Politics Betting Thread

[Chism]

thought this was the punting thread not the conspiracy thread?

This and the next post that is not punting related is getting deleted and the offender is getting a thread ban regardless if you are replying to someone that may have quoted you etc.

Take it to other boards that are discussing the election and it is not like it is not being discussed anywhere!

 

[maskmcgee]

Are there any corps that let you multi individual seats?

Doubt it because at least 50 seats are ultra safe, and 1.01^50=$1.60 then I'd put 100g's on it and have 160g's so it's pretty clear why.

 

[54Dogs]

Doubt it because at least 50 seats are ultra safe, and 1.01^50=$1.60 then I'd put 100g's on it and have 160g's so it's pretty clear why.

Makes sense. It's a shame they don't have them where the favs are say 1.50 or greater, some interest would be good for turnover. I see the Tab have some up on specific seats only

 

[maskmcgee]

Ok forget that BetRight will let you put a 12 leg multi on individual seats, almost certainly by mistake.

 

[Crock Hunter]

Ok forget that BetRight will let you put a 12 leg multi on individual seats, almost certainly by mistake.

What’s a good multi to run with?

 

[maskmcgee]

What’s a good multi to run with?

I haven't done anything yet, but I put 12 seats where Labor was paying $1.20-1.40, and second in odds was Coalition, not Greens or Independent, seemed a pretty safe sort of bet if there is indeed a 6 point swing to Labor. Offered about 5$ odds. If you put in a more 50/50ish seat it jumps into the teens or 20s, could do that each way and split it.

 

[54Dogs]

BF flucs on Libs. Left axis is price, right axis is amount traded.

The dive to odds on in the middle is week 1 of campaign when Albo had a stinker. They then drifted north of $5 before firming last 2 days

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

Surely Albo wears a red tie? Also what’s this DJ-ing rubbish? $1.50 Albo won’t DJ tonight? I’m sorry what?

 

[The_Steadier]

Surely Albo wears a red tie? Also what’s this DJ-ing rubbish? $1.50 Albo won’t DJ tonight? I’m sorry what?

Albo was doing the 'daggy dad being cool/uncool' schitck many years before scomo started wearing skatewear hats etc.

(From 2015):

 

[rank and file]

Worst case scenario for me today,Bombers win,
LNP wins.
Mad Morrison multi to ease the pain,
Ess win into LNP win,will wait till LNP blows out to over $5 then pull the trigger.
Anyway,Ladies Day today, I'm off to the races.
Blackbooker
Cvn R6 no3 Madrid Centro e/w

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

Albo was doing the 'daggy dad being cool/uncool' schitck many years before scomo started wearing skatewear hats etc.

(From 2015):

I don’t follow any of these clowns, is $1.50 to not DJ free money?

 

[iluvparis]

I think most of us had the right idea. Libs were right for a pounding and any remotely good ALP campaign would have been a bloodbath.

 

[54Dogs]

I think most of us had the right idea. Libs were right for a pounding and any remotely good ALP campaign would have been a bloodbath.

IE not KK in South West Sydney

One of the more stupid parachute picks you will see and blew a 12% margin

 

[NYRB]

After the Trump news yesteday and how he acted towards Meadows and co, i think by the end of this weekend De Santis will be favourite for the Republican Nominee in 2024:

 

[54Dogs]

The Barilaro debacle has the potential to sway this market significantly. Nothing people hate more than jobs for the boys. COL should also help Labour with the biggest price rise for electricity to occur in NSW along with 4-5 more interest rate rises before the campaign.

Would be with Labour clearly atm

 

[iluvparis]

The Barilaro debacle has the potential to sway this market significantly. Nothing people hate more than jobs for the boys. COL should also help Labour with the biggest price rise for electricity to occur in NSW along with 4-5 more interest rate rises before the campaign.

Would be with Labour clearly atm

View attachment 1436226

Main problem is that NSW labor are like the Vic libs. Irrelevant and a shambles

 

[54Dogs]

Also fair. Will prob come down to how many people vote against Dom and Co rather than voting for Labour

 

[NYRB]

Rishi Sunak and Sajid Javad have handed in their resignations and on the betting exchanges, this has implications for Boris Johnson to depart in 2022. Bit of a movement in price after the announcement.....

 

[54Dogs]

Rishi Sunak and Sajid Javad have handed in their resignations and on the betting exchanges, this has implications for Boris Johnson to depart in 2022. Bit of a movement in price after the announcement.....

View attachment 1440389

Post the failure of the vote to remove him, I thought he was safe until the next election unless he chooses to resign which he has repeatedly showed he won't. 1.09 seems short for a 2022 exit

 

[54Dogs]

Post the failure of the vote to remove him, I thought he was safe until the next election unless he chooses to resign which he has repeatedly showed he won't. 1.09 seems short for a 2022 exit

Then again

 

[NYRB]

Rishi Sunak I reckon should get the Conservative leadership when Boris stands down

 

[NYRB]

Next 8 Candidates to Replace Boris Johnson as the Prime Minister . The Tories want to announce their new leader on September 5, 2022. We have a new favourite.

Mordaunt 2.90
Sunak 3
Truss 4.90
Badenoch 15.50
Tugendhat 30
Hunt 44
Braverman 90
Zahawi 120

 

[NYRB]

Im leaning less towards Sunak despite him shortening over my last 2 posts. Someone came out and found that he said this on Twitter:

 

[NYRB]

Its looking like a battle down to 2 between Mordaunt and Sunak

 

[NYRB]

Kemi Badenoch is the bolter in from 120 into 16 this morning on the Betting Exchanges (early UK time)

 

[iluvparis]

Tough choice for many Tory voters having to pick between a colored man and a pair of women.