Which club do you think will be pushing for a flag first - Adelaide, Hawthorn or Sydney?

[RUNVS]

Now this is a very complicated question but I thought it would be an interesting discussion as all three clubs had success (admitting Hawthorn a lot more) but importantly all three have gotten worse on the field in the last few years, with each club tumbling down the ladder and not really expected to come back up again for some time.

Each club has their problems too. Hawthorn is old and seemingly does not have a lot of youth coming through, however, they do have a coach who has proven to be a master at getting the best out of his list and staying competitive. Hawthorn have also been shown to be very savy when trading. Sydney are super young but it is debatable whether the players can take the step up as well as whether the coach is up to it and Adelaide, well I am not even sure how to deconstruct what is going on at Adelaide but their list profile looks okay but like Hawthorn they seem to be lacking proper young talent.

So I thought I would put a general list profile of each club, how many players and what players are in each age bracket in a hopefully easy to read way. I have only included players that have played at least 1 game.


31+

McEvoy, Stratton, Smith, Frawley, Henderson, Puopolo, Burgoyne - 7
Kennedy, Franklin - 2
Gibbs, MacKay - 2


29 to 31

Scully, Shiels, Ceglar, Bruest - 4
Lynch, Walker, Sloan - 3
Sinclair, Rampe - 2


27 to 29

Fox, Parker, Naismith, Gray, Reid - 5
Brown, Seedsman, Smith, Hartigan, Talia - 5
Hartley, Mitchell, Patton, Gunston - 4


25 to 27

McAdam, M.Crouch, Knight, Kelly, Wilson, Atkins, B.Crouch, Laird - 8
Impey, Sicily, O'Brien, O'Meara, Minchington, Frost, Wingard - 7
L.Taylor, Aliir, Brand, Thurlow, Cunningham, Lloyd - 6


23 to 25

Clarke, Dawson, Melican, Papley, Heeney, Hewett, O'Riordan - 7
Davis, Doedee, Keays, Crocker, Frampton, O'Brien - 6
Hardwick, Howe - 2


21 to 23

Jiath, Jones, Worpel, Morrison, Lewis, Scrimshaw, Hanrahan, Nash, Cousins, Glass - 10
McPherson, Murphy, Stengle, Poholke, Himmelberg, Gallucci, Milera - 7
Bell, McLean, Hayward, Florent, Ronke - 5


18 to 21

Warner, E.Taylor, Stephens, Rowbottom, McInerney, Blakey, McCartin, Stoddart - 8
McAsey, Hamill, McHenry, Jones, Fogarty - 5
Morris, Day, Moore - 3

So which team do you think will be competing for the finals the soonest?

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Probably could add us to this list.
Albeit we have a spate of good pucks coming up.

 

[RUNVS]

Probably could add us to this list.
Albeit we have a spate of good pucks coming up.

I see Geelong with a chance of winning the flag this year, not a high chance admittedly, but a chance. Adelaide, Hawthorn and Sydney though, not a chance in hell

I think it is interesting to discuss 3 teams that were really good only a few years ago and now seem to be heading down the ladder rather quickly.

 

[FISTO]

Don't forget that North Melbourne exist

 

[RUNVS]

Don't forget that North Melbourne exist

Yeah but they were never near the top of the ladder.

 

[Bradkli]

Sydney easily...their young talent is excellent...heeney, mills, Florent, heyward, mccartin, Blakey, Dawson all look like they will become guns...they would all be in our current best 22...

Hawks and Adelaide’s lists are absolutely cooked...at least we were able to win some silverware over the past decade, which will make the next 3-5 years of pain manageable

 

[Beerfish]

Well according to Hawthorn supporters they win a flag every 7 years so it would have to be them surely?

 

[_Mike_]

Tough question, all mentioned teams have list issues however Adelaide has shown to be the biggest basket case this season. I’m not sure if Sydney’s young talent is there yet (meaning having the ceiling & potential to go the distance) so I’d put a 50/50 between the Swans and Hawks with Adelaide behind them.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

I see Geelong with a chance of winning the flag this year, not a high chance admittedly, but a chance. Adelaide, Hawthorn and Sydney though, not a chance in hell

I think it is interesting to discuss 3 teams that were really good only a few years ago and now seem to be heading down the ladder rather quickly.

We’re no chance and it is an indictment on most of the comp that we’re still up towards the top. An average list with a good coach about to reset like the 3 you’ve mentioned

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Now this is a very complicated question but I thought it would be an interesting discussion as all three clubs had success (admitting Hawthorn a lot more) but importantly all three have gotten worse on the field in the last few years, with each club tumbling down the ladder and not really expected to come back up again for some time.

Each club has their problems too. Hawthorn is old and seemingly does not have a lot of youth coming through, however, they do have a coach who has proven to be a master at getting the best out of his list and staying competitive. Hawthorn have also been shown to be very savy when trading. Sydney are super young but it is debatable whether the players can take the step up as well as whether the coach is up to it and Adelaide, well I am not even sure how to deconstruct what is going on at Adelaide but their list profile looks okay but like Hawthorn they seem to be lacking proper young talent.

So I thought I would put a general list profile of each club, how many players and what players are in each age bracket in a hopefully easy to read way. I have only included players that have played at least 1 game.


31+

McEvoy, Stratton, Smith, Frawley, Henderson, Puopolo, Burgoyne - 7
Kennedy, Franklin - 2
Gibbs, MacKay - 2


29 to 31

Scully, Shiels, Ceglar, Bruest - 4
Lynch, Walker, Sloan - 3
Sinclair, Rampe - 2


27 to 29

Fox, Parker, Naismith, Gray, Reid - 5
Brown, Seedsman, Smith, Hartigan, Talia - 5
Hartley, Mitchell, Patton, Gunston - 4


25 to 27

McAdam, M.Crouch, Knight, Kelly, Wilson, Atkins, B.Crouch, Laird - 8
Impey, Sicily, O'Brien, O'Meara, Minchington, Frost, Wingard - 7
L.Taylor, Aliir, Brand, Thurlow, Cunningham, Lloyd - 6


23 to 25

Clarke, Dawson, Melican, Papley, Heeney, Hewett, O'Riordan - 7
Davis, Doedee, Keays, Crocker, Frampton, O'Brien - 6
Hardwick, Howe - 2


21 to 23

Jiath, Jones, Worpel, Morrison, Lewis, Scrimshaw, Hanrahan, Nash, Cousins, Glass - 10
McPherson, Murphy, Stengle, Poholke, Himmelberg, Gallucci, Milera - 7
Bell, McLean, Hayward, Florent, Ronke - 5


18 to 21

Warner, E.Taylor, Stephens, Rowbottom, McInerney, Blakey, McCartin, Stoddart - 8
McAsey, Hamill, McHenry, Jones, Fogarty - 5
Morris, Day, Moore - 3

So which team do you think will be competing for the finals the soonest?

Missing Worrell, Schoenberg, Sholl, Gollant & others from our 18-21 year olds we have drafted in the last 2 years.

Imo, Hawks are the least likely as most reliant on their older players.

To get an idea of the holes in our squad, picking a side from our under 30's...

B: Brown, Talia, Worrell
HB: McPherson, Doedee, Hamill
C: Milera, Brouch, Smith
HF: Davis, McAsey, McHenry
F: Stengle, Fogarty, McAdam
R: O'Brien, Schoenberg, Jones
I: Laird, Mrouch, Seedsman, Sholl

Just need to keep getting games into our young talent... including the early 2x 1st & 2nd rounders we have in this year's draft.

 

[Slysh]

It's really hard to say at the moment because we still don't know what direction the Hawks are going in. Are we about to hit the full rebuild? If we do, are we going full blow it up mode and trade out anyone with currency. Or do we try and let it happen slowly and naturally.

Sydney have a lot of players with star potential but none that have taken that step yet (unless Papley counts).

Heeney a very good player but still waiting for that next step
Mills Very good for his position but if he stays as is he isn't the sort of player you build around.
Blakey is all hype still at the moment, done some nice things but yet to prove he will be a superstar.
Florent looked great to start the year and i really like him.
Hayward looks to be getting back to what he showed a year or two ago.

They definitely have more young talent but are they on track to reach the absolute heights of a premiership or are they rebuilding just to end of a good team.

Adelaide are very similar to us although have already hit the blow it up button. Massive wait and see still on them with everyone going on, i would probably have them sitting 3rd at the moment but it really is a crap shoot predicting rebuilds this early.

 

[Slysh]

Missing Worrell, Schoenberg, Sholl, Gollant & others from our 18-21 year olds we have drafted in the last 2 years.

Imo, Hawks are the least likely as most reliant on their older players.

To get an idea of the holes in our squad, picking a side from our under 30's...

B: Brown, Talia, Worrell
HB: McPherson, Doedee, Hamill
C: Milera, Brouch, Smith
HF: Davis, McAsey, McHenry
F: Stengle, Fogarty, McAdam
R: O'Brien, Schoenberg, Jones
I: Laird, Mrouch, Seedsman, Sholl

Just need to keep getting games into our young talent... including the early 2x 1st & 2nd rounders we have in this year's draft.

Sure my only argument would be if you take those old players away we are just where the Crows are, neither really more developed in this area.

 

[Pessimistic]

One will win a flag before 12 of the other 15 do

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Sure my only argument would be if you take those old players away we are just where the Crows are, neither really more developed in this area.

Problem is you don't already have the same young talent on your list as you have more 30+ aged players who you are more reliant on.

Also, Hawks don't have many recent early pick draftees as have traded away to get the likes of Wingard, OMeara & Mitchell.

Both Swans & Crows have been going to the draft.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

The Swans are stacked with talent and their list is in great shape IMO. If at any stage between 2007 and 2015 we'd had the Swans current list I would have felt a lot better. Might have a couple more years down the bottom but will develop strongly.

 

[Slysh]

Problem is you don't already have the same young talent on your list as you have more 30+ aged players who you are more reliant on.

Also, Hawks don't have many recent early pick draftees as have traded away to get the likes of Wingard, OMeara & Mitchell.

Both Swans & Crows have been going to the draft.

And who from the Crows have shown to be good AFL players? Drafting players doesn't 100% = better young talent.

The Crows still need to show those picks have developed in to good players, like the Swans have started to do.

 

[Pessimistic]

Problem is you don't already have the same young talent on your list as you have more 30+ aged players who you are more reliant on.

Also, Hawks don't have many recent early pick draftees as have traded away to get the likes of Wingard, OMeara & Mitchell.

Both Swans & Crows have been going to the draft.

we didnt have early picks full stop

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

And who from the Crows have shown to be good AFL players? Drafting players doesn't 100% = better young talent.

The Crows still need to show those picks have developed in to good players, like the Swans have started to do.

Indeed... but my point is the Crows & Swans have used plenty of early draft picks over recent years whilst the Hawks have traded theirs away... so the Hawks don't have the same quality of younger players on their list. Eg. If you look at the last 3 drafts...

2019
Crows - McAsey 6, Schoenberg 24, Worrell 28, O'Connor 42, Gollant 48
Swans- Stephens 5, Gould 26, Taylor 36, Warner 39
Hawks - Maginness 29, Morris 57

2018
Crows - Jones 9, McHenry 16, Hamill 30, Sholl 64
Swans - Blakey 10, Rowbottom 24, McInerney 44, Foot 51,
Hawks - Kochitzke 52, Walker 63

2017
Crows - Fogarty 12, McPherson 40
Swans - Ling 14, McCartin 33, Stoddart 53
Hawks - Worpel 45, Moore 67, Ross 71

 

[afl genius]

Swans, maybe crows if a few youngsters kick on. That Hawks list especially the younger players is the worst in the comp

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

we didnt have early picks full stop

Not a bad thing if you have the flags to show for it!

 

[Greenac]

This is just painful. Lumped in with teams with the criteria being successful but now shite.

Hawthorn 4 GFs for 3 flags.
Sydney 3 GFs for 1 flag
Adelaide 1 GF for 0 flags.

That's just the last 8 years, the last 15 would be even more painful.

Hawthorn have Clarko and a culture of success and are a destination club.

Sydney have a bunch of great younger players and are somewhat a destination club for those looking to make some coin outside of Vic.

Adelaide have Will Hamill. Hamill is a future brownlow medallist but I don't think he can do it all.

Hawthorn vs Sydney is an interesting enough debate on its own without inviting the weird kid too.

 

[HaroLad]

We’re no chance and it is an indictment on most of the comp that we’re still up towards the top. An average list with a good coach about to reset like the 3 you’ve mentioned

Don't be such a pessimist. We have it in us.

 

[telsor]

Adelaide is a cultural issue, and getting over them is one of those things that you can't put a timeframe on.

Swans have the buddy contract, and while such a massive part of their cap is dead weight, they could have issues with recruitment and retention. In some ways, having a good bunch of kids coming through now isn't as big an advantage as you might think because they have to find the coin to keep them.

Hawthorn. Massive turnover coming, and how they come out the other side of it is a huge question mark.


Swans are probably the best placed, but there are way too many ifs, buts and maybes to say that with any confidence.

 

[telsor]

Don't forget that North Melbourne exist

Do they?

Really?

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Don't be such a pessimist. We have it in us.

Really don’t think we do, and I’ve been one of the most staunch optimists going around