Rumour Future of the club (Bevo, board, assistant coaches, football department)

[BEaston]

I've never placed much weight on expected score. Expected Score is effectively a long sequence of sliding door moments within a match.

As soon as you allow for the possibility that just one of those shots had turned out differently you have to concede that the rest of the match would then have played out differently. That's because what was a kick-in would now be a centre bounce instead. Or even a boundary throw-in.

And vice versa. After Bailey Smith failed to handle the ball cleanly in the frenetic third quarter of the 2021 grand final, if the Melbourne shot on goal a few seconds later had been a behind instead of a goal they might never have gone on their 16 goal surge. Instead we might have taken a safe kick-in, chipped it around the boundary line and ... well, who knows how it might have worked out.

So you can't validly add up the expected score from every shot in the match and then say "we should have won that by 4 points instead of losing by 17" (or whatever).

I'm not into Expected Score ladders either.

However accumulated expected score (the expected vs actual differential) might still be useful as a season-long measure. Over a whole season it's possible it will provide a rough guide to which sides have a problem with accuracy and which ones don't. I expect most sides would regress to the mean though.

Most of what you say is right.

It's not right that most sides would regress to the mean though. Like every data set, it will have a distribution around the mean. This will apply over whatever time period you want to set.

It definitely is a useful measure for the purpose you describe (bolded).

When looking vs another team within a game, or season though it's just a rough guide or estimation.

 

[TiAn_]

I’ll say one thing, I’d take the most frustrating periods of the Bev era a billion times over what North are into their fifth season of. 12 wins in 4 1/4 seasons! 12! We’ve had 52 wins in that period. Just try and imagine 12. And this far into being s**t they still have a team with gaping holes all over the place and hardly any young talent outside of the 23. Just horrible.

 

[TiAn_]

Our goalkicking appears to have improved.

Our three leading goal kickers have kicked 36.10. Can’t complain about that. If Jamarra starts tying his laces properly or whatever the problem is, we’ll be totally fine in that regard.

 

[geoffjennings79]

I’ll say one thing, I’d take the most frustrating periods of the Bev era a billion times over what North are into their fifth season of. 12 wins in 4 1/4 seasons! 12! We’ve had 52 wins in that period. Just try and imagine 12. And this far into being s**t they still have a team with gaping holes all over the place and hardly any young talent outside of the 23. Just horrible.

Agree. I hate to disappoint Leon, but North are down the list as far as my most hated clubs (would probably change if/when they are successful again though! ).
But a lot of that has been brought on themselves. Failing to stagger enforced retirements, even by 12 months, of Harvey, Petrie, etc, left a gaping leadership role - and some of those veterans were more productive than Ziebull who they than had to retain well beyond his use-by-date. Brady Rawlings list management since then has been deplorable, drafting almost exclusively young mids when talls were often an option, and the desperate attempts to lure Martin, Gaff, etc, but in the end settle for Polec, Logue, and some of the other cloggers in recent years that would usually find their way to VUWO.
And pushing a still-capable Goldstein forward or into the VFL when his replacements were inferior in form and ability. I get they needed to bring through some young rucks, but Goldstein was a mature body with some leadership, which they now have an even greater void.
I know clubs can turn it around quickly, but Clarkson may not be the saviour they were hoping for, and that list needs years to turn it around.
Anyway, not the best thread for it, I just keep an eye on some clubs more than others.

Currently a bit of a throwback to the late 1920s though, when we were usually the highest placed of the 3 new clubs, while the other 2 were anchored to the bottom of the ladder. (If only we could emulate their subsequent premiership success... ).

 

[TiAn_]

Agree. I hate to disappoint Leon, but North are down the list as far as my most hated clubs (would probably change if/when they are successful again though! ).
But a lot of that has been brought on themselves. Failing to stagger enforced retirements, even by 12 months, of Harvey, Petrie, etc, left a gaping leadership role - and some of those veterans were more productive than Ziebull who they than had to retain well beyond his use-by-date. Brady Rawlings list management since then has been deplorable, drafting almost exclusively young mids when talls were often an option, and the desperate attempts to lure Martin, Gaff, etc, but in the end settle for Polec, Logue, and some of the other cloggers in recent years that would usually find their way to VUWO.
And pushing a still-capable Goldstein forward or into the VFL when his replacements were inferior in form and ability. I get they needed to bring through some young rucks, but Goldstein was a mature body with some leadership, which they now have an even greater void.
I know clubs can turn it around quickly, but Clarkson may not be the saviour they were hoping for, and that list needs years to turn it around.
Anyway, not the best thread for it, I just keep an eye on some clubs more than others.

Currently a bit of a throwback to the late 1920s though, when we were usually the highest placed of the 3 new clubs, while the other 2 were anchored to the bottom of the ladder. (If only we could emulate their subsequent premiership success... ).

North are a head on pike reminder for every club that if you’re contemplating a full list tear down you will need to absolutely nail your draft and trading moves or you could be stuck at the bottom far longer than you’re anticipating.

I was glad to hear Beveridge say rebuilding is a myth the other week. In a sport like ours where you need 23 players and can’t just sign half of them in one off-season like overseas sports, it’s almost like buying a lottery ticket as a retirement strategy.

 

[geoffjennings79]

North are a head on pike reminder for every club that if you’re contemplating a full list tear down you will need to absolutely nail your draft and trading moves or you could be stuck at the bottom far longer than you’re anticipating.

Absolutely. But also the next level down challenge from us of enticing players from other clubs.
We (allegedly/anecdotally) struggle to compete for want-away players against the allure (and/or underhand $$$) of Geelong, Collingwood, etc. Even if offering more $$$.

Then there is the North situation where they have to offer a Logue or Polec contracts well beyond the perceived player's value/ability, or trumpet a Stephenson as some sort of successful recruitment.

Different landscape, but the late 70s, late 80s and a few instances even in the McCartney years often saw us as the destination where cast off's careers went to die.

We can't afford to get to the current North level ever again, as it would be a vicious cycle to get out of. Even if financially we're now stable (although there's the pending payout/appeal) we need to enhance our appeal for desirable players on the market, so we can compete for their services on a (somewhat) level playing field.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

I’ll say one thing, I’d take the most frustrating periods of the Bev era a billion times over what North are into their fifth season of. 12 wins in 4 1/4 seasons! 12! We’ve had 52 wins in that period. Just try and imagine 12. And this far into being s**t they still have a team with gaping holes all over the place and hardly any young talent outside of the 23. Just horrible.

The good ole days of being a doggies supporter...most excitement was - who are we drafting with our low picks, and watching the kids play/develop...

 

[Scott Tracy]

Don't want to look too far ahead but I realised today that I never really had a decent look at our fixture for this year.
I think before our round 15 bye there isn't any reason why we shouldn't be in the 8. Even sneaking into 3rd or 4th IF we have some upsets.
But our run home post the round 15 bye is a grim sight at this current time. We start with North which you think should be fine. But then we have:

Port at Adelaide
Carlton at Marvel
Geelong in Geelong
Sydney at the SCG
Melbourne at Marvel
Adelaide in Adelaide
North at Marvel
Giants in Ballarat

Six of those sides are currently in the eight. At this stage you'd expect to be lucky to go 3-5.
I'm all for keeping Bevo until the end of the season as I think Lade/Spangher will be pretty useless at the top job. But if theres anytime he'll be sacked during the season, theres a decent chance it could be in that period of games.

Still don't want to look too far ahead as things could change, but definitely looking like we will need to pull some upsets if we want any shot at finals.

If we make finals, he needs to win one for him to be any chance at coaching next year

 

[Anja_Nees]

Our three leading goal kickers have kicked 36.10. Can’t complain about that. If Jamarra starts tying his laces properly or whatever the problem is, we’ll be totally fine in that regard.

Yeah a few classic howlers in a few games masked the progress a bit I think.

 

[adogsfan5]

Let’s see where things sit after this week… another poor showing after a great performance will frustrate a lot of people even more.

 

[Anja_Nees]

Let’s see where things sit after this week… another poor showing after a great performance will frustrate a lot of people even more.

Yes there’s no point having our form yo-yo. I think Freo are ripe for the picking after their implosion on the weekend, but they’ve been competitive or good most weeks.

A tight contest is fine but it would be deflating if they belted us and probably put us back where we were last week in terms of criticism.

 

[Libbaaaa]

Freo hasn't kicked over 70 points since beating North in round 2, absolutely nothing to fear from them once the initial 5-10 min breathing fire patch fades after first bounce.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

North are a head on pike reminder for every club that if you’re contemplating a full list tear down you will need to absolutely nail your draft and trading moves or you could be stuck at the bottom far longer than you’re anticipating.

I was glad to hear Beveridge say rebuilding is a myth the other week. In a sport like ours where you need 23 players and can’t just sign half of them in one off-season like overseas sports, it’s almost like buying a lottery ticket as a retirement strategy.

And we simply don't have the pull of bigger clubs. Jade Gresham was interviewed after the win vs. Adelaide and asked about Anzac Day. Was quite open about the appeal for playing like clubs like Essendon to play in those matches. Bobby Hill, a Norm Smith medallist, left GWS after two trade requests ... one to Essendon, one to Collingwood. The list goes on.

North thought they'd dig themselves out of this rebound because they'd land a top-10 player in the league with the salary cap money to make that player the richest in the league. They had money in front of 2017-18 Andrew Gaff, Dusty Martin and Josh Kelly over recent years with $1.5 million p/y deals or whatever. Irrespective of whether that's the right move or value for money, they're still good players, and they didn't manage to land any of them.

 

[stefoid]

Our three leading goal kickers have kicked 36.10. Can’t complain about that. If Jamarra starts tying his laces properly or whatever the problem is, we’ll be totally fine in that regard.

hes kicking with his eyes open

 

[hutchy31]

Don't want to look too far ahead but I realised today that I never really had a decent look at our fixture for this year.
I think before our round 15 bye there isn't any reason why we shouldn't be in the 8. Even sneaking into 3rd or 4th IF we have some upsets.
But our run home post the round 15 bye is a grim sight at this current time. We start with North which you think should be fine. But then we have:

Port at Adelaide
Carlton at Marvel
Geelong in Geelong
Sydney at the SCG
Melbourne at Marvel
Adelaide in Adelaide
North at Marvel
Giants in Ballarat

Six of those sides are currently in the eight. At this stage you'd expect to be lucky to go 3-5.
I'm all for keeping Bevo until the end of the season as I think Lade/Spangher will be pretty useless at the top job. But if theres anytime he'll be sacked during the season, theres a decent chance it could be in that period of games.

Still don't want to look too far ahead as things could change, but definitely looking like we will need to pull some upsets if we want any shot at finals.

If we make finals, he needs to win one for him to be any chance at coaching next year

That’s not an easy run home, but I’m not sure I share your confidence about our run into the bye. After Freo we have hawks and tigers, which is benign, but then it’s giants/swans/pies/lions/freo. If we’re in the eight after that we’ll probably have gone 5-3 at worst in that eight game stretch.

Given the post-bye fixture I think the work needs to be done in terms of win/loss in the next two months. Any loss in the next three weeks would be pretty harmful, as would a run of 2-3 losses in a row during the latter part of the pre-bye fixture.

 

[Scott Tracy]

That’s not an easy run home, but I’m not sure I share your confidence about our run into the bye. After Freo we have hawks and tigers, which is benign, but then it’s giants/swans/pies/lions/freo. If we’re in the eight after that we’ll probably have gone 5-3 at worst in that eight game stretch.

Given the post-bye fixture I think the work needs to be done in terms of win/loss in the next two months. Any loss in the next three weeks would be pretty harmful, as would a run of 2-3 losses in a row during the latter part of the pre-bye fixture.

I'm quite confident that if we play our best which is a big IF. That we can knock over Sydney and Brisbane at Marvel. Giants and Pies i'm not so optimistic about.

 

[F6Typhoon]

hes kicking with his eyes open

But how’s his putting?

 

[dogwatch]

And we simply don't have the pull of bigger clubs. Jade Gresham was interviewed after the win vs. Adelaide and asked about Anzac Day. Was quite open about the appeal for playing like clubs like Essendon to play in those matches. Bobby Hill, a Norm Smith medallist, left GWS after two trade requests ... one to Essendon, one to Collingwood. The list goes on.

...

So true. This is a good example of the big clubs v small clubs lockout that I posted on earlier.

As long as Collingwood and Essendon have a monopoly on the ANZAC Day clash they'll continue to reap big rewards in gate revenue, sponsorships, membership growth and - importantly - pulling players from other clubs. They can probably even get players at a small discount in salary if they think they will get to play in these sorts of blockbusters. Defenders of the current arrangements may argue "but it's only one H&A game each year" but it has turned into an iconic event, much bigger than just a H&A match. Ess v Coll regularly get close to 90,000 at this game.

What they need to do is schedule the highest placed Vic club from the previous season against the winner of the previous year's ANZAC Day match (ie a challenge match). That gives every Vic club a shot at it over time. It also gives an incentive/reward for finishing as high up the ladder as you can even if you don't get to win the flag. It would be an exciting and prestigious contest within a contest, something the AFL decidedly lacks (compare that to EPL which also has League Cup and FA Cup silverware).

Of course it's exceedingly unlikely the AFL will ever do such a thing. For a start it requires vision, daring and genuine commitment to equal opportunity. Secondly the two clubs who currently have exclusive rights - and rivers of gold - will fight it for all they're worth. Thirdly, and perhaps most tellingly, the networks, advertisers and bean counters will fight it for all they're worth ... and they're worth a lot!!

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

Let’s see where things sit after this week… another poor showing after a great performance will frustrate a lot of people even more.

So will a good performance

 

[geoffjennings79]

...requires vision, daring and genuine commitment to equal opportunity.

VFL almost showed these with the expansion for the 1925 season (but still nobbled us by preventing some of our recruits who'd crossed from the VFL to VFA from playing VFL again when we were admittted).

AFL doesn't know what any of your words that I quoted mean.
The word 'integrity' has also never been a consideration by any AFL senior management, for any aspect of the game.

I asked ChatGPT to show me the opposite of integrity.
It displayed photos of Demetriou, McLachlan, Dillon and Livingstone.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

So true. This is a good example of the big clubs v small clubs lockout that I posted on earlier.

As long as Collingwood and Essendon have a monopoly on the ANZAC Day clash they'll continue to reap big rewards in gate revenue, sponsorships, membership growth and - importantly - pulling players from other clubs. They can probably even get players at a small discount in salary if they think they will get to play in these sorts of blockbusters. Defenders of the current arrangements may argue "but it's only one H&A game each year" but it has turned into an iconic event, much bigger than just a H&A match. Ess v Coll regularly get close to 90,000 at this game.

What they need to do is schedule the highest placed Vic club from the previous season against the winner of the previous year's ANZAC Day match (ie a challenge match). That gives every Vic club a shot at it over time. It also gives an incentive/reward for finishing as high up the ladder as you can even if you don't get to win the flag. It would be an exciting and prestigious contest within a contest, something the AFL decidedly lacks (compare that to EPL which also has League Cup and FA Cup silverware).

Of course it's exceedingly unlikely the AFL will ever do such a thing. For a start it requires vision, daring and genuine commitment to equal opportunity. Secondly the two clubs who currently have exclusive rights - and rivers of gold - will fight it for all they're worth. Thirdly, and perhaps most tellingly, the networks, advertisers and bean counters will fight it for all they're worth ... and they're worth a lot!!

Yes agree something similar, the pies and bombers have it every second season and the highest place vic team plays either pies or bombers every second season.

Example

2024 Pies v Bombers
2025 Pies v highest placed Vic team from 2024
2026 Pies v Bombers
2027 Bombers v highest placed Vic team from 2026

That is pretty fair given the bombers or pies would every 2 out of 3 seasons and other Vic clubs get a chance every second season.

 

[RedWhite&Blue]

Don't know if this is the right thread but...
Why isn't Bevo being hailed as a genius for dropping Dale and turning him back into an All-Australian!?

 

[dogwatch]

Yes agree something similar, the pies and bombers have it every second season and the highest place vic team plays either pies or bombers every second season.

Example

2024 Pies v Bombers
2025 Pies v highest placed Vic team from 2024
2026 Pies v Bombers
2027 Bombers v highest placed Vic team from 2026

That is pretty fair given the bombers or pies would every 2 out of 3 seasons and other Vic clubs get a chance every second season.

You're waaaay too soft on them OD! They've been handed a dream run and mountains of loot and PR for 30 friggin years!!
My example:

2024 Pies def Bombers, Geelong finish highest Vic team.
2025 Pies v Geelong (Geelong wins), Dogs finish highest Vic team
2026 Geelong vs Dogs (Dogs win) Blues finish highest Vic team
2027 Dogs v Blues (Dogs win) Blues finish highest Vic team again
2028 Dogs v Blues again ... and so on.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

You're waaaay too soft on them OD! They've been handed a dream run and mountains of loot and PR for 30 friggin years!!
My example:

2024 Pies def Bombers, Geelong finish highest Vic team.
2025 Pies v Geelong (Geelong wins), Dogs finish highest Vic team
2026 Geelong vs Dogs (Dogs win) Blues finish highest Vic team
2027 Dogs v Blues (Dogs win) Blues finish highest Vic team again
2028 Dogs v Blues again ... and so on.

Maybe DW but it will not be easy to get any concessions and this would be reasonable negotiation unless the league can just take it off them.

 

[JTCWBFC]

Don't know if this is the right thread but...
Why isn't Bevo being hailed as a genius for dropping Dale and turning him back into an All-Australian!?

Thought this

They were sucking Macrae off on the couch when he did this with Crisp