Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[janty]

How much does a club pay for a bloke who’s never kicked 40 goals in a season and never played more than 15 games in a season …

And turns 26 this year. Reminds me of the constant discussion about Taberner coming good for Freo year are year.

 

[fnerd]

Another tactical and inspirational coaching Masterclass from Mitchell today.
surely time to hear from Cornes and Ralphy again on how much Mitchell’s a “genius” to keep the dingley faithful on side?

Can “football genius” Sam Mitchell enhance list you'd “probably least like to have”?

Kane Cornes could not have been more impressed following a lengthy chat with the Hawthorn coach.

www.sen.com.au

 

[sr36]

No.

Midfielders don't get traded for top draft picks unless they're unquestionably elite. OR if they're a prototypical size (think a Cripps/Bont type of tall and big bodied mid).

A late first rounder/end of 1st priority pick maybe, if they play themselves into significantly better form during the second half of this season compared to what they've shown so far (obviously more about Newcombe there than Day who hasn't been playing).

Problem is, any team that needs a midfielder and has a first round pick like that is probably going to prefer to take an 18 year old kid with a higher ceiling. 'Potential' is an addictive drug. We know who Newcombe and Day are at this point.

All moot though; no chance Hawthorn trades them.

I wasn't suggesting trading them. More what their value would be.

 

[SSSSSS]

We've improved this year

 

[Chadwiko]

I wasn't suggesting trading them. More what their value would be.

Midfielders like them are not rare in the AFL. There's not a lot of intrinsic value.

 

[Yoda_]

very poor today. complete lack of defensive pressure

Bit of chatter on the Bombers board about Massimo. The obvious AFL trait is his kicking but the more educated on our board were somewhat ok he left as his unaccountability often left others in the back 6 badly exposed.



tl'dr, hes a defensive liability

 

[Chadwiko]

We've improved this year

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What was your ladder position at the same point of the season last year?

 

[SSSSSS]

I wasn't suggesting trading them. More what their value would be.

I could see the Crows offering a top 10 pick for Day. SA boy and they are desperate for quality mids with a high ceiling which he is.

Like Chad said it's moot though. There is no way we'd trade either of them. We need more talent on the list not less (or have it going sideways).

 

[The Cryptkeeper]

How much does a club pay for a bloke who’s never kicked 40 goals in a season and never played more than 15 games in a season …

Lewis is a wonderful player. If we trade him we are lost as a club. He’s exactly the sort of player we need as part of our future, not recycled flops and the continued drafting of short people.

 

[SSSSSS]

What was your ladder position at the same point of the season last year?

Not sure. I think we were 1-6 though. Would have been bottom 2 if not bottom?

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Lacked reward for effort today should be judged on when they play the teams around them.

 

[rye]

They can't make up their mind. All the seniors out one year. Then the next top up with Gunstan, Chol and Ginni. This is now year 6 out of the finals and with all their early I think they're yet to find someone who has held value or risen to be worth a top 10 pick.

Watson still would and hopefully he succeeds as he'll be great to watch. Would Newcombe or Day get traded for a top 10 pick?

contracted day would get a pick between 8-12 if hawthorn were selling

im not as high on newcombe as some others are but he made the AA squad as a 22 year old. that would suggest he is quite highly rated by the wider afl community and i wouldnt be shocked if someone stumped up a top 10 pick for him

 

[Taper]

Sounds like Back One Out backed one out.

We did give up on results after we sacked bucks and played kids, but we were hoping for development rather than the slight difference in draft points between where we would have finished if the seniors had have played through injuries and waited until the end of year for their operations.

I remember watching Collingwood that year and it was clear as day they were stale, very similar to GWS in 2022.
Also, Collingwood had previously traded away their 2021 future first round pick to GWS.

 

[The Cryptkeeper]

contracted day would get a pick between 8-12 if hawthorn were selling

im not as high on newcombe as some others are but he made the AA squad as a 22 year old. that would suggest he is quite highly rated by the wider afl community and i wouldnt be shocked if someone stumped up a top 10 pick for him

Not on this season’s form (Newcombe that is) He’s been really poor. He’ll come good but there might be something going on behind the scenes as he just doesn’t look the same player.

Day is worth a high first round pick. He’s probably our best player.

 

[sr36]

Watson will be a gun I reckon, but it was the wrong pick.

Small forwards are like a luxury purchase. Nice to have, but not absolutely essential to a successful side. Most clubs only have one good one, and they're generally not taken in the first 5 picks.

Not to mention they already had Moore - A very good player in his own right - and had bought in Ginni that off-season, who's already proven he's capable of 40 goals a year.

Any of Sanders, Windsor, O'Sullivan, or Curtin would have been better selections for mine.

Particularly the last two. Hawthorn desperately need tall talent at both ends.

Even if Curtin & COS are 2-3 years off being AFL ready, that fits the Hawks rebuild timeline anyway.

Blues got it right taking the talls early in the piece, knowing they'd peak later on.

It means the list can grow together at commensurate rate, as the mids are always going to come along quicker than the KPP.

I don't really agree with you. Games changed. Clubs have gotten much better on the outside. Flankers and small forwards are why you Cats are giving this season a shake. Despite his height, even Jezza has become a flanker.

 

[rye]

Not on this season’s form. He’s been really poor. He’ll come good but there might be something going on behind the scenes as he just doesn’t look the same player.

agreed, but generally when teams trade for a young player they look at the upside of what theyve shown at their best. smith has been miles off it for almost 2 seasons now and would probably still attract a top 10 pick under contract.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

I remember watching Collingwood that year and it was clear as day they were stale, very similar to GWS in 2022.
Also, Collingwood had previously traded away their 2021 future first round pick to GWS.

Listening to Bucks on radio these days it's no wonder they were.

I don't think a coach has had his stock fall as much as him since being sacked.

Knows the game as much as anyone, but if you can't communicate and lead men (particularly young men) you can't coach.

 

[sr36]

I could see the Crows offering a top 10 pick for Day. SA boy and they are desperate for quality mids with a high ceiling which he is.

Like Chad said it's moot though. There is no way we'd trade either of them. We need more talent on the list not less (or have it going sideways).

I was commenting on where your younger players sit rather than suggesting a trade. You'd be hoping some had held or increased their draft value, but it's only your oldies Amon, Sicily and Frost who have really kicked on during this rebuild. Newcombe too obviously. The draftees not so much.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

I don't really agree with you. Games changed. Clubs have gotten much better on the outside. Flankers and small forwards are why you Cats are giving this season a shake. Despite his height, even Jezza has become a flanker.

Comparing the second shortest guy in the league in Watson to a 6'5 Jeremy Cameron isn't exactly apples to apples though is it?

The Cats didn't over invest in their smalls either.

Miers - Pick in the fifties

Stengle - Rookie pick, eventually a DFA

Close - Rookie pick

As good as those three are, if they didn't have Jezza, Hawk, & Ollie Henry taking the three best defenders, they're not going to be same players.

Miers is a unicorn too. Nobody has his mix of footskills and endurance as a small forward.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Huge disappointment, will take them years to rebuild and will get worse by the year.
Will be cap in hand for PP's in 2026, mark my words.

Signing Chol for four years, could have offered 2 and he'd have taken it.

Yep. You can tell Conman Sam learnt straight from the book of Clarko.

If the Hawks board has any sense Mitchell will be out before he gets the chance to butcher any handouts. The bloke cannot coach.

 

[Yoda_]

Yep. You can tell Conman Sam learnt straight from the book of Clarko.

If the Hawks board has any sense Mitchell will be out before he gets the chance to butcher any handouts. The bloke cannot coach.

does he lose credentials if Nathan Lovett - Murray gets his way and Jobe has his Brownlow reinstated too?

 

[Gavin Excell]

Hawks board signed off the gutting of the list approach
They simply have to back Mitchell in and stay the course

 

[The Cryptkeeper]

Hawks board signed off the gutting of the list approach
They simply have to back Mitchell in and stay the course

That’s sunk cost fallacy in my opinion.

 

[Stottzy]

Lacked reward for effort today should be judged on when they play the teams around them.

This is pretty accurate. Other than North, every team we've played is in the 8 (3 in the top 4) or just outside (Pies and Suns). I can see us getting a string of wins when we play sides around us.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

That’s sunk cost fallacy in my opinion.

Who's a better option though?

Clarko left such a trainwreck of a list that Sam has got another year minimum until the pressure comes IMO.

He's starting from beyond ground zero.