 1 season better than GAJ career average!!

 

[doppleganger]

Basically coasted through the H&A season to then be the hero in finals. Team had him on his shoulders for most of the year then had the fuel tickets to go nuts in september.




Yep, it all adds up. Ultimate figjam.

Especially in 2019 when it was Prestia, Cotch and Edwards doing the heavy lifting in the middle.

Dusty avg 1 tackle and 9 pressure acts in the 2019 finals.

Prestia avg 6 tackles and 27 pressure acts.

Might be a bit easier to impact the scoreboard when only working one way.

 

[doppleganger]

Just a few months ago Neale got 149 supercoach points in the Grand Final.

But according to how Noid assessed the GF he was rubbish.

Neale only had 1 combined goal and assist in the GF, his scoreboard impact was down 33% from H&A figures.

Disregard that Neale had most disposals, CPs, i50s, clearances and score launches for the Lions. His scoreboard impact was down 33%

 

[Meteoric Rise]

That is pumping up Pendles.

Coming 2nd to a red hot Dane Swan (and actually beating him when Swan won a brownlow in 2011) is again highlighting how good Pendles was fecking 15 years ago.

Be good if he was really impactful for more than 4 full seasons and a few finals series.

Yeah 5 BnFs is getting up in best ever clubman territory. The additional 9 podiums elevates him.

2 BnFs fair way off guys like KB and Dyer.

5 to KB (3 in premierships) daylight to Dusty

I am more fond of MRs player ratings, they give impact, and they note only 4 elite seasons.

Dusty also played in the same team as a Brownlow Medallist, though in Dusty's case it was a Brownlow Medallist who also won the Coaches MVP.

You also don't seem to understand the effect of positions/roles on player ratings and what is considered elite. Dusty in most seasons was categorised as a mid-forward or general forward.

The top mid-forward in the AFL has rated:

2024 12.03
2023 15.08(Bolton, 2nd top 12.67)
2022 14.41(Bolton, 2nd top 13.28)
2021 17.22 (Martin 2nd top 16.62)
2020 14.38(x 1.25 = 17.97) - Martin
2019 16.77 Martin
2018 & prior it is not broken down positionally.

There are 40 odd players defined as mid-forwards each season. The top 2 or 3 are normally absolutely seen as elite. Martin has 3 of the top 4 season ratings for a mid-forward, 2019-2020-2021. That is totally elite.




The top general forward in the AFL has rated:

2024 16.64(the cutoff for elite around 11.7)
2023 14.25(elite cutoff 11.3) Dusty 2nd highest rated forward 13.91
2022 12.77(elite cutoff 10.9)
2021 13.92(elite cutoff 10.8)
2020 11.02 x 1.25 = 13.77(elite cutoff 12.5)
2019 13.51(elite cutoff 11.9)


Martin was categorised as follows:

2019-22 mid-forward
2023-24 general forward

It is likely he was only categorised as a midfielder in 2-3 seasons max. So for his role, he is likely to have been rated elite every season from 2011-23(13 seasons) with probably 1-2 exceptions.

So it doesn't look like you have much of a clue what you are talking about. He actually has 5 seasons with ratings that would be considered elite for a pure midfielder, despite barely playing as a pure midfielder. You don't seem to have realisd that either. And if you think that ain't much....find another player who you can say that about....if all his years had been rated, my money would be on Lance Franklin being the only other one.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Which isn't good enough. Believe it or not the first 12 weeks of a season matter.

Yep so 45 matches out of 136 not included in his hot streaks he got 22 votes from 45 matches at around 0.5 votes per match(to go with his 1.55 votes per match the rest of the time in those 6 seasons.)

0.5 votes per match is the career average of players like Boak, Treloar, Brent Harvey, Jesaulenko, Carey, Cotchin, Maurice Rioli Sr, Robert Flower, Josh Kennedy of Swans fame....

So when Dusty hadn't hit his straps each year for those 6 years(average 7-8 games start of season, that was his level, around Josh Kennedy's career average. As you say, not good enough by Dusty. When he did hit his straps, the rest couldn't see which way he went.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Just a few months ago Neale got 149 supercoach points in the Grand Final.

That's obtuse Run my man. So much so you have lost me.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Your parroting of player ratings has converted me.

Reckon they nail it

Dusty grouped alongside a great like Selwood, just below Kennedy, Gawn and Sloane.

Selwood career avg of 14.32
Dusty career avg of 14.35

Sloane career avg of 14.51
Josh Kennedy (Sydney) avg of 14.52
Max Gawn avg of 14.60
Clayton Oliver avg of 14.82
Fyfe avg of 14.82

Pendles avg 15.32
NicNat avg 15.84

Bont avg 16.45
Danger career avg of 16.55
GAJ career avg 17.00 (GOAT)

A few steps below greats and GAJ stands alone as the GOAT. Dusty only had 1 season better than GAJ career average!!

You don't seem to understand you are comparing a forward/mid-forward with pure midfielders.

 

[RUNVS]

You don't seem to understand you are comparing a forward/mid-forward with pure midfielders.

He only played forward a bit more because Martin never had the tank to be a proper midfielder.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

He only played forward a bit more because Martin never had the tank to be a proper midfielder.

Yep, wouldn't have been anything to do with his unrivalled ability to:

• win offensive 1 v 1 contests, 48.5% he won over his career, no other player above about 42%
• destroy opposition teams in finals when playing forward

It was simply due to Dusty, the player with the best season anyone has seen, never having had a tank.

Dustin Martin in 3 Grand Finals was outscored by the opposition TEAMS combined by 2.7 goals per game. The only player in history to play in multiple Grand Finals and have a smaller deficit to the opposition team is......

John Coleman. Sadly, Coleman only got to play in 2 Grand Finals, where Dusty played in 3.

Dusty diminishers really clutching at straws now.

 

[doppleganger]

You don't seem to understand you are comparing a forward/mid-forward with pure midfielders.

When talking GOATs you don't need qualifiers and to be selective in relation to who you compare against.

Plenty of the HOF legends who are in GOAT discussions were mid-forwards. Skilton, KB, Lethal, Hutchinson, Reynolds, Bunton and Ebert were rovers/mids who also pushed forward and won club leading goal kickers.

Then you had the taller hybrids like Blight, Jezza, Baldock, Hird who are more in the Bont style spent plenty of time up forward due to marking strength and goal kicking.

GAJ himself was a forward who a large proportion of his career (before and after) he dominated the game as a mid.

But yes keep pulling up your selective groupings MR - you have helped confirm Dusty was the best finals player of 2010s (nobody disputing that anyway) so looking forward to you now using player ratings to argue that he was the best mid-forward of 2019-21.

If you ain't realized, neither is relevant when talking GOATs.

Dusty's overall career record has him similar level to a Joel Selwood, nothing wrong with that, but nowhere near GOAT levels.

And Brent Harvey (another mid-forward) has a player rating career avg of 15.10, another above the mighty Dusty.

 

[JackOutback]

You don't seem to understand you are comparing a forward/mid-forward with pure midfielders.

NicNat and Gawn aren’t midfielders and they top him also. That said, good to see NicNat finally getting the credit he deserves.