Review Round 3, 2025 - Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong

[Dalions]

Probably didn't phrase it correctly, so let me have another shot:

I think that the boys are being coached to not run at 100% in the first half, saving their best for the second half. Still remaining competitive enough to not lose by 100 points, but not to go all out. Worked for the Pies a few years ago, and it seems to be something we are trying.

Although I think Matthew Lloyd is as much of a footy mind as a rock with sunglasses claiming he's weather man, I think he made a good point about the boys not running the start of games as they should.

As I said in the post you quoted, I don't think there is a whole bunch to take out of this game, but I think the Richmond game will give us a better idea for what to expect for the rest of 2025.

Still don’t see it!
We went into the game with a plan, it didn’t work, changed it up at half time and played better as a result.
Win win

 

[Elixuh]

I often forget to do this but on Saturday night I remembered to take screenshots of the stats page on the AFL app at the end of each quarter. Without spending squillions on Champion Data subscriptions it seems to be the only way to get quarter-by-quarter breakdowns. Seems worthwhile to look at this game in such a light, given the way things changed after half time. Some of this data also comes from WheeloRatings - thanks Andrew!

The key takeouts for me are:

• The sheer domination of territory we had in the 3rd quarter. 20 inside 50s to 4, including 5 marks inside 50 after taking none in the entire 1st half.
• In the 3rd quarter we were able to convert 20 of our 28 possession chains into inside 50s. This 71% is an enormous figure - most sides hover just below 50%.
• Our 56% for the whole match is also excellent and says that we were able to string long possession chains together regularly - an endorsement of the performance of our midfield and defence.
• Inside 50 efficiency was low for both teams - 36% for us and 31% for Geelong. This was probably to be expected given the conditions, but we would want to get this back up towards 50% and certainly over 40% going forward.
• Geelong were able to generate relatively easy shots at goal in the 1st quarter (3.95 expected points per shot), before we returned serve in the last quarter (3.73).
• Geelong made the most of what were not high quality scoring opportunities in the 2nd quarter, scoring at 42% above expected.
• We overused handball massively in the 2nd quarter, with our kick to handball ratio falling to just 1.32. Some teams like to go at this sort of rate, but it's very out of character for us.
• We completely reversed this in the 3rd quarter, going at 2.96 kicks for every handball which is very high even for us.
• We also took more marks in the 3rd quarter than in the entire 1st half - another clear sign we were able to get our game up and going again.
• We had more bounces. This is virtually unheard of.

Here's a bit of a numbers salad with these key points highlighted in maroon.

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		Total
	BL	GE	BL	GE	BL	GE	BL	GE	BL	GE
EFFICIENCY
Clearances	11	12	8	14	10	9	16	8	45	43
Intercepts	15	14	18	20	18	12	17	18	68	64
Total possession chains	30	28	28	36	28	24	34	29	120	117
Inside 50s	14	18	14	16	20	4	19	10	67	48
Chain conversion (possession --> inside 50)	47%	64%	50%	44%	71%	17%	56%	34%	56%	41%
Shots at goal	6	6	3	6	9	0	6	3	24	15
Inside 50 efficiency (inside 50 --> shot)	43%	33%	21%	38%	45%	0%	32%	30%	36%	31%
Expected score	17.2	23.7	8.7	17.6	28.7	0.0	22.4	7.6	79.1	50.8
Expected score per shot	2.87	3.95	2.91	2.93	3.19	N/A	3.73	2.53	3.30	3.39
Score (not including rushed behinds)	2-1 (13)	3-3 (21)	1-0 (6)	4-1 (25)	4-3 (27)	0-0 (0)	3-3 (21)	2-1 (13)	10-7 (67)	9-5 (59)
Goal kicking accuracy (Score vs Expected Score)	-24%	-11%	-31%	+42%	-6%	N/A	-6%	+71%	-15%	+16%
GAME STYLE
Kicks	54	53	45	63	74	44	59	59	232	219
Handballs	26	22	34	24	25	23	30	32	115	101
Kick-Handball Ratio	2.08	2.41	1.32	2.62	2.96	1.91	1.97	1.84	2.02	2.17
Marks	20	18	10	22	41	17	22	20	93	77
Contested marks	1	3	1	1	1	2	1	1	4	7
Marks inside 50	0	4	0	4	5	0	2	2	7	10
Tackles	17	22	19	17	10	21	23	17	69	77
Tackles inside 50	4	10	5	6	1	0	6	5	16	21
Territory control (Inside 50s + marks inside 50 + tackles inside 50)	18	32	19	26	26	4	27	17	90	79
Bounces	1	2	0	1	6	1	1	1	8	5

Great summary as always

 

[BrisVegasDru]

One thing no one has commented on is that once again, late in the game, the cats get a charity decision costing a goal.

Remember Bailey's holding the ball and Hawkins' plunge down at the cattery.

That ten metre mark. Grrrrrr

10 METRES! thought it was 12 feet, but the commentators hardly said anything did they..

 

[buttermuffs]

Probably didn't phrase it correctly, so let me have another shot:

I think that the boys are being coached to not run at 100% in the first half, saving their best for the second half. Still remaining competitive enough to not lose by 100 points, but not to go all out. Worked for the Pies a few years ago, and it seems to be something we are trying.

Although I think Matthew Lloyd is as much of a footy mind as a rock with sunglasses claiming he's weather man, I think he made a good point about the boys not running the start of games as they should.

As I said in the post you quoted, I don't think there is a whole bunch to take out of this game, but I think the Richmond game will give us a better idea for what to expect for the rest of 2025.

Fagan said in the presser that they were very focused on playing wet weather footy after last year we lost because we didn’t play it. He said at halftime to stuff it and play dry weather footy and they did and it worked since it wasn’t as wet.

Fairly simple explanation.

 

[StevoJenkins]

Fagan said in the presser that they were very focused on playing wet weather footy after last year we lost because we didn’t play it. He said at halftime to stuff it and play dry weather footy and they did and it worked since it wasn’t as wet.

Fairly simple explanation.

I'm just pointing out what I noticed over three games. You don't have to agree with what I clarified, but the follow-up was due to what I thought was being taken out of context.

As per my first post here, if we play differently against Richmond, then the point is moot.

 

[Grasshopper17]

10 METRES! thought it was 12 feet, but the commentators hardly said anything did they..

I've only just started watching the replay and the first thing Howie said when Kath crossed to him was that they couldn't see a thing in the commentary box because the windows kept fogging up.

So it's quite possible they couldn't see anything during the game either and were basically calling it off the telly in their commentary box anyway

Mind you that doesn't explain why the radio people didn't have any trouble.

 

[Tom14]

Coaches votes:

Brisbane v Geelong​

9 Hugh McCluggage (BL)
7 Will Ashcroft (BL)
5 Harris Andrews (BL)
5 Jack Payne (BL)
3 Max Holmes (GEEL)
1 Dayne Zorko (BL)

 

[Dalions]

Coaches votes:

Brisbane v Geelong​

9 Hugh McCluggage (BL)
7 Will Ashcroft (BL)
5 Harris Andrews (BL)
5 Jack Payne (BL)
3 Max Holmes (GEEL)
1 Dayne Zorko (BL)

Scott very kind.

 

[jonnobackpocket]

One thing no one has commented on is that once again, late in the game, the cats get a charity decision costing a goal.

Remember Bailey's holding the ball and Hawkins' plunge down at the cattery.

That ten metre mark. Grrrrrr

Couple of years earlier Dan Rich tackled Chapman for the most obvious holding the ball of all time(now surpassed by Bailey’s), which was again ignored by the umps and again cost us a win at the dump down in Geelong. There is a history of it- with us on the wrong side of the ledger every time

 

[Sproj]

Seems strange that Zorko only gets 1 vote and Holmes 3.

 

[Tom14]

Bailey's pick up to set up Berry's goal was so good. Didn't realise watching at the pub how good it was.

 

[Denno]

One thing no one has commented on is that once again, late in the game, the cats get a charity decision costing a goal.

Remember Bailey's holding the ball and Hawkins' plunge down at the cattery.

That ten metre mark. Grrrrrr

Bailey's HTB was against Blicavs, and it was Chapman that dived on the ball in (I think) 2013.

There were some blatant pushes in the back that were allowed back in 2022 down there, too.

I can't recall a Hawkins incident?

 

[lionraven]

Fagan said in the presser that they were very focused on playing wet weather footy after last year we lost because we didn’t play it. He said at halftime to stuff it and play dry weather footy and they did and it worked since it wasn’t as wet.

Fairly simple explanation.

That was pretty much the difference. 1st half you would see a lot more soccer attempts and just belting the ball forward for territory. Geelong managed to intercept that easily so our contest wins would get turned over and go back the other way. During the 3rd quarter there appears to be a more obvious effort to pick up and handball the ball out of congestion. Once we got the ball out we also looked to switch or go in-board rather than down the line. That made our F50 entries a lot more dangerous and reduced our turnover/rebound 50s going the other way.

 

[Gadzorks]

Watched the game live, watched it again on Kayo.

I think we are being coached to be bad on purpose in the first half, then we are switching things up in the second half. Don't know if we want to do a Collywobble every week though. Can be due to the bad weather conditions, or first game blues for the Swans game.

I would be concerned if we don't bully Richmond early on - use experience and better skills to kill the game early on. Will need the bye to come quickly if there's still an issue.

Hipwood is not as bad as posters are making him out to be. I think, like the rest of the team, he's being coached to not go 100% until the second half. Watching him live, he's putting work into his opponent and taking him out of the way when needed. We just don't have a Daniher to pick up the slack on the marking front.

Hipwood is also going further up the ground. He's not a contested marking forward, which we are missing, and never has been, so we shouldn't be judging him as such.

Day is a question mark at the present. Has played 2 games in less-than-ideal conditions but will not play for us next year. He doesn't add anything in the forward line, aside from taking a defender.

Levi and Will as a combo are very good. Will need to throw the kitchen sink at them in the next few years. Will is ready to replace Neale when his time is up.

Not going to take too much else out of this game, will see who we go for the Richmond game.
Shagga should come in for Kai, Omac for Fort.

I think it's simply that we have plans a, b and c but we don't have (or the ability to execute) an effective wet weather plan.

I expect it's something we will continue to work on this year and we will end up as the best wet weather team by the end of the year.

 

[Gadzorks]

I've only just started watching the replay and the first thing Howie said when Kath crossed to him was that they couldn't see a thing in the commentary box because the windows kept fogging up.

So it's quite possible they couldn't see anything during the game either and were basically calling it off the telly in their commentary box anyway

Mind you that doesn't explain why the radio people didn't have any trouble.

I was listening to the footy with broden kelly and they talked about BT (I think. One of the channel commentator's anyway) making a crack about channel seven being the only broadcaster with commentators at the ground.. kayo commentator's must work off the vision that we see for at least some of the games. No wonder they are crap sometimes.

They also are very impressed with the Lions., which was nice to listen to.

 

[Grasshopper17]

I can't recall a Hawkins incident?

Yes you can

There were some blatant pushes in the back that were allowed back in 2022 down there, too.

 

[Bucking Beads]

Such a good win on Saturday night.

 

[Denno]

Yes you can

Fair enough - if that's the "Hawkins plunge"!

 

[twhowler]

Fair enough - if that's the "Hawkins plunge"!

From memory hawkins had a massive dive and got paid one

And then he shoved Payne and didn’t get one against him

It broke our back somewhat, we looked a good chance before it happened

The two one point losses were just an outright farce. And in 2013 if the free was paid it would have been two after the siren wins v geelong in one season! Surely unprecedented

 

[Schache_off]

For someone that was probably a bit short on match fitness, was great to see some of the final quarter efforts by Cameron who didn't have the best night. Helped cause a turnover with a desperate tackle/bump on Miers as he kicked the ball which lead to the the Berry goal to seal the game. I imagine that's one of the highlights that the coaches and team really celebrate.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Just finished watching .. the 2nd half was the best footy we've seen this year. Sliced and diced the Cats with precision.

Was happy to see Cam "the explosive one" Rayner get into the game more. Love watching his kicking motion, tis a work of art.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Coaches votes:

Brisbane v Geelong​

9 Hugh McCluggage (BL)
7 Will Ashcroft (BL)
5 Harris Andrews (BL)
5 Jack Payne (BL)
3 Max Holmes (GEEL)
1 Dayne Zorko (BL)

Sounds about right.. Harris and Jack were a brick wall down back.

 

[WheeloRatings]

I often forget to do this but on Saturday night I remembered to take screenshots of the stats page on the AFL app at the end of each quarter. Without spending squillions on Champion Data subscriptions it seems to be the only way to get quarter-by-quarter breakdowns. Seems worthwhile to look at this game in such a light, given the way things changed after half time. Some of this data also comes from @WheeloRatings - thanks Andrew!

Pleasure! I have quarter-by-quarter player and team stats if I can help.

 

[Section 5]

Zorko had another good game. 834 meters gained but his disposal efficiency was a bit off this week.

I noticed he had 13 contested possessions which i thought was high for him since moving to defense.
That is the most contested possessions he has had since moving down back.
Zorkos previous bests were both 10 contested possessions in R14 of 2024 and R10, 2023.
So, he has broken double figures three times since moving to defense. No Lions defender has done that in the timeframe.

In the same timeframe Answerth had 12 in R6, 2024 being the only time with double figures.
Even Starcevich has only broke double figures once in the same timeframe being 10 in R7, of 2023.
Andrews had 13 contested possessions in R2 of 2025. Did not reach double figures the rest of the timeframe.

Lester, Payne, Coleman and McKenna have not reached double figures in that timeframe.

 

[martinson]

Zorko had another good game. 834 meters gained but his disposal efficiency was a bit off this week.

I noticed he had 13 contested possessions which i thought was high for him since moving to defense.
That is the most contested possessions he has had since moving down back.
Zorkos previous bests were both 10 contested possessions in R14 of 2024 and R10, 2023.
So, he has broken double figures three times since moving to defense. No Lions defender has done that in the timeframe.

In the same timeframe Answerth had 12 in R6, 2024 being the only time with double figures.
Even Starcevich has only broke double figures once in the same timeframe being 10 in R7, of 2023.
Andrews had 13 contested possessions in R2 of 2025. Did not reach double figures the rest of the timeframe.

Lester, Payne, Coleman and McKenna have not reached double figures in that timeframe.

Zorks is a freak. Been under estimated his whole career even by our own supporters.

He seems to be loving it in the backline. Fingers crossed he stays fit and well.