Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Meteoric Rise]

so does Richmond not have the best youth then? but what about the gen-forwards specifically under 27?

The easiest way to put it for you is probably:

Lalor 18yo, Campbell 20yo, Mansell(24yo) and Brown(21yo) have had terrific starts to the season. A load of other young players are looking at least ok. And 4 of our top 5 draft picks from the last 4 years have not been seen at AFL level yet due to long term injury issues, but a couple of those are likely to be seem soon.

Am I doing this right if I say that according to you this means our young player stocks are no good?

 

[Wojcinski]

The easiest way to put it for you is probably:

Lalor 18yo, Campbell 20yo, Mansell(24yo) and Brown(21yo) have had terrific starts to the season. A load of other young players are looking at least ok. And 4 of our top 5 draft picks from the last 4 years have not been seen at AFL level yet due to long term injury issues, but a couple of those are likely to be seem soon.

Am I doing this right if I say that according to you this means our young player stocks are no good?

No I'm just curious because previously you used AFL player rating categories with really specific parameters to explain how Richmond has the best youth, but now you're no longer using those ratings for some reason?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

No I'm just curious because previously you used AFL player rating categories with really specific parameters to explain how Richmond has the best youth, but now you're no longer using those ratings for some reason?

You want me to list every player’s rating in every post?

My opening salvo in pulling the thread back up was to list the young players from both teams who have started the season with notably good player ratings.

Yet you seem to be in a tailspin over it. Very strange place Geelong.

 

[juss]

Other than on Bigfooty, it's not always about Richmond v Geelong.

I'm really happy with how our future is looking so far this year, lots of promise and there's still more in the reserves to come. Once Clarke, Gibcus and Hotton get back from their ACLs that's added bonus too.

 

[Mr Meow]

Other than on Bigfooty, it's not always about Richmond v Geelong.

I'm really happy with how our future is looking so far this year, lots of promise and there's still more in the reserves to come. Once Clarke, Gibcus and Hotton get back from their ACLs that's added bonus too.

MR keeps bumping the thread with a specific comparison. Then mocks or diminishes how Geelong are doing. There's your source.

 

[Wojcinski]

You want me to list every player’s rating in every post?

My opening salvo in pulling the thread back up was to list the young players from both teams who have started the season with notably good player ratings.

Yet you seem to be in a tailspin over it. Very strange place Geelong.

can we deviate for a second here, do you think AFL player ratings are the best source of data to determine how good a player is?

 

[FootyLad0]

Hang on!….are the media lauding how good the Cats young players are?
Could it be that Geelong is ELITE at development and the poll was correct?

Could the Tigers fans in here be wrong?
No….no it’s the #GeelongMediaMafia and Geelong fans who are wrong….

 

[STPer18]

View attachment 2277114

Hang on!….are the media lauding how good the Cats young players are?
Could it be that Geelong is ELITE at development and the poll was correct?

Could the Tigers fans in here be wrong?
No….no it’s the #GeelongMediaMafia and Geelong fans who are wrong….

View attachment 2277115

I understand there's too much talented youf to fit in the one graphic, but reigning Rising Star winner Ollie Dempsey (22) should consider himself stiff!

 

[tiger_tough]

I understand there's too much talented youf to fit in the one graphic, but reigning Rising Star winner Ollie Dempsey (22) should consider himself stiff!

Also, including a bloke that turn 25 this year as 'young guns'.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

can we deviate for a second here, do you think AFL player ratings are the best source of data to determine how good a player is?

The absolute best indicators of how good a player is are:

1 Their performance and impact in finals
2 Their market value

Sadly, these are not provided for us on a match by match basis. But that’s fine, guess what is? For every player, every match, providing an easy and credible way to measure a player’s whole performance.

Is a player’s rating always an accurate measure of the value of his performance? For the answer to that just have a look at my two preferred methods…

If you measured say Dustin Martin’s value in finals after any of his first three finals for example, you would be forgiven for thinking he was not going to be the most valuable finals player in history. If you measured Brodie Grundy’s worth by his market value at the point he fooled Collingwood into making him a rich man you would be forgiven for thinking he was one of the best handful of ruckmen ever.

Use any method you like, but the only one we get a reliable report from every match is player ratings - and perhaps the loose perceptions of certain Collingwood and Geelong supporters who seem magically to be able to give you a more accurate ranking of every single player at any given time.

Like doppleganger who on the D.A.I.C.Os thread stated Dustin Martin’s had one good season.

Like various Cats supporters who have stated there is little or no value in the Richmond youth.

Or you specifically wasn’t it who goes by SuperCoach scores?

Excuse me if I start from the objective and meticulously collected evidence of player ratings from time to time when forming an up to date picture of their performance.

 

[Wojcinski]

The absolute best indicators of how good a player is are:

1 Their performance and impact in finals
2 Their market value

Sadly, these are not provided for us on a match by match basis. But that’s fine, guess what is? For every player, every match, providing an easy and credible way to measure a player’s whole performance.

Is a player’s rating always an accurate measure of the value of his performance? For the answer to that just have a look at my two preferred methods…

If you measured say Dustin Martin’s value in finals after any of his first three finals for example, you would be forgiven for thinking he was not going to be the most valuable finals player in history. If you measured Brodie Grundy’s worth by his market value at the point he fooled Collingwood into making him a rich man you would be forgiven for thinking he was one of the best handful of ruckmen ever.

Use any method you like, but the only one we get a reliable report from every match is player ratings - and perhaps the loose perceptions of certain Collingwood and Geelong supporters who seem magically to be able to give you a more accurate ranking of every single player at any given time.

Like doppleganger who on the D.A.I.C.Os thread stated Dustin Martin’s had one good season.

Like various Cats supporters who have stated there is little or no value in the Richmond youth.

Or you specifically wasn’t it who goes by SuperCoach scores?

Excuse me if I start from the objective and meticulously collected evidence of player ratings from time to time when forming an up to date picture of their performance.

Who is a better, Sandy Brock or Sam Taylor?

Josh Ward or Josh Dunkley?

Nick Daicos or Mitchell Hinge?

Sam Lalor or Lachie Neale?

 

[doppleganger]

Use any method you like, but the only one we get a reliable report from every match is player ratings

I agree. PlaYA RaTiNGs are pretty good judge of post 2010 players.

The elite of the elite

GAJ career player rating avg of 17
P.Dangerfield career player rating avg of 16.49
Bont career player rating avg of 16.45

Daylight back to Pendles

Pendles career player rating avg of 15.2 (even with 400+ games dragging his avg down)

Then you drop below 15, with a group of modern day greats who have a career avg above 14.5

N.Fyfe career player rating avg of 14.82
C.Oliver career player rating avg of 14.73
M.Gawn career player rating avg of 14.56
J. Kennedy (Syd) career player rating avg of 14.52
R. Sloane career player rating avg of 14.51

Dusty not at that level, as his career player Rating avg was below 14.5

Sloane, Kennedy, Oliver all better than Dusty according to plAyA ratings.

Daicos is 13.82 and rising...by the end of 2025 his PlaYA RaTinG avg will also be above Dusty and he ain't even in his primer yet

 

[PhatBoy]

Also, including a bloke that turn 25 this year as 'young guns'.

You’re right he should be pensioned off

 

[Mr Meow]

Also, including a bloke that turn 25 this year as 'young guns'.

Given how many players we (and other clubs) have had playing good footy to 32-35 years old lately, I wouldn't say 24 being called young is a howler. It's closer to peak than rookie, but closer to emerging/improving than veteran. So many players, including Dusty, put their best work together aged 26 to 30 years old.

It gets a bit boring if we can only look at 18-21 year olds with 3-50 senior matches. Although that timeframe is more positive for Richmond than 18-24.

 

[tiger_tough]

You’re right he should be pensioned off

Given how many players we (and other clubs) have had playing good footy to 32-35 years old lately, I wouldn't say 24 being called young is a howler. It's closer to peak than rookie, but closer to emerging/improving than veteran. So many players, including Dusty, put their best work together aged 26 to 30 years old.

It gets a bit boring if we can only look at 18-21 year olds with 3-50 senior matches. Although that timeframe is more positive for Richmond than 18-24.

 

[PhatBoy]

Ok so 24 is old now because GIF.

Gotcha.

 

[tiger_tough]

Ok so 24 is old now because GIF.

Gotcha.

A guy turning 25 this year wouldn't be included in any credible 'young guns' list, no.

Relax, it's not having a dig at the Cats, or their players, more so the article. **** me, cats fans are precious.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I agree. PlaYA RaTiNGs are pretty good judge of post 2010 players.

The elite of the elite

GAJ career player rating avg of 17
P.Dangerfield career player rating avg of 16.49
Bont career player rating avg of 16.45

Daylight back to Pendles

Pendles career player rating avg of 15.2 (even with 400+ games dragging his avg down)

Then you drop below 15, with a group of modern day greats who have a career avg above 14.5

N.Fyfe career player rating avg of 14.82
C.Oliver career player rating avg of 14.73
M.Gawn career player rating avg of 14.56
J. Kennedy (Syd) career player rating avg of 14.52
R. Sloane career player rating avg of 14.51

Dusty not at that level, as his career player Rating avg was below 14.5

Sloane, Kennedy, Oliver all better than Dusty according to plAyA ratings.

Daicos is 13.82 and rising...by the end of 2025 his PlaYA RaTinG avg will also be above Dusty and he ain't even in his primer yet

I wonder how many of these players had average finals ratings around 19?

 

[PhatBoy]

Neale - 32 in May
Cripps - 30
Bontempelli -29
Petracca - 29
Gawn - 33
Cameron - 32

I would say at full fitness these have been on a consistent basis apart from Daicos probably close to the best 6 players in the league over the past few years. Maybe Curnow (who is 28).

Some might argue the Sydney guys but they really only hit their straps last year. You could throw Hogan in on that basis who is 30.

So you’re going to quibble over a player who’s 8 months shy of 25 being considered young?

 

[PhatBoy]

A guy turning 25 this year wouldn't be included in any credible 'young guns' list, no.

Relax, it's not having a dig at the Cats, or their players, more so the article. **** me, cats fans are precious.

Well to me given what I just said about where most (not all but most) of the consistently ‘best’ players seem to be age wise i would think that it is still pretty young yeah

 

[tiger_tough]

Well to me given what I just said about where most (not all but most) of the consistently ‘best’ players seem to be age wise i would think that it is still pretty young yeah

 

[Mr Meow]

A guy turning 25 this year wouldn't be included in any credible 'young guns' list, no.

Relax, it's not having a dig at the Cats, or their players, more so the article. **** me, cats fans are precious.

Have you realised that people simply responded to your point calmly with a different perspective, and it is only your last paragraph here that is actually going ad hominem and throwing a tantrum of sorts?

Nothing said was unreasonable or aggressive. Post another gif if you understand what I'm saying.

 

[Mr Meow]

Neale - 32 in May
Cripps - 30
Bontempelli -29
Petracca - 29
Gawn - 33
Cameron - 32

I would say at full fitness these have been on a consistent basis apart from Daicos probably close to the best 6 players in the league over the past few years. Maybe Curnow (who is 28).

Some might argue the Sydney guys but they really only hit their straps last year. You could throw Hogan in on that basis who is 30.

So you’re going to quibble over a player who’s 8 months shy of 25 being considered young?

Hogan, Greene, Libba, Treloar, Stewart, Sicily, Sinclair, Heeney have been up there too. All in that 29-33 range. Definitely a different age profile to the Holmes, Smith, SDK type players I would've thought - who you'd hope will keep improving over the next 5 years.

If being pedantic you could split players into 1 of 5 or 6 age profiles to stop anyone having a tantrum about "young gun" 23-24 year olds.

 

[tiger_tough]

Have you realised that people simply responded to your point calmly with a different perspective, and it is only your last paragraph here that is actually going ad hominem and throwing a tantrum of sorts?

Nothing said was unreasonable or aggressive. Post another gif if you understand what I'm saying.

It's okay, precious.

 

[Mr Meow]

It's okay, precious.

Ironically it was you being precious about "young gun" categorisation in the first place.

No gif = no understanding. Send one once you do.