I'd say Hawthorn and Sydney are close to even. Adelaide behind. Can't see any side making a serious push before 2023 at the earliest - a bunch of people will make big. Claims about 5 or even 10 years, but I'm not prepared to make any sweeping declarations beyond that because 2 years is a massive time in footy. See, Western Bulldogs 2013.
Hawthorn in danger of rushing out a good coach in Clarkson for short term success. They were a bottom side for Clarksons first 2 years and a couple of years before that. Hawthorn played in a semi final in 2018. I think they do need to hit the draft hard for a couple of drafts though, unless a genuine big fish (J.Cameron the obvious RFA) comes up. Otherwise they have solidified the middle aged tier, getting in Wingard and Impey to support Mitchell, Sicily, Hardwick, O'Meara etc, and have some promise with Worpel, Day, Scrimshaw, Lewis.
But they need to identify some elite talents in key defender, key forward and small forward positions. Mids have good players and good depth, but after the game less Koschitzke, Frost is their youngest key defender I can see? Certainly don't want Sicily being the number 2 defender. Koschitzke was also a number 52 draft pick - I know, Hawks can pick out good players from Anywhere, but there's a lot riding on him right now because Frawley, Stratton, Hartley aren't forever and Frost isn't either. So they've got some holes to fill and picking up Frost and Patton types isn't cutting it.
A 2023 side could look like
B: Hardwick, Koschitzke, Day
HB: Sicily, high draft pick 2020, Impey - rely on Sicily and Hardwick to give Kosi and the draft pick a chop out
C: Scrimshaw, Worpel, Morrison
Foll: experienced cheap ruck, Mitchell, O'Meara - fairly stock standard, need to be careful to have a secondary midfield that has some extra speed though
HF: Hanrahan, Lewis, Wingard
F: medium/high draft pick 2020, high draft pick 2021, experienced forward such as Breust/Gunston/Patton depending on decline and needs - need a couple of experienced forwards to chop out, I don't think O'Brien is going to make it, Jones could be there, basically every flag side recently has had multiple good small forwards, but you also don't need to spend a top pick on them - I'd think the Rich and Hawk Riolis are the highest picked, not including the likes of Rayner or Rankine who would be expected to move into the middle??
Moving onto Sydney - they are the most forward in terms of rebuilding youth up of the 3 clubs here.
They've got solid foundations at the draft with Mills, Heeney, Florent, Blakey, Ling, Stephens first round picks with Gould, Rowbottom, McCartin, Hayward in the 2nd round in the past few drafts.
They probably out of the 3 clubs most have a discussion for a freshen up at the coaching table. Why Longmire and not Clarkson? Well Clarkson has had a rebuild and a revamp (2009-10) be successful. So makes sense to give him time. I'm not saying Longmire can't, he hasn't had too do it yet, but Sydney will need to have a clear idea of when they expect to jump up the ladder.
I don't think Blakey or McCartin will ever be true number 1 forwards, Blakey suited higher up and McCartin not that I think he's poor, just more see him as a Jack Darling to a JJK. So that's a spot for them to go. They've got Papley and Hayward for small forward roles, while Hewett, Florent, Mills and Heeney are a decent midfield group. Defence is where they look good on paper but fall apart. Outside of Rampe, who is prone to brain fades anyway, they don't have a trustworthy reliable back 6. When it's Lloyd, Allir, Fox, O'Riordan types, all of whom have positive sides to the game, no team will think they can't kick a winning score against them though. Probably not the right mix.
I think Daniher is the wrong forward for them, but if he's fit then he's worth a first rounder. But without him playing out 7-8 plus finals games this year at full fitness it's a massive risk. So I'll say we don't see the best of Daniher and he goes for a 2nd rounder.
2023 (no Franklin, Reid, Sinclair, Kennedy, Rampe)
B: Lloyd, Melican, Gould
HB: Cunningham/O'Riordan, ????, Dawson
C: Mills, Hewett, Rowbottom
HF: Blakey, Daniher, Stephens
F: Papley, McCartin, Heeney
Foll: ????? (McLean?), Parker, Florent
I'd say CHB could be targeted with a trade. Cunningham should probably be phased out too because he'll be 30 and there's enough seniority on there. I think that's tracking well for a finals side but requires some step ups or phasing out of Lloyd, Dawson, Melican and Cunningham to ensure the defence is rock solid (plus obvious development of Gould).
Finally Adelaide who I'd say are the currently worst placed. With the expected influx of picks over the next 2 years that could change quickly, but geez they've got some players to clear.
Come the start of 2023 you'd expect Mackay (34), Gibbs (34), Sloane (33), Walker (33), Lynch (32), Hartigan (31), Seedsman (31), and Brown (30) to be gone. I'd expect Talia (31), Smith (31), Laird (29), B.Crouch (29), Atkins (28), Knight (28) and M.Crouch (28) to have come under serious consideration for trades, particularly to contenders where they'd all be much better players as they were circa 2017. I also have doubts on the long term careers of Crocker, Murphy, Wilson (great SANFL player but Kane Mitchell like in terms of ability to step up) and perhaps even Keays, who is a good solid body for this young Crows side (as well as being accountable defensively) but much like with Brisbane could get his role pushed aside with team improvement. I'm not even convinced of Gallucci long term.
So it's a baby and bathwater situation. That's up to 15 players turned over in 2 or 3 pre seasons but the thing is up to 12 or 13 of those are regulars right now. It's a huge list change to navigate and they will be in damage control for 2021 at least but maybe 2022. One thing the Crows do exceptionally well though is draft.
2023
B: Doedee, Talia, Laird
HB: top 5 pick 2022, McAsey, Hamill
C: Atkins, Milera, top 3 pick 2021
HF: Poholke, Fogarty, McAdam
F: Stengle, E.Himmelberg, McHenry
Foll: O'Brien, top 2 pick 2020, Jones
That gives them about 8 top 15 picks or so plus some guys who are ahead in their expected development (Hamill, Himmelberg). Some depth expected to have started with Frampton, Worrell, Schoenberg, McPherson, Davis, O'Connor and Gallant not doing anything wrong yet and should all be persisted with. And this is just their draft picks for finishing low - in my hypothetical side they'd have picks for the Crouch Brothers, Smith, Knight, plus normal 2nd rounders.
Keays, Knight, Smith, Lynch, Gallucci could all also persist through until then too. In terms of senior players it's hard to know who is going to be kept for a rebuild and who isn't, but of a crapshoot tbh,more just illustrating the point of why I think there will be higher turnover then compared to Hawthorn and Sydney who are likely to keep more of their current top 18 players by 2023 than Adelaide.
However while I think Crows fans wouldn't be unhappy with that 2023 side, it's hard to see it winning a flag within a year or 2 after that.
Hawthorn in danger of rushing out a good coach in Clarkson for short term success. They were a bottom side for Clarksons first 2 years and a couple of years before that. Hawthorn played in a semi final in 2018. I think they do need to hit the draft hard for a couple of drafts though, unless a genuine big fish (J.Cameron the obvious RFA) comes up. Otherwise they have solidified the middle aged tier, getting in Wingard and Impey to support Mitchell, Sicily, Hardwick, O'Meara etc, and have some promise with Worpel, Day, Scrimshaw, Lewis.
But they need to identify some elite talents in key defender, key forward and small forward positions. Mids have good players and good depth, but after the game less Koschitzke, Frost is their youngest key defender I can see? Certainly don't want Sicily being the number 2 defender. Koschitzke was also a number 52 draft pick - I know, Hawks can pick out good players from Anywhere, but there's a lot riding on him right now because Frawley, Stratton, Hartley aren't forever and Frost isn't either. So they've got some holes to fill and picking up Frost and Patton types isn't cutting it.
A 2023 side could look like
B: Hardwick, Koschitzke, Day
HB: Sicily, high draft pick 2020, Impey - rely on Sicily and Hardwick to give Kosi and the draft pick a chop out
C: Scrimshaw, Worpel, Morrison
Foll: experienced cheap ruck, Mitchell, O'Meara - fairly stock standard, need to be careful to have a secondary midfield that has some extra speed though
HF: Hanrahan, Lewis, Wingard
F: medium/high draft pick 2020, high draft pick 2021, experienced forward such as Breust/Gunston/Patton depending on decline and needs - need a couple of experienced forwards to chop out, I don't think O'Brien is going to make it, Jones could be there, basically every flag side recently has had multiple good small forwards, but you also don't need to spend a top pick on them - I'd think the Rich and Hawk Riolis are the highest picked, not including the likes of Rayner or Rankine who would be expected to move into the middle??
Moving onto Sydney - they are the most forward in terms of rebuilding youth up of the 3 clubs here.
They've got solid foundations at the draft with Mills, Heeney, Florent, Blakey, Ling, Stephens first round picks with Gould, Rowbottom, McCartin, Hayward in the 2nd round in the past few drafts.
They probably out of the 3 clubs most have a discussion for a freshen up at the coaching table. Why Longmire and not Clarkson? Well Clarkson has had a rebuild and a revamp (2009-10) be successful. So makes sense to give him time. I'm not saying Longmire can't, he hasn't had too do it yet, but Sydney will need to have a clear idea of when they expect to jump up the ladder.
I don't think Blakey or McCartin will ever be true number 1 forwards, Blakey suited higher up and McCartin not that I think he's poor, just more see him as a Jack Darling to a JJK. So that's a spot for them to go. They've got Papley and Hayward for small forward roles, while Hewett, Florent, Mills and Heeney are a decent midfield group. Defence is where they look good on paper but fall apart. Outside of Rampe, who is prone to brain fades anyway, they don't have a trustworthy reliable back 6. When it's Lloyd, Allir, Fox, O'Riordan types, all of whom have positive sides to the game, no team will think they can't kick a winning score against them though. Probably not the right mix.
I think Daniher is the wrong forward for them, but if he's fit then he's worth a first rounder. But without him playing out 7-8 plus finals games this year at full fitness it's a massive risk. So I'll say we don't see the best of Daniher and he goes for a 2nd rounder.
2023 (no Franklin, Reid, Sinclair, Kennedy, Rampe)
B: Lloyd, Melican, Gould
HB: Cunningham/O'Riordan, ????, Dawson
C: Mills, Hewett, Rowbottom
HF: Blakey, Daniher, Stephens
F: Papley, McCartin, Heeney
Foll: ????? (McLean?), Parker, Florent
I'd say CHB could be targeted with a trade. Cunningham should probably be phased out too because he'll be 30 and there's enough seniority on there. I think that's tracking well for a finals side but requires some step ups or phasing out of Lloyd, Dawson, Melican and Cunningham to ensure the defence is rock solid (plus obvious development of Gould).
Finally Adelaide who I'd say are the currently worst placed. With the expected influx of picks over the next 2 years that could change quickly, but geez they've got some players to clear.
Come the start of 2023 you'd expect Mackay (34), Gibbs (34), Sloane (33), Walker (33), Lynch (32), Hartigan (31), Seedsman (31), and Brown (30) to be gone. I'd expect Talia (31), Smith (31), Laird (29), B.Crouch (29), Atkins (28), Knight (28) and M.Crouch (28) to have come under serious consideration for trades, particularly to contenders where they'd all be much better players as they were circa 2017. I also have doubts on the long term careers of Crocker, Murphy, Wilson (great SANFL player but Kane Mitchell like in terms of ability to step up) and perhaps even Keays, who is a good solid body for this young Crows side (as well as being accountable defensively) but much like with Brisbane could get his role pushed aside with team improvement. I'm not even convinced of Gallucci long term.
So it's a baby and bathwater situation. That's up to 15 players turned over in 2 or 3 pre seasons but the thing is up to 12 or 13 of those are regulars right now. It's a huge list change to navigate and they will be in damage control for 2021 at least but maybe 2022. One thing the Crows do exceptionally well though is draft.
2023
B: Doedee, Talia, Laird
HB: top 5 pick 2022, McAsey, Hamill
C: Atkins, Milera, top 3 pick 2021
HF: Poholke, Fogarty, McAdam
F: Stengle, E.Himmelberg, McHenry
Foll: O'Brien, top 2 pick 2020, Jones
That gives them about 8 top 15 picks or so plus some guys who are ahead in their expected development (Hamill, Himmelberg). Some depth expected to have started with Frampton, Worrell, Schoenberg, McPherson, Davis, O'Connor and Gallant not doing anything wrong yet and should all be persisted with. And this is just their draft picks for finishing low - in my hypothetical side they'd have picks for the Crouch Brothers, Smith, Knight, plus normal 2nd rounders.
Keays, Knight, Smith, Lynch, Gallucci could all also persist through until then too. In terms of senior players it's hard to know who is going to be kept for a rebuild and who isn't, but of a crapshoot tbh,more just illustrating the point of why I think there will be higher turnover then compared to Hawthorn and Sydney who are likely to keep more of their current top 18 players by 2023 than Adelaide.
However while I think Crows fans wouldn't be unhappy with that 2023 side, it's hard to see it winning a flag within a year or 2 after that.
