Rumour Future of the club (Bevo, board, assistant coaches, football department)

[synchrodogcal]

Quite a few posters calling for consistency of effort, which is obviously spot on and it was good to see this acknowledged in the pre game interview when Bevo said that supporters want honesty, integrity and grit from the team, but he admitted we’ve been unable to bring that consistently. At the very least it shows awareness and intent from the coach.

 

[Fossie 32]

Quite a few posters calling for consistency of effort, which is obviously spot on and it was good to see this acknowledged in the pre game interview when Bevo said that supporters want honesty, integrity and grit from the team, but he admitted we’ve been unable to bring that consistently. At the very least it shows awareness and intent from the coach.

Great to hear he said that! Certainly the guys 'Giving their very best' is a big thing even if we aren't very successful.

 

[RangaRed]

He’s making some great moves at the moment, too little too late though and will probably revert to standard in the next few games with his full team back but positive signs with the magnets he’s swinging lately.

We all know this system doesn’t cut it against good sides and when we’ve had it on our terms were dominate against s**t teams. This year is more of the same there, we got carried by two of the best games you’ll see from our stars against Geelong but when teams have a good crack at us we completely break down. This team can play great footy when we’re under the pump and can play on emotion, as we know from the last 10 years that only works for short bursts and isn’t sustainable.

There has been some positive changes though, I can’t see us ever being a sustainably good side with this coach BUT we actually have the backline, forward line and more importantly depth this season that we genuinely could contend if we can scrape enough wins out of a hard draw to give ourselves a shot at the end of the year. It’s not the way to go about it but it’s something at least

If you look at the key stats this year we actually match up remarkably well with the best few teams this year, a few of the interesting ones I’ve found

Were the number 1 contested marking team in the league, the talls is working as a point of difference for us

We’re now very close to the best intercept marking team, top 3 just .9 per game off the top. This is a MASSIVE turnaround from being dead last most seasons

Were top 4 for marks inside 50, more interestingly were basically even first with GWS for marks inside 50 per inside 50. For all the s**t talking about our forward line it’s functioning very well, but our overall inside 50s are down a touch. Clearly there’s still a lack of connection with the eye test but it’s a massive improvement and the dire calls about how the talls don’t work are over the top. On a similiar note were the number one team in footy for goals per inside 50, and top 3 for tackles in f50.

Were the 4th most accurate team in the league, even before this week we were top 6.

The forward line is clicking.

Now these are just stats and I think as I said before, more than most teams were much worse against good teams and much better against bad teams, even more than normal so maybe these stats are tailored to our big wins covering the cracks. But there’s some positive shifts for sure

 

[dergert]

What other clubs could potentially move their coaches on this year?

I had a quick scan and can only see West Coast. The rest have re-signed them recently or are tied up for a while

 

[BallaratBulldog]

What other clubs could potentially move their coaches on this year?

I had a quick scan and can only see West Coast. The rest have re-signed them recently or are tied up for a while

Was going to say Adelaide but has actually recently signed to 2026.
Simpson has contract to end of 2025.

Rest are safe I think.

 

[dergert]

Was going to say Adelaide but has actually recently signed to 2026.
Simpson has contract to end of 2025.

Rest are safe I think.

Yeah the lower sides have either re-signed them or they're recent appointments.

It's good for us. If we do look for a new coach we may have first dibs.

 

[VogonProsthetnic]

Yeah the lower sides have either re-signed them or they're recent appointments.

It's good for us. If we do look for a new coach we may have first dibs.

People will be crawling over broken glass to coach this group.

 

[Doggy]

People will be crawling over broken glass to coach this group.

That's how we ended up with Spangher

 

[BallaratBulldog]

That's how we ended up with Spangher

I thought that was more the money spent elsewhere (Bevo) limiting us. Was supposed to be a developer role.

 

[BEaston]

I actually shudder to think how different things might have been if we kicked straight the last few years. Now it seems we might be turning the corner.

I still don’t think we would have gone deep in finals but the number of close losses we’ve had where we just didn’t kick straight…

It's been our achilles heel for many years. We consistently have won games on Expected Score that we end up losing.
For the most part we've performed above average in other areas of the game.

 

[Anja_Nees]

It's been our achilles heel for many years. We consistently have won games on Expected Score that we end up losing.
For the most part we've performed above average in other areas of the game.

It was a problem going back as far as 2016. Even in the prelim and grand final we missed plenty of gettable opportunities but control of possession gave us enough scoring opportunities to win so no one really cared.

Well I sure as hell cared late in the third quarter of the GF when he had had control of the game but kicked 2.6 for the quarter but I forgot pretty fast.

 

[glenashley]

It's been our achilles heel for many years. We consistently have won games on Expected Score that we end up losing.
For the most part we've performed above average in other areas of the game.

I think we lost about half a dozen games by less than 2 goals last year, most were wins on X score.

It was in theory, a top 4 year gone begging due to poor conversion.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I think we lost about half a dozen games by less than 2 goals last year, most were wins on X score.

It was in theory, a top 4 year gone begging due to poor conversion.

The "expected wins" and "expected losses" are a load of rubbish though. I'm a big fan of expected score as a general guide to see how good both teams are at generating quality shots, and it's arguably a better guide about how the result of one game represents how well the team actually played (especially as you have no control over the opposition's goalkicking accuracy) but translating that into theoretical wins and losses is rubbish. Teams adjust their games to the scoreboard as it is. The fact that we were ahead on the expected score but behind in real life score in the last quarter against Essendon and dropped our heads is proof of that. And if we're inventing an alternate universe where we're adjusting the goalkicking accuracy, which not adjust the distribution of results over all games? (ie consider a big win and a narrow loss a better overall result than two narrow wins). Also keep in mind that the "expected points" is just a mathematical formula that can have differences of interpretation leading to two different teams winning. How do you treat the "expected score" of a shot on goal that gets marked on the line by a teammate, for example? It's two shots but one passage of play. If two people treated that differently you can have two different teams "winning" which is preposterous.

Use expected percentage, sure. Determine how much better one team was than the other with expected score, fine. But the idea that there's an expected "ladder" is ridiculous.

 

[BEaston]

The "expected wins" and "expected losses" are a load of rubbish though. I'm a big fan of expected score as a general guide to see how good both teams are at generating quality shots, and it's arguably a better guide about how the result of one game represents how well the team actually played (especially as you have no control over the opposition's goalkicking accuracy) but translating that into theoretical wins and losses is rubbish. Teams adjust their games to the scoreboard as it is. The fact that we were ahead on the expected score but behind in real life score in the last quarter against Essendon and dropped our heads is proof of that. And if we're inventing an alternate universe where we're adjusting the goalkicking accuracy, which not adjust the distribution of results over all games? (ie consider a big win and a narrow loss a better overall result than two narrow wins). Also keep in mind that the "expected points" is just a mathematical formula that can have differences of interpretation leading to two different teams winning. How do you treat the "expected score" of a shot on goal that gets marked on the line by a teammate, for example? It's two shots but one passage of play. If two people treated that differently you can have two different teams "winning" which is preposterous.

Use expected percentage, sure. Determine how much better one team was than the other with expected score, fine. But the idea that there's an expected "ladder" is ridiculous.

Think you're taking it a bit too seriously.

The expected score ladder is a general guide in exactly the same way the expected score for an individual game is, just extrapolated.

To answer your question about interpretation though, "no score" will always make up some percentage of the expected score of a shot on goal. So the expected score of the shot on goal which is marked on the line, and the subsequent shot on goal both count towards the total expected score. I'm not sure where you're thinking interpretation comes into it here.

 

[dogwatch]

I've never placed much weight on expected score. Expected Score is effectively a long sequence of sliding door moments within a match.

As soon as you allow for the possibility that just one of those shots had turned out differently you have to concede that the rest of the match would then have played out differently. That's because what was a kick-in would now be a centre bounce instead. Or even a boundary throw-in.

And vice versa. After Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

failed to handle the ball cleanly in the frenetic third quarter of the 2021 grand final, if the Melbourne shot on goal a few seconds later had been a behind instead of a goal they might never have gone on their 16 goal surge. Instead we might have taken a safe kick-in, chipped it around the boundary line and ... well, who knows how it might have worked out.

So you can't validly add up the expected score from every shot in the match and then say "we should have won that by 4 points instead of losing by 17" (or whatever).

I'm not into Expected Score ladders either.

However accumulated expected score (the expected vs actual differential) might still be useful as a season-long measure. Over a whole season it's possible it will provide a rough guide to which sides have a problem with accuracy and which ones don't. I expect most sides would regress to the mean though.

 

[Anja_Nees]

I think with the way the season is panning out our losses have some context. Geelong are undefeated and Essendon and Melbourne are 4-2. The Essendon loss was diabolical but they aren’t terrible.

Meanwhile West Coast are not as bad as we thought and Gold Coast are 3-2.

We are probably mid-table atm but our draw has been harder than it looked.

Separately, only three clubs have a higher percentage, and percentage is often a pretty good indicator.

A lot of the season left but some were calling us bottom four a week back.

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

I think with the way the season is panning out our losses have some context. Geelong are undefeated and Essendon and Melbourne are 4-2. The Essendon loss was diabolical but they aren’t terrible.

Meanwhile West Coast are not as bad as we thought and Gold Coast are 3-2.

We are probably mid-table atm but our draw has been harder than it looked.

Separately, only three clubs have a higher percentage, and percentage is often a pretty good indicator.

A lot of the season left but some were calling us bottom four a week back.

5 more points would have given us a win over the Cats and a respectable 4 - 2 win loss ratio.

 

[Some Idiot]

Can't really tell where we're at right now.
Gold Coast have been impressive, so our win against them was a good one to have. West Coast look to be turning the corner, so our "expected" big win is starting to look solid in context. Narrow loss to an undefeated Geelong looks okay on paper.
Two disappointing losses to Melbourne and Essendon, but both of those teams are travelling pretty well at the moment.

 

[Bulldog rick]

We are going ok

 

[ScragCity]

I expect most sides would regress to the mean though.

Over what time period? Last year we finished one and a half standard deviations below the league mean for the season. The league mean is approximately a difference of 0 between expected and actual, which is the whole point of it. If that ever changes it will be an indicator that expected score should be recalibrated.

 

[Bulldogs85]

This was a few days ago

 

[Next Waiting]

Over what time period? Last year we finished one and a half standard deviations below the league mean for the season. The league mean is approximately a difference of 0 between expected and actual, which is the whole point of it. If that ever changes it will be an indicator that expected score should be recalibrated.

....

 

[Anja_Nees]

This was a few days ago

Hysteria is about right.

Obviously if we were to implode he will get sacked but the furore at round five was a joke. Granted if it had been followed by being belted by St Kilda the jungle drums would start beating but the opposite happened.

We are currently looking like a mid table side that is in the mix for finals, but with the fourth highest percentage.

Win a few games we are not expected to and we might yet push for top four or at least a home final. Lose a few to crap opposition and we might plunge. Until one of those things happens we should all be watching it unfold.

 

[Anja_Nees]

Can't really tell where we're at right now.
Gold Coast have been impressive, so our win against them was a good one to have. West Coast look to be turning the corner, so our "expected" big win is starting to look solid in context. Narrow loss to an undefeated Geelong looks okay on paper.
Two disappointing losses to Melbourne and Essendon, but both of those teams are travelling pretty well at the moment.

Right now Essendon and Melbourne are playing a bit better than us. The Essendon one was bad because we looked timid and haven’t looked timid in the other games.

I think they’ll fall away like they always do but they are in form for now.

Smashing St Kilda, GC and WC and taking it up to Geelong suggests we’re going ok. We obviously want to dominate but we are not collapsing like many thought.

The other thing is that people were saying nothing has changed when obviously they’ve made a lot of effort to change.

Gallagher, Sanders, Bramble, Darcy, West and Buku were either not on the list or barely sighted last year but have been fixtures. Our goalkicking appears to have improved. Our defensive effort has mostly been good.

 

[4Seasons]

Hysteria is about right.

Obviously if we were to implode he will get sacked but the furore at round five was a joke. Granted if it had been followed by being belted by St Kilda the jungle drums would start beating but the opposite happened.

We are currently looking like a mid table side that is in the mix for finals, but with the fourth highest percentage.

Win a few games we are not expected to and we might yet push for top four or at least a home final. Lose a few to crap opposition and we might plunge. Until one of those things happens we should all be watching it unfold.

The implosions were mostly from people who love the sound of their own voice.
We can still win the flag this year, there's still a long way to go.