Analysis The Disciples of Daniel the Diminutive, elite footballer

[Charlie Bucket]

Really so ultimately the person with ball is not the one in total control over where it goes to in the forward line and someone with better skill cannot put it in a better position for the forward?

They are in control, but you can only hit a target that is there.
What you’re suggesting is that we forever have open targets on the lead to be hit lace but our ball carriers decide to go the long bomb for the sake of it?

 

[lachy]

They are in control, but you can only hit a target that is there.
What you’re suggesting is that we forever have open targets on the lead to be hit lace but our ball carriers decide to go the long bomb for the sake of it?

No it is not what I am saying. We often have targets that require a precise kick to advantage. Too often our ball carriers consistently bomb the ball long when there is a better option and that may be because they are not an elite kick. Or the actual disposal is to our forwards disadvantage.

Not sure where you got in your head anything about lace out on a lead, but you seem to be good at stating I have suggested something I never have, then arguing against to prove yourself right.

To become the best team you need to minimise your weaknesses and amplify your strengths. Our connections forward as well as our turnovers high forward are a significant issue for us if we want to move from being a mid table team to a consistent top 4 team.

Results over the last 5 seasons including this prove that. Statistics will also bare that out, but a real fact is we have not been close to a top 4 team since 2016, where yes we finished 7th but only 2 games off top and one off second.

Daniel COULD assist in playing a part in solving these issues as he has developed greatly since moving back, and therefore has ability, skills and importantly experience he did not have when he was last playing high up the ground. It may not work. when you are coaching there are many things you try that do not work, but do we just sit back, allow the team to be middling with the same old issues, and Caleb get's AA selection as a back, or do we try and better utilise one of our weapons?

Play our best players where they will have the biggest influence for the team, which ultimately will give the player greater success and satisfaction, rather than where they may get some personal rewards. I have no doubt Naughton would be an AA backman, but for our team to be successful for a sustained period it will likely be with Naughton as a forward.

 

[The Slitherin' Snake]

CD averaged 2.3 inside 50’s, 0.5 goal assists, 6.5 goals, 4.8 score involvements in his games between debuting in 2015 and his move to defence at the end of 2018.

Could he grow those numbers if moved fwd of centre now? Possibly.
He would need to improve his output considerably for it to be an improvement on he’s previous efforts though.

Do you believe his 2015-18 output is of more benefit to the side than what he’s delivering at the moment?

To be honest, I think you are arguing in bad faith a bit. No one is denying this point - Caleb Daniel is a better footballer now than he was 2015-2018. So using his stats from his first 3 years of footy to compare to now is unfair and not really relevant. As Lachy said, there are a lot of aspects to his game that have improved since he moved back. I'd love to see how that translates to a mid/forward role now

The argument boils down to where you want your best and most creative users of the ball - forward or back. I want them forward so we are giving our forwards the easiest possible opportunity to kick goals.

 

[The Slitherin' Snake]

They are in control, but you can only hit a target that is there.
What you’re suggesting is that we forever have open targets on the lead to be hit lace but our ball carriers decide to go the long bomb for the sake of it?

Strongly disagree. Smart users can put the ball where the want the forward to run or hit a lead or at least kick it to the forwards advantage. Outside of the Bont, our mids don't do any of that very well

 

[Boyd oh Boyd]

In just 2018
As a forward/mid/wing in 16 games: 18.7 disposals, .25 goals, 1.75 rebounds, 2.25 inside 50s, 1.25 clearances, 5.5 CP, .19 bounces, .25 goal assists
As a defender for 4 games: 30.3 disposals, 0 goals, 3.75 rebounds, 2 inside 50s, 1.5 clearances, 6.75 CP. 1.25 bounces, 1 goal assists

Yeah he's had some natural progression of his game, but the impact of the positional move was immediate. Up the ground any half decent player can cover him easily because of his size. In defence the majority of the time his opponent is more focused on winning their own footy than stopping Daniel so he runs free. And when the coaches do make the call to dedicate someone to him Beveridge exploits that. He has Daniel start in defence and push up to the stoppages or to the wings. Best case Daniel gets lost in the congestion and wins a few touches in damaging positions, worst case we've just taken away a forward from them. Exactly what happened against Hawthorn. Clarko put someone on him after a dominant first half, so Daniel starts in defence and pushes up to the back of the stoppages which is how he got those 7 inside 50s. Worth noting it was for 0 goal assists and 2 score involvements, so the delivery to our forwards didn't help a great deal. But speaking of score involvements -

2015: 4.2 (243rd)
2016: 5.79 (97th)
2017: 5.25 (152nd)
2018: 4.1 (262nd)
2019: 4.65 (181st)
2020: 3.56 (153rd)

In other words, his ranking in score involvements has barely taken a hit despite being in defence. 2016 obviously his best year but worth noting this stat includes finals, I don't have just the H&A score but it would be lower. In 2020, of the 152 players ahead of him 151 are either forwards or defenders (Houli gets 3.75 from 8 games at 120th). He is the best (or second best) in the business at score involvements from defence. We are getting the best of both worlds right now, someone moving the ball from our defence at an elite level while putting it in positions where it eventually ends up in a score. I don't see the net benefit from moving him from the position he's elite in.

 

[lachy]

In just 2018
As a forward/mid/wing in 16 games: 18.7 disposals, .25 goals, 1.75 rebounds, 2.25 inside 50s, 1.25 clearances, 5.5 CP, .19 bounces, .25 goal assists
As a defender for 4 games: 30.3 disposals, 0 goals, 3.75 rebounds, 2 inside 50s, 1.5 clearances, 6.75 CP. 1.25 bounces, 1 goal assists

Yeah he's had some natural progression of his game, but the impact of the positional move was immediate. Up the ground any half decent player can cover him easily because of his size. In defence the majority of the time his opponent is more focused on winning their own footy than stopping Daniel so he runs free. And when the coaches do make the call to dedicate someone to him Beveridge exploits that. He has Daniel start in defence and push up to the stoppages or to the wings. Best case Daniel gets lost in the congestion and wins a few touches in damaging positions, worst case we've just taken away a forward from them. Exactly what happened against Hawthorn. Clarko put someone on him after a dominant first half, so Daniel starts in defence and pushes up to the back of the stoppages which is how he got those 7 inside 50s. Worth noting it was for 0 goal assists and 2 score involvements, so the delivery to our forwards didn't help a great deal. But speaking of score involvements -

2015: 4.2 (243rd)
2016: 5.79 (97th)
2017: 5.25 (152nd)
2018: 4.1 (262nd)
2019: 4.65 (181st)
2020: 3.56 (153rd)

In other words, his ranking in score involvements has barely taken a hit despite being in defence. 2016 obviously his best year but worth noting this stat includes finals, I don't have just the H&A score but it would be lower. In 2020, of the 152 players ahead of him 151 are either forwards or defenders (Houli gets 3.75 from 8 games at 120th). He is the best (or second best) in the business at score involvements from defence. We are getting the best of both worlds right now, someone moving the ball from our defence at an elite level while putting it in positions where it eventually ends up in a score. I don't see the net benefit from moving him from the position he's elite in.

Nice statistical analysis.(Being genuine not sarcastic as I know some take this as)

Not sure anyone is not saying he is not elite back where he was.

But correct me if I am wrong your happy for him to be 153rd in score involvements down back and us to look for alternative we have been searching for in a while, for actual scores that win games, as well turnovers from moving forward, instead of now he is a developed experienced player COULD get in the top 20 in score involvements in the league and we try to develop another player to be in the 150 to 160 range of score involvements in the backline? In other words though it does not work for the team at the moment, don't try something with what we have, look for something we don't? It is what you in essence are saying and is also a valid opinion.

Just on you Hawthorn analysis there is as much space on the ground mid through high forward as there is high back.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

To be honest, I think you are arguing in bad faith a bit. No one is denying this point - Caleb Daniel is a better footballer now than he was 2015-2018. So using his stats from his first 3 years of footy to compare to now is unfair and not really relevant. As Lachy said, there are a lot of aspects to his game that have improved since he moved back. I'd love to see how that translates to a mid/forward role now

The argument boils down to where you want your best and most creative users of the ball - forward or back. I want them forward so we are giving our forwards the easiest possible opportunity to kick goals.

The comparison of those stats aren’t for his current role, they were to give an indication of what we’d see if he moved back in to the role of 2015-18. Which is what you and Lachy want.

As I said previously, I think his personal improvement since 2018 is being overstated. We aren’t seeing a much different Daniel than prior to late 2018 (his immediate impact down back shows this), we’re seeing him in a much more suitable role.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

Strongly disagree. Smart users can put the ball where the want the forward to run or hit a lead or at least kick it to the forwards advantage. Outside of the Bont, our mids don't do any of that very well

Again, you’re leaving too much for the ball carrier to do.
Effective inside 50’s rely on a functioning system inside 50.
Yes, good ball users can bring players to the ball but that’s irrelevant if the fwds aren’t doing their job and the oppo defence are working well.

How often do we see Bont or anyone of his level execute the passes as you say? Once, maybe twice a game if we’re really lucky? How many of those result in goals? Half, one maybe if we’re lucky ?
What impact does Daniel have on these numbers?
Removing him from his current role, it’s almost robbing Peter to pay the tax man.

 

[lachy]

In just 2018
As a forward/mid/wing in 16 games: 18.7 disposals, .25 goals, 1.75 rebounds, 2.25 inside 50s, 1.25 clearances, 5.5 CP, .19 bounces, .25 goal assists
As a defender for 4 games: 30.3 disposals, 0 goals, 3.75 rebounds, 2 inside 50s, 1.5 clearances, 6.75 CP. 1.25 bounces, 1 goal assists

Yeah he's had some natural progression of his game, but the impact of the positional move was immediate. Up the ground any half decent player can cover him easily because of his size. In defence the majority of the time his opponent is more focused on winning their own footy than stopping Daniel so he runs free. And when the coaches do make the call to dedicate someone to him Beveridge exploits that. He has Daniel start in defence and push up to the stoppages or to the wings. Best case Daniel gets lost in the congestion and wins a few touches in damaging positions, worst case we've just taken away a forward from them. Exactly what happened against Hawthorn. Clarko put someone on him after a dominant first half, so Daniel starts in defence and pushes up to the back of the stoppages which is how he got those 7 inside 50s. Worth noting it was for 0 goal assists and 2 score involvements, so the delivery to our forwards didn't help a great deal. But speaking of score involvements -

2015: 4.2 (243rd)
2016: 5.79 (97th)
2017: 5.25 (152nd)
2018: 4.1 (262nd)
2019: 4.65 (181st)
2020: 3.56 (153rd)

In other words, his ranking in score involvements has barely taken a hit despite being in defence. 2016 obviously his best year but worth noting this stat includes finals, I don't have just the H&A score but it would be lower. In 2020, of the 152 players ahead of him 151 are either forwards or defenders (Houli gets 3.75 from 8 games at 120th). He is the best (or second best) in the business at score involvements from defence. We are getting the best of both worlds right now, someone moving the ball from our defence at an elite level while putting it in positions where it eventually ends up in a score. I don't see the net benefit from moving him from the position he's elite in.

Just on Stats as a matter of interest are you able to provide the following:

In 2019 as a team what were our score involvements from the backline when Caleb was there and then for the second half of the season when he was not and how did that compare to the league and the same for 2020.

 

[Boyd oh Boyd]

Nice statistical analysis.(Being genuine not sarcastic as I know some take this as)

Not sure anyone is not saying he is not elite back where he was.

But correct me if I am wrong your happy for him to be 153rd in score involvements down back and us to look for alternative we have been searching for in a while, for actual scores that win games, as well turnovers from moving forward, instead of now he is a developed experienced player COULD get in the top 20 in score involvements in the league and we try to develop another player to be in the 150 to 160 range of score involvements in the backline? In other words though it does not work for the team at the moment, don't try something with what we have, look for something we don't? It is what you in essence are saying and is also a valid opinion.

Just on you Hawthorn analysis there is as much space on the ground mid through high forward as there is high back.

Yeah I'm happy for that. Same as I'm happy that Bailey Williams is 310th for goals with one every 5 games, or Bont is 125th at .62, and I'm happy with them staying in their positions because what the occasionally offer in forward play is the cherry on top to what is actually their game. Same as Daniel's game is to play as a rebounding, switching, ground level defender which he does extraordinarily well, the score involvements is just a very very nice cherry on top of that.

Part of that is I don't beleive he would have the same impact up the ground, or that another player could have the same impact as he does in defence. There may be as much space at high forward but there's a reason why the biggest possession winner at high forward in the comp is probably Walters at 17.6 (who gets midfield time as well, which boosts that), but there is over a dozen players who get more at half back (Lloyd, Laird, McDonald, Maynard, Daniel, Crisp, Witherden, Howe, Houli, Saad, Short, Docherty, Salem, Ridley, Mills). It is much easier to win the ball in defence because you are very rarely being shut down the way you are as a forward in a defending zone. Maybe, maybe, he could get something like 15 touches, 5 score involvements a game, which would make him about 20th, but that's only 1.44 extra a game and you lose all of that defensive rebound he provides. The way he kicks out of defence isn't just different to anyone in our team it's different to anyone in the league. I don't think we can replace it.

Just on Stats as a matter of interest are you able to provide the following:

In 2019 as a team what were our score involvements from the backline when Caleb was there and then for the second half of the season when he was not and how did that compare to the league and the same for 2020.

Sorry, I only have the season averages. I can't even seperate home and away season from finals which is very irritating. I can tell you Johannisen was the best defender in the league at getting score involvements that year at 5.25/108th. Of that .6 were his own scoring shots, and .8 were goal assists. That isn't anything like the question you asked but I thought it was interesting anyway.

 

[lachy]

Again, you’re leaving too much for the ball carrier to do.
Effective inside 50’s rely on a functioning system inside 50.
Yes, good ball users can bring players to the ball but that’s irrelevant if the fwds aren’t doing their job and the oppo defence are working well.

How often do we see Bont or anyone of his level execute the passes as you say? Once, maybe twice a game if we’re really lucky? How many of those result in goals? Half, one maybe if we’re lucky ?
What impact does Daniel have on these numbers?
Removing him from his current role, it’s almost robbing Peter to pay the tax man.

Leaving too much for the ball carrier to do? Elite kicks are precious as their disposal as well as elite decision making opens up forward lines against a god defence. A good ball carrier actually can force and enhance the forwards opportunity as it allows the forwards to move the back out of their defensive systems if they have full confidence in what the ball carrier can do.

Good forward entries can open up any defensive system with the exception of a slow play which allows flooding. A functioning forward system is part dependant on movement but it always falls down if the disposal in is not of the highest level either due to pressure from the opposition on the ball carrier, poor decision making from the ball carrier or poor skill from the ball carrier. The ball carrier is by far the most important person of efficient and effective forward entries

As a matter of interest are you a coach or player in the EDFL?

 

[BEaston]

Moving Daniel forward amplifies his weaknesses as he'll need to be a target. How will he win the ball to deliver it with a defender on him at all times?

Playing in the defensive system covers his weaknesses. This has been raised multiple times, no rebuttal put forward as yet.

 

[lachy]

Yeah I'm happy for that. Same as I'm happy that Bailey Williams is 310th for goals with one every 5 games, or Bont is 125th at .62, and I'm happy with them staying in their positions because what the occasionally offer in forward play is the cherry on top to what is actually their game. Same as Daniel's game is to play as a rebounding, switching, ground level defender which he does extraordinarily well, the score involvements is just a very very nice cherry on top of that.

Part of that is I don't beleive he would have the same impact up the ground, or that another player could have the same impact as he does in defence. There may be as much space at high forward but there's a reason why the biggest possession winner at high forward in the comp is probably Walters at 17.6 (who gets midfield time as well, which boosts that), but there is over a dozen players who get more at half back (Lloyd, Laird, McDonald, Maynard, Daniel, Crisp, Witherden, Howe, Houli, Saad, Short, Docherty, Salem, Ridley, Mills). It is much easier to win the ball in defence because you are very rarely being shut down the way you are as a forward in a defending zone. Maybe, maybe, he could get something like 15 touches, 5 score involvements a game, which would make him about 20th, but that's only 1.44 extra a game and you lose all of that defensive rebound he provides. The way he kicks out of defence isn't just different to anyone in our team it's different to anyone in the league. I don't think we can replace it.

Fair reply and your opinion is entirely valid, obviously I disagree but not because of a lack of capability but I do think you can replace his role down back but will find it harder to find something he MIGHT offer higher up the ground rotating wing, mid, high forward.

Interesting enough in my opinion you have named the player I think could replace him enough in your example, Bailey Williams skills and decision making and consistency has improved markedly, and I admit I never thought he would become as good or as important as he has

 

[lachy]

Moving Daniel forward amplifies his weaknesses as he'll need to be a target. How will he win the ball to deliver it with a defender on him at all times?

Playing in the defensive system covers his weaknesses. This has been raised multiple times, no rebuttal put forward as yet.

I am not sure who is arguing just moving him forward. It is higher up the ground wing, mid high forward delivering the ball into the forward line so there has been no rebuttal to a proposition that most are not recommending

 

[BEaston]

I am not sure who is arguing just moving him forward. It is higher up the ground wing, mid high forward delivering the ball into the forward line so there has been no rebuttal to a proposition that most are not recommending

yeah what I said applies to wing and high forward. (How is high forward not forward btw ???)

he is not replacing any of bont, libba, macrae, smith, dunkley in our on ball rotation if that's what you mean by mid. not even worth considering.

 

[lachy]

yeah what I said applies to wing and high forward. (How is high forward not forward btw ???)

he is not replacing any of bont, libba, macrae, smith, dunkley in our on ball rotation if that's what you mean by mid. not even worth considering.

Wing and high forward has as much space as half back and is no different to him playing down back in regards to getting exposed as you say. He is just as easily tagged by a forward as JJ has been down back as he is in the other positions of the ground. High forward, outside 50 is a very important distinction when the game is played on an oval, it is called space.

Who said he is replacing any of Bont, Libba. Mac Crae, Smith or Dunkley? They are not our only mid rotations and at quite a few times in a game they rotate through the wings and forward anyway. This is not binary

 

[Charlie Bucket]

Leaving too much for the ball carrier to do? Elite kicks are precious as their disposal as well as elite decision making opens up forward lines against a god defence. A good ball carrier actually can force and enhance the forwards opportunity as it allows the forwards to move the back out of their defensive systems if they have full confidence in what the ball carrier can do.

Good forward entries can open up any defensive system with the exception of a slow play which allows flooding. A functioning forward system is part dependant on movement but it always falls down if the disposal in is not of the highest level either due to pressure from the opposition on the ball carrier, poor decision making from the ball carrier or poor skill from the ball carrier. The ball carrier is by far the most important person of efficient and effective forward entries

As a matter of interest are you a coach or player in the EDFL?

I’m certainly not disagreeing the disposal inside 50 is important.
But it’s on the back of the leading patterns and system that a team has inside 50 and the effectiveness against a decent defence.

We could have 3 Calebs and 3 Bonts delivering the ball inside 50 but their effectiveness relies on other factors, as mentioned above.

Currently ours doesn’t function well at the moment and the reality that is current day AFL is that the elite kicks don’t get enough of a chance to create chances when fwd lines aren’t well oiled. And when coming up against a defensive system like a West Coast it makes things even more difficult.
Yes, a better ball user improves the chance of an effective inside 50 but the balance doesn’t swing in the manner in which you are suggesting.

Fwd lines just don’t function on the back of better inside 50’s. They both rely on each other. That’s the point I’m trying to make. Do you not agree with this?

 

[bobs head soup]

He's not the Messiah, but he's a very neat ball user (apologies to Terry Jones).

 

[Charlie Bucket]

Leaving too much for the ball carrier to do? Elite kicks are precious as their disposal as well as elite decision making opens up forward lines against a god defence. A good ball carrier actually can force and enhance the forwards opportunity as it allows the forwards to move the back out of their defensive systems if they have full confidence in what the ball carrier can do.

Good forward entries can open up any defensive system with the exception of a slow play which allows flooding. A functioning forward system is part dependant on movement but it always falls down if the disposal in is not of the highest level either due to pressure from the opposition on the ball carrier, poor decision making from the ball carrier or poor skill from the ball carrier. The ball carrier is by far the most important person of efficient and effective forward entries

As a matter of interest are you a coach or player in the EDFL?

I tried to PM you about your last question but for some reason it wouldn’t allow me.
Happy to discuss away from here.

 

[lachy]

I’m certainly not disagreeing the disposal inside 50 is important.
But it’s on the back of the leading patterns and system that a team has inside 50 and the effectiveness against a decent defence.

We could have 3 Calebs and 3 Bonts delivering the ball inside 50 but their effectiveness relies on other factors, as mentioned above.

Currently ours doesn’t function well at the moment and the reality that is current day AFL is that the elite kicks don’t get enough of a chance to create chances when fwd lines aren’t well oiled. And when coming up against a defensive system like a West Coast it makes things even more difficult.
Yes, a better ball user improves the chance of an effective inside 50 but the balance doesn’t swing in the manner in which you are suggesting.

Fwd lines just don’t function on the back of better inside 50’s. They both rely on each other. That’s the point I’m trying to make. Do you not agree with this?

I do agree that they rely on each other fully Charlie.

Other than this year where I am not at the game to watch the forward movement, one issue of many I have noted watching our forward entries is the amount of time our forwards have either worked to a great position or together have created opportunistic space and they have either been ignored or the kick butchered or consistently kicked in high allowing opposition defensive systems to either nullify the attack, force a shot at goal from a poor position or worse still turned over which exposes our would be successful high press that puts our backs out and the opposition score out the back.

Forward lines do function better on BOTH on the back of better inside 50's as well as forward line functioning. You are correct in that in today's football forward lines in particular do not function as well as a team as they used to, partly because as many mids, both through the wings and on ball also rotate through there.

It is this reason why elite disposal into there is absolute gold as they can make up for a lesser forward line function.

Any team that can do this consistently will go a long way to being successful and someone with Calebs elite skills do not grow on trees and MAYBE moving him higher up the ground COULD provide that advantage we need to be consistently successful. It may not work.

My concern is if we don't try it and either fail to make the finals or go out first week and then front up again next season with the same issues how does this group ever become successful? JUH may be a brilliant player but unless our delivery into the forward line improves no matter what the system it is harder to score when your best system is a Chaos ball.

 

[lachy]

I tried to PM you about your last question but for some reason it wouldn’t allow me.
Happy to discuss away from here.

No worries, at all. I will try and PM you and see if you can reply.

Same issue as your having

 

[BEaston]

Wing and high forward has as much space as half back and is no different to him playing down back in regards to getting exposed as you say. He is just as easily tagged by a forward as JJ has been down back as he is in the other positions of the ground. High forward, outside 50 is a very important distinction when the game is played on an oval, it is called space.

Who said he is replacing any of Bont, Libba. Mac Crae, Smith or Dunkley? They are not our only mid rotations and at quite a few times in a game they rotate through the wings and forward anyway. This is not binary

Nothing you said there applies to what I'm talking about in the slightest.

You said mid, those are our mids (we'd already made the distinction from wings), that's all that's left unless you meant English.

Anyway, he's found his position now. Pretty settled and killing it.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

No worries, at all. I will try and PM you and see if you can reply.

Same issue as your having

Ah well. To give you the short answer... Not any more, not any more and no.

 

[Next Waiting]

I think the thing about Daniel inhabiting the defensive part of the ground primarily is that his kicks and decisions can break a web or zone very quickly.
His 30m kick, marked and played on quickly, suddenly turns into an 80m gain in the blink of an eye in the right receivers hands.

Daniel to Bont on our D50, wheels, suddenly I50 in 2 kicks and 10 seconds. Very hard to scramble the defense if Bont's kick is good. Daniel kicking freely on both sides is a nightmare for the opposition to counter. How do you second guess him as long as you have more than one receiving option to a 30m pass. Beats the sh1t out of the long bomb down the line where the hang time is forever and the defence can rally and get numbers to the contest.

Stays in the defensive half for mine with license to drift forward on attack if he sees an opportunity. A net gain residing in and launching from the defensive sector but I feel his effectiveness would be lost in the physicality of the close quarter combat in midfield (just not big enough) and not an aerial option F50.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

All Australian Caleb Daniel