Politics Betting Thread

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HeathComeBack said:
thought this was the punting thread not the conspiracy thread?
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This and the next post that is not punting related is getting deleted and the offender is getting a thread ban regardless if you are replying to someone that may have quoted you etc.

Take it to other boards that are discussing the election and it is not like it is not being discussed anywhere!
 

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Gonna assume it's living in bubble. I, and everyone else I know, are going to vote yes. But the no voice is overwhelming in all forms of the media and other areas of society I have little exposure to.

To be fair, when the markets opened they were 50:50.
 
badusername said:
Gonna assume it's living in bubble. I, and everyone else I know, are going to vote yes. But the no voice is overwhelming in all forms of the media and other areas of society I have little exposure to.

To be fair, when the markets opened they were 50:50.
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No referendum has ever been successful unless both sides of politics support it (the Libs are Voting no). Plus there is the fact that Aussies are in general heaps racist.

It's got none of getting up.
 
iluvparis said:
No referendum has ever been successful unless both sides of politics support it (the Libs are Voting no). Plus there is the fact that Aussies are in general heaps racist.

It's got none of getting up.
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Sadly, I completely agree with you.
 
ep2018 said:

Seems good odds for the yes result in a vote that is destined to be very close. unless a whole heap of people right and left leaning who I know in real life in WA are lying about their intentions to vote, the yes vote will make a fight of it.
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The problem is because you need a majority of states to get up to the yes vote probably needs to be well clear for the referendum to succeed. That just isn’t happening
 

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ep2018 said:

Seems good odds for the yes result in a vote that is destined to be very close. unless a whole heap of people right and left leaning who I know in real life in WA are lying about their intentions to vote, the yes vote will make a fight of it.
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Referendums without bipartisan support are 0/36 in Aus. No is currently leading by ~14% and has increased it's % every month for the past 12 months. No is leading in 5/6 states. It would take a polling error triple that of the 2019 election just to get to parity.

Think this one will take more than the vibe for Yes to get up.

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ep2018 said:

Seems good odds for the yes result in a vote that is destined to be very close. unless a whole heap of people right and left leaning who I know in real life in WA are lying about their intentions to vote, the yes vote will make a fight of it.
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Agree.

I still don't think it will get up but if you can get $4.90 now and trade later - I think it's very likely to shorten. The Yes campaign have a much bigger budget and as that starts to get spent the polls should move a little bit.
 
kickazz said:
Agree.

I still don't think it will get up but if you can get $4.90 now and trade later - I think it's very likely to shorten. The Yes campaign have a much bigger budget and as that starts to get spent the polls should move a little bit.
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Despite being likely to lose $5.65 was overs and $4.75 probably still is. Yes have a 15mill war chest and have had there best week in the past 6 mths. The polls will lag but it will tighten more.

Yes: Langton comments hurt them last week but good weekend with the rallys and new adds are a better use of marketing budget.

No: 95% of Price at Press Club was solid but ruined that with the "colonialism has had no negative impact" comment. Mundine on Insiders a train wreck and threw some disunity into the mix with his support of treaties.


With the $ the Yes campaign have no surprise to see it tighten into the $3 / $3.50 range but unlikely to win
 
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Betfair has Trump $2.56, Biden $3.30. Trump racing away to a massive lead against the extremely unpopular Biden who just hit a new all time low approval rating. Multiple polls from multiple polling groups over the past month have Trump with a lead of 6-10% nationally and with similar leads in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia and Arizona. Don't know that the markets have realised this yet, as Trump is still over $2 to win, but I also don't think Biden is a bad bet at this point either. Digging into the polls, Biden's only getting about 70% of Democrats supporting him, compared to Trump's 90+. I believe in the end most of these Democrats will come home on election day, and will start showing up once Trump gets more airtime once he seals the GOP nomination, which will naturally close the gap. However a Harvard Poll which showed Trump with a 10 point lead nationally also took a gun to the head, Biden or Trump pick one poll and Trump led that 53-47.
 
maskmcgee said:
Betfair has Trump $2.56, Biden $3.30. Trump racing away to a massive lead against the extremely unpopular Biden who just hit a new all time low approval rating. Multiple polls from multiple polling groups over the past month have Trump with a lead of 6-10% nationally and with similar leads in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia and Arizona. Don't know that the markets have realised this yet, as Trump is still over $2 to win, but I also don't think Biden is a bad bet at this point either. Digging into the polls, Biden's only getting about 70% of Democrats supporting him, compared to Trump's 90+. I believe in the end most of these Democrats will come home on election day, and will start showing up once Trump gets more airtime once he seals the GOP nomination, which will naturally close the gap. However a Harvard Poll which showed Trump with a 10 point lead nationally also took a gun to the head, Biden or Trump pick one poll and Trump led that 53-47.
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The risk is that other states may rule Trump ineligible to stand after the Colorado decision. That state is irrelevant in terms of the broader race, but a possible precedent for others to follow.
 
maskmcgee said:
Betfair has Trump $2.56, Biden $3.30. Trump racing away to a massive lead against the extremely unpopular Biden who just hit a new all time low approval rating. Multiple polls from multiple polling groups over the past month have Trump with a lead of 6-10% nationally and with similar leads in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia and Arizona. Don't know that the markets have realised this yet, as Trump is still over $2 to win, but I also don't think Biden is a bad bet at this point either. Digging into the polls, Biden's only getting about 70% of Democrats supporting him, compared to Trump's 90+. I believe in the end most of these Democrats will come home on election day, and will start showing up once Trump gets more airtime once he seals the GOP nomination, which will naturally close the gap. However a Harvard Poll which showed Trump with a 10 point lead nationally also took a gun to the head, Biden or Trump pick one poll and Trump led that 53-47.
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Dems are not voting for Biden, they are voting against Trump so will hold on party lines. Any states blocking Trump like Colorado irrelevant as Repub run supreme court overturns
 
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