Opinion Can Dustin Martin be the GOAT? (Answer: no)

[Mr Meow]

Can averages show that someone was consistently better over the same period compared to another?

If you have error bars and showed a statistically significant difference. Only mean was used (so only one method to calculate average, that shows nothing about distribution), we could instead use median and even an ANOVA analysis for different categories.

For consistency, the distribution of individual data points for each category could be used (per season, or for the full set of games as separate data points). Wouldn't be possible for AA or B&Fs because the the former is just a voting system at the end of a full season, while the latter we would need every single game's B&F read out. It is accepted that midfielders with very consistent elite performance across a season do well in those categories. If you didn't win an AA selection or a B&F, it's fair to assume there was some variance between your best and worst games. E.g a large period of the season just "good", with a hot streak early or late.

I will once again emphasise that no system is perfect, but it's entertaining to see something more comprehensive mocked by a person (not you) who thought "career goal/disposal averages" was the most accurate and definitive analysis there was. 4 different key statistical metrics, and 4 different voting metrics, then a tallying and ranking system, is undoubtedly a stronger approach to validate 21st century midfielder consistency/longevity. For the thousandth time, I have never claimed it measured "dominance of peak" or "most brilliant footballer I've seen".

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Player ratings now. You can't make this shyte up.

 

[doppleganger]

Can averages show that someone was consistently better over the same period compared to another?

Rory Sloane (14.51) has a higher career avg player rating than Dusty (14.35).

Obviously Rory was consistently better than Dusty over their careers.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I cant believe this thread hasn't been shut down yet.

Dusty has been out of the game for only a couple of years and I have already forgotten he played.
Players like Ablett, Lockett and co retired many years ago and I still remember them vividly.

Perhaps it is just unfortunate that Martin didn't play great football outside of a couple of years.

He sort of reminds me of a band like Whitesnake. Did a couple of great things that were memorable.
Then you have Pendles, who is basically The Rolling Stones. Brilliant for decades (can't think of a poor year).
Of course, no list is complete without GAJ and Mathews, The Beatles, or even Taylor Swift. Hit, after hit, after hit.

To the three Richmond nuffies that are holding onto hope, let it go.
Your club and Dusty, were lucky enough to be at the right place, right time and had a win against Adelaide, GWS and Covid.

Take the win and let it go.
Dusty had some great moments but he isn't even in the conversation with some of the great players of our time.

That's pretty much what I think. Dusty is in a league of his own.

 

[Mr Meow]

That's pretty much what I think. Dusty is in a league of his own.

So do 3% of all people (likely Richmond supporters), as the poll showed.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

So do 3% of all people (likely Richmond supporters), as the poll showed.

I did a pop IQ test once and it said I was in the smartest 1%. Turns out I've spread my wings into the smartest 3%.

 

[Freomaniac]

Makes it even more meritorious for Dusty to average 19.34 player rating across his whole 16 finals but this is seemingly never going to be acknowledged by Collingwood or Geelong supporters here.

To put that rating into context v Pendlebury, the latter has played 18 finals since player ratings begun. If you drop off his weakest 2/3rds, ie 12 lowest player ratings, his 6 top ratings average lower than Dusty's overall average from 16 finals, Pendles 19.06 v Dusty 19.34.

If you were to take Dusty's top 6 finals, well that average is off the scale - 26.3, 30.9, 26.4, 33, 27.2, 32.1. Average 29.3 - that is not even funny it is that high. It is so high it is like people don't realise it can be real. But it is precisely why we are having this discussion, because Dusty's best collection of finals stands head, shoulders, chest and waist above any other player.

Pendlebury more consistent higher ratings week in week out in home & away footy - not disputed. Though you yourself have explained perfectly why this may be the case(forwards are not in the play as much, and Dusty has spent probably 40% of his career parked forward, Pendlebury almost never.)

But in AFL footy, much to your chagrin, every team must be funnelled through the finals to divine the champion. So those are by far the most important games. And there is nobody in history with a greater collection of finals performances than Dustin Martin.

Good point about comparing finals when it compares to mids and forwards.

Martin and cotchin at least could look back and enjoy those finals from 2017 to 2020 (and to a lesser extent finals in 2013 to 2015 as well).

I have always talked about those years of Richmond finishing 9th in1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2006 and 2008.

Turn those 9th placed finishes into 8th placed ones and that's 6 more finals Matty Richardson would of played.

That also means Richmond plays finals in 1994-6, 1998, 2000-01, 2006 and 2008.

 

[FootyLad0]

I cant believe this thread hasn't been shut down yet.

Dusty has been out of the game for only a couple of years and I have already forgotten he played.
Players like Ablett, Lockett and co retired many years ago and I still remember them vividly.

Perhaps it is just unfortunate that Martin didn't play great football outside of a couple of years.

He sort of reminds me of a band like Whitesnake. Did a couple of great things that were memorable.
Then you have Pendles, who is basically The Rolling Stones. Brilliant for decades (can't think of a poor year).
Of course, no list is complete without GAJ and Mathews, The Beatles, or even Taylor Swift. Hit, after hit, after hit.

To the three Richmond nuffies that are holding onto hope, let it go.
Your club and Dusty, were lucky enough to be at the right place, right time and had a win against Adelaide, GWS and Covid.

Take the win and let it go.
Dusty had some great moments but he isn't even in the conversation with some of the great players of our time.

THIS right here, shut it down already.
This should have been closed at least over 2 years ago.

Dusty is an all time great but longevity and consistency matters just as much as peak years

 

[RUNVS]

THIS right here, shut it down already.
This should have been closed at least over 2 years ago.

Dusty is an all time great but longevity and consistency matters just as much as peak years

Yep, and as much as Richmond fans try and claim the AA does not matter, it does matter as it shows consistency at a peak level. Martin only got 4 All Australians which shows he was not at a peak level for anywhere near enough time to be even in contention for the greatest player of all time, not when so many of the players who played in a similar era to him got so many more All Australians, meaning they were at a higher level for much longer.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Yep, and as much as Richmond fans try and claim the AA does not matter, it does matter as it shows consistency at a peak level. Martin only got 4 All Australians which shows he was not at a peak level for anywhere near enough time to be even in contention for the greatest player of all time, not when so many of the players who played in a similar era to him got so many more All Australians, meaning they were at a higher level for much longer.

An award that excludes the most important games(finals) from consideration is never going do justice to such a dominant finals player as Dustin Martin. In any event his 4 x AA, Brownlow with then record votes, Coaches MVP with record votes, other high Brownlow finishes, & overall record including total Brownlow votes establishes very clearly his exploits were not confined to just his 9 dominant finals matches.

Here are his Brownlow votes isolated to Richmond's run at trying to secure a top 4 berth or finals spot from 2015 -

2015: 3132---2-2231-2
2016: 133-33-231-23--
2017: 333-13-333--33
2018: Richmond secured top spot early but he finished 2--2-2---32
2019: 31--13--3333-
2020: 233--1--13

Polled 117 votes in 49 games with 28 x 3 votes from 78 games total as Richmond were making their run to secure their finals position in each of those seasons. He basically finished 5 out of 6 seasons as the form player in the competition, and polled 2 or 3 in 5 of the last 11 games in 2018 to boot. 6 years is a hell of a long time to be finishing each season as the form player in the competition going into finals. It is every season aged 24-29, the years players are known to be at their peak.

So to be clear what is being revealed here, during all of his 6 prime years aged 24-29, when Dusty hit his straps in each season - on average with 13 matches to go before finals, his average performance from then on(including all the 13 finals he played in that period) was 1.55 votes. He was BOG in 38% of those games & 2nd or 3rd best in another 30%. Ie in the votes in 68% of those matches.

There is nobody with a better prime than that.

 

[RUNVS]

An award that excludes the most important games(finals) from consideration is never going do justice to such a dominant finals player as Dustin Martin. In any event his 4 x AA, Brownlow with then record votes, Coaches MVP with record votes, other high Brownlow finishes, & overall record including total Brownlow votes establishes very clearly his exploits were not confined to just his 9 dominant finals matches.

Here are his Brownlow votes isolated to Richmond's run at trying to secure a top 4 berth or finals spot from 2015 -

2015: 3132---2-2231-2
2016: 133-33-231-23--
2017: 333-13-333--33
2018: Richmond secured top spot early but finished 2--2-2---32
2019: 31--13--3333-
2020: 233--1--13

Polled in 49 games with 28 x 3 votes from 73 games as Richmond were making their run to secure their finals position in each of those seasons. He basically finished 5 out of 6 seasons as the form player in the competition, and polled 2 or 3 in 5 of the last 11 games in 2018 to boot. 6 years is a hell of a long time to be finishing each season as the form player in the competition going into finals. It is every season aged 24-29, the years players are known to be at their peak.

Again though, this was over a 5 year time frame. We only saw Martin at what you are describing for 4 or 5 years. It just isn't enough, not when so many players can be at their near best for a lot longer than that.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Again though, this was over a 5 year time frame. We only saw Martin at what you are describing for 4 or 5 years. It just isn't enough, not when so many players can be at their near best for a lot longer than that.

It was 6 seasons, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020. Every year of his prime(basically every player's prime aged 24-29.) 6 seasons is an eternity to consistently be finishing each year(on average last 13 home & away games + finals) as the form player in the AFL. The only player who would be anywhere comparable to that is Ablett - who has a longer period of dominance, but doesn't have the finals record.

 

[RUNVS]

It was 6 seasons, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020. Every year of his prime(basically every player's prime aged 24-29.) 6 seasons is an eternity to consistently be finishing each year(on average last 13 home & away games + finals) as the form player in the AFL. The only player who would be anywhere comparable to that is Ablett - who has a longer period of dominance, but doesn't have the finals record.

Even then, and I think 6 seasons is being very generous, it isn't a lot, not when his career was 15 seasons long.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Even then, and I think 6 seasons is being very generous, it isn't a lot, not when his career was 15 seasons long.

Lol how long do you expect a player to be finishing each season as the form player in the competition consistently?

Someone as good as Pendlebury might have done it once at best. Dusty had a 6 year span of that.

 

[RUNVS]

Martin
4 All Australians in 15 seasons - 27%

Ablett
8 All Australians in 19 seasons - 42%

Franklin
8 All Australians in 19 seasons - 42%

Add to that that both Ablett and Buddy had 4 more seasons than Martin, meaning it is even harder to keep the percentage up and it is even more impressive.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Martin
4 All Australians in 15 seasons - 27%

Ablett
8 All Australians in 19 seasons - 42%

Franklin
8 All Australians in 19 seasons - 42%

Add to that that both Ablett and Buddy had 4 more seasons than Martin, meaning it is even harder to keep the percentage up and it is even more impressive.

But how many more than 6 consecutive seasons(a whole prime period for most players) would you expect a player to finish each year as the form player of the comp before you would recognise the excellence of the achievement? There may not be one other player in the 128 year history of the AFL that has done that.

And just to check - does finals performance mean anything to you? If so, how important is it?

 

[RUNVS]

But how many more than 6 consecutive seasons(a whole prime period for most players) would you expect a player to finish each year as the form player of the comp before you would recognise the excellence of the achievement? There may not be one other player in the 128 year history of the AFL that has done that.

And just to check - does finals performance mean anything to you? If so, how important is it?

Finals performances need to be taken with a grain of salt as majority of players don't get the opportunity to consistently play in them.

Matthew Richardson probably played in very few finals as a player, doesn't mean he was not a great player and he can't be held in less regard because he was in a crap team. Martin played well in finals yes, but it required him to be in a good team to do it and the fact the Grand Finals were so one sided helped a lot as well. Easier to be great when your team is thumping the other.

Martin's best was great, but we did not see that best for anywhere near as long as we should have.

 

[Sirlemsip]

Lol how long do you expect a player to be finishing each season as the form player in the competition consistently?

Someone as good as Pendlebury might have done it once at best. Dusty had a 6 year span of that.

Your own club only voted him as the best player in the team twice (2016, 2017).
2/15 = 13%

Ablett:
6 B&F in 19 seasons = 31.6%

Leigh Matthews:
8 B&F in 17 seasons = 47%

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Finals performances need to be taken with a grain of salt as majority of players don't get the opportunity to consistently play in them.

Matthew Richardson probably played in very few finals as a player, doesn't mean he was not a great player and he can't be held in less regard because he was in a crap team. Martin played well in finals yes, but it required him to be in a good team to do it and the fact the Grand Finals were so one sided helped a lot as well. Easier to be great when your team is thumping the other.

Martin's best was great, but we did not see that best for anywhere near as long as we should have.

Astonishing statement from you the one I have bolded above.

One cannot help but admire you steadfastly sticking to your guns on it though.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Your own club only voted him as the best player in the team twice (2016, 2017).
2/15 = 13%

Ablett:
6 B&F in 19 seasons = 31.6%

Leigh Matthews:
8 B&F in 17 seasons = 47%

Have said many times, same coaches who vote in the B & F essentially voted Martin the best Richmond player in the coaches MVP 8 seasons. The B & F at Richmond is designed to reward players for adhering to their role within the Richmond system. It is also not calibrated to fully reward someone as good as Dusty's best performances, which will receive 5 votes - the same as a lesser player's best performances. The Coaches votes are a much better guide to what we are discussing.

 

[RUNVS]

Astonishing statement from you the one I have bolded above.

One cannot help but admire you steadfastly sticking to your guns on it though.

Only with a grain of salt as most players don't get the opportunity to play in easy Grand Final victories. Easy to look great when your side is pumping the other.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Only with a grain of salt as most players don't get the opportunity to play in easy Grand Final victories. Easy to look great when your side is pumping the other.

Especially when you are the main cause of your team pumping the other.


RUNVS
Congratulations on making such a quotable quote you have made my signature Run my man.

 

[Sirlemsip]

Have said many times, same coaches who vote in the B & F essentially voted Martin the best Richmond player in the coaches MVP 8 seasons. The B & F at Richmond is designed to reward players for adhering to their role within the Richmond system. It is also not calibrated to fully reward someone as good as Dusty's best performances, which will receive 5 votes - the same as a lesser player's best performances. The Coaches votes are a much better guide to what we are discussing.

Wow, he was the best RICHMOND player 8 times...

Now you are saying he wasn't the best at adhering to his role within the team?
I'm pretty sure you have claimed numerous times in this thread that Dusty was 'more of a team player' than GAJ and that was one of the reasons you considered him better.

Dusty actually won the coaches MVP across the whole competition once in 2017.

Not exactly the hallmark of a GOAT player.

 

[RUNVS]

Especially when you are the main cause of your team pumping the other.


RUNVS
Congratulations on making such a quotable quote you have made my signature Run my man.

Except Richmond would have won those games even if Martin did not play.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Wow, he was the best RICHMOND player 8 times...

Now you are saying he wasn't the best at adhering to his role within the team?
I'm pretty sure you have claimed numerous times in this thread that Dusty was 'more of a team player' than GAJ and that was one of the reasons you considered him better.

Dusty actually won the coaches MVP across the whole competition once in 2017.

Not exactly the hallmark of a GOAT player.

You might want to dig up a quote to be making claims like that.

I have explained my position on Dusty's mere 2 B & F's. Discussed it many times on this thread in detail. Richmond's B&F's votes reward the players who play sacrificial roles which Dusty doesn't, obviously, because he is the main man. They also don't fully reward brilliant performances for which Dusty is well known. Other clubs operate differently. But this is the only reason Dusty doesn't have 6-8 Richmond B&F's. Richmond clearly recognised who their best player was when the paid Dusty the highest contract in history.