2025 Federal Election: A Pox o' Both Your Houses

[Festerz]

The changes and the margins are both well within the margin for error, so this poll means as close to nothing as any political poll could.

Given that Newspoll and every other pre-election poll is merely indicative of a trend, that is a nonsense comment. My comment about adequate time for the slim margin to be made up in the month before the poll date is more relevant.

Out of curiosity what is the sample size and consequent margin for error in Newspoll and what pre-election polling would you take notice of?

 

[nobbyiscool]

Given that Newspoll and every other pre-election poll is merely indicative of a trend, that is a nonsense comment.

Out of curiosity what is the sample size and consequent margin for error in Newspoll and what pre-election polling would you take notice of?

I don't have time to explain statistical analysis to you mate, it's a whole year-long unit at university. Go pay for the knowledge like I did.

Suffice to say, I don't decide what sample size or error margin constitutes statistical significance. Nor do you. Nor the parties. Nor the polling companies. It's literally maths. And when you read deeply into their methodology, their sample size usually requires a difference of up to 6% before it means much.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

What 'catchphrase' can be exploited this campaign?

The ALP finally put out an effective ad last time with the "It's not my job" campaign. Level of truthfulness aside, it perfectly captured the negative view people had of ScoMo. They were times where the majority of Australian really thought the government needed to 'do' something - even if there was controversy over the specifics of what they did.

Is there a similar sound bite this time around that could be used so devestatingly?

The ALP should put out an ad like this:

(Poker table at a casino, camera is in first person perspective of a man playing. The dealer has five cards laid out, three upturned featuring solar panels and two face down.)

Voiceover: The whole world is moving to renewable energy...

(The man looks down at the two cards in his hand, both of which have nuclear symbols.)

Voiceover: ...But Peter Dutton thinks he knows better than everyone else. He wants to go nuclear.

(The man puts down his cards and grabs his entire pile of chips.)

Voiceover: In fact, he wants to bet the house on it. 600 billion dollars of your money.

(The figure $600 billion appears briefly on the screen.)

(The man looks to his side where a woman in tears is grabbing his shoulder.)

Woman: Please darling, don't do it, don't gamble away our future!

(The man looks back over to his hands, moves all his chips to the middle of the table and says "all in".)

Voiceover: But this reckless gamble won't end well for us. It'll increase the average electricity bill by $606 for households and $1182 for small businesses.

(The dealer upturns the last two cards, one of which shows a house, below which is a red arrow pointing up and the text +$606, the other of which shows a shop, below which is a red arrow pointing up and the text +$1182.)

(The dealer takes all the chips. Suddenly, the lights in the casino flicker, then go out, leaving a black screen.)

Voiceover: And if there are any delays at all, we risk running out of power and not being able to keep the lights on.

(White text appears on the black screen)

Voiceover: If Dutton wins, you lose.

(Authorisation)

 

[Festerz]

I don't have time to explain statistical analysis to you mate, it's a whole year-long unit at university. Go pay for the knowledge like I did.

Your assumption I didn't study statistics at university is wrong. But hey, thanks for sharing your personal academic achievements and well done. Although your comment about polling being 'literally maths' suggests you missed the units on 'context' .

This is a thread on the 2025 election, and polling results will feature heavily. And that's because political parties pay a lot of attention to the polling results with a particular focus on the trend of each poll. Feel free to ignore them but you cannot dismiss their relevance.

Looking at the trend for this poll shows the first time since July that Labor has held a lead over the Coalition. That can and will change and possibly flip over coming weeks as proper electioneering takes place. But I'm guessing given the tight margins at play in this election no one with any proper understanding of political polling will dismiss this or any other leading political poll from respected sources over the next five weeks it as glibly as you.

 

[nobbyiscool]

Your assumption I didn't study statistics at university is wrong. But hey, thanks for sharing your personal academic achievements and well done. Although your comment about polling being 'literally maths' suggests you missed the units on 'context' .

This is a thread on the 2025 election, and polling results will feature heavily. And that's because political parties pay a lot of attention to the polling results with a particular focus on the trend of each poll. Feel free to ignore them but you cannot dismiss their relevance.

Looking at the trend for this poll shows the first time since July that Labor has held a lead over the Coalition. That can and will change and possibly flip over coming weeks as proper electioneering takes place. But I'm guessing given the tight margins at play in this election no one with any proper understanding of political polling will dismiss this or any other leading political poll from respected sources over the next five weeks it as glibly as you.

My contention isn't that results are pointless.

It's that Newspoll polling sizes are typically so small that a 2% swing and/or a 2% 2PP difference doesn't mean anything, it's well within the error margin. Means even less now when you consider who is answering a phone from a private number and bothering to participate. From an opinion perspective, I don't think polls have ever meant less, because they don't/can't adequately represent the true demographic of the electorate. Is anyone under 40 participating? Are any ESL/migrant voters participating? Research says they don't.

You/political parties are welcome to jerk off over these basic bitch headline numbers... but that's how they got it so wrong with Trump the first time, it's how they got it so wrong when Turnbull and Morrison won. They don't mean shit.

You are kind of right on one thing (I think) - I remember sitting through a dull AF lecture from a polling/research company rep about 5 years ago, and they would argue that the limitations of their poling are such that trends are a lot more interesting and mean a hell of a lot more than the headline 2PP number.

 

[Festerz]

Polling for Nine Media conducted by research firm Resolve Strategic, shows Labor has increased its primary vote from 25 to 29 per cent over the past month, while the Coalition’s core support has slipped from 39 to 37 per cent.

The same polling has show that Albanese has taken the lead over Dutton as preferred prime minister, ahead by 42 to 33 per cent, in a significant shift since he fell behind the opposition leader at the start of this year.

Dutton retains a big gap against Albanese as the best leader to handle US President Donald Trump, ahead by 31 to 20 per cent, even as the prime minister suggests his opponent is trying to copy the American leader.

Albanese edges ahead of Dutton as Labor bounces back: poll

The dramatic swing has tightened the race for power in the opening stage of the election campaign, putting Labor and the Coalition neck and neck in two-party terms.

www.theage.com.au

 

[Festerz]

You/political parties are welcome to jerk off over these basic bitch headline numbers...

Lol. No jerking off on my end mate.

Just reporting the results with quoting from and links to the media source for the benefit of this thread.

My comment in the post that got you so triggered making my personal position on the relative positioning of Dutton v Albanese very clear. That 'context' thing again

But the gap is still very small and plenty of time for him to re-gather his media forces to claw back the lead.

Your comment regarding Trump is a bit odd but unsurprising- but way off topic for this thread for me to respond.

that's how they got it so wrong with Trump the first time

 

[kranky al]

Of all the insults directed his way, this might well be the simplest and the best of them all. ScoMo was just a boob.

Boobs are mint.

I be prefer recycling scomo as a synonym for a turd.

Ie: I just snapped off a big reeking scomo

 

[kranky al]

Well, do you know any necromancers?

Hickeys are so teenage…

 

[nobbyiscool]

Lol. No jerking off on my end mate.

Just reporting the results with quoting from and links to the media analysis.

My comment in the post that got you so triggered making my personal position very clear.

Don't presume to know what I reacted to buddy. I am not "triggered" you "snowflake." (Apparently we're just throwing idiotic, MAGA-felating buzzwords around now?)

All I was doing was educating the BF populace that 2% doesn't mean anything. It was a factual comment that didn't need to lead to a stupid argument with someone who is clearly intellectually unqualified to discuss polling, mathematics or statistical analysis, and whose best reaction is a "laugh" react cos they don't have the mental capacity to engage in a coherent discussion.

Anyway, I'm done arguing facts. My pop would be so angry with me for placating you for so long.

Factually speaking, a 2% 2pp difference, and a 2% swing are both well within the error margin - enough that only a bellend should pay attention to the basic bitch numbers. It was the only point I was making.

 

[Festerz]

All I was doing was educating the BF populace

Of course you were and yet when asked for specifics of your concern with the polling you responded thus:

I don't have time to explain statistical analysis to you mate, it's a whole year-long unit at university. Go pay for the knowledge like I did.

Nah, you weren't 'educating' but trying to make a political point in a direct response to me and got called out on it. Only to then try to resort to the authoritative fallacy, but got called out on that too.

My pop would be so angry with me for placating you for so long.

Your 'pop' has sense. Good bye.

 

[E Shed]

If the Libs go down AND Dutton loses his seat it will be in the best political moments of my generation.
Nothing will ever beat the Rodent getting the Aristotle and Abbott's demise was also top notch but this will definitely be top 3.

Imagine Angus Taylor as default leader of the opposition. Inanimate carbon rod meme comes to mind. You'd back the bloke in a stealing contest but he's so far out of depth as a politician. He has never seemed to be able to grasp the concept of public service as anything beyond as easy way to make bank.

 

[Gough]

‘A female Donald Trump’: how Gina Rinehart is pushing the Maga message in Australia

Australia’s richest person has close ties with the US president’s ‘Trumpettes’ and has even styled her company headquarters with Maga-inspired designs

www.theguardian.com

A vote for Dutton is a vote for Fat Gina.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

This is a thread on the 2025 election, and polling results will feature heavily. And that's because political parties pay a lot of attention to the polling results with a particular focus on the trend of each poll. Feel free to ignore them but you cannot dismiss their relevance.

Looking at the trend for this poll shows the first time since July that Labor has held a lead over the Coalition. That can and will change and possibly flip over coming weeks as proper electioneering takes place. But I'm guessing given the tight margins at play in this election no one with any proper understanding of political polling will dismiss this or any other leading political poll from respected sources over the next five weeks it as glibly as you.

At the very least, it would suggest to Dutton and the Coalation that if they want to take back power and if he wants to be Prime Minister, that they're not going to just coast to it. The ALP isn't going to hand it to them on a platter. They have to go out and win it. And the problem with that is I can't remember a time recently when Dutton has opened his mouth where he's done anything to help his or his party's cause.

 

[nut]

No nuclear plan
No immigration plan …. 25% how? From skilled migration?
Repealing Tax cuts!!!!
Gas reserve? When will that bring down prices? Demand is already falling domestically so why aren’t prices falling.
Banning machetes!!!! Lmfao.

 

[Saint]

Given that each one of us has our social media "curated" by the powers that be I don't think we can give ads that appear on on our SM any sort of weight at all. (FWIW I get next to zero election ads on my SM).

That's a good point. We probably won't see the extent or content of a large proportion of political advertising. There might be attack lines in certain locations or for certain demographics of which we will remain completely oblivious.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

That's a good point. We probably won't see the extent or content of a large proportion of political advertising. There might be attack lines in certain locations or for certain demographics of which we will remain completely oblivious.

Hence why I say it’s still good to switch off the SM regularly and check out a range of mainstream media.

MSM won’t give you the full picture, no way.

But anyone who thinks SM will, is totally delulu.

 

[Festerz]

At the very least, it would suggest to Dutton and the Coalation that if they want to take back power and if he wants to be Prime Minister, that they're not going to just coast to it. The ALP isn't going to hand it to them on a platter. They have to go out and win it. And the problem with that is I can't remember a time recently when Dutton has opened his mouth where he's done anything to help his or his party's cause.

The polling is all one way at the moment and Sydney Morning Herald and The Age chief political correspondent David Crowe says the Resolve poll showed a “powerful shift in sentiment in every major indicator”.

“Primary vote, preferred prime minister, ratings on leadership performance and opinions about which side is best on key policies. Labor has gained on all counts,”

“It looks as if Labor has finally marshalled its forces to win back voters with better policies and a more convincing message. The mystery is why it took so long. The prospect of imminent defeat finally jolted the insiders into action.”

The Australian’s political editor and Liberal Party insider Simon Benson, the opposition leader has “vacated the field” and allowed momentum to stall.

Reckon Dutton will go back to doing what he does - culture wars. Expect more extreme and hyperbolic headlines about immigration, etc. across the Murdoch media outlets in coming days.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

That's a good point. We probably won't see the extent or content of a large proportion of political advertising. There might be attack lines in certain locations or for certain demographics of which we will remain completely oblivious.

My recollection in the lead-up to the last Federal election is Casey Briggs would do a bit of analysis during the campaign on how much money was being spent on digital advertising, which would be a more accurate indication than what we see, which is dictated by our own inherent bias.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

The polling is all one way at the moment and Sydney Morning Herald and The Age chief political correspondent David Crowe says the Resolve poll showed a “powerful shift in sentiment in every major indicator”.

“Primary vote, preferred prime minister, ratings on leadership performance and opinions about which side is best on key policies. Labor has gained on all counts,”

“It looks as if Labor has finally marshalled its forces to win back voters with better policies and a more convincing message. The mystery is why it took so long. The prospect of imminent defeat finally jolted the insiders into action.”

The Australian’s political editor and Liberal Party insider Simon Benson, the opposition leader has “vacated the field” and allowed momentum to stall.

Reckon Dutton will go back to doing what he does - culture wars. Expect more extreme and hyperbolic headlines about immigration, etc. across the Murdoch media outlets in coming days.

To say the polls don't matter could broadly be considered true, in that you can't say "How did they lose? The polls had them ahead 52-48!" But of course they matter in that there's clear trends, it's not all over the shop from one poll to the next, especially this close to an election. Both major parties take very careful note of how it's trending and plan their strategies over the next days and weeks accordingly to keep the momentum or get back on track. So it undoubtedly has an effect.

And yes, I expect the standard immigration and national security stuff. I love the Hollowmen episode where the Secretary of the Department of the Prime Minister suggests that efficiency in national security could be achieved by spending less.

 

[Festerz]

And yes, I expect the standard immigration and national security stuff.

Yes, Khaki electioneering has been the go-to for every conservative federal leader struggling in the polls since Federation. Most recently the shock AUKUS announcement was an attempt at wedge politics by Scott Morrison on the back of poor polling but its political effect was negated by Albanese simply saying it had his full support.

But this time, for the first time in the lives of anyone under 90, the US can no longer be portrayed as Australia's great protector from the evil commie threat to our north. The core principles that underpin our strategic military alliance with the US since WW2 are now under serious threat.

It leaves Dutton in a wedge of his own making. Just a matter of weeks ago he was applauding Trump's election and mimicking Trump policies. But now, as those policies undermine Australia's trade and strategic foundations, he is left resorting to personal attacks on Albanese for not being tough with Trump - calling him 'weak as water'.

As for Albanese, he too is in a 'damned if he does/damned if he doesn't' bind when it comes to criticising Trump. So he seemingly has chosen to just ignore it as an issue in his campaigning -despite it being the elephant in the room in terms of Australia's immediate economic and strategic future. The three monkeys approach to the biggest international relations and defence existential crisis in Australia's recent history.

 

[nut]

The mystery is why it took so long. The prospect of imminent defeat finally jolted the insiders into action.”

It’s not a sprint it’s a marathon.., timing is everything.

 

[Saint]

Yes, Khaki electioneering has been the go-to for every conservative federal leader struggling in the polls since Federation. Most recently the shock AUKUS announcement was an attempt at wedge politics by Scott Morrison on the back of poor polling but its political effect was negated by Albanese simply saying it had his full support.

But this time, for the first time in the lives of anyone under 90, the US can no longer be portrayed as Australia's great protector from the evil commie threat to our north. The core principles that underpin our strategic military alliance with the US since WW2 are now under serious threat.

It leaves Dutton in a wedge of his own making. Just a matter of weeks ago he was applauding Trump's election and mimicking Trump policies. But now, as those policies undermine Australia's trade and strategic foundations, he is left resorting to personal attacks on Albanese for not being tough with Trump - calling him 'weak as water'.

As for Albanese, he too is in a 'damned if he does/damned if he doesn't' bind when it comes to criticising Trump. So he seemingly has chosen to just ignore it as an issue in his campaigning -despite it being the elephant in the room in terms of Australia's immediate economic and strategic future. The three monkeys approach to the biggest international relations and defence existential crisis in Australia's recent history.

Both parties are committed to a $300bn defence pact with a country they both accuse the other of not being strong enough with.

If we have to be "strong" with a country, we should probably not have been so weak in our AUKUS agreement which has no guarantees for Australia at all, but a huge financial commitment.

It's the worst defence policy since the Emu Wars and it's bipartisan because they don't want to be wedged, and don't care about pouring $300bn down the drain.

Between the abandonment of principle over Gazan genocide and the abandonment of common sense on AUKUS, I'd suggest that the LNP shouldn't be trying to out-do the ALP on Khaki electioneering, they should both be looking at the fact that the Greens have a more sensible defence policy than both of them.

 

[Achy Blakey Heart]

Both parties are as bad as each other gave us Trump.

Us? Is Trump the PM of Australia now?

 

[nut]

Interesting… coalition Majority now least favourite