Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Footy Smarts]

You’re right, I read the idiotic press from the media and assumed it was a widely held belief.

I wonder, Cats fans - do you see a lot of similarities with your team and the Hawks team of 2016?

We went 17-5 that year and similarly, a lot of people were applauding us for rebuilding on the run.

We had some great older players, sprinkled with talented youth like

Brad Hill (23)
Liam Shiels (25)
Will Langford (25)
Ryan Burton (19)
Sicily (21)

Unfortunately, we soon realized once our veterans retired (or were forced out too soon), it was a huge, huge drop off.

I think with hindsight, our inability to really invest in talented young players (due to our ladder position), is what failed to get us through.

Will Geelong be any diff?

Just looking at the team you picked in the QF that year I'd say it's a bit different.

Both teams had a lot of old quality but Hawthorn had much more 26-30 whereas Geelong has much more 25 and under talent.

Because of the compromised drafts Hawthorn had 2 top 20 picks from 2011-2015. One of them was mature aged Isaac Smith who was already 27 that year. Geelong has 6 top 20 picks from 2019-2024 on their list and all 23 or under.

Then some subsequent things happened like paying up big for Mitchell, O'Meara and Wingard, Hill leaving, Rioli retiring early, etc.

Overall I'd say Hawthorn were aiming to try and win 1 more while their quality 25-30 year olds were still around. Geelong has quality at the top and bottom ends age wise and are trying to develop the kids quickly enough before the old guys hit the wall. It worked well for first 7 weeks but not so well recently.

 

[Mr Meow]

Let's compare the performers 25 and under this season, let's say something like a best 18 (oldest first):

Richmond

Young
Bolton
Miller
Balta
Mansell
Kozzy
Ross
Ryan
Cumberland
Dow
Ralphsmith
MRJ
Trezise
Sonsie
Banks
Gibcus
Brown
Campbell

FB: Trezise Gibcus Young
HB: Brown Miller Banks

C: Sonsie Ross Ralpsmith
FOL: Ryan Dow Bolton

HF: Mansell Kozzy MRJ
FF: Cumberland Balta Campbell

Be honest Meteoric Rise , are the bolded players (and Greeb) doing enough?

Martin, Prestia and Rioli are the 3 who have stopped this being a 100 point margin at half time.

 

[MisterMarcus]

Well.....

A few of our old blokes may be close to hitting the wall.

A few of our younger players might need another year or so in the system to become fully-developed AFL players

A few of our guys might be struggling with being thrust into AFL too early or out of position.

A few guys might not make it.....



But at least we aren't Richmond.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Only 4 players under 22 in the side tonight. Could end up a lot worse than this in the next 12-24 months.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Geelong are not rebuilding they never have and probably never will.

They will replenish that midfield with a trade or two(very good at filling weaknesses) along with a ruck and build around a F/HF line of Cameron, Stengle, O.Henry.

Miers is having a outstanding season Holmes was a lone standout in the middle with some support from Bowes.

Conway is raw as heck but had 25 H/O and 21 disposals and both his set shots went OOB but tons of potential there.

TLDR Geelong will be more than fine Richmond however are in a massive hole.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Geelong are not rebuilding they never have and probably never will.

They will replenish that midfield with a trade or two(very good at filling weaknesses) along with a ruck and build around a F/HF line of Cameron, Stengle, O.Henry.

Miers is having a outstanding season Holmes was a lone standout in the middle with some support from Bowes.

Conway is raw as heck but had 25 H/O and 21 disposals and both his set shots went OOB but tons of potential there.

TLDR Geelong will be more than fine Richmond however are in a massive hole.

Think you're on the money here.

It does beg the question though, is a 'rebuild' only constituted if you're a poor side?

For instance, Geelong over the last 24 months have introduced Holmes, SDK, Bruhn, Henry, Dempsey, & Stengle as non-negotiable best 22.

The next step that's occuring now is Clark, O'Sullivan, Conway, Knevitt, Neale, & Mullin joining them, who are all getting a taste every second week or so, and will all likely be playing every week by next year like the aforementioned names did before them.

It's not as dramatic as just throwing all of them to the wolves at once I guess, which is the typical 'rebuild'. approach.

But if we were a poor side, we could certainly hide behind the veil that we are 'rebuilding'.

Richmond for instance are playing less youth, and certainly consider themselves to be in a rebuild, and are getting a free pass so to speak from the media on performance as a result.

It's probably closer to what your Swans went through in 18/19/20 in terms of getting games into the youngsters, while still having some established champions and quality prime age players to ease the burden for mine.

Whether either of our clubs went through, or are currently going through a rebuild is up to interpretation I'd say.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Be honest Meteoric Rise , are the bolded players (and Greeb) doing enough?

Martin, Prestia and Rioli are the 3 who have stopped this being a 100 point margin at half time.

Miller was on Hipwood.

I backed Hipwood to get 2 goals in multis where every other campaignering leg won.

So to the question as to whether Miller is doing enough I would say he is doing way too much the @rsehole.

 

[Mr Meow]

Miller was on Hipwood.

I backed Hipwood to get 2 goals in multis where every other campaignering leg won.

So to the question as to whether Miller is doing enough I would say he is doing way too much the @rsehole.

No matter who they play, do NOT trust Hipwood to do anything. Your boy Rayner was a much more sensible option.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Only 4 players under 22 in the side tonight. Could end up a lot worse than this in the next 12-24 months.

That makes about as much sense as employing James Brayshaw to commentate on footy.

Gibcus, Rioli Jnr, Campbell all missed through injury, all best 22 and are under 22 and will return well within your 12-24 month time frame.

Oh and if you didn't notice, joining them on the injury list were:

Lynch Taranto Hopper Baker Graham Ross Banks Clarke Trezise and Grimes.

Running around on the park in their places were guys sitting all the way down to 39th choice on our list. And fully half the side had played under 50 AFL games. No team in the FL fielded more players with under 50 games this weekend.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

No matter who they play, do NOT trust Hipwood to do anything. Your boy Rayner was a much more sensible option.

You only bet on things you trust will happen, you won't get too far.