Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Footy Smarts]

How many coaches votes did they get in your losses?

They haven't had anywhere near as many chances as the Richmond players

But Geelong votes in losses.

Vs Melbourne - Holmes 8, Z Guthrie 6.
Vs Port - Z Guthrie 3, Stengle 2, Holmes 1.
Vs GWS - Holmes 5, Stengle 2.
Vs Sydney - Cameron 1.

 

[Morro]

That's literally what every Cats supporter has been saying the entire time this thread has been open.

I'm glad it's taken the best part of a year for us to finally get there.

The whole argument has been Richmond will likely have some youth worthy of getting excited about soon enough...but you're fighting a losing battle trying to pump up the tyres of this current group.

It hasn't stopped you (amongst others) coming in here most weeks trying to do so though.

If you had just waited until next year when you've got a number 1 pick running around amongst other highly touted kids, it would be easier to take things a bit more seriously.

I have never talked our kids up as being stars, I have been clear that they are not as bad as many of you suggest. There are some good kids coming through a tough year for kids to shine, but we lack STAR potential kids given our recent success.

 

[Sttew]

I like DeKoning and Knevit looks competitive but they are a long way from what Blicavs offers the Team

Someone on radio said it won't be until Blicavs has retired that we appreciate just how important a player he was. The good news is that because he started playing football late in life he should still have a few years left in the tank

 

[Cdog71]

Someone on radio said it won't be until Blicavs has retired that we appreciate just how important a player he was. The good news is that because he started playing football late in life he should still have a few years left in the tank

He is a great Football story for mine…as an elite athlete in another discipline to be able to learn to play so many roles well it’s incredible.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

This season:

Bolton, Balta, Taranto, Hopper, Graham, Rioli, Baker, Miller and the other under 28s have had 17 games between them where they have recorded coaches votes: 66 votes in total.

Holmes, Stengle, Miers, Zuthrie, Bowes, Dempsey, SDK, Close, Miers, Bruhn and O.Henry have had 33 games between them where they have recorded coaches votes: 167 votes in total.

Quite a big difference in output. And that's including your "super elite" 24-27 year old cohort.

Let's go back to this.

Your guys are doing fine with basically everything going well around them. There is no arguing they are doing well collectively.

But for you to downplay/ignore the point that Richmond's 27yo and under vote count isn't heavily affected by the injury toll is just silly.

Both Hopper(the last twice) and Taranto( the last 3 times) they have played whole seasons not disrupted by injuries they returned 179 votes from 73 games(Taranto) and 96 votes from 46 games(Hopper). They are over 2+ votes per game players if fully fit and not disrupted. At this stage of the season you would expect a combined 75 or more votes from them if they had played every game unhampered, rather than the 15 votes they have accumulated between them in 2024.

Bolton established himself the previous 2 seasons as a 2.4 votes per game player is down to 1.7 this year but if Richmond was winning its share of games he would have an extra 10 votes expected.

So there is a likely 70 or more votes from our deficit wiped right there without our list being any better or yours any worse, just by levelling up the injury toll. Graham in his last uninterrupted season of a full pre-season was a vote a game player.

Dan Rioli has 3 votes this year but won a vote a game the last 2 seasons. He is no worse player. Short was similar, running just under a vote a game the last few years has just 5 this year.

So this is the one and only reason for the great vote disparity.

 

[Cdog71]

6 Geelong players aged 23 or under who have recorded coaches votes this season.

Is it 6 or 5

You mean when they didn't play well? Not as many. Shocking, I know.

Yes, very clever though I’m fairly certain it has happened that players on the team that didn’t score the most have actually played quite well.

So under the age of 23..
Shall I repeat the question?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

They are your top 10 and half wouldn't make Geelong's best 22.

The only one who would be in any doubt would be Ross, who has a similar status at Richmond.

 

[The Casey Cat]

He is a great Football story for mine…as an elite athlete in another discipline to be able to learn to play so many roles well it’s incredible.

No doubt to me that the loss of what he provides (and has for a while) is going to be harder to cover than anyone else. Selwood, Danger, Hawk, Stew, whoever. All better known but possibly no more important than Blicavs has been.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

No doubt to me that the loss of what he provides (and has for a while) is going to be harder to cover than anyone else. Selwood, Danger, Hawk, Stew, whoever. All better known but possibly no more important than Blicavs has been.

126 teams have won Premierships in the competition without Blicavs in their team. Cats won 3 in 6 seasons just before he debuted, and 1 in 11 seasons since he debuted.

Some perspective.

 

[The Casey Cat]

126 teams have won Premierships in the competition without Blicavs in their team. Cats won 3 in 6 seasons just before he debuted, and 1 in 11 seasons since he debuted.

Some perspective.

And absolutely none of it is going to make him or what he's offered any easier. CD able to acknowledge that. Unsurprised your more interested in being an ignorant clown than understanding it.

 

[Cdog71]

No doubt to me that the loss of what he provides (and has for a while) is going to be harder to cover than anyone else. Selwood, Danger, Hawk, Stew, whoever. All better known but possibly no more important than Blicavs has been.

Maybe, there’s no doubt it’s because of Scott and the FD and it’s suited Scott.
He’s always up to something the way he coaches and open to new ideas.
The only role he that doesn’t seem to suit him is as a Fwd.

Scott is good at doing things to unbalance the Oppo playing Players in different spots.
As opposed to like a Brisbane…you know exactly where everyone is going to be lining up.

 

[The Casey Cat]

Maybe, there’s no doubt it’s because of Scott and the FD and it’s suited Scott.
He’s always up to something the way he coaches and open to new ideas.
The only role he that doesn’t seem to suit him is as a Fwd.

Scott is good at doing things to unbalance the Oppo playing Players in different spots.
As opposed to like a Brisbane…you know exactly where everyone is going to be lining up.

Yes. CS can frustrate us at times. Try to be a little too clever and perhaps play favs (all coaches probably do, they're human after all). But a number of opposition coaches even before 2022 have said he's about the most difficult coach to come up against. What you have said is probably why.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

And absolutely none of it is going to make him or what he's offered any easier. CD able to acknowledge that. Unsurprised your more interested in being an ignorant clown than understanding it.

I just don't believe you have trouble "replacing" players. New and different players come in and bring new types of value to a team. For the same price as Blicavs you might get a specialist ruck, or strong mid-forward for instance. The player doesn't have to be able to do exactly what Blicavs can do to bring a similar level of value to the team.

 

[Mr Meow]

Let's go back to this.

Your guys are doing fine with basically everything going well around them. There is no arguing they are doing well collectively.

But for you to downplay/ignore the point that Richmond's 27yo and under vote count isn't heavily affected by the injury toll is just silly.

Both Hopper(the last twice) and Taranto( the last 3 times) they have played whole seasons not disrupted by injuries they returned 179 votes from 73 games(Taranto) and 96 votes from 46 games(Hopper). They are over 2+ votes per game players if fully fit and not disrupted. At this stage of the season you would expect a combined 75 or more votes from them if they had played every game unhampered, rather than the 15 votes they have accumulated between them in 2024.

Bolton established himself the previous 2 seasons as a 2.4 votes per game player is down to 1.7 this year but if Richmond was winning its share of games he would have an extra 10 votes expected.

So there is a likely 70 or more votes from our deficit wiped right there without our list being any better or yours any worse, just by levelling up the injury toll. Graham in his last uninterrupted season of a full pre-season was a vote a game player.

Dan Rioli has 3 votes this year but won a vote a game the last 2 seasons. He is no worse player. Short was similar, running just under a vote a game the last few years has just 5 this year.

So this is the one and only reason for the great vote disparity.

I'm wondering when, if ever, we are going to see the GWS Hopper. Cause he hasn't showed up to Richmond yet.

Even Taranto and Bolton's 1.73 and 1.78 coaches votes per game this season are low for players that talented (last year it was 2.74 and 2.44 per game), in their prime. That really isn't much above the corpse of Dangerfield at 1.57 per game, or rookie picked Miers at 1.69 per game. Young Holmes is speeding along at 2.81 per game. Cameron in a down year is going at 2.87.

Bolton's patchy form has contributed to Richmond being less competitive, it isn't that he is performing at the same level and the wins are not appearing thus he is ineligible. Likewise Taranto. Obviously Martin replicated the first half of 2023 form instead of his late burst in the second - and that is a dreadful form line.

Short hasn't been great.

Rioli probably could've had a few more votes, but even Zuthrie in a winning team and playing well individually hasn't received that many this year.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I'm wondering when, if ever, we are going to see the GWS Hopper. Cause he hasn't showed up to Richmond yet.

Even Taranto and Bolton's 1.73 and 1.78 coaches votes per game this season are low for players that talented (last year it was 2.74 and 2.44 per game), in their prime. That really isn't much above the corpse of Dangerfield at 1.57 per game, or rookie picked Miers at 1.69 per game. Young Holmes is speeding along at 2.81 per game. Cameron in a down year is going at 2.87.

Bolton's patchy form has contributed to Richmond being less competitive, it isn't that he is performing at the same level and the wins are not appearing thus he is ineligible. Likewise Taranto. Obviously Martin replicated the first half of 2023 form instead of his late burst in the second - and that is a dreadful form line.

Short hasn't been great.

Rioli probably could've had a few more votes, but even Zuthrie in a winning team and playing well individually hasn't received that many this year.

Give us a report on how many covo's per game all these Cats players got last year hen you guys had a few injuries and some disruption due to injury....compared to this year:

Miers
Stengle
Bowes
Holmes
O Henry
DeKoning
Bruhn

How many last year and how many this year for each of those?

 

[Mr Meow]

Give us a report on how many covo's per game all these Cats players got last year hen you guys had a few injuries and some disruption due to injury....compared to this year:

Miers
Stengle
Bowes
Holmes
O Henry
DeKoning
Bruhn

How many last year and how many this year for each of those?

You are actually proving my point, without realising it.

Last year we were still reliant on our veterans. Stewart, Cameron, Dangerfield and Hawkins were big coaches votes getters.

Players like Zuthrie and Miers admittedly did better in the B&F than they did CV's. But they, Holmes, Stengle, Bowes et al. have upped their CV numbers this season.

Anyway, if you want our 27 and unders total coaches votes in 2023 (a poor year), it was 116. For Richmond this season, it is so far 66.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

You are actually proving my point, without realising it.

Last year we were still reliant on our veterans. Stewart, Cameron, Dangerfield and Hawkins were big coaches votes getters.

Players like Zuthrie and Miers admittedly did better in the B&F than they did CV's. But they, Holmes, Stengle, Bowes et al. have upped their CV numbers this season.

Anyway, if you want our 27 and unders total coaches votes in 2023 (a poor year), it was 116. For Richmond this season, it is so far 66.

And we have 6 games left. And we are bottom where you guys had parity wins v losses.

And most of our most likely to capture votes players have missed serious chunks of the season.

2022 when we had a reasonable run with injuries(though obviously missing Dusty for most of the season) how did our 27 and under players go?

222 votes gained by players 27yo and under in 2022 over the whole season of course, in a 23 game season, including the final. And we have added Hopper and Taranto in the age group.

So it seems continuity and fitness makes a very big difference to both lists.

 

[STPer18]

 

[Mr Meow]

And we have 6 games left. And we are bottom where you guys had parity wins v losses.

And most of our most likely to capture votes players have missed serious chunks of the season.

2022 when we had a reasonable run with injuries(though obviously missing Dusty for most of the season) how did our 27 and under players go?

222 votes gained by players 27yo and under in 2022 over the whole season of course, in a 23 game season, including the final. And we have added Hopper and Taranto in the age group.

So it seems continuity and fitness makes a very big difference to both lists.

Nope. It seems that our veterans have declined and a whole bunch of players aged 20-26 years old have stepped up with career best form, after starting to last year (a couple more reflected in B&F than coaches votes in 2023).

I already did a meta analysis on the number of Richmond games missed from proven vote getters this season. It really isn't much. Don't worry, maybe Graham, Hopper and co will really bounce back next season. Rioli and Baker are halfway out the door. Bolton, Young and Taranto have had seasons of reversion rather than improvement. Who has actually improved? Maybe Miller? Mansell? Solid C grade citizens.

 

[Mr Meow]

Meteoric Rise where are the young, 3 game Tigers having breakout moments like this? We had it with Dempsey too. 2 years ago it was SDK and Holmes. Stengle and Miers have become some of the best forward pocket and high half forwards respectively in the league, from obscurity. Zuthrie has gone from a laughing stock to our most reliable defender, so much so that we can now release Stewart the midfield.

Neale and O.Henry have had solid scoreboard impact. Conway showed some good signs in the ruck, he just needs his body to let him have a proper run at it.

For Richmond there is still big potential in Bolton (despite inconsistency) and Balta. Young Campbell has shown some signs and Ralphsmith is no longer a dud. Maybe Ross will turn into a Stengle/Miers type contributor. It'll be interesting to see.

 

[ChairmanZia]

Nope. It seems that our veterans have declined and a whole bunch of players aged 20-26 years old have stepped up with career best form, after starting to last year (a couple more reflected in B&F than coaches votes in 2023).

I already did a meta analysis on the number of Richmond games missed from proven vote getters this season. It really isn't much. Don't worry, maybe Graham, Hopper and co will really bounce back next season. Rioli and Baker are halfway out the door. Bolton, Young and Taranto have had seasons of reversion rather than improvement. Who has actually improved? Maybe Miller? Mansell? Solid C grade citizens.

Those 20 - 26 are playing with the likes of tuohy, dangerfield, cameron, duncan, stewart still running the show...

Don't think that you can keep this up indefinitely, no amount of free agents and big names can replace generational cohort required to maintain a premiership team.

There is nothing special to winning flags, get 3, 4 A+ graders, then you get amount 15 - 18 best fitting support players, you are then left with 1 or 2 spots to 'develop' youngsters. Geelong is simply following formula better than hawthorn, richmond, nothing special.

 

[Mr Meow]

Those 20 - 26 are playing with the likes of tuohy, dangerfield, cameron, duncan, stewart still running the show...

Don't think that you can keep this up indefinitely, no amount of free agents and big names can replace generational cohort required to maintain a premiership team.

There is nothing special to winning flags, get 3, 4 A+ graders, then you get amount 15 - 18 best fitting support players, you are then left with 1 or 2 spots to 'develop' youngsters. Geelong is simply following formula better than hawthorn, richmond, nothing special.

Running the show? You can't be talking about Tuohy and Duncan on their last legs. Hawkins legs already left him - likewise Bews and Stanley - and Blicavs is nearing that level too.

Dangerfield has missed half the season and then plays about half a match when his hammies let him.

Stewart and Cameron's form fell off a cliff for 6 weeks. But yes we are reliant on those two 31 year olds playing something near their best footy.

On the one hand you say it's nothing special, on the other you say it can't be kept up indefinitely. Nobody is even claiming that Geelong won't fall down the ladder. Merely that there are some good signs from youngsters and players in the first half of their careers, as a number of veterans have basically reached their last legs. Nothing more, nothing less. Is it okay to be happy enough with that?

 

[ChairmanZia]

Running the show? You can't be talking about Tuohy and Duncan on their last legs. Hawkins legs already left him - likewise Bews and Stanley - and Blicavs is nearing that level too.

Dangerfield has missed half the season and then plays about half a match when his hammies let him.

Stewart and Cameron's form fell off a cliff for 6 weeks. But yes we are reliant on those two 31 year olds playing something near their best footy.

On the one hand you say it's nothing special, on the other you say it can't be kept up indefinitely. Nobody is even claiming that Geelong won't fall down the ladder. Merely that there are some good signs from youngsters and players in the first half of their careers, as a number of veterans have basically reached their last legs. Nothing more, nothing less. Is it okay to be happy enough with that?

And that's the problem, you need to fall to the absolute bottom just as we humans need to get very sick sometimes.

In both cases, the system can get a chance to do a total reset and rebuild.

Of course for geelong, that won't be allowed to happen for a club that's very old but can be good enough for top 8 and top 4 sometimes...to the detriment of future.

All this will simply result in a forced blood letting in around 2027 - 2030 as you guys trade out a lot of the midtier players for draft picks. In that particular case, it's a forced rebuild instead of a pro-active rebuild.

 

[Mr Meow]

And that's the problem, you need to fall to the absolute bottom just as we humans need to get very sick sometimes.

In both cases, the system can get a chance to do a total reset and rebuild.

Of course for geelong, that won't be allowed to happen for a club that's very old but can be good enough for top 8 and top 4 sometimes...to the detriment of future.

All this will simply result in a forced blood letting in around 2027 - 2030 as you guys trade out a lot of the midtier players for draft picks. In that particular case, it's a forced rebuild instead of a pro-active rebuild.

Fair enough. Enjoy the good signs each season as they come, I say. 2030 will arrive when it arrives. I'm not actually our list manager.

 

[tiger_tough]

Meteoric Rise where are the young, 3 game Tigers having breakout moments like this? We had it with Dempsey too. 2 years ago it was SDK and Holmes. Stengle and Miers have become some of the best forward pocket and high half forwards respectively in the league, from obscurity. Zuthrie has gone from a laughing stock to our most reliable defender, so much so that we can now release Stewart the midfield.

Neale and O.Henry have had solid scoreboard impact. Conway showed some good signs in the ruck, he just needs his body to let him have a proper run at it.

For Richmond there is still big potential in Bolton (despite inconsistency) and Balta. Young Campbell has shown some signs and Ralphsmith is no longer a dud. Maybe Ross will turn into a Stengle/Miers type contributor. It'll be interesting to see.

Well Steely Green would've been next in line for the nom. He kicked 3 goals in his 3rd game V GWS, in the worst forward line in the worst team....not loose man in defence.

Not having a crack, that young fella was excellent and looks like a gem