List Mgmt. Next club to face a rebuild.

[Obeanie1]

So with only three more drafts until Tasmania starts taking draftees which club has mistimed their rebuild.

Clubs have been planning and actioning rebuilds before the next expansion team dilutes the draft as has happened previously.

North has been rebuilding forever and if they cant keep good players coming out of contract they will be treading water.

Hawks started what four drafts ago?

Eagles started two or three drafts ago.

So which club will be looking to rebuild next? And have they made an error of judgement with the timing of the 19th club entering the competition?

 

[CrowToon]

I honestly think given the ridiculous time rebuilds now take, along with the many cautionary tales of how they don't work out (and even when they do like Brisbane they still don't guarantee success) that full rebuilds are dead and rightfully so. Tasmania coming will just be the final nail but I would imagine Geelong forever top up is the blueprint for others to attempt to follow (though they won't be able to replicate it to Geelong level). Too many players on the field to ever risk it for that one or two big fish.

 

[TiAn_]

I’m not sure any of the Roos, Hawks or Eagles will be out of the woods by the time Tasmania starts picking apart the drafts.

E.g. the Eagles are the most competitive of those three at the moment but they’re fourth in the league for minutes played by players aged 29+ this year, behind only the Cats, Pies and Lions.

I think clubs won’t contemplate a scorched earth rebuild any more given how long it’s taking the current sides that have tried it to crawl their way out.

 

[rapidfire7]

Some clubs are now in a position where a full rebuild is required, but as clubs like Sydney and Geelong have shown (and even teams like the Bulldogs and Giants to an extent), it's best to rebuild gradually on the run before it gets to that point.

Full rebuilds are painful and usually guarantee around 5 years of being a cellar dweller, or at least of not playing finals..

On top of that, if you don't nail most of your picks, it ain't gonna work, and it will take even longer, causing even more frustration for fans.

I think some clubs need to get more creative in their recruitment strategies, and use avenues like free agency more and scour the state leagues for mature talent to greater effect etc.

 

[WillHayward]

Pies gonna be in trouble soon imo.
Elliott, Pendlebury, Mitchell, Sidebottom gone.

 

[rapidfire7]

I honestly think given the ridiculous time rebuilds now take, along with the many cautionary tales of how they don't work out (and even when they do like Brisbane they still don't guarantee success) that full rebuilds are dead and rightfully so. Tasmania coming will just be the final nail but I would imagine Geelong forever top up is the blueprint for others to attempt to follow (though they won't be able to replicate it to Geelong level). Too many players on the field to ever risk it for that one or two big fish.

Well put. Full rebuilds should be avoided at all costs, and seen as a absolute last resort measure. They cause much misery to all concerned, and rarely eventuate into the ultimate success anyway (although it did eventually in Melbourne's case after over a decade of hell)

 

[Footy Smarts]

I honestly think given the ridiculous time rebuilds now take, along with the many cautionary tales of how they don't work out (and even when they do like Brisbane they still don't guarantee success) that full rebuilds are dead and rightfully so. Tasmania coming will just be the final nail but I would imagine Geelong forever top up is the blueprint for others to attempt to follow (though they won't be able to replicate it to Geelong level). Too many players on the field to ever risk it for that one or two big fish.

It's not really been topping up by Geelong though. We're strong again now because our drafting since 2016 has been really good.

Yes you can fill out your list with some free agents or cheapish trades. And you might be able to target 1 superstar every 5 years or so. But if you don't bring through quality draftees your list will be left very thin very quickly.

If we hadn't brought in Stewart, Z Guthrie, J Henry, Parfitt, O'Connor, Miers, Atkins, De Koning, Close, Holmes, Dempsey and Tim Kelly (effectively traded for Cameron) all with picks outside 18 since 2016 we'd be nowhere right now.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Well put. Full rebuilds should be avoided at all costs, and seen as a absolute last resort measure.

I'm not sure full rebuilds can be avoided. If you draft and develop really badly for 5 years you will be forced into a full rebuild.

When that gap of players should be maturing you'll fall away. Then it will be difficult to attract good players without paying massive overs which will hurt in the long run. And it'll be harder to keep your good players.

If you finish bottom 4 with nothing in the 19-23 age bracket coming through you're locked into a full rebuild whether you want to be or not.

 

[Obeanie1]

Well Collingwood has come out and just stated no rebuild, we dont do that. The draft is broken and so we will target players to trade in.

Pies in the enviable position of being a big Melbourne based destination club with ANZAC Day fixtures and MCG games. Why wouldnt the LDU's of the comp go to a club like that?

Pies will feed off the weak clubs and just keep trading in quality either free or on the cheap.

 

[Blue1980]

I'm not sure full rebuilds can be avoided. If you draft and develop really badly for 5 years you will be forced into a full rebuild.

When that gap of players should be maturing you'll fall away. Then it will be difficult to attract good players without paying massive overs which will hurt in the long run. And it'll be harder to keep your good players.

If you finish bottom 4 with nothing in the 19-23 age bracket coming through you're locked into a full rebuild whether you want to be or not.

Someone will have to do rebuilds as clubs do fall away and someone has to be at the bottom.

It is only a last resort measure, but constant topping up when you are clearly no longer a contender sets you back years.

 

[76woodenspooners]

Pies gonna be in trouble soon imo.
Elliott, Pendlebury, Mitchell, Sidebottom gone.

+ Howe and Cox,

+ Mihocek. WHE and Crisp now over 30 and not far behind them.

Pendlebury, Mitchell and Cox being the most problematic to cover IMO.

 

[smish]

Someone will have to do rebuilds as clubs do fall away and someone has to be at the bottom.

It is only a last resort measure, but constant topping up when you are clearly no longer a contender sets you back years.

Every club say they will never rebuild until they have to. It's just hollow words.

• After Hawthorn won four flags and finished top four for 7 out of 8 years we were attracting players left right and centre the club never looked like facing a rebuild
• After Richmond won three in four years and were attracting players left right and centre and still hitting the draft the club never looked like facing a rebuild.
• Adelaide were favorites to win a flag and after 2019 were stacked with first round picks and a senior core, they looked to be in a great position going forward.
• WCE won a flag and backed it up with two top 5 finishes and lots of first round young talent. Look where they are now.
• Over 14 years Collingwood have played in four grand finals, won two premierships, had six top 4 finishes, brought in a generational player and several other first round draft picks but are staring down the barrel of a rebuild. Similar could be said for Geelong.

People can be naive all they like and think that will never happen to my club, but the wheels always turn.

 

[Lach72]

Brisbane

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

Richmond.

Im surprised this is even a question given how obvious the answer is.

 

[WillHayward]

+ Howe and Cox,

+ Mihocek. WHE and Crisp now over 30 and not far behind them.

Pendlebury, Mitchell and Cox being the most problematic to cover IMO.

That's 9 so half the side.

 

[boncer34]

Probably Hawthorn. Over 25% of their best 22 will be 29+ this year according to their fans.

Still plenty to replace.

 

[WillHayward]

Richmond.

Im surprised this is even a question given how obvious the answer is.

True

Are they already rebuilding or do you think they are still in denial?

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

True

Are they already rebuilding or do you think they are still in denial?

Went from in denial (trading for Koschitzke) to now accepting it id say.

I think Yze has the stomach for it and they made a good change this way. I expect they will do a better job with the rebuild then Hawks/North have atleast

 

[juss]

Richmond.

Im surprised this is even a question given how obvious the answer is.

We've started now, we're probably not the "next side", I'd say we're the most recent side. Things were put into place in our 2023 trade period to commence it, the acquiring of a bunch of picks is directly to cash them in for upgrades in this draft.

 

[Elixuh]

Brisbane

We are rebuilding while at the top of the ladder tho.

No.2 and 12 pick in 2022 draft

This year another top 5 draftee
(currently projected best available) + projected first round academy mid.

How good are draft rorts?

 

[My Tilly]

If we hadn't brought in Stewart, Z Guthrie, J Henry, Parfitt, O'Connor, Miers, Atkins, De Koning, Close, Holmes, Dempsey and Tim Kelly (effectively traded for Cameron) all with picks outside 18 since 2016 we'd be nowhere right now.

Bring in Smith and Cadman to replace Tuohy and Hawk, we can hang around for a while yet

 

[STPer18]

On top of that, if you don't nail most of your picks, it ain't gonna work, and it will take even longer, causing even more frustration for fans.

I think some clubs need to get more creative in their recruitment strategies, and use avenues like free agency more and scour the state leagues for mature talent to greater effect etc.

Watching Essendon yesterday and two of their best players these days are Durham(mid-season draft) and Martin(rookie). Everything else being equal you only get one early draft pick every year, so if you're relying entirely on that to pull you out of the doldrums then you're in for an extended stint down the bottom.

 

[Cleansweep17]

1. Pies

2. Lions

3. Geelong

 

[STPer18]

But yeah the obvious answer is Richmond by a landslide you'd think.

 

[Cleansweep17]

But yeah the obvious answer is Richmond by a landslide you'd think.

Nah we are already in a rebuild. The question would be the next team after us.