'Tis here courtesy of the man himself. Sounding just lovely.
Travis Varcoe (Central District)
179/71 bottom-age right foot (has other foot if necessary) dashing wingman/hff.
*STYLE LIKE: D Wells
*MY RANKING (not meant to reflect appropriate draft pick to use): 12
*PROBABILITY OF AFL CAREER: Likely. Ready Year 2.
- Within an AFL team list, could prove capable of SUSTAINING a ranking of 5-10.
*HURT FACTORS (Offensive/Defensive/Negative): M / M / M
*TRADEMARK:
- Flash by traffic to cleanly scoop at top speed without breaking stride, then scoot over the turf for 30m and kick a floater.
*SUMMARY ASSESSMENT, RECOMMENDATION:
(This assessment makes the assumption that the significant foot injury that ended his '05 early in the season has now been given the medical "all clear" and that he is likely to be as good as ever in time).
- Electrifying skinny dasher with exciting upside. Needs to improve his kicking consistency big-time however.
- Over the past couple of months, I've had Varcoe as early as about 6 and as late as about 25 in my rankings, a reflection of the NQR flavour of this draft and of Varcoe's current less than convincing mix of the freakish and the "special" (elite quality upside) with the "not up to scratch". In the end, upside won out but he has to reduce his incidence of errors in various areas.
- I have compared his style to Daniel Wells. Some might compare it to Aaron Davey but Varcoe is much more pro-active and gets his own ball much more than Davey and potentially has a more rounded game, albeit it with a current sub-optimum split of hits to misses during a match. Note that I am rating Varcoe's "style" as being similar to Wells but the track record that Wells took to his draft was much more impressive than Varcoe's, even allowing for Varcoe having missed most of this season through injury. Here is an excerpt from my '02 draft profile of Wells:-
"Very young, very silky instinctive midfielder / flanker with blistering pace and acceleration, fierce tackling and 2nd/3rd/4th efforts (when it suits) and excellent all-round skills. Nice height although skinny. Does his own thing and backs himself every time. 2nd in WAFL Sandover Medal. Definitely worth 2nd pick in the draft and will be a serious AFL talent. Skill-wise, is ready-made and may get games next year but really needs at least a year to get some physical maturity."
To best describe where Varcoe is at now and what he brings to the draft table, I think it is worthwhile comparing '05 Varcoe to '02 Wells throughout this profile. That's not to say that Varcoe needs to be as good as Wells in order to be worth drafting early or to predict his AFL upside or longevity. A highlights tape from either at the same age would be equally impressive (although Wells' tape would run longer) and both show(ed) great upside as very bottom-age draftees.
Some general comparisons:-
1. Almost identical size, build, age and speed.
2. Like Wells, Varcoe too is a very young instinctive ball-carrying midfielder / flanker with blistering pace and acceleration. Wells was more routinely silky than Varcoe. Varcoe's best deeds are every bit as impressive as Wells' but he currently "gets it wrong" more often than Wells - more "hit or miss". Wells could generally be relied upon for the bread 'n butter stuff. Varcoe less so.
3. Both are slippery game-breakers. Like Wells, Varcoe will be capable of turning an AFL game with 3-4 bits of magic within a few minutes.
4. Both players have instinctive magic - the capability to do some freakish things in many games that most other players will never be able to do. At any given moment, Wells and Varcoe can make most opponents look pedestrian of mind or/or foot.
9. Varcoe will presumably go around where I have him (12) or maybe even earlier but would be highly unlikely to be top 10 or 12 in some other drafts. Wells, drafted at 2, was always at least a top 5 and with confidence and with tangible evidence for that confidence, evidence not available with Varcoe. eg Were Varcoe from WA instead of SA, he is a mile off getting many votes in the Sandover Medal. Remember, I'm not talking potential here - just where he is at the moment.
FWIW, both players had foot injuries in their draft year - Wells minor, Varcoe season-ending in round 6.
I expect that many of Varcoe's current deficiencies / inconsistencies will improve once he adds enough weight and has enough exposure to senior footy to give him more confidence in his physical resilience.
*DISPOSAL:
- Both are 80m players (run 30-40m then kick 40-50m) but Wells a very much more reliable kick (Varcoe has to lift his hit rate) and with greater power. Both capable of 50m goals on the run at top speed but Varcoe has more than his share of floaters, mongrel wobblers or miss-kicks - even under no pressure.
- Quite a few of Varcoe's kicks, especially on the run, are mongrels or floaters but he gets quite good depth with other kicks.
- Wells genuinely dual-sided. Varcoe more one-sided, although he does have a left foot for emergencies.
- "Deft touch" style - hand or foot.
- Both have very quick hands and good vision.
- Like Wells, some of Varcoe's feeds are special but his reliability is not. The good with the bad.
*DECISION-MAKING, SMARTS:
- Wells is routinely a good decision-maker. Varcoe often is.
- Both often display very quick brains, even under great pressure.
- Both often display excellent vision, particularly in close, but Varcoe sometimes has tunnel vision on the run.
- Wells typically gives the impression of feeling in control. More often than not, Varcoe does too but he does have occasional moments of apparent near-panic, sometimes resulting in a panic or "bang the ball onto the boot" disposal.
- Varcoe often commits himself "all or nothing". He will charge past an anticipated spill at pace in the hope of a collect but, if the ball doesn't pop out where he hoped it would, he has often over-committed and sailed way past the play, leaving his opponent as an extra number still at the play. When it comes off, Varcoe can look scintillating. When it doesn't, it can be costly. To this stage in his career, the rate of success isn't bad but, for AFL, it either must improve a fair bit or he must be more judicious in choosing when to take all-or-nothing risks.
- Both have very good evasion and traffic management. On the run, they can seamlessly wrong-foot an opponent without losing momentum.
*HANDS:
- Both players capable of often being exceptionally clean in vacuuming the ground ball at top speed without breaking stride.
- Inside any sort of traffic, Wells more routinely clean. Varcoe sometimes very clean, sometimes seems overwhelmed and fumbles.
*OVERHEAD MARKING:
- Wells probably better overhead, although Varcoe can take a good grab on occasions, typically from behind. Not a big feature of either's game though. Varcoe will take his share of the ones you would rate him 50/50 to take.
*ATHLETICISM:
- Both often look lightning quick and both make full use of their pace, skimming over the turf, a la Andrew McLeod, seemingly effortlessly. I have a suspicion that Wells is the quicker in terms of all-round natural pace. Both players have excellent cruise speed and acceleration on the run. However, Wells is "never" run down from behind whereas Varcoe, over the first 20m from a standing start, occasionally is.
- Wells had outstanding endurance. I don't have a strong handle on a comparison between Wells and Varcoe, mainly through Varcoe's injury and the fact that his endurance hasn't been tested at the same standard of footy as Wells had. Certainly both cover(ed) a lot of ground in a game and do a fair bit of hard running. I suspect Varcoe's endurance might become one of his strengths down the track
- Both lack(ed) strength due to being skinny very bottom-agers. Wells was even slightly lighter than Varcoe bit has added about 12kg. Varcoe has a similar frame so should also finish up fine. The style of game that the slippery Wells and Varcoe play is such that neither player needs to bulk up to the size that many AFL players must.
At the moment, Varcoe often struggles to keep his feet body-on-body and had that problem at U16s. Could be a balance issue but I'm putting it down to lack of strength, in whicj case I'm not concerned long-term.
*INTENSITY, ETHIC:
- Both players work in both directions. Both are excellent natural breakaway swoopers but both also prepared to get their own ball instead of being purely outside receivers/gatherers - unlike many with their pace and build. Both happy to chase, have "whispering death" closing speed, and can be keen tacklers, although not all the time.
Wells the more routinely effective tackler, whereas a fair few of Varcoe's don't currently stick, although that will improve a lot with added strength. Varcoe displays greater accountability to his direct opponent than Wells did. Varcoe fairly accountable - something not always in evidence among flashy, run-the-lines dashers.
- Both not 100% players. i.e. chases, 2nd and 3rd efforts, desperation are not things they could be relied upon to do all the time but more frequently than most kids of their type and their best efforts both very impressive.
- Wells, although not perfect by any means either, committed himself to pressure situations more frequently and more convincingly. Varcoe commits his body more sporadically - sometimes looking hesitant and at other times showing determination and fairly often desperation.
- Varcoe needs to be more desperate more often and to more frequently commit to attack the ball.
*CONSISTENCY:
- Wells could go quiet during parts of some games but he rarely had a quiet game and never appeared to lose confidence or touch. I can't recall Wells ever appearing to be nervous. Varcoe does have some quiet games and does sometimes appear to lose confidence and touch and/or seem a bit nervous.
*AFL VERSATILITY:
- Wells the more versatile. Varcoe is made to be, in traditional terminology, a wingman. That suits him ideally. No reason why he couldn't also be a good HFF or FP. Perhaps in time he could play BP as McLeaod sometimes does. I'm not convinced of his potential to become a "centre bounce" type of onballer but it is a slight possibility. Wells was potentially almost equally suited to wing or CB onballer and, subject to accountability, always looked capable of playing anywhere down the flanks.
*CSI (COMPARATIVE SCOPE for IMPROVEMENT):
- Other than both being very bottom-age and Varcoe having missed most of his draft season, no particularly special factors for either.
*QUERY (re Varcoe):
- Kicking consistency.
*OTHER STUFF:
- AIS
- Reserves then Seniors Rnd 5. Succumbed to what appeared to be foot stress fractures in R6 but many weeks later the injury was found to be serious bone/ ligament damage so virtually all '05 was a write-off. N/A for U18 '05 Champs due to that injury. Had to wear medical proctective boot until very recently so presumably unlikely to train before early '06.
Travis Varcoe (Central District)
179/71 bottom-age right foot (has other foot if necessary) dashing wingman/hff.
*STYLE LIKE: D Wells
*MY RANKING (not meant to reflect appropriate draft pick to use): 12
*PROBABILITY OF AFL CAREER: Likely. Ready Year 2.
- Within an AFL team list, could prove capable of SUSTAINING a ranking of 5-10.
*HURT FACTORS (Offensive/Defensive/Negative): M / M / M
*TRADEMARK:
- Flash by traffic to cleanly scoop at top speed without breaking stride, then scoot over the turf for 30m and kick a floater.
*SUMMARY ASSESSMENT, RECOMMENDATION:
(This assessment makes the assumption that the significant foot injury that ended his '05 early in the season has now been given the medical "all clear" and that he is likely to be as good as ever in time).
- Electrifying skinny dasher with exciting upside. Needs to improve his kicking consistency big-time however.
- Over the past couple of months, I've had Varcoe as early as about 6 and as late as about 25 in my rankings, a reflection of the NQR flavour of this draft and of Varcoe's current less than convincing mix of the freakish and the "special" (elite quality upside) with the "not up to scratch". In the end, upside won out but he has to reduce his incidence of errors in various areas.
- I have compared his style to Daniel Wells. Some might compare it to Aaron Davey but Varcoe is much more pro-active and gets his own ball much more than Davey and potentially has a more rounded game, albeit it with a current sub-optimum split of hits to misses during a match. Note that I am rating Varcoe's "style" as being similar to Wells but the track record that Wells took to his draft was much more impressive than Varcoe's, even allowing for Varcoe having missed most of this season through injury. Here is an excerpt from my '02 draft profile of Wells:-
"Very young, very silky instinctive midfielder / flanker with blistering pace and acceleration, fierce tackling and 2nd/3rd/4th efforts (when it suits) and excellent all-round skills. Nice height although skinny. Does his own thing and backs himself every time. 2nd in WAFL Sandover Medal. Definitely worth 2nd pick in the draft and will be a serious AFL talent. Skill-wise, is ready-made and may get games next year but really needs at least a year to get some physical maturity."
To best describe where Varcoe is at now and what he brings to the draft table, I think it is worthwhile comparing '05 Varcoe to '02 Wells throughout this profile. That's not to say that Varcoe needs to be as good as Wells in order to be worth drafting early or to predict his AFL upside or longevity. A highlights tape from either at the same age would be equally impressive (although Wells' tape would run longer) and both show(ed) great upside as very bottom-age draftees.
Some general comparisons:-
1. Almost identical size, build, age and speed.
2. Like Wells, Varcoe too is a very young instinctive ball-carrying midfielder / flanker with blistering pace and acceleration. Wells was more routinely silky than Varcoe. Varcoe's best deeds are every bit as impressive as Wells' but he currently "gets it wrong" more often than Wells - more "hit or miss". Wells could generally be relied upon for the bread 'n butter stuff. Varcoe less so.
3. Both are slippery game-breakers. Like Wells, Varcoe will be capable of turning an AFL game with 3-4 bits of magic within a few minutes.
4. Both players have instinctive magic - the capability to do some freakish things in many games that most other players will never be able to do. At any given moment, Wells and Varcoe can make most opponents look pedestrian of mind or/or foot.
9. Varcoe will presumably go around where I have him (12) or maybe even earlier but would be highly unlikely to be top 10 or 12 in some other drafts. Wells, drafted at 2, was always at least a top 5 and with confidence and with tangible evidence for that confidence, evidence not available with Varcoe. eg Were Varcoe from WA instead of SA, he is a mile off getting many votes in the Sandover Medal. Remember, I'm not talking potential here - just where he is at the moment.
FWIW, both players had foot injuries in their draft year - Wells minor, Varcoe season-ending in round 6.
I expect that many of Varcoe's current deficiencies / inconsistencies will improve once he adds enough weight and has enough exposure to senior footy to give him more confidence in his physical resilience.
*DISPOSAL:
- Both are 80m players (run 30-40m then kick 40-50m) but Wells a very much more reliable kick (Varcoe has to lift his hit rate) and with greater power. Both capable of 50m goals on the run at top speed but Varcoe has more than his share of floaters, mongrel wobblers or miss-kicks - even under no pressure.
- Quite a few of Varcoe's kicks, especially on the run, are mongrels or floaters but he gets quite good depth with other kicks.
- Wells genuinely dual-sided. Varcoe more one-sided, although he does have a left foot for emergencies.
- "Deft touch" style - hand or foot.
- Both have very quick hands and good vision.
- Like Wells, some of Varcoe's feeds are special but his reliability is not. The good with the bad.
*DECISION-MAKING, SMARTS:
- Wells is routinely a good decision-maker. Varcoe often is.
- Both often display very quick brains, even under great pressure.
- Both often display excellent vision, particularly in close, but Varcoe sometimes has tunnel vision on the run.
- Wells typically gives the impression of feeling in control. More often than not, Varcoe does too but he does have occasional moments of apparent near-panic, sometimes resulting in a panic or "bang the ball onto the boot" disposal.
- Varcoe often commits himself "all or nothing". He will charge past an anticipated spill at pace in the hope of a collect but, if the ball doesn't pop out where he hoped it would, he has often over-committed and sailed way past the play, leaving his opponent as an extra number still at the play. When it comes off, Varcoe can look scintillating. When it doesn't, it can be costly. To this stage in his career, the rate of success isn't bad but, for AFL, it either must improve a fair bit or he must be more judicious in choosing when to take all-or-nothing risks.
- Both have very good evasion and traffic management. On the run, they can seamlessly wrong-foot an opponent without losing momentum.
*HANDS:
- Both players capable of often being exceptionally clean in vacuuming the ground ball at top speed without breaking stride.
- Inside any sort of traffic, Wells more routinely clean. Varcoe sometimes very clean, sometimes seems overwhelmed and fumbles.
*OVERHEAD MARKING:
- Wells probably better overhead, although Varcoe can take a good grab on occasions, typically from behind. Not a big feature of either's game though. Varcoe will take his share of the ones you would rate him 50/50 to take.
*ATHLETICISM:
- Both often look lightning quick and both make full use of their pace, skimming over the turf, a la Andrew McLeod, seemingly effortlessly. I have a suspicion that Wells is the quicker in terms of all-round natural pace. Both players have excellent cruise speed and acceleration on the run. However, Wells is "never" run down from behind whereas Varcoe, over the first 20m from a standing start, occasionally is.
- Wells had outstanding endurance. I don't have a strong handle on a comparison between Wells and Varcoe, mainly through Varcoe's injury and the fact that his endurance hasn't been tested at the same standard of footy as Wells had. Certainly both cover(ed) a lot of ground in a game and do a fair bit of hard running. I suspect Varcoe's endurance might become one of his strengths down the track
- Both lack(ed) strength due to being skinny very bottom-agers. Wells was even slightly lighter than Varcoe bit has added about 12kg. Varcoe has a similar frame so should also finish up fine. The style of game that the slippery Wells and Varcoe play is such that neither player needs to bulk up to the size that many AFL players must.
At the moment, Varcoe often struggles to keep his feet body-on-body and had that problem at U16s. Could be a balance issue but I'm putting it down to lack of strength, in whicj case I'm not concerned long-term.
*INTENSITY, ETHIC:
- Both players work in both directions. Both are excellent natural breakaway swoopers but both also prepared to get their own ball instead of being purely outside receivers/gatherers - unlike many with their pace and build. Both happy to chase, have "whispering death" closing speed, and can be keen tacklers, although not all the time.
Wells the more routinely effective tackler, whereas a fair few of Varcoe's don't currently stick, although that will improve a lot with added strength. Varcoe displays greater accountability to his direct opponent than Wells did. Varcoe fairly accountable - something not always in evidence among flashy, run-the-lines dashers.
- Both not 100% players. i.e. chases, 2nd and 3rd efforts, desperation are not things they could be relied upon to do all the time but more frequently than most kids of their type and their best efforts both very impressive.
- Wells, although not perfect by any means either, committed himself to pressure situations more frequently and more convincingly. Varcoe commits his body more sporadically - sometimes looking hesitant and at other times showing determination and fairly often desperation.
- Varcoe needs to be more desperate more often and to more frequently commit to attack the ball.
*CONSISTENCY:
- Wells could go quiet during parts of some games but he rarely had a quiet game and never appeared to lose confidence or touch. I can't recall Wells ever appearing to be nervous. Varcoe does have some quiet games and does sometimes appear to lose confidence and touch and/or seem a bit nervous.
*AFL VERSATILITY:
- Wells the more versatile. Varcoe is made to be, in traditional terminology, a wingman. That suits him ideally. No reason why he couldn't also be a good HFF or FP. Perhaps in time he could play BP as McLeaod sometimes does. I'm not convinced of his potential to become a "centre bounce" type of onballer but it is a slight possibility. Wells was potentially almost equally suited to wing or CB onballer and, subject to accountability, always looked capable of playing anywhere down the flanks.
*CSI (COMPARATIVE SCOPE for IMPROVEMENT):
- Other than both being very bottom-age and Varcoe having missed most of his draft season, no particularly special factors for either.
*QUERY (re Varcoe):
- Kicking consistency.
*OTHER STUFF:
- AIS
- Reserves then Seniors Rnd 5. Succumbed to what appeared to be foot stress fractures in R6 but many weeks later the injury was found to be serious bone/ ligament damage so virtually all '05 was a write-off. N/A for U18 '05 Champs due to that injury. Had to wear medical proctective boot until very recently so presumably unlikely to train before early '06.
