Opinion Can Dustin Martin be the GOAT? (Answer: no)

[Mr Meow]

and yet Martin only got 1 AA in a team that finished outside the 8, so around 14% of the seasons he finished outside the 8.

He got 3 of his AA's in teams inside the 8, from memory over 35% of the time Richmond finished inside the 8 Martin got an AA.

There seems to be quite a bit of evidence that in bad teams Martin is not as good.

Martin's last 4 years at Richmond are a good example, given he did not exactly retire at an ancient age.

Dusty 1.74 coaches votes per game 2021-2024 when Richmond were no longer dominant. Aged 30-33.

Ablett 3.55 coaches votes per game 2014-2017 when GC were a non finalist team. Aged 30-33.

Roughly twice as good in early 30s when in non dominant sides.

Dusty then retired at the point where Ablett went on and played 3 more decent seasons for Geelong.

 

[Captain_Bender]

You are saying the AA is meaningless because you want it to be meaningless. It is probably the best award out there to see how good a player actually was during the season.

And according to All Australian teams Pendlebury or Yeo were better than Dusty in 2019, to which anyone who watched them all in that year can tell you that they weren't

 

[RUNVS]

Martin's last 4 years at Richmond are a good example, given he did not exactly retire at an ancient age.

Dusty 1.74 coaches votes per game 2021-2024 when Richmond were no longer dominant. Aged 30-33.

Ablett 3.55 coaches votes per game 2014-2017 when GC were a non finalist team. Aged 30-33.

Roughly twice as good in early 30s when in non dominant sides.

Dusty then retired at the point where Ablett went on and played 3 more decent seasons for Geelong.

Yep, and yes Martin was great when Richmond were dominant, there is a lot of evidence to stat he can only reach that level in great teams.

If Richmond were in the bottom 8 in the 2017 to 2020 period Martin's results would have been quite a bit worse and this thread would not even exist. In some ways Martin got lucky he was in such a strong team for that period of time.

 

[Captain_Bender]

Martin's last 4 years at Richmond are a good example, given he did not exactly retire at an ancient age.

Dusty 1.74 coaches votes per game 2021-2024 when Richmond were no longer dominant. Aged 30-33.

Ablett 3.55 coaches votes per game 2014-2017 when GC were a non finalist team. Aged 30-33.

Roughly twice as good in early 30s when in non dominant sides.

Dusty then retired at the point where Ablett went on and played 3 more decent seasons for Geelong.

The only decent season Ablett had between 2018-2020 was 2019, even then he was average in the second half of the season

 

[RUNVS]

And according to All Australian teams Pendlebury or Yeo were better than Dusty in 2019, to which anyone who watched them all in that year can tell you that they weren't

According to this article before the annoucement of the 2019 AA

The midfield race is always a tough one. The likes of Travis Boak, Dayne Zorko, Ben Cunnington, Luke Shuey, Elliot Yeo, Adam Treloar, Jack Macrae, Josh Dunkley, Michael Walters and Dustin Martin can all arguably lay claim to a potential spot.

AFL 2019: The All-Australian state of play, from the locks to the bolters

Locks, bolters and sliders: state of play after ‘fiery’ All-Aus meeting

www.foxsports.com.au

Martin was not in the "lock" section. He was in the contenders section, meaning he was in contention but definitely not guaranteed a spot so the fact he missed out on the AA award that year doesn't seem like a surprise.

 

[RUNVS]

The only decent season Ablett had between 2018-2020 was 2019, even then he was average in the second half of the season

Better than Martin in 2024 though, despite Ablett being quite a bit older.

 

[Captain_Bender]

Better than Martin in 2024 though, despite Ablett being quite a bit older.

Ablett was playing for the minor premiers while Dusty was in a team completely decimated by injuries

 

[FreddyTwoShoes]

And according to All Australian teams Pendlebury or Yeo were better than Dusty in 2019, to which anyone who watched them all through black and yellow glasses in that year can tell you that they weren't

Fixed it for you

 

[RUNVS]

Also found a discussion on reddit after the All Australian team was announced

I'd also say Dusty should've been selected instead of one of Kelly or Yeo but was a very solid team this season.

Treloar’s like Dusty in only being solid the first half of the year then having an amazing finish. Pendles hasn’t had a lull all year.

Exactly, Dusty is clearly the best player in the comp right now and didn't make the squad, because he's not geared for 22 weeks. He's a sprinter not a distance runner, and he's timed for finals season.

I don’t think that’s true at all.. Dusty was phenomenal all of 2017 and most of 2018 for that matter.. It was a genuine drop-off in the first 8 or so weeks this season from my vantage point.

Yeo over Dusty is fair in terms of consistency for the full year, plus maybe suspension.

Agreed with all of that - but I figured based on the panel they’d have to shove Dusty and Ablett in. Glad sense prevailed though.

He was probably contending with Danger for a spot. And unlike Dusty's 'brownlow' year. Danger 'aka the best player in dusty's brownlow year' didn't get suspnded in the second last round and get snubbed a clear BOG in the last round to steal it from Danger by a measly 3 votes. Small recompense for danger getting ROBBED but I'll take it. Come at me. xD

Still doesn't make sense either Danger OR Dusty being named HFF when they were both Mids first... Danger had the better year. But Ablett played as an actual forward.... Should have got Dangers spot to be honest... He had a really influential year as a flanker. Absolute playmaker with his clean skills, tried shit others wouldn't and pulled it off a lot of the time. We looked like shit when he wasn't in as the linkup man, gave us the connection we haven't had in years.

If you think dusty was best 22, you're dreaming.

Agree, the final 5 weeks does not a season make

Regarding Houli

Still think he was robbed of that norm smith. Was def best on ground but people wanted Dusty to have every award

Still think he should be the Norm Smith Medalist but alas.

It was destined for Dusty. The AFL couldn't resist a Brownlow, AA, Premiership and Norm Smith in one season.

Yeo had a way better season overall. Martin dominated the last third but what about the rest?

 

[Captain_Bender]

Also found a discussion on reddit after the All Australian team was announced




















Regarding Houli

Anything can support your view if you selectively choose what post to show

 

[Cdog71]

Yep, and yes Martin was great when Richmond were dominant, there is a lot of evidence to stat he can only reach that level in great teams.

If Richmond were in the bottom 8 in the 2017 to 2020 period Martin's results would have been quite a bit worse and this thread would not even exist. In some ways Martin got lucky he was in such a strong team for that period of time.

There’s a few dumb posts in this thread and that’s right up there.

 

[RUNVS]

Anything can support your view if you selectively choose what post to show

Feel free to look for more comments on the thread then. I posted most of them.

 

[Mr Meow]

The only decent season Ablett had between 2018-2020 was 2019, even then he was average in the second half of the season

If Martin played for 3 more years (as Ablett did), going at 9 coaches votes per season (like 2024) his average would have severely declined.

Ablett in his last 3 seasons: 59 goals and 40 goal assists (99 total or 33 per season). 1.89 coaches votes per game.

Martin in his last season (remember this was still the same age as Ablett's last year at GC): just 10 goals and 8 goal assists (18 total). 0.69 coaches votes per game.

And this is when Ablett was older than Martin's retirement age. 2-3x the output.

 

[Cdog71]

Also found a discussion on reddit after the All Australian team was announced




















Regarding Houli

A lot of people thought Pendlebury won the GF for Collingwood.

 

[Captain_Bender]

Feel free to look for more comments on the thread then. I posted most of them.

Probably all of them out of over 1000 other post

 

[RUNVS]

There’s a few dumb posts in this thread and that’s right up there.

Just in 2017 he averaged 25% fewer disposals in games Richmond lost.

He also only got 1 AA in seasons Richmond finished outside the 8, despite being at Richmond for 7 seasons when Richmond were out of the 8, and he won 3 AA awards when Richmond finished inside the 8, and Richmond finished 8 seasons inside the 8 when Martin was there.

So Martin gets 25% fewer disposals when Richmond loses and he is 250% less likely to get an AA if Richmond finish outside of the 8 too.

 

[RUNVS]

Probably all of them out of over 1000 other post

For some odd reason I only included comments that included the words "Dusty" or "Martin"

 

[Captain_Bender]

If Martin played for 3 more years (as Ablett did), going at 9 coaches votes per season (like 2024) his average would have severely declined.

Ablett in his last 3 seasons: 59 goals and 40 goal assists (99 total or 33 per season). 1.89 coaches votes per game.

Martin in his last season: just 10 goals and 8 goal assists (18 total). 0.69 coaches votes per game.

And this is when Ablett was older than Martin's retirement age. 2-3x the output.

And Ablett played for a finals side those three years that made a prelim and a grand final, not a depleted side like Dusty did, Dusty's 2023 is better than any of Ablett's years between 2015-2020

 

[RUNVS]

And Ablett played for a finals side those three years that made a prelim and a grand final, not a depleted side like Dusty did, Dusty's 2023 is better than any of Ablett's years between 2015-2020

Ablett played half his career in really shitty sides.

 

[Mr Meow]

There’s a few dumb posts in this thread and that’s right up there.

There's no getting around the fact that Martin's 2021-2024 period was a big drop off, one you'd expect for a player pushing out to 34-37 years like Pendles. Not 30-33. Those years match Ablett's 2014-2017 where he was still excellent when on the field.

 

[Mr Meow]

Better than Martin in 2024 though, despite Ablett being quite a bit older.

If you look at coaches votes tallies for the years in their 30s:

-Ablett has the 4 highest ranked seasons (2014, 2017, 2018, 2019). Only one of these sides won a final.

-Martin has the 5th and 6th highest ranked seasons (2023, 2021).

So even old man Ablett (34-35) was besting Dusty aged 30-32.

 

[RUNVS]

Here are the last 3 seasons for Martin, and Ablett at the same age

 

[Captain_Bender]

Here are the last 3 seasons for Martin, and Ablett at the same age

View attachment 2206645
View attachment 2206650

View attachment 2206648

View attachment 2206647

Which shows that in the year Dusty was uninjured and played in a non depleted team he was better

 

[Cdog71]

There's no getting around the fact that Martin's 2021-2024 period was a big drop off, one you'd expect for a player pushing out to 34-37 years like Pendles. Not 30-33. Those years match Ablett's 2014-2017 where he was still excellent when on the field.

Sure.
I’m not going to bother getting into what might have influenced that period or even how many games he missed through personal circumstances and serious injury.
Let’s see how Petracca goes coming back.
Im not particularly interested in arguing who was a better player.

To infer he’s a flat track bully is just a dumb thing to say.

 

[RUNVS]

Which shows that in the year Dusty was uninjured and played in a non depleted team he was better

Really, that is your take?