Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

Hey all,

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[rank and file]

The accusation that Ukraine sells arms to mexican drug cartels demolished in one simple video:
View attachment 1972303

Nobody fell for that one.
Like nobody fell for this one.

Russia Accuses The US Of Recruiting Members From Mexican Cartels To Fight In Ukraine

"Sol Prendido" for Borderland Beat Video translation is as follows: Russia's foreign intelligence service assured that United States militar...

www.borderlandbeat.com

 

[barreness]

Well, yeah recruitment semantics are pretty massively different, when for Ukraine it is an existential threat, and for Russia it is they who are the unprovoked aggressor.

yeh quote the post in full next time, I address this

 

[Mobbs]

yeh quote the post in full next time, I address this

I mean I was replying to a tweet about Russia offering cash bonuses for signing up, and the day before Ukraine removed consular assistance for fighting aged males outside the country

It's funny that it's luring when it's Russia and defending freedom when it's Ukraine. You've seen the footage of Ukrainians being pulled off the street and 'drafted' yeh

But yeh obviously Russia is using death row prisoners, private mercs, and all the rural kids they can find

Well, yeah recruitment semantics are pretty massively different, when for Ukraine it is an existential threat, and for Russia it is they who are the unprovoked aggressor.

This help?

 

[Mobbs]

Bunch of various stuff :

Before/After image of the oil refinery in Smolensk region which was struck a couple days back.

View attachment video_2024-04-28_09-27-15.mp4

Earlier I remarked that I thought Smolensk was in the news twice now for oil infrastructure being hit. After a bit of research I found it was two different facilities, neither IN Smolensk, but both in Smolensk oblast. The first was at Vyazna well to the east of Smolensk (it's near a Borodino but not the same Borodino as the one made (in)famous from historical battles in the past. The recent one is near a town (Razdorovo) a bit south of Smolensk.

It seems the more recent attack on the facility south of Krasnodar was overall a fail, as the fire was small and put out fairly quickly.

In the meantime, RF have been targetting more power plants with some success, further interrupting power supply to the civilian population. There was a strong attack recently which caused considerable damage to TPPs, I think kind of near Dnipro (can't remember location).

RF are also targetting major rail junctions across the country, which it doesn't take a mastermind to work out is intended to disrupt the delivery of military assistance. I believe there has been a combo of some successful hits, and some fails. RF is also continuing to pummel civilian areas in Kharkiv, essentially another Grozny approach. I do believe an attempt to expand invasion reach towards Kharkiv is indeed on the cards.

Ocherytne ( barreness brought attention to this with a news article quote earlier ) is under RF control, as is two villages south as part of the same push. There is another vector a little north of their, where RF are also making some progress (though much slower). The Ocherytne vector was successful in short time, probably the first time we've seen RF actually progress at a pace they desire, for quite a while. Losses expended in the territorial gain, as not really reported, are probably not at the meatwave level of other vectors. Reports claim that a failure on the part of Ukrainian defence (they name the brigade but I can't be stuffed looking it up again) essentially caused a dropping of the ball and let this happen. That's a Ukrainian perspective - originally the vector was very narrow and could have been eradicated but their trap was poorly executed and therefore RF are now solidified there.

A village up near the Kupyansk direction also fell under RF control after another push. It's small and the end goal is less clear, but it is a movement.

From the Ukrainian positives on the front, they gained some more territory south of Bakhmut, but in reality this area has been waxing and waning for a while, I don't know if it's solid. Over on the left bank of the Dnipr near Krynki, a 400-strong infantry push by the RF walked away with 100 left alive - according to RF milbloggers (so not set in stone).

The old ship Kommuna was subject to an attack by Ukrainian forces, and now subject to greatly at-odds reports of how much damage happened - some say its negligible, some say it's severe (sometimes the sources are reverse of what you'd expect if these were propaganda). More attacks have occurred in Crimea, results uncertain.

 

[Mobbs]

Really interesting concept here where they're flying after Orlan drones and trying to shoot them down from the air. Was successful over Odessa. [Skadovsk TG]

Training Yak-52 with a machine gun, which shot down an Orlan-10 in Odesa today.
Extreme video - from the pilot

View attachment yak52.mp4

 

[jatz14]

This is narrow, no one tried appeasement in WW1 and it led to that shitshow for no reason. Many countries tried it in the lead up to WW2 for that very reason, and it still ended up in war. WW2 isn't a good argument to give up on diplomacy and negotiations for evermore

So let's just do WW3 because it's inevitable? I mean I guess you'll be right in the end but I've got a few good years left

No, they tried large military blocks, that would make war too dangerous to contemplate.

You know, like why we don't need to worry about further Russian expansion, because the big armed block would make it too dangerous for Putin to contemplate.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Mobbs]

Apparently a new aid package has been determined for Ukraine out of Australia, including manpads and drones. Can't get at the links while I'm out, Denys Davydov quoted an ABC article on the topic.

On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[RonSon]

Apparently a new aid package has been determined for Ukraine out of Australia, including manpads and drones. Can't get at the links while I'm out, Denys Davydov quoted an ABC article on the topic.

On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

Marles visits Kyiv to unveil $100m in support for Ukraine’s war against Russia

Defence Minister Richard Marles visits Ukraine, revealing Australia will provide the besieged country with another support package to aid its defence against Russia.

www.abc.net.au

Defence Minister Richard Marles has unveiled another $100 million in Australian funding and supplies for Ukraine, as Kyiv pleads for greater international support in its resistance against Russian forces.

In the package, $50 million will fund short-range air defence systems, while $30 million is being spent on drones for the Ukrainian military and another $15 million on equipment including helmets, inflatable boats, boots, fire masks and electricity generators.

 

[Mobbs]

Chasiv Yar is still under siege but the success rate of RF attacks hasn't been strong in this region.

View attachment video_2024-04-28_10-06-16.mp4

From the post ([Skadovsk TG]):
Burning Katsap equipment - the consequences of another orc assault in the direction of the city of Chasiv Yar.

Today's orc attack is repulsed, three units of armored vehicles and two assault groups of hogdogs are destroyed.

Video from soldiers of the 225th Separate Assault Battalion

 

[wannabejack]

From a Kyiv Post article.

Certainly, the best of all Ukrainians are not slumbering, lulled into a false sense of security by apparent American goodwill and tangible support. They’ve learned a hard lesson not only over the last six months, when American aid was not forthcoming, but also from the past, when American F-16’s had been promised and not delivered for a year. Ukraine must rely upon itself essentially, producing its own ammunition, including drones. While the future is not bright, it is at least hopeful.

 

[wannabejack]

From another Kyiv Post article.

So the EU bureaucracy seems to be blocking the use of the $330 billion in immobilised Russian central bank assets in Western jurisdictions. They seem to have come up with a smoke and mirrors approach, which involves only the use the profits on the interest earned on these assets.

I think this is just a PR stunt to deflect from the fact that the underlying assets are being ring-fenced - Europe seems to prefer to spend Western tax payers/creditors/pensioners money funding the annual $100bn cost of the war in Ukraine, rather than do what is morally and politically/strategically right in allocating the underlying assets - and making the Russian tax payer pay.

 

[Visions]

Residents of the Krasnodar region report the sounds of explosions. According to preliminary data, at about four in the morning, 9 drones were shot down over Slavyansk-on-Kuban.

After the drone attack, a fire started in the area of the bitumen plant. There is no official information yet.

UPD . The head of the Krasnodar region, Veniamin Kondratyev, said that more than 10 drones were suppressed in the region in the Slavyansky, Seversky and Kushchevsky districts. Drones tried to attack oil refineries and infrastructure. There were no casualties or serious damage. Operational services are extinguishing fires caused by a UAV crash.

[BAZA TG]

No serious damage they say? What was it then, a huge fireworks display?

One should know by now anything a Russian says is an outright lie.

 

[Visions]

This is 5 times the casualties that the Soviet Union suffered in 10 years in Afghanistan which brought the regime to its knees.

Any sane country would have called their illegal war quits by now, however when you have a genocidal dictator at the helm and a country full of sycophants all being appeased, mayhem will continue.

 

[barreness]

No, they tried large military blocks, that would make war too dangerous to contemplate.

In WW1? yeh and the series of into locking treaties meant that everyone pulled the trigger. Not sure your point

You know, like why we don't need to worry about further Russian expansion, because the big armed block would make it too dangerous for Putin to contemplate.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

Russia hasn't pushed a NATO country. I don't understand where you're going here

 

[barreness]

This is 5 times the casualties that the Soviet Union suffered in 10 years in Afghanistan which brought the regime to its knees.

Any sane country would have called their illegal war quits by now, however when you have a genocidal dictator at the helm and a country full of sycophants all being appeased, mayhem will continue.

Silly numbers you'd think. Ukraine confirmed deaths around 30,000, talking 15:1, suspect

Both sides are understating id say. British propaganda isn't the best source.

Ukraine listing lower casualties than fatalities which can't be true, Russia listing absolute rubbish. Soviet Union was significantly stronger/larger than the Russian federation so maybe question the numbers

 

[Visions]

Silly numbers you'd think. Ukraine confirmed deaths around 30,000, talking 15:1, suspect

Both sides are understating id say. British propaganda isn't the best source.

UK are talking 450,000 killed and wounded, not just dead. So not a 15:1 ratio.

 

[Baldur]

Long story short, its enough keep Ukraine in the fight but not enough to win. Which in my opinion appears to be the aim of the US and Germany.

 

[Zidane98]

Silly numbers you'd think. Ukraine confirmed deaths around 30,000, talking 15:1, suspect

Both sides are understating id say. British propaganda isn't the best source.

Ukraine listing lower casualties than fatalities which can't be true, Russia listing absolute rubbish. Soviet Union was significantly stronger/larger than the Russian federation so maybe question the numbers

It really is insane that despite all the losses and his reducing Russia to an international pariah state Putin persists with his fascist invasion.


It just goes to show Putin's rule in Russia is probably the most powerful dictatorship we will ever likely see. Under normal circumstances anyone sane would have left Ukraine a long time ago and come to the negotiating table.

 

[jatz14]

In WW1? yeh and the series of into locking treaties meant that everyone pulled the trigger. Not sure your point

Russia hasn't pushed a NATO country. I don't understand where you're going here

The point is, there is an argument, if you hadn't noticed, between those that think, if Ukraine chooses to defend itself, it is incumbent on the West to give them the means. And those that don't.

The arguments against helping is, it prolongs the war, it prolongs the suffering, Putin is a puppy dog, fluffy and cute, this war was forced on him by the evil West, they are pursuing legitimate national self defence interests. Ukraine is it, he will never attack another country again, all those places his advisors have publicly stated they want to attack, totally safe - NATO. So. Stop aid, Ukraine surrenders, hurrah, peace in our time.

The counter arguments, Putin is a strong man empire builder, who's ambition will never end, if he isn't stopped through violence now, he will need to be stopped through violence later. If the Ukrainians want to fight to defend themselves, we need to help them, cynical as it is, it's better to stop Putins armies now, in Ukraine, than later in Poland or Latvia or Finland.

The idea that a large military alliance will prevent war, and completely safeguard those inside it, is a myth, because that's what was supposed to prevent WW1, and that didn't work well.

The idea a positive outcome for Russia in Ukraine ends things is a non sense.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[jatz14]

Long story short, its enough keep Ukraine in the fight but not enough to win. Which in my opinion appears to be the aim of the US and Germany.

It has always been my view, and I have seen nothing to change it, that Ukraines route to peace and a positive outcome, is staying in the game.

Ukraine wins, if it doesn't lose. It's that simple.

Because, if Russia comes to a realisation, it cannot force Ukraine out of the fight, or defeat them, in the fight, then the war becomes for Russia, a forever war.

Russia, keeping an army in Ukraine, while under sanctions, against an army on home soil, supplied by the West, becomes increasingly more difficult.

The Russian equipment in Ukraine is increasingly old Soviet era equipment. The talk of Russia's economy coping, and it's military industrial complex being up to it is shown false by the lack of new modern gear.

They are dipping into Soviet stocks, and those stocks are large, but finite.

I think Russian commanders are starting to stare at a future where they go to the cupboard for more stuff, and it's empty.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Hornberger]

It has always been my view, and I have seen nothing to change it, that Ukraines route to peace and a positive outcome, is staying in the game.

It is important keep in mind how long the game can last. Major US involvement in Vietnam lasted about 6 years. For the USSR in Afghanistan it was about 8 years. The Iran-Iraq war lasted almost 8 years.

 

[wannabejack]

Danish Air Force Decommissioned Its Entire F-16 Fighting Falcon Fleet To 'Checkmate' Russia & China

After being decommissioned from its Air Force, the upcoming supply of F-16 Fighting Falcons to Argentina and Ukraine has accomplished a remarkable feat: it has simultaneously challenged two US foes – China and Russia. China ‘Pulling Ahead’ In Air-To-Air Missiles; US DoD Says PLAAF Rapidly...

www.eurasiantimes.com

In a bid to arm its aging air force, Argentina signed a $300 million contract with Denmark earlier this month to purchase 24 F-16 aircraft.

Russia and China. One has already lost against the F-16s, and the other will be bracing to face off against these combat-hardened fighter jets in the skies over Ukraine.

The F-16s managed to shoot down the JF-17 combat aircraft jointly produced by China and Pakistan without firing any missiles.
From the outset, the China-Pakistan consortium producing the JF-17 fighter jets hoped to win a contract from Argentina.
The Argentine announcement about the F-16 purchase from Denmark closed the lid on a possible purchase of the JF-17 multi-role fighter.

The Argentine purchase of the F-16 has been far more painful for the JF-17 consortium, which has been looking for export customers without any luck recently. The aircraft lost to the South Korean FA-50 for the Malaysian deal before losing to the Fighting Falcon in Argentina.

 

[barreness]

The point is, there is an argument, if you hadn't noticed, between those that think, if Ukraine chooses to defend itself, it is incumbent on the West to give them the means. And those that don't.

Ukraine should definitely defend themselves, and that includes getting a peace deal to save the farm

The arguments against helping is, it prolongs the war, it prolongs the suffering, Putin is a puppy dog, fluffy and cute, this war was forced on him by the evil West, they are pursuing legitimate national self defence interests. Ukraine is it, he will never attack another country again, all those places his advisors have publicly stated they want to attack, totally safe - NATO. So. Stop aid, Ukraine surrenders, hurrah, peace in our time.

Putin is an imperialist no doubt. Does he have the capability to do much more? not sure, not close to transitria but that's his best option

CIA were definitely sniffing around the maiden revolution, probably didn't cause it though. It was a pretty clear cause of the land grabs and eventually invasion by Russia(not a moral justification, just a pragmatic one)

The counter arguments, Putin is a strong man empire builder, who's ambition will never end, if he isn't stopped through violence now, he will need to be stopped through violence later. If the Ukrainians want to fight to defend themselves, we need to help them, cynical as it is, it's better to stop Putins armies now, in Ukraine, than later in Poland or Latvia or Finland.

They're all NATO countries which engages the nuclear argument, hasn't proven himself a fool so far.

Ukraine is losing ground by the day, I don't think the new aid deal will help much, could very well be wrong

Same as the argument that Putin will keep doing the invasions, could be wrong but I don't see it

The idea that a large military alliance will prevent war, and completely safeguard those inside it, is a myth, because that's what was supposed to prevent WW1, and that didn't work well.

The idea a positive outcome for Russia in Ukraine ends things is a non sense.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

The counter argument being NATO vs Warsaw pact which did prevent a world destroying war(just). Think WW1 wasn't a large military pact, more lots of interconnecting small ones

I think Russia has most of what they want, would probably like to take Zaporizhzhia and a little more of the east. why I'm on peace negotiations

 

[barreness]

It really is insane that despite all the losses and his reducing Russia to an international pariah state Putin persists with his fascist invasion.


It just goes to show Putin's rule in Russia is probably the most powerful dictatorship we will ever likely see. Under normal circumstances anyone sane would have left Ukraine a long time ago and come to the negotiating table.

Keep taking the L's buddy

 

[Mobbs]

Movement of the frontline over the 4 months of 2024.


Russia's recent territory gains are not particularly sizeable on a kilometre level. The reason why it's worrying, is not the quantity of ground captured, so much as the opportunities the RF gains from the new bridgehead to actually make gains from this point. It certainly is the largest territorial gain for the RF since I guess approx Lisichansk region yonks ago, it's just still not that big. What's gonna be interesting is what happens from now.

Notes for newcomers: Ocherytne is the spike near Avdiivka. Chasiv Yar is the movement near Bakhmut. You can see the mostly stalemate Robotyne down the bottom left. To focus in on the hottest regions, I've cut out other areas further away (Kislivka village fell to RF off map to the north, an island off-map to the west fell to Ukraine).