Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Footy Smarts]

You’re right, I read the idiotic press from the media and assumed it was a widely held belief.

I wonder, Cats fans - do you see a lot of similarities with your team and the Hawks team of 2016?

We went 17-5 that year and similarly, a lot of people were applauding us for rebuilding on the run.

We had some great older players, sprinkled with talented youth like

Brad Hill (23)
Liam Shiels (25)
Will Langford (25)
Ryan Burton (19)
Sicily (21)

Unfortunately, we soon realized once our veterans retired (or were forced out too soon), it was a huge, huge drop off.

I think with hindsight, our inability to really invest in talented young players (due to our ladder position), is what failed to get us through.

Will Geelong be any diff?

Just looking at the team you picked in the QF that year I'd say it's a bit different.

Both teams had a lot of old quality but Hawthorn had much more 26-30 whereas Geelong has much more 25 and under talent.

Because of the compromised drafts Hawthorn had 2 top 20 picks from 2011-2015. One of them was mature aged Isaac Smith who was already 27 that year. Geelong has 6 top 20 picks from 2019-2024 on their list and all 23 or under.

Then some subsequent things happened like paying up big for Mitchell, O'Meara and Wingard, Hill leaving, Rioli retiring early, etc.

Overall I'd say Hawthorn were aiming to try and win 1 more while their quality 25-30 year olds were still around. Geelong has quality at the top and bottom ends age wise and are trying to develop the kids quickly enough before the old guys hit the wall. It worked well for first 7 weeks but not so well recently.

 

[Mr Meow]

Let's compare the performers 25 and under this season, let's say something like a best 18 (oldest first):

Richmond

Young
Bolton
Miller
Balta
Mansell
Kozzy
Ross
Ryan
Cumberland
Dow
Ralphsmith
MRJ
Trezise
Sonsie
Banks
Gibcus
Brown
Campbell

FB: Trezise Gibcus Young
HB: Brown Miller Banks

C: Sonsie Ross Ralpsmith
FOL: Ryan Dow Bolton

HF: Mansell Kozzy MRJ
FF: Cumberland Balta Campbell

Be honest Meteoric Rise , are the bolded players (and Greeb) doing enough?

Martin, Prestia and Rioli are the 3 who have stopped this being a 100 point margin at half time.

 

[MisterMarcus]

Well.....

A few of our old blokes may be close to hitting the wall.

A few of our younger players might need another year or so in the system to become fully-developed AFL players

A few of our guys might be struggling with being thrust into AFL too early or out of position.

A few guys might not make it.....



But at least we aren't Richmond.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Only 4 players under 22 in the side tonight. Could end up a lot worse than this in the next 12-24 months.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Geelong are not rebuilding they never have and probably never will.

They will replenish that midfield with a trade or two(very good at filling weaknesses) along with a ruck and build around a F/HF line of Cameron, Stengle, O.Henry.

Miers is having a outstanding season Holmes was a lone standout in the middle with some support from Bowes.

Conway is raw as heck but had 25 H/O and 21 disposals and both his set shots went OOB but tons of potential there.

TLDR Geelong will be more than fine Richmond however are in a massive hole.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Be honest Meteoric Rise , are the bolded players (and Greeb) doing enough?

Martin, Prestia and Rioli are the 3 who have stopped this being a 100 point margin at half time.

Miller was on Hipwood.

I backed Hipwood to get 2 goals in multis where every other campaignering leg won.

So to the question as to whether Miller is doing enough I would say he is doing way too much the @rsehole.

 

[Mr Meow]

Miller was on Hipwood.

I backed Hipwood to get 2 goals in multis where every other campaignering leg won.

So to the question as to whether Miller is doing enough I would say he is doing way too much the @rsehole.

No matter who they play, do NOT trust Hipwood to do anything. Your boy Rayner was a much more sensible option.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Only 4 players under 22 in the side tonight. Could end up a lot worse than this in the next 12-24 months.

That makes about as much sense as employing James Brayshaw to commentate on footy.

Gibcus, Rioli Jnr, Campbell all missed through injury, all best 22 and are under 22 and will return well within your 12-24 month time frame.

Oh and if you didn't notice, joining them on the injury list were:

Lynch Taranto Hopper Baker Graham Ross Banks Clarke Trezise and Grimes.

Running around on the park in their places were guys sitting all the way down to 39th choice on our list. And fully half the side had played under 50 AFL games. No team in the FL fielded more players with under 50 games this weekend.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

No matter who they play, do NOT trust Hipwood to do anything. Your boy Rayner was a much more sensible option.

You only bet on things you trust will happen, you won't get too far.

 

[Footy Smarts]

It's interesting how aggressive Geelong is getting with their rebuild now.

Danger, Guthrie and Rohan out injured. But they've still dropped useful role players with limited upside in Bews, Parfitt and O'Connor and Conway is being preferred to Stanley.

The idea that Conway, Neale, Dempsey, Mullin and Clark would all play but a fit O'Connor would be dropped felt crazy at the start of the year.

I wonder what made them pull these levers now. My guess is they've seen enough and don't think they're good enough to win the flag this year without a couple of players coming from nowhere. So they're going to give them that chance at the risk of losing games in the meantime. And if it doesn't work this year (it almost certainly won't) it'll set us up well for the future.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Don't get any big ideas about stealing our draft picks Geelong.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

****, you will probably get pick 12 or something for finishing 10th. That will get you another Tanner Bruhn.

 

[Daka]

Geelong starting to lose a lot after a good start even at home.

They got to be weary they still hit the draft imo they have good kids like Dempsey but they need more especially around the midfield.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Geelong starting to lose a lot after a good start even at home.

They got to be weary they still hit the draft imo they have good kids like Dempsey but they need more especially around the midfield.

More kids around the ball won't fix the problem. Conway, Holmes, Clark, & Bruhn in there is young enough as it is.

Unless you're picking up a Reid or Daicos (which we won't be) getting even younger in there doesn't help.

We'll pick more mids this year (as I hope we do) for future proofing and all of that as we continue to roll over the list, but it's not going to fix the problem.

That group is 2 years away from being mature enough to match it with the best on their own.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Geelong starting to lose a lot after a good start even at home.

They got to be weary they still hit the draft imo they have good kids like Dempsey but they need more especially around the midfield.

Definitely not lacking kids around midfield. 7 Geelong players had more than 1 centre bounce attendance last night. 5 of those were under 22 (Holmes, Bruhn, Conway, Clark and Neale).

Our problem is our (former) gun older mids are injured, our prime aged mids are no good and our young mids while looking promising aren't ready to shoulder the full load. Unless Danger and Guthrie turn the clock back on return from injury there's likely to be a bunch more ugly midfield days this season.

 

[sr36]

Definitely not lacking kids around midfield. 7 Geelong players had more than 1 centre bounce attendance last night. 5 of those were under 22 (Holmes, Bruhn, Conway, Clark and Neale).

Our problem is our (former) gun older mids are injured, our prime aged mids are no good and our young mids while looking promising aren't ready to shoulder the full load. Unless Danger and Guthrie turn the clock back on return from injury there's likely to be a bunch more ugly midfield days this season.

The question is who will you poach?

 

[NetworkNerd]

The question is who will you poach?

Sam Walsh is a good Geelong region lad but not out of contract until 2026.. unless the cats get him on a trade next year before free agency kicks in

 

[Footy Smarts]

The question is who will you poach?

Not sure there's anyone out there this year.

If we go for a mature mid they better be a real difference maker and not an O'Meara, Hopper type you get sucked in to overpaying for. Not sure Bailey Smith is the answer after an ACL. Perkins would be a good get but he'd be adding another young kid to the midfield setup rather than a mature body.

I think it's time to take our medicine and let the kids develop for 18 months then see what we need.

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

I can’t believe it’s all on the line on Saturday. Massive week ahead.

 

[BF Tiger]

Given the right set of results next weekend, of which only one I think is highly unlikely, and Geelong could be out of the eight.

That highly unlikely result is Richmond beating Geelong by 12+ goals.

 

[STPer18]

The battle of the battlers. May the least worst team win.

 

[BF Tiger]

Given most of the posting in this thread neither supporter set really gets to crow next week.

Fans of both sides have pretty much trashed the lists of the opposition. So if Richmond beat Geelong… well they’ve just beaten a shit Geelong team with no talent (according to Richmond supporters) coming through. Is that really worth bragging about?

Same same if Geelong beat Richmond.

 

[STPer18]

Given most of the posting in this thread neither supporter set really gets to crow next week.

Fans of both sides have pretty much trashed the lists of the opposition. So if Richmond beat Geelong… well they’ve just beaten a shit Geelong team with no talent (according to Richmond supporters) coming through. Is that really worth bragging about?

Same same if Geelong beat Richmond.

Yes, but the winner will brag relentlessly regardless.

 

[Muddiemoose]

Yes, but the winner will brag relentlessly regardless.

Na we have our get out of jail free card where we can just blame your cheat stadium

 

[Footy Smarts]

Na we have our get out of jail free card where we can just blame your cheat stadium

And don't you want draft picks anyway? Literally no way Geelong can win this week.