Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[SA HAWK]

This will turn into a curse if there is no discernible improvement in the next 2 years.

If we don't improve by the end of next year i would expect him to be moved on.

 

[Saab NLAW]

It's pretty hard to access elite talent these days without getting the #1 pick.

So many F&S, NGA, free agency compo and academy selections pushing picks back.

Hawks need to finish bottom 2

 

[SSSSSS]

Hawks need to finish bottom 2

And we'll still probably end up with pick 4 after Ashcroft gets nabbed by Brisbane and the AFL manufacture a 1st round compo for Zurhaar as a pseudo-PP.

These days it's really spoon or bust to get access to the absolute cream.

 

[sr36]

What a fascinatingly absurd method of valuing players.

There’s gonna be ups and downs along the way. We aren’t as good as we thought we were going into this season, but we equally aren’t as bad as the doomsdayers will have you believe.

Patience is a virtue.

It's pretty basic but if youve used pick 5 in the draft and haven't got a player worth pick 5 you've lost in terms of how you've used your recruiting chips.

Clubs rise through the draft when they get better than average value for thier recruiting chips. Eg. a 23 year old Clarry helped Melbourne rise as he had gone up in value and was worth more than the pick 4 the Dees paid for him. A much later pick like Gawn's value went through the roof Same with all clubs who rise through the draft - their draft picks have been used on players that have increased in value.

You don't rise very far unless some of your picks really improve in value and were great picks for where they were taken or for the really early ones at least hold their value. Lewis would be one for Hawthorn as would Newcombe. But with only one first round pick a year, you need to have more than that and you need some of your early ones to become elite.

 

[MisterMarcus]

Admittedly I'm an outsider so I don't see Hawthorn every week, but it seems their gamestyle is not suited to their skill/experience level.

They seem to me to have a plan of aggressively pushing up out of defence to get the run-and-carry through the centre. But then so many of their I50 entries are directionless long-bombs or scrubby hacks. Once it's turned over, they're all out of position and the opposition crucify them on the rebound. Sydney got goal after goal where they seemed to have free blokes everywhere in the forward line.

I get wanting to be attacking and have guys not go into their shells.....but it's very hard when the experience just isn't there.

 

[sr36]

Admittedly I'm an outsider so I don't see Hawthorn every week, but it seems their gamestyle is not suited to their skill/experience level.

They seem to me to have a plan of aggressively pushing up out of defence to get the run-and-carry through the centre. But then so many of their I50 entries are directionless long-bombs or scrubby hacks. Once it's turned over, they're all out of position and the opposition crucify them on the rebound. Sydney got goal after goal where they seemed to have free blokes everywhere in the forward line.

I get wanting to be attacking and have guys not go into their shells.....but it's very hard when the experience just isn't there.

I don't mind it. They haven't got the personnel for any style really, but quick transition is the only thing that gives their forwards a chance.

 

[kaiserchief13]

And we'll still probably end up with pick 4 after Ashcroft gets nabbed by Brisbane and the AFL manufacture a 1st round compo for Zurhaar as a pseudo-PP.

These days it's really spoon or bust to get access to the absolute cream.

It's why the draft needs an overhaul. Academy, FS and FA compensation has ruined it

 

[Kobe Gryant]

We've had an absolute mare of a season with the messaging that's come out of the club.

That comment.

+ the "no ceiling on the season" comment. *

+ leaders at the club talking about Finals. *

+ this idea that the club is done focussing on drafting and there has now been a shift in direction for recruitment (which has been mentiomed too many times by some posters).

That was all rather misplaced arrogance and a complete overrating of where we are as a club. The cold hard truth has now slapped us upside the head.

* it's fine having internal goals. But don't go mentioning them in public like that when they're extremely ambitious, especially given how poor the last several seasons have been. Talk is so cheap and those comments are proving to be rather embarrassing in hindsight.

That's almost Schwab esque

 

[The 747]

And we'll still probably end up with pick 4 after Ashcroft gets nabbed by Brisbane and the AFL manufacture a 1st round compo for Zurhaar as a pseudo-PP.

These days it's really spoon or bust to get access to the absolute cream.

Looking at draft pick numbers is not really a path to success.

Max Gawn was a second round pick, so was Tom Stewart (they have 10+ AA between them). For the Hawks, Will Day was pick 13. Jiath was a rookie. Sicily was a third round pick. Many very good AFL players were rookie picks.

 

[SA HAWK]

Hawks need to finish bottom 2

We have needed to finish bottm 2 for the last 4-5 years

 

[The 747]

We have needed to finish bottm 2 for the last 4-5 years

North have done that. Has it worked?

 

[sr36]

What a fascinatingly absurd method of valuing players.

There’s gonna be ups and downs along the way. We aren’t as good as we thought we were going into this season, but we equally aren’t as bad as the doomsdayers will have you believe.

Patience is a virtue.

It's pretty basic but if youvve used pick 5 in the draft and haven't got a player worth pick 5 you've lost in terms of how you've used your recruiting chips.

Clubs rise through the draft when they nail picks that have increased in value. Eg. a 23 year old Clarry helped Melbourne rise as he had gone up in value and was worth more than the pick 4 the Dees paid for him. Same with all clubs who ride trough the draft - there draft picks have been used on players that have increased in value.

 

[Chadwiko]

North have done that. Has it worked?

 

[peetoo]

Hawks need to finish bottom 2

Potentially could finish second bottom with 6-8 wins

 

[Trent the flight Steward]

Hawks just lack talent. There list has 0 a graders or with potential to be a graders. They are well coached, just don't have the cattle. Mitchell is treating he's players like himself. As a rookie Mitchell worked hard at he's game to be elite, the problem is he could find the footy always and had a good footy brain

 

[Red Bull]

Hawks just lack talent. There list has 0 a graders or with potential to be a graders. They are well coached, just don't have the cattle. Mitchell is treating he's players like himself. As a rookie Mitchell worked hard at he's game to be elite, the problem is he could find the footy always and had a good footy brain

 

[nelk boys]

Hawks just lack talent. There list has 0 a graders or with potential to be a graders. They are well coached, just don't have the cattle. Mitchell is treating he's players like himself. As a rookie Mitchell worked hard at he's game to be elite, the problem is he could find the footy always and had a good footy brain

So we don't have one player with the potential to be an A grader?

What's the criteria to this call?

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

I think taking Nick Watson was very much a "and day 1 of our rebuild is today" type move. A player they simply do not have a requirement for but was the most talented player so they took him. Blind Freddy could see the pick had to be a KPP back like Dan Curtin if they were looking at the makeup of the list but given they think they are early in the rebuild they are still going for best available.

Beyond this also, they went on a massive salary cap clearing spree and so far spent it on Karl Amon

10

Karl Amon

Age

28

Ht

181cm

Wt

71kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.6

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

6.8

4star

M

3.4

3star

T

2.6

4star

MG

294.5

4star

D

21.0

5star

K

15.0

5star

HB

6.0

3star

M

6.0

5star

T

2.0

3star

D

10.4

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

3.6

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

2.0

4star

MG

146.8

3star

. Jack Ginnivan, Mabior Chol

18

Mabior Chol

Age

27

Ht

200cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.5

2star

K

5.3

2star

HB

2.2

2star

M

2.3

2star

T

2.7

4star

G

0.8

4star

D

8.0

2star

K

6.0

2star

HB

2.0

1star

M

2.3

2star

T

2.3

3star

G

0.7

4star

D

9.2

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

2.4

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.8

4star

G

1.2

4star

and Lloyd Meek. They need to build on this as in reality they should have acres of free salary cap room. One of Perryman. Berry, McCluggage or Florent has to be a Hawk by the end of the year.

Beyond that all they can do is well hold on and hope they get this rebuild started

 

[The Cryptkeeper]

Hawks just lack talent. There list has 0 a graders or with potential to be a graders. They are well coached, just don't have the cattle. Mitchell is treating he's players like himself. As a rookie Mitchell worked hard at he's game to be elite, the problem is he could find the footy always and had a good footy brain

Ridiculous statement.

Yes we lack talent but Day and Sicily are certainly “A graders.”

 

[peetoo]

That's almost Schwab esque

11 of the 2008 premiership team were on the list when schwab said that. I hope you are right

Corrected

 

[peetoo]

I think taking Nick Watson was very much a "and day 1 of our rebuild is today" type move. A player they simply do not have a requirement for but was the most talented player so they took him. Blind Freddy could see the pick had to be a KPP back like Dan Curtin if they were looking at the makeup of the list but given they think they are early in the rebuild they are still going for best available.

Beyond this also, they went on a massive salary cap clearing spree and so far spent it on Karl Amon. Jack Ginnivan, Mabior Chol and Lloyd Meek. They need to build on this as in reality they should have acres of free salary cap room. One of Perryman. Berry, McCluggage or Florent has to be a Hawk by the end of the year.

Beyond that all they can do is well hold on and hope they get this rebuild started

Hawks took a kpf and a kpd in the Watson draft. They are quite raw though

Reports are there is still plenty of salary cap room

 

[jackenny]

I think taking Nick Watson was very much a "and day 1 of our rebuild is today" type move. A player they simply do not have a requirement for but was the most talented player so they took him. Blind Freddy could see the pick had to be a KPP back like Dan Curtin if they were looking at the makeup of the list but given they think they are early in the rebuild they are still going for best available.

Beyond this also, they went on a massive salary cap clearing spree and so far spent it on Karl Amon. Jack Ginnivan, Mabior Chol and Lloyd Meek. They need to build on this as in reality they should have acres of free salary cap room. One of Perryman. Berry, McCluggage or Florent has to be a Hawk by the end of the year.

Beyond that all they can do is well hold on and hope they get this rebuild started

Battle should be their #1 target over the trade/free agency period. Then they should grab either Jagga Smith (smooth moving inside midfielder) or Luke Trainor (best tall defender imo).

 

[SeanM]

As a Swans fan, we are not usually able to sustain that level of pressure for 4 quarters and we kicked some flukey goals. It felt like we were switched on today after losing to Richmond on the MCG a few weeks ago.

We are not a 80 point better side. It is just one of those days where things went our way early, we converted chances and kept momentum.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Battle should be their #1 target over the trade/free agency period. Then they should grab either Jagga Smith (smooth moving inside midfielder) or Luke Trainor (best tall defender imo).

Battle is a third tall, and we have enough of those. Still I wouldn't say no, but he's not the answer to our KPD issues.

If all three of FOS, Smillie and Smith are available at our pick then you can bet Smith would be the last choice - smallest of the three with no outstanding physical attributes (FOS is only marginally taller, but is quicker and can take a hanger). Both Smillie and FOS offer something we need. Smith essentially does not.

 

[TerryWallet]

And we'll still probably end up with pick 4 after Ashcroft gets nabbed by Brisbane and the AFL manufacture a 1st round compo for Zurhaar as a pseudo-PP.

These days it's really spoon or bust to get access to the absolute cream.

It might be advantageous for the Hawks to not be the bidder that bids up Zurhaar to 1st Round compo like they were with Ben McKay this year.

Classic shoot in foot move. It's a strange one to whinge about for a Hawthorn fan. Cost yourself.