Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

Hey all,

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[barreness]

The arms for Ukraine are in Europe, ready to go.
Until the bill passed, they couldn't give it to Ukraine, that doesn't mean it had to stay in the US though, they pre shipped it.
Once Biden signs it, in days, at most, the arms will begin crossing into Ukraine in hours, not months like you seem to think.

Theoretically, the US military could have bought a bunch of warehouses in Western Ukraine, filled them up with supplies, and the moment Biden signs the bill, hand the keys to Ukraine, and say, here you go, its now yours.

This is fever dream stuff, any source?

And the extra military supplies from Europe are starting to ramp up.

The US has already said it gave ATACMS under a Biden provision last month.

A prominent pro Russian, and relatively well informed mil blogger is warning that contrary to what Russia thinks, and what the hysterical in the West are saying, Ukraine is stronger now than it was in 2023, and there will be no breakthrough by Russia. However, they had been forced into rationing things like shells and missiles due to the constraints on supply.

ATACMS wont change much on the frontlines I wouldn't have thought.

Which blogger? not exactly a good source when recently fired Ukrainian generals are warning the end is nigh

Russia was banking on war fatigue, and declining support from the US and the West putting the Ukrainians in a position where they could see no way out but negotiating a surrender.

War fatigue is a major factor, the previous article was about a unit that routed and has suffered a few defeats

Given some of the hysterical and unhinged comments from Medvedev and others, they are now very very very unhappy.

Agree here, Medvedev is unhinged

Their bright shinny path to glorious victory just got slammed shut in their faces, and they face years of the Russian military being ground down, while the war they started prompts military build ups across the West.

Putins inability to ever come up with a strategy other than doubling down has screwed them big time. He should have taken the L and walked away the moment it was obvious that they couldn't take Kyev, and the West was going to provide support.

You'd think they have most of what they want, land bridge to Crimea and the russian speaking provinces. If they maintain the conflict then NATO won't let them in.

The peace negotiations in april(?) 2022 aren't looking too bad now, saved a few hundred thousands lives

 

[Cap]

ok, why?

Because suing for peace does nothing but provide Russia with time to re-group.

it also gives a Dicator a win, you are essentially forcing Ukraine to lose, not only now, but in a couple of years when Russia just have another go.

Nah it's been the west's dream with not a lot of backing, how do they take back the lost territory? Unless NATO commit troops(which they won't) then how do you turn the tide? Ukraine is on the brink here and their lines could collapse

No doubt some people got over excited about how quickly Ukraine could counter attack, i dont think anyone believed Russias absolute lack of care for human life.

The good news obviously being the more Russians Russia get killed, the less there is for future attacks.

Have they? Still scrambling for shells

They are, they were to slow. But that's slowly changing.

Yeh because that turned out great in Libya and Iraq

the power vaccum is Russia once Putin is defeated will need the EU to get involved.

That's not Ukraines problem though.

 

[Cap]

This is fever dream stuff, any source?

CNN: Some US military aid for Ukraine already in Poland, Germany

Some of the U.S. military aid for Ukraine is already in Germany and Poland, cutting down the time needed for the weapons and equipment to reach the front line, CNN reported on April 22, citing a source familiar with the provision of aid.

kyivindependent.com

Can't wait to see its impact.

 

[Cap]

ATACMS wont change much on the frontlines I wouldn't have thought.

Which blogger? not exactly a good source when recently fired Ukrainian generals are warning the end is nigh

what do you think they are going to do?

 

[barreness]

CNN: Some US military aid for Ukraine already in Poland, Germany

Some of the U.S. military aid for Ukraine is already in Germany and Poland, cutting down the time needed for the weapons and equipment to reach the front line, CNN reported on April 22, citing a source familiar with the provision of aid.

kyivindependent.com

Can't wait to see its impact.

Like it is source, i'll pay that.......but
"citing a source familiar with the provision of aid." ok, sure

 

[barreness]

what do you think they are going to do?

ATACMS? They're short range ballistic missiles, more command centres, perhaps production facilities. Not trench lines

 

[barreness]

Because suing for peace does nothing but provide Russia with time to re-group.

Ukraine need time to regroup, where do you think momentum is

it also gives a Dicator a win, you are essentially forcing Ukraine to lose, not only now, but in a couple of years when Russia just have another go.

Who cares tbh, Democracy is a front

No doubt some people got over excited about how quickly Ukraine could counter attack, i dont think anyone believed Russias absolute lack of care for human life.

Yeh the the counter attack was huge failure, do they have another one in them? I don't think so

The good news obviously being the more Russians Russia get killed, the less there is for future attacks.

Bit dehumanising, but you do you babe. Rather a peace deal myself

They are, they were to slow. But that's slowly changing.

the power vaccum is Russia once Putin is defeated will need the EU to get involved.

That's not Ukraines problem though.

Still waiting

 

[Andre]

ATACMS? They're short range ballistic missiles, more command centres, perhaps production facilities. Not trench lines

Radars, airfields, bases in Crimea etc. To win a war you need to hit tactical, operational and strategic targets.

Artillery will help with tactical level targets (the trenches), ATACMS is for hitting more operational targets. If Russia has to withdraw aircraft, command and supply depots further back from the frontlines you do see how that makes it harder for Russia?

Destroying radars, airfields and command centres is also going to make the effect of F-16's when they arrive much greater.

Ukraine is doing a good job hitting strategic targets (oil facilities) using their own drones and missiles. They are accelerating the economic collapse of the Russian economy. It's not going to cause a change in the short term, but less oil revenue causes Russia to burn through it's reserves of money quicker. That's not an infinite reserve. It also forces Russia to move air defense from Ukraine to back into Russia, which again helps Ukraine.

The aid coming to Ukraine isn't going to lead to a sudden break through, but it keeps them in the fight as Russia keeps moving towards running out of ex-Soviet equipment and currency reserves. When those two are gone, it's then going to be a steep drop in what Russia can do. We (the West) need to keep supplying equipment until that point is reached.

 

[Visions]

Well if your are winning so easy why get on your knees and beg for help.

You mean like Russia is winning so easy it begged Nth Korea for millions of artillery shells and Iran for drones and missiles and China for electronics for its war machine?

 

[barreness]

Radars, airfields, bases in Crimea etc. To win a war you need to hit tactical, operational and strategic targets.

Artillery will help with tactical level targets (the trenches), ATACMS is for hitting more operational targets. If Russia has to withdraw aircraft, command and supply depots further back from the frontlines you do see how that makes it harder for Russia?

Destroying radars, airfields and command centres is also going to make the effect of F-16's when they arrive much greater.

Ukraine is doing a good job hitting strategic targets (oil facilities) using their own drones and missiles. They are accelerating the economic collapse of the Russian economy. It's not going to cause a change in the short term, but less oil revenue causes Russia to burn through it's reserves of money quicker. That's not an infinite reserve. It also forces Russia to move air defense from Ukraine to back into Russia, which again helps Ukraine.

The aid coming to Ukraine isn't going to lead to a sudden break through, but it keeps them in the fight as Russia keeps moving towards running out of ex-Soviet equipment and currency reserves. When those two are gone, it's then going to be a steep drop in what Russia can do. We (the West) need to keep supplying equipment until that point is reached.

Good points, it'll be interesting to see if the f16's do some damage, test out the s300's

The point I'm trying to make is that Ukraine has far more finite resources, they make a few hobby drones and not much else. They'll keep fighting with the aid but the longer this goes the more ground/people they lose

 

[Visions]

Russia must be desperate for troops if its offering staggering amounts of money to entice them.

Obviously with the way Russia conducts business, it will hope not to pay them.

 

[barreness]

Russia must be desperate for troops if its offering staggering amounts of money to entice them.

Obviously with the way Russia conducts business, it will hope not to pay them.

Russia doing the carrot, Ukraine on the stick it would appear

 

[Cap]

Bit dehumanising, but you do you babe. Rather a peace deal myself

Ugh, the only people dehumanising anyone is Russians.

You know the war crimes and genocide you are noticeable silent on.

 

[wannabejack]

You mean like Russia is winning so easy it begged Nth Korea for millions of artillery shells and Iran for drones and missiles and China for electronics for its war machine?

Very embarrassing for a country that brag about their military power.

 

[Zidane98]

Could swear the bloke signing this treaty on behalf of Russia recognising Ukraine's modern day borders is familiar.

Couldn't possibly be the same person now claiming Ukraine isn't really a country could it?

 

[Aussie in exile]

Could swear the bloke signing this treaty on behalf of Russia recognising Ukraine's modern day borders is familiar.

Couldn't possibly be the same person now claiming Ukraine isn't really a country could it?

The same person who said that Russia had no plans to invade Ukraine.
People are deluded if they think that if Putin is successful in Ukraine he will stop there.

 

[Saint]

Europe were not spending as much on defence as they had become complacent and rather than fearing Russia were doing deals with them for cheap gas.

That world is over, and spending on defence is going back up in Europe and cheap gas and oil from Russia is no longer on the economic menu.

Russia is back to being the enemy of Europe. They're pivoting to their East for labour and export markets.

I hope the new weapons are used in a co-ordinated way. ATACMS to take out anti-aircraft batteries then a stack of sorties attacking supply lines, Kerch, HQ, fuel depots, gas pipelines. One big decent strike to hit military and economic interests across the region.

 

[1990crow]

The same person who said that Russia had no plans to invade Ukraine.
People are deluded if they think that if Putin is successful in Ukraine he will stop there.

I'm not sure. Attacking NATO basically means WW3. Would Putin be that stupid?

 

[jatz14]

ok, why?

Nah it's been the west's dream with not a lot of backing, how do they take back the lost territory? Unless NATO commit troops(which they won't) then how do you turn the tide? Ukraine is on the brink here and their lines could collapse

Have they? Still scrambling for shells

Yeh because that turned out great in Libya and Iraq

You realise that Russia thought this was would take a couple of weeks, right?

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[jatz14]

ok, why?

Nah it's been the west's dream with not a lot of backing, how do they take back the lost territory? Unless NATO commit troops(which they won't) then how do you turn the tide? Ukraine is on the brink here and their lines could collapse

Have they? Still scrambling for shells

Yeh because that turned out great in Libya and Iraq

Even the Pro Russian mil bloggers are warning people that hopes of a Ukrainian collapse at the front are delusional, and that the war looks to last year's.

So your out pro Russianing the pro Russian Quazi propaganda Russian mil bloggers.

Congrats I guess.

Was this a goal?

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[jatz14]

I'm not sure. Attacking NATO basically means WW3. Would Putin be that stupid?

I think he thought he would break Western cohesion and will.

That NATO, with Trump at the helm, would stop NATO being a bloc.

Then he can nibble at the edges, confidant the: It's not our fight, we shouldn't be involved; giving them aid is prolonging the war. And my favourite; the Russians have legitimate security interests. Will prevent effective support.

I think events in Ukraine have crushed that hope, provided, the support keeps up.

If the will to help falls apart, then this tells Putin he was right. And if the collective will to help Ukraine falls apart, there probably isn't going to be any will for helping the Baltics, Poland etc.

There is a rough rule of thumb.

The closer a country is to Russia, and the more they have had dealings with Russia, the more aid, as a percentage of GDP that they give.



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[jatz14]

Russia doing the carrot, Ukraine on the stick it would appear

Russia doing the carrot, the stick, kidnapping, and luring foreign nationals to Russia to press gang them into it.

Because they are winning?

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[wannabejack]

I'm not sure. Attacking NATO basically means WW3. Would Putin be that stupid?

Yes, he is that stupid.
Russia’s (Putin's) war aims are expansive. Russia has done this all through its history. Russia has a war-focused economy, where arms factories are working in three shifts round the clock.
It all depends on the support the west give to Ukraine.

 

[Visions]

Could swear the bloke signing this treaty on behalf of Russia recognising Ukraine's modern day borders is familiar.

Couldn't possibly be the same person now claiming Ukraine isn't really a country could it?

Don't be ridiculous! He didn't technically lie because that is one of his numerous body doubles he has......

 

[CD Xbow]

Article discussing the use of tablets in old soviet era Ukrainian aircraft. The tablet appears to cover the normal displays suggesting they are pulling data from the aircraft, not only using the tablets GPS and as a means to integrate with western weapons.

Ukrainian Fighter Jets “Using iPads” To Control Western Weapons

The Pentagon's top weapons buyer talked about Ukraine’s success in using tablets to integrate Western weapons on its Soviet jets.

www.twz.com