Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[JustEatIt]

If you guys were willing to bet who will turn out to be a better player Lalor or Holmes. Who would you pick?

 

[tiger_tough]

The 2020 grand final sure was sweet though

 

[CatToTheFuture]

If you guys were willing to bet who will turn out to be a better player Lalor or Holmes. Who would you pick?

Very hard to say on limited time that Lalor has had but I do really like him. I'd guess Lalor based on how immediately he's slotted into AFL versus Holmes slow burn, but would be ecstatic to be wrong

 

[CatToTheFuture]

The 2020 grand final sure was sweet though

That first quarter was just wild

 

[JustEatIt]

Very hard to say on limited time that Lalor has had but I do really like him. I'd guess Lalor based on how immediately he's slotted into AFL versus Holmes slow burn, but would be ecstatic to be wrong

Yes this to me is the difference between the two of our clubs rebuilds imo.

Unless I’m incorrect I believe Holmes is your current best “youth” player.

For us it’s Lalor atm. But then we have Smillie who was rated about equal as Lalor coming into the draft and then we have 3 top 5 picks coming over two years. That could also be similar. Plus H Reid as a possible trade target.

Just from pure probability I think we’ll have multiple players that are better than your best players later on. That to me is what I think makes us have better future. But who knows, it’s a gamble.

 

[Footy Smarts]

If you guys were willing to bet who will turn out to be a better player Lalor or Holmes. Who would you pick?

You'd always take the proven star 22 year old over the highly talented draftee because they're so much more certain.

Something weird needs to happen for Holmes not to be a top 50 player for a long time.

Lalor looks a super talent but he's still probably less than 50% chance to get to that level and plenty of super talents have fallen away for various reasons. He could be the next Bont but he could be the next Stringer or O'Meara.

 

[JustEatIt]

You'd always take the proven star 22 year old over the highly talented draftee because they're so much more certain.

Something weird needs to happen for Holmes not to be a top 50 player for a long time.

Lalor looks a super talent but he's still probably less than 50% chance to get to that level and plenty of super talents have fallen away for various reasons. He could be the next Bont but he could be the next Stringer or O'Meara.

I don’t see Holmes being as good as the Pendlebury, Selwood, Cripps, Bont, Neale types. But I sure can see it with Lalor.

In the end you could have worse youth but pinch a flag anyway and we don’t. You seem to trade in better players than we do.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Yes this to me is the difference between the two of our clubs rebuilds imo.

Unless I’m incorrect I believe Holmes is your current best “youth” player.

For us it’s Lalor atm. But then we have Smillie who was rated about equal as Lalor coming into the draft and then we have 3 top 5 picks coming over two years. That could also be similar. Plus H Reid as a possible trade target.

Just from pure probability I think we’ll have multiple players that are better than your best players later on. That to me is what I think makes us have better future. But who knows, it’s a gamble.

Better make sure they're more Cotchin and Martin than Oakley-Nicholls, Vickery, Conca and Tambling.

I assume Carlton won a tonne of flags with Murphy, Gibbs, Kreuzer, etc?

 

[PhatBoy]

Lalor has played one game.
And was excellent, make no mistake. But so was Tom Hawkins in his first few outings (and obviously turned out to be an all time great so on that score if Lalor becomes that good it’s clearly a win) but he took 5 seasons to even establish himself as the main player in his role.
Matt Rowell was best on ground in his first three matches and then slipped back to the back for a couple of seasons before now, over 80 games into his career, becoming the player he threatened to be early on.
Being THAT good THAT early can mean any number of things: being a career long gun, being promising but fading only to come back again later, or just fading back to the pack altogether. At any rate, it’s as good a start as he could hope for so you can’t as more than that, at least.

I’ll give you a name who is every chance of being as good as either Holmes or Lalor, although his ultimate role may be different to both, and he has started his career a bit later than both: Lawson Humphries.

The kid has not missed a beat in any match he’s played to date.

 

[PhatBoy]

I don’t see Holmes being as good as the Pendlebury, Selwood, Cripps, Bont, Neale types. But I sure can see it with Lalor.

In the end you could have worse youth but pinch a flag anyway and we don’t. You seem to trade in better players than we do.

Well he’s not going to be the same TYPE of player as most of those guys anyway unless he bulks up considerably. Pendlebury maybe the most likely but the others are bigger and more physical. That doesn’t mean he can’t be as good. He’s certainly quicker.

 

[Delisted]

I see Holmes becoming a solid Nick Daffy type. Good on him.

 

[Footy Smarts]

I see Holmes becoming a solid Nick Daffy type. Good on him.

I see him more as a Mitch Thorp type.

 

[Delisted]

I see him more as a Mitch Thorp type.

You better hope not. Thorpe didn’t end up doing to well.

 

[Footy Smarts]

You better hope not. Thorpe didn’t end up doing to well.

Didn't he? My mistake.

At least we only burnt pick 20 in a weak draft on Holmes. What happened in Thorp's draft?

 

[Delisted]

Didn't he? My mistake.

At least we only burnt pick 20 in a weak draft on Holmes. What happened in Thorp's draft?

You’re bringing Thorp up, do your research. You’re already on the internet ‘Footy Smarts’

 

[JustEatIt]

Well he’s not going to be the same TYPE of player as most of those guys anyway unless he bulks up considerably. Pendlebury maybe the most likely but the others are bigger and more physical. That doesn’t mean he can’t be as good. He’s certainly quicker.

If you were to bet do you think he’ll be as good?

This will most likely be your best player so it’s important and he’s mainly a winger. Do teams win flags with this calibre of player as their best?

 

[JustEatIt]

Better make sure they're more Cotchin and Martin than Oakley-Nicholls, Vickery, Conca and Tambling.

I assume Carlton won a tonne of flags with Murphy, Gibbs, Kreuzer, etc?

One just got a rising star nom in his first game. Looks good so far.

 

[JustEatIt]

Lalor has played one game.
And was excellent, make no mistake. But so was Tom Hawkins in his first few outings (and obviously turned out to be an all time great so on that score if Lalor becomes that good it’s clearly a win) but he took 5 seasons to even establish himself as the main player in his role.
Matt Rowell was best on ground in his first three matches and then slipped back to the back for a couple of seasons before now, over 80 games into his career, becoming the player he threatened to be early on.
Being THAT good THAT early can mean any number of things: being a career long gun, being promising but fading only to come back again later, or just fading back to the pack altogether. At any rate, it’s as good a start as he could hope for so you can’t as more than that, at least.

I’ll give you a name who is every chance of being as good as either Holmes or Lalor, although his ultimate role may be different to both, and he has started his career a bit later than both: Lawson Humphries.

The kid has not missed a beat in any match he’s played to date.

Lalor focused on Cricket and chose AFL last minute. Still did enough for pick 1 and rising star nom in first game. The sky is the limit.

 

[Mr Meow]

I see Holmes becoming a solid Nick Daffy type. Good on him.

Picked up coaches votes more times than any Hawk in 2024.

BnF in a prelim year also counts for more than Duke's "BnF in a massacre by Kenny's aeroplanes" season.

 

[Mr Meow]

Good to see Falcon back under his 500th alias.

 

[Delisted]

Picked up coaches votes more times than any Hawk in 2024.

BnF in a prelim year also counts for more than Duke's "BnF in a massacre by Kenny's aeroplanes" season.

Yes. A solid player. You’re arguing with ghosts. He’s the Cats best ‘21 -26’ year old. I even have him on the half back flank of my SuperCoach team.

Relax a bit. Not everyone is trying hurt your feelings

 

[Mr Meow]

Yes. A solid player. You’re arguing with ghosts. He’s the Cats best ‘21 -26’ year old. I even have him on the half back flank of my SuperCoach team.

Relax a bit. Not everyone is trying hurt your feelings

You're not a ghost. Never put yourself down like that again.

While you're at it, try not to mistake a bit of banter for someone having their "feelings hurt". Otherwise it comes across as you failing to be relaxed.

Please take this advice constructively. It is not intended to upset you.

 

[Delisted]

You're not a ghost. Never put yourself down like that again.

While you're at it, try not to mistake a bit of banter for someone having their "feelings hurt". Otherwise it comes across as you failing to be relaxed.

Please take this advice constructively. It is not intended to upset you.

The self indulgent irony of this.

 

[PhatBoy]

Lalor focused on Cricket and chose AFL last minute. Still did enough for pick 1 and rising star nom in first game. The sky is the limit.

He’s played both throughout. And excelled, mind you, but he’s always played football as well.

 

[Mr Meow]

The self indulgent irony of this.

A label that appropriately fits every post of yours when you interact with me. Congratulations on another example of lacking self awareness.