Preview Rd 11 Geelong V GWS Sat 25th May 2024 434 pm @ KP

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I agree with the concept, but we can't deny we've got several under-performers (if not out-right passengers). I don't know whether it's form or a niggle, but Blicavs hasn't had the impact over the last several weeks that he normally has.

Same with Guthrie. Has a completely valid excuse, but the facts are he's not getting close to the same level of possessions.

We've been smashed in the middle for the past 3 weeks. Going back to what used to work is unlikely to fix that if the players can't compete at the level they used to.

I've gone off track with the "Neale as 2nd ruck". You don't have to agree with it, and even I have to admit it's kind of shoe-horning Neale in, but it gives Blicavs a break and is one (of several) options we could look at to try and break the rut our midfield is in.
What the stats show with midfield clearances etc are a bit deceiving. Yes you could mount an argument to say we've been "smashed" in the middle. I would tend to look at what's happening around the ground at 50/50 contests (ball ups / throw ins) and to the naked eye it seems that we're getting out muscled and are being out hunted for the ball.

I don't think it's an effort related problem. We did enough to get us to 7-0 albeit largely against sides lower down the ladder. But I think we're lacking a bit of attack on the ball which is what Dangerfield brings - and there's a noticeable lack of pace when we try and spread from a contest.

There's no magic fix - we've basically got the same playing group now that helped us get to 7-0. Guthrie and Rohan have come back into the team as well. Some of the in game moves are also counter intuitive I think to how C Scott wants to set up. We've had to try and use Blicavs more as an inside mid or permanent ruck in recent weeks - when his greatest value to the team is roaming the ground and only providing an occasional chop out in the ruck.
 
It seems that we are allowing it in order to set up in defence. It worked OK in the earlier matches but now we are giving the defenders too much time and space.
Yep it was working but with both Stew and JH off, and SDK still a bit wobbly we are getting killed there.

I'd persist with Cuthrie and maybe bring in Jeka for Kolo/JH, or Sir Humphries as an alternative for Cuthrie.
 
Couldn’t call it a top 4 decider just yet, but less likely we’ll be top 4 at seasons end if we drop this one. Our poor record v top teams is a concern. 7- zip would be undone and wasted if we drop next 4. Get it done for Tommy and bring the intent back! Ball watching , non accountability and getting beaten on work-rate doesn’t cut it!
 

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For those who thought the defenders were as guilty as the midfield:
King meanwhile thinks the Cats’ “problems are deeper,” questioning their defence after being “insipid in one-on-ones” against Gold Coast.

“They lost eight of 18 defensive one-on-ones. They’ve only lost more than eight one-on-one three times in Chris Scott’s 318 games, that’s how poor a night it was behind the ball,” he said.

“In conditions like that, you would’ve thought they would’ve been more dominant and stronger with bigger bodies. They failed the test, I can’t wait to watch the next couple of weeks to see if this is an event of trend.”
 
What the stats show with midfield clearances etc are a bit deceiving. Yes you could mount an argument to say we've been "smashed" in the middle. I would tend to look at what's happening around the ground at 50/50 contests (ball ups / throw ins) and to the naked eye it seems that we're getting out muscled and are being out hunted for the ball.

I don't think it's an effort related problem. We did enough to get us to 7-0 albeit largely against sides lower down the ladder. But I think we're lacking a bit of attack on the ball which is what Dangerfield brings - and there's a noticeable lack of pace when we try and spread from a contest.

There's no magic fix - we've basically got the same playing group now that helped us get to 7-0. Guthrie and Rohan have come back into the team as well. Some of the in game moves are also counter intuitive I think to how C Scott wants to set up. We've had to try and use Blicavs more as an inside mid or permanent ruck in recent weeks - when his greatest value to the team is roaming the ground and only providing an occasional chop out in the ruck.

Oh, I don't think it's an effort thing. That's a lazy excuse and probably not true 99% of the time it's rolled out.

We do have largely the same group that got us to 7-0, but several players are off the boil. Maybe not statistically (though Atkins is clearly down on disposals from his last few years) but more in impact.

To that, there's no clear solution. It's not a coaching problem - I think Scott did well to get as much out of our midfield as he can. It's more of a list problem - we just don't have the right players.

So at this point, there's two main ways to go:

#1: Back in the existing "top 23-24" group. I suspect this is the way we'll go, and the managing may slow down.

#2: Shuffle things around to find what works. We're not a team that drops senior players easily (Tuohy the only real exception this year), so unlikely the 3+ changes each week will continue - unless forced through injury, suspension etc.

Neither way is better than the other. If our core midfield group is not up to it, so be it. And it's unlikely bringing in Hardie, Mannagh, Knevitt etc. will do much to change it - though may help determine our 2025 list/team.

Thinking more about it, our good start feels like we're "locked in" with sticking with the established players. If we were 3-7 (season over), we could play around with the midfield mix - hell, the whole team - and the consequences would be minimal.

But with the even-ness of the 2024 competition, it'd be a crime to start over-experimenting and throw away what we have. So I guess we'll see if the old boys can find their touch again...
 
Played 10 games.
Haven't beaten a team sitting currently in the 8.
The highest current team we have beaten is 10th.

I only mention this because I just noticed it.

Doesn't mean a thing.
 
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I agree with the concept, but we can't deny we've got several under-performers (if not out-right passengers). I don't know whether it's form or a niggle, but Blicavs hasn't had the impact over the last several weeks that he normally has.

Same with Guthrie. Has a completely valid excuse, but the facts are he's not getting close to the same level of possessions.

We've been smashed in the middle for the past 3 weeks. Going back to what used to work is unlikely to fix that if the players can't compete at the level they used to.

I've gone off track with the "Neale as 2nd ruck". You don't have to agree with it, and even I have to admit it's kind of shoe-horning Neale in, but it gives Blicavs a break and is one (of several) options we could look at to try and break the rut our midfield is in.

Re Blicavs, 'impact' is so subjective. It hasn't helped that he's had to cover in the ruck for Stanley. Do agree that Neale as 2nd ruck could free him up, and with Hawkins and Cameron returning Neale could really do some damage on the 3rd or 4th tall defender.

Re Guthrie, and his level of possessions, he had 16 possessions from 57% TOG against Port - equivalent to 24 from 85% TOG. The week before he had 15 from 61%, and before that he had 27 on a HBF from 79% TOG. Possession count isn't a concern for him when taken in full context.
 
Duncan still the worry for me, and the issue of where he plays and how much he can impact games. All the attention in the media has been on Hawkins and Stanley. Duncan presents a bigger headache than those two in my opinion. A tough call might be looming for the coach. Tuohy stays in before Duncan too - at least he has moments where he's impacting.
I agree with almost everything you post but this is such a bad take. If Duncan is cooked, Tuohy has been in the incinerator for 24 months. A nice goal kicking cameo against Carlton doesn't change that.

We badly suffered when Duncan's level was awful (all game against Melbourne, first half against Port) or when he was missing (Gold Coast).

There's no guarantee he finds his round 1-7 form but we need to give him a chance to. He was a big part of our defensive-offensive transitions being slick and balances the backline out better. When he's missing or not impacting, we look scrappy back there and revert to lazy kicks down the line to contests.
 
Played 10 games.
Haven't beaten a team sitting currently in the 8.
The highest current team we have beaten is 10th.

I only mention this because I just noticed it.

Doesn't mean a thing.
You've talked about it most weeks (except for a couple was mentioning we'd only beaten Carlton when they were in there).
 
I agree with almost everything you post but this is such a bad take. If Duncan is cooked, Tuohy has been in the incinerator for 24 months. A nice goal kicking cameo against Carlton doesn't change that.

We badly suffered when Duncan's level was awful (all game against Melbourne, first half against Port) or when he was missing (Gold Coast).

There's no guarantee he finds his round 1-7 form but we need to give him a chance to. He was a big part of our defensive-offensive transitions being slick and balances the backline out better. When he's missing or not impacting, we look scrappy back there and revert to lazy kicks down the line to contests.
Just a personal observation on Duncan. Sometimes clubs are faced with tough calls on some players and it's the difference between success and failure.

Duncan for me is a very close watch - I'm just not sure we can nurse him through the year. I also think Tuohy is far more versatile - not saying he's a better player than Duncan - but the fact he can play multiple roles is a point of difference. I think the tell tale sign for me on Duncan is (compared to previous years) the coaches have not even bothered to throw him up around the ball. I suspect that's because if he can't win it, then he'll get burnt the other way by an opponent with faster legs.
 
Just a personal observation on Duncan. Sometimes clubs are faced with tough calls on some players and it's the difference between success and failure.

Duncan for me is a very close watch - I'm just not sure we can nurse him through the year. I also think Tuohy is far more versatile - not saying he's a better player than Duncan - but the fact he can play multiple roles is a point of difference. I think the tell tale sign for me on Duncan is (compared to previous years) the coaches have not even bothered to throw him up around the ball. I suspect that's because if he can't win it, then he'll get burnt the other way by an opponent with faster legs.
They actually have thrown him on the ball at times (I forget which matches...it was brief but I remember it by actually thinking "I'm not sure this is a good move").

I guess we have to disagree about Tuohy bringing more to the table. Tuohy does get thrown on a wing/forward flank a lot more this season yet still trails Duncan for score involvements by almost 1 a game. Duncan has 4 more effective disposals a game.

Duncan had the week off against Adelaide (baby) and had his best game of the season against Hawthorn. We probably tried to get too many games into him uninterrupted after that.

I simply think we have players to cover the wing/half forward areas we sometimes plug Tuohy into - Blicavs/O'Connor/Dempsey/Bowes/Miers. What we need is our clear best back 6 with a 7th rotation, and the capacity to throw Holmes into midfield to address that weakness until Dangerfield is back. Having just Duncan in the side achieves that. Having only Tuohy, or both Tuohy and Duncan, those are both sub-optimal options.

3 weeks of Duncan then one week off for Tuohy to step in is how I'd manage things.
 

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Re Blicavs, 'impact' is so subjective. It hasn't helped that he's had to cover in the ruck for Stanley. Do agree that Neale as 2nd ruck could free him up, and with Hawkins and Cameron returning Neale could really do some damage on the 3rd or 4th tall defender.
The first part about impact being subjective I agree with, to a degree. But you can clearly measure impact to a degree with various stats.

But I almost have the exact opposite view on the second point. The fact that Blicavs has spent time in the ruck is exactly the reason why he's been so valuable to us over those previous years. I'd err on giving him MORE time as a ruck while playing Conway (who can't run out as much of the game compared to Stanley).
 
Re Blicavs, 'impact' is so subjective. It hasn't helped that he's had to cover in the ruck for Stanley. Do agree that Neale as 2nd ruck could free him up, and with Hawkins and Cameron returning Neale could really do some damage on the 3rd or 4th tall defender.

Re Guthrie, and his level of possessions, he had 16 possessions from 57% TOG against Port - equivalent to 24 from 85% TOG. The week before he had 15 from 61%, and before that he had 27 on a HBF from 79% TOG. Possession count isn't a concern for him when taken in full context.

Yeah, Stanley's sudden decline has really thrown a spanner in the set-up. Will be interested to see how that plays out but if Stanley doesn't find form again, Blicavs is going to get dragged into that role a lot more.

Fair call with the Guthrie stats, but if he can't play 70%-ish* what's he even doing in the team? That's not for you or anyone outside the coaching team to answer, but they skipped VFL on the basis that the training was even better prep (apparently). Yet he's been nursed through these past few weeks and when we needed our senior players to step up against GC, he was pretty much absent - along with a lot of others, of course (though hard to believe the "we were just managing him" lines rolled out post-game).



* I know we're heavily rotating mids, again probably to try and mitigate our weakness there. But we need at least 1-2 more "anchors" in the middle beyond Danger (who's played 73%, 75%, and 82% in his 3 completed games).
 
The Giants could not move the ball on Saturday. They have temporarily lost that connection that made them very good for a span of 20 or so matches.

The easiest way to fix that problem will be to win a ton of quality clearances. I am sure that will be their main focus, beating up on our small midfield and weak ruck division.

We have to defend the centre bounce much better than we did against the Gold Coast.

The ground holds no fears for them that is for sure. In two recent seasons they have to come Geelong in dreadful form and found something to ignite their season.

Will need to dig very deep to scrap out two wins until Danger returns and Guthrie finds form (I still believe he will).
 
It seems that we are allowing it in order to set up in defence. It worked OK in the earlier matches but now we are giving the defenders too much time and space.
I've only seen us live once - Bulldogs in Gather Round.
We virtually conceded the first 2-3 kicks from kick in around the boundary line and then squeezed them.
Most times we forced a turnover and counter attacked from half back / wing - to great effect.

I think our pressure has dropped considerably lately which has negated this tactic and also whilst we have gone OK in clearance numbers the quality of opposition clearance has skyrocketed. This is creating easy F50 entries and catching our defenders out majorly. Worse still they are easy shots on goals as evidenced by opposition conversion.
We played a more patient build up in 2022 but went quick when we had the chance - maybe we will lean slightly more in that direction over the next few weeks and make it more a contested game.
 
They actually have thrown him on the ball at times (I forget which matches...it was brief but I remember it by actually thinking "I'm not sure this is a good move").

I guess we have to disagree about Tuohy bringing more to the table. Tuohy does get thrown on a wing/forward flank a lot more this season yet still trails Duncan for score involvements by almost 1 a game. Duncan has 4 more effective disposals a game.

Duncan had the week off against Adelaide (baby) and had his best game of the season against Hawthorn. We probably tried to get too many games into him uninterrupted after that.

I simply think we have players to cover the wing/half forward areas we sometimes plug Tuohy into - Blicavs/O'Connor/Dempsey/Bowes/Miers. What we need is our clear best back 6 with a 7th rotation, and the capacity to throw Holmes into midfield to address that weakness until Dangerfield is back. Having just Duncan in the side achieves that. Having only Tuohy, or both Tuohy and Duncan, those are both sub-optimal options.

3 weeks of Duncan then one week off for Tuohy to step in is how I'd manage things.
Would also be tempted to give Humphries a game V Tigers.
He looks very promising and has a great leg ( both sides) which would suit a distributor role from the back half.
 
I would like them to do that as I think we can’t afford Hawkins, Duncan, Guthrie, 2E, Rohan all in from a team defence (running back and filling the spots). And Rohan and Guthrie will prob get more time to show whether back to peak…2E is at bottom of the pecking for those players.

But I can’t see them doing it yet. It would be close to a death knell to have him miss 3rd time before half way?

He's already missed/been managed for 3 matches:
Round 3 vs Hawthorn
Round 6 vs Brisbane
Round 9 vs Port

Tuohy has played no more than 2 consecutive matches so far this season, and seemed to be on the same management plan as Stanley in terms of only playing on 2 game lots
 
My greatest fear this week is the selectors pick a team to celebrate Tom Hawkins milestone at the expense of a team to win the game.
Care to elaborate on what exactly this means?

Hawkins, Cameron, Duncan, SDK all seem like straight forward ins.
 
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